Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

The Earth orbital environment is drastically changing due to an intensification of the space activities. In particular, several projects of large constellations, proposed for the next years for communications purpose like global internet access, Internet of Things, or for Earth observations, will lead to the deployment of several thousands of new satellites at an unprecedented rate. It is a crucial challenge for space traffic management, which will deal with a great number of satellite conjunctions, potentially causing a collision with damaging consequences for the constellation itself and the space environment sustainability.In this paper, we investigate the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability for each referenced constellation. For this purpose, we compute the orbital evolution of satellites in different constellations during the lifecycle, from the deployment to the decommissioning, and we apply the CUBE algorithm and the Foster method to assess the collision probability with the background space debris population assuming a constant uncertainty in position. We show the variation of risk defined by the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability as a function of the proposed configuration. In particular, satellites of the Iridium and Kuiper constellation, but also satellite of the Telesat constellation on polar orbits are the most exposed at a collision. Moreover, the decommissioning phase contribute for a major part to the final cumulative collision probability.     

详细化学反应机理对预混丙烷钝体熄火模拟影响

航空发动机熄火预测是重要关键问题之一，湍流和化学反应的非线性相互作用使预测非常困难。本文采用大涡模拟（LES）对湍流进行高精度模拟，采用概率密度函数输运方程湍流燃烧模型（TPDF）耦合JL4、Z66和H73三种化学反应机理，对预混丙烷钝体熄火现象和规律进行研究。JL4的反应机理最简单，反应释热快，局部放热高，火焰宽度大，火焰两侧温度梯度大，燃烧更加趋于稳定，无法模拟出熄火状态。H73机理绝热火焰温度低，火焰温度低，回流区中部OH含量高；在近熄火状态，大量CO被氧化，释放热量过高导致无法模拟出熄火现象。Z66机理可以模拟出火焰正常状态，在低当量比下也可以模拟出熄火状态。本文算例中，局部Da数大于1的区域超过35%则会发生熄火。     

A progressive approach to predict shot peening process parameters for forming integral panel of Al7050-T7451

In this paper, a progressive approach to predict the multiple shot peening process parameters for complex integral panel is proposed. Firstly, the invariable parameters in the forming process including shot size, mass flow, peening distance and peening angle are determined according to the empirical and machine type. Then, the optimal value of air pressure for the whole shot peening is selected by the experimental data. Finally, the feeding speed for every shot peening path is predicted by regression equation. The integral panel part with thickness from 2 mm to 5 mm and curvature radius from 3200 mm to 16000 mm is taken as a research object, and four experiments are conducted. In order to design specimens for acquiring the forming data, one experiment is conducted to compare the curvature radius of the plate and stringer-structural specimens, which were peened along the middle of the two stringers. The most striking finding of this experiment is that the outer shape error range is below 3.9%, so the plate specimens can be used in predicting feeding speed of the integral panel. The second experiment is performed and results show that when the coverage reaches the limit of 80%, the minimum feeding speed is 50 mm/s. By this feeding speed, the forming curvature radius of the specimens with different thickness from the third experiment is measured and compared with the research object, and the optimal air pressure is 0.15 MPa. Then, the plate specimens with thickness from 2 mm to 5 mm are peened in the fourth experiment, and the measured curvature radius data are used to calculate the feeding speed of different shot peening path by regressive analysis method. The algorithm is validated by forming a test part and the average deviation is 0.496 mm. It is shown that the approach can realize the forming of the integral panel precisely.     

某型装备能源电池异常爆破故障分析

对一起因电池设计缺陷引发装备战训失利的故障进行分析,重点对电池工作机理和设计缺陷展开解析,明确故障定位,并对国内外装备弹上不同体系电池的优缺点进行比较,旨在为产品维护保障、国产化科研等工作提供参考。     

在二元柔壁自适应风洞中利用面元法进行三元模型实验

简要叙述了在西北工业大学二元柔壁自适应风洞中利用面元法进行二元半机翼模型试验的研究情况，分析了面元法的基本思想和部分试验结果。     

延长热电池寿命的途径探讨

从防空导弹地面电源－－热电池的热设计和工艺角度出发，分析影响电池工作寿命的因素，提出延长电池工作寿命的三条途径：合理控制热电池的内部热量；提高加热片的均匀性；合理选择外保温材料。实践证明，这些途径是可行的。     

均布压力作用各向异性矩形薄板大挠度问题

基于冯·卡门模型，选择中心挠度为摄动参数，利用摄动方法将正交异性矩形薄板大挠问题的非线性偏微分方程组逐级线性化，导出了各级摄动对应的几个线性偏微分方程组，然后再借助变分法求解，得到了均布载荷作用下正交异性矩形薄板的载荷-挠度曲线。     

空间站大型伸展机构的运动稳定性分析

从空间站大型伸展机构的运动特点和系统动力学方程出发，着重分析了该系统的稳定性判据。这一问题又可分为五个方面：姿态-伸展-振动耦合系统的分析方法，复杂大系统的分解集结方法，时滞系统和滞后系统的稳定性问题，Stick-Ship运动对系统对系统稳定性的影响，非线性非定常系数稳定性的一般解。其中还对接触、摩擦、碰撞问题，变拓扑系统，非光滑动力学系统等进行了专门的研究，分析了Lyapunov指数方法在这些特殊系统中的适应性。本文对空间站大型伸展机构的稳定性问题进行了较全面的分析，指出了目前在处理这类复杂大系统时存在的一些难点问题，为其设计和研制工作提出了理论基础。     

小卫星大角度姿态机动控制研究及半实物仿真验证

大角度姿态机动控制技术是高分辨率遥感小卫星的关键技术之一。本文采用瞬时欧拉轴控制算法，在星载计算机原理样机的基础上，考虑反作用飞轮的饱和特性，根据所选择的反作用飞轮和光纤陀螺，在单轴气浮转台上进行半实物仿真验证。仿真结果表明，所设计的定姿与控制算法简单、有效；星载计算机满足控制算法对计算速度的要求。     

大型空间模拟器总体检漏技术

论述了大型空间环境模拟器的总体检漏技术,针对大型模拟器的特点,从设计、加工到安装调试等过程介绍了检漏方法的选择,并着重介绍了氦质谱检漏法可检灵敏度的分析,对大型模拟器的检漏方案进行了全过程的设计.