基于ARIMA模型的拉萨降水量时间序列分析与预测

应用差分自回归滑动平均模型（ARIMA）模型对西藏拉萨地区1969年至2009年的年降水量资料进行建模分析。建立的模型通过了参数的显著性检验和模型的显著性检验。模型的实证分析表明在短期内模型具有较高的预测精度,ARIMA模型可以较好的应用于降水量的预测,对相关部门采取措施应对自然灾害提供了理论支持。     

Are small-scale field-aligned currents and magnetosheath-like particle precipitation signatures of the same low-altitude cusp?

We examined some 75 observations from the low-altitude Earth orbiting DMSP, Ørsted and CHAMP satellites which were taken in the region of the nominal cusp. Our objective was to determine whether the actually observed cusp locations as inferred from magnetosheath-like particle precipitation (“particle cusp”) and intense small-scale magnetic field variations (“current cusp”), respectively, were identical and were consistent with the statistically expected latitude of the cusp derived from a huge number of charged particle spectrograms (“statistical cusp”).     

球形ZnS纳米粒子的制备和光学性质

用快速均匀沉淀法制备了平均粒径3nm左右的球形ZnS纳米粒子。并且讨论了成长时间，反应温度，体系pH值，反应物浓度和配比对ZnS纳米粒子尺寸的影响。通过XRD，BET，紫外可见吸收光谱表征了ZnS纳米粒子的尺寸、结构和表面态性质。通过红外吸收光谱证明了吸附在ZnS纳米颗粒上的乙酸基起到控制粒子长大和防止团聚的作用。研究了ZnS纳米晶粒的荧光光谱，证实其在425nm处的蓝色发光峰是来源于表面硫空位与锌空位之间的电子-空穴复合跃迁发光。     

喷射沉积制备Al-Zn-Mg-Cu合金大型坯组织性能的研究

利用Ospray公司的喷射沉积设备制备了Al11.3Zn2.4Mg1.1Cu合金,合金挤压成棒材后,经过固溶和时效处理,用万能材料实验机对其进行了力学性能测试,合金的抗拉强度为849 MPa、屈服强度为796 MPa,延伸率为3.3%.透射电镜和扫描电镜对拉伸试样微观组织的研究结果表明,合金微观组织中包括微米级晶粒和纳米级晶粒,合金的强化方式为纳米晶强化、固溶强化以及沉淀强化,拉伸试样的断口分析表明,合金的断裂方式主要为沿晶断裂.     

基于离散小波变换的北方寒区年降水量多时间尺度特征分析

为深入剖析这种多层次时间尺度结构和局部化特征,本文以北方寒区典型城市哈尔滨市为例,运用小波理论,采用morlet小波函数对年降水量序列进行离散小波变换,进而分析其多时间尺度特性,揭示年降水量在不同时间尺度下的小波变换时频特征、丰枯交替变化的周期规律以及未来的发展趋势,为制定科学合理的用水制度提供一定的参考依据。研究结果表明:不同的时间尺度分辨率下,哈尔滨市年降水量序列会表现出不同的周期交替现象,主要存在3,16和28 a左右的周期。     

黄海气象海况对海上发射运载火箭的影响

海上发射运载火箭的实施过程会受到气象海洋环境的影响和制约,气象海洋环境会直接影响海上发射窗口期的选择及发射安全。为避免海上发射在复杂气象海况条件下发生设备重大损坏、窗口长期延后和人员安全事故等问题,通过分析黄海海域波浪场、风场、温度场及降水场的分布特征及变化规律,对基于季节变化特征的海上发射实施阶段及季节性预防趋势进行分析总结,为以后在不同季节极端天气下海上发射运载火箭提供参考。     

Using S-band dual polarized radar for convective/stratiform rain indexing and the correspondence with AMSR-E GSFC profiling algorithm

The separation of rain types in convective and stratiform regimes has long been a goal in microwave remote sensing of precipitation research. In this essence, a dual polarized radar based indexing scheme that provides information on convective and stratiform (C/S) rain regimes has been presented in correspondence with advanced microwave scanning radiometer – earth observing system (AMSR-E) GSFC profiling algorithm estimate of convective rain percentage. The dual polarized radar based C/S indexing scheme first retrieves the normalized gamma drop size distribution parameters, median volume drop diameter (D₀) and concentration parameter (N_w), from dual polarized radar measurements Z_H and Z_DR, representing reflectivity and differential reflectivity respectively, by means of the genetic programming approach. Next, the C/S rain index is calculated based on the formulation of an empirical relation in N_w–D₀ domain. The scheme has been inspected and applied on measurements from the S-band Chilbolton dual polarized radar. A considerable number of “coincident” cases from the radar and the AMSR-E observations are investigated. It has been revealed that the dual polarized radar based C/S rain indexing is in a similar pattern with the AMSR-E GSFC profiling algorithm estimate of convective rain percentage. Generally, as C/S rain index value increases, which signifies a stratiform to convective trend, the AMSR-E convective rain percentage also increases.     

The high-latitude ionosphere structure on 22 March, 1979 magnetic storm from multi-satellite and ground-based observation

Variations in the high-latitude ionosphere structure during March 22, 1979 geomagnetic storm are examined. Electron density Ne and temperature Te from the Cosmos-900 satellite, NmF2, Ne and He⁺ from the ISS-b satellite, precipitation of soft electrons from the Intercosmos-19 satellite, and the global picture of the auroral electron precipitation from the DMSP, TIROS and P78 satellites are used. These multi-satellite databases allow us to investigate the storm-time variations in the locations of the following ionospheric structures: the day-time cusp, the equatorial boundary of the diffuse auroral precipitation (DPB), the main ionospheric trough (MIT), the day-time trough, the ring ionospheric trough (RIT) and the light ions trough (LIT). The variations in NmF2, Ne, He⁺ and Te in the high-latitude ionosphere for the different local time sectors are analyzed also. The features of the high-latitude ionospheric response to a strong magnetic storm are described.     

Simultaneous observations of Pc 1 micropulsation activity and stratospheric electrodynamic perturbations on 27 January 2003

The 2nd Polar Patrol Balloon campaign (2nd-PPB) was carried out at Syowa Station in Antarctica during 2002–2003. Identical stratospheric balloon payloads were launched as close together in time as allowed by weather conditions to constitute a cluster of balloons during their flights. A very pronounced negative ion conductivity enhancement was observed at 32 km in the stratosphere below the auroral zone on 27 January 2003 from 1500 to 2200 UT. During this event, the conductivity doubled for an interval of about 7 h. This perturbation was associated with an extensive Pc 1 or Pi 1 wave event that was observed by several Antarctic ground stations, balloon PPB 10, and the Polar spacecraft. No appreciable X-ray precipitation was observed in association with this event, which would point to >60 Mev proton precipitation as a possible magnetosphere–stratosphere coupling mechanism responsible for the conductivity enhancement. Such precipitation is consistent with the wave data. During the latter half of the event, E_z was briefly positive. There was a tropospheric Southern Ocean storm system underneath the balloon during this interval. If the event was associated with this storm system and not energetic proton precipitation, the observations imply an electrified Southern Ocean storm and major perturbations in stratospheric conductivity driven by a tropospheric disturbance. This event represents a poorly understood source for global circuit current. Precipitating energetic proton data from Akebono and NOAA POES spacecraft show significant >16 MeV precipitation was occurring at the location of PPB 8 but not PPB 10, suggesting that proton precipitation was, in fact, the responsible coupling mechanism.