What Determines the Composition of SEPs in Gradual Events?

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are evidently accelerated by coronal/interplanetary shocks driven by coronal mass ejections. This talk addresses the different factors which determine the composition of the accelerated ions. The first factor is the set of available seed populations including the solar wind core and suprathermal tail, remnant impulsive events from preceding solar flares, and remnant gradual events. The second factor is the fractionation of the seed ions by the injection process, that is, what fraction of the ions are extracted by the shock to participate in diffusive shock acceleration. Injection is a controversial topic since it depends on the detailed electromagnetic structure of the shock transition and the transport of ions in these structured fields, both of which are not well understood or determined theoretically. The third factor is fractionation during the acceleration process, due to the dependence of ion transport in the turbulent electromagnetic fields adjacent to the shock on the mass/charge ratio. Of crucial importance in the last two factors is the magnetic obliquity of the shock. The form of the proton-excited hydromagnetic wave spectrum is also important. Finally, more subtle effects on ion composition arise from the superposition of ion contributions over the time history of the shock along the observer’s magnetic flux tube, and the sequence of flux tubes sampled by the observer.     

威布尔型产品的可靠性评估方法研究

在简要介绍极大拟然和小概率原理的基础上，针对威布尔型产品特征寿命的求取方法在各种文献中没有介绍、经典的双威布尔型串并联系统的可靠性评估方法既繁琐又不精确等情况，详细论述了如何运用威布尔型单机产品的可靠性试验样本求取其特征寿命，如何运用等效折合的方法求取威布尔型串并联系统的可靠性置信下限，最后对某威布尔型发动机系统的可靠性进行了评估,取得了较理想的结果。     

基于ASP的高校田径运动会信息管理系统

田径运动会的编排是一项非常繁琐的工作 ,传统的人工编排操作效率低、准确度低 ,随着体育教学改革的深入 ,田径运动项目的增多 ,为发展高校体育运动 ,提高田径运动会的高科技含量 ,提高教职工、学生的体质 ,结合学校体育工作的实际情况 ,用VisualFoxPro、ASP、VBScript设计了一套高校田径运动会信息管理系统。主要包括网上报名、数据的编排和报表的打印模块。经我院田径运动会的应用表明 ,这一计算机编排系统能有效地减少劳动强度 ,提高数据准确度 ,并能及时输出各种实时数据及报表 ,而且操作简单、灵活、界面友好 ,是高校田径运动会有效的管理软件。     

太阳微波爆发频谱事件

国家天文台1.0-2.0GHz,2.6-3.8GHz太阳射电频谱仪从1994年1月和1996年9月投入观测至2000年4月10日记录到太阳射电爆发分别为297个和316个，取得了高质量的高时间分辨率，高频率分辨率的动态谱资料，为研究耀斑各种尺度的时间及空间演化过程提供了丰富的信息，1998年4月15日的共同事件在时间和频率上显示了丰富的幅度和结构的变化。     

Lift coefficient prediction at high angle of attack using recurrent neural network

In this paper, identification of dynamic stall effect of rotor blade is considered. Recurrent Neural Networks have the ability to identify the nonlinear dynamical systems from training data. This paper describes the use of recurrent neural networks for predicting the coefficient of lift (C_Z) at high angle of attack. In our approach, the coefficient of lift (C_Z) obtained from the experimental results (wind tunnel data) at different mean angle of attack θ_mean is used to train the recurrent neural network. Then the recurrent neural network prediction is compared with experimental ONERA OA212 airfoil data. The time and space complexity required to predict C_Z in the proposed method is less and it is easy to incorporate in any commercially available rotor code.     

Results from the ESA SREM monitors and comparison with existing radiation belt models

The Standard Radiation Environment Monitor (SREM) is a simple particle detector developed for wide application on ESA satellites. It measures high-energy protons and electrons of the space environment with a 20° angular resolution and limited spectral information. Of the ten SREMs that have been manufactured, four have so far flown. The first model on STRV-1c functioned well until an early spacecraft failure. The other three are on-board, the ESA spacecraft INTEGRAL, ROSETTA and PROBA-1. Another model is flying on GIOVE-B, launched in April 2008 with three L-2 science missions to follow: both Herschel and Planck in 2008, and GAIA in 2011). The diverse orbits of these spacecraft and the common calibration of the monitors provides a unique dataset covering a wide range of B-L* space, providing a direct comparison of the radiation levels in the belts at different locations, and the effects of geomagnetic shielding. Data from the PROBA/SREM and INTEGRAL/IREM are compared with existing radiation belt models.     

Statistical study of the time delay of ionospheric TEC storms to geomagnetic storms in Taoyuan,Taiwan

We have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms at a low latitude station Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E), Taiwan using the Dst and TEC data during 126 geomagnetic storms from the year 2002 to 2014. In addition to the known local time dependence of the time delay, the statistics show that the time delay has significant seasonal characteristics, which can be explained within the framework of the seasonal characteristics of the ionospheric TEC. The data also show that there is no correlation between the time delay and the intensity of magnetic storms. As for the solar activity dependence of the time delay, the results show that there is no relationship between the time delay of positive storms and the solar activity, whereas the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity, with correlation coefficient −0.41. Especially, there are two kinds of extreme events: pre-storm response events and long-time delay events. All of the pre-storm response events occurred during 15–20 LT, manifesting the Equator Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) feature at Taoyuan. Moreover, the common features of the pre-storm response events suggest the storm sudden commencement (SSC) and weak geomagnetic disturbance before the main phase onset (MPO) of magnetic storms are two main possible causes of the pre-storm response events. By analyzing the geomagnetic indices during the events with long-time delay, we infer that this kind of events may not be caused by magnetic storms, and they might belong to ionospheric Q-disturbances.     

宁静和重现太阳风中的亚阿尔文波速流

本文例举观测实例说明,在宁静太阳风中或重现太阳风的低速流区,有可能形成行星际亚阿尔文波速流。这种流出现在阿尔文波速异常增强区,并与特定的磁场位形相联系。      

太阳电子事件粒子源区的位置

对ISEE-3的引个太阳电子事件资料,进行了系统地分析。通过Saha平衡模型分别计算了高Fe事件和贫Fe事件源区的平衡温度大小,指出两类事件粒子源区不相重合,高Fe事件的粒子源区位于高色球层,贫Fe事件粒子源区在色球层-日冕之间的过渡区。对高Fe事件和贫Fe事件的形成作了初步的设想。      

Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.