Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

考虑二次流效应的叶片颤振预估方法

采用流线曲率法和Adkins-Smith二次涡模型相结合的方法得到周向非均匀的定常流场, 再与变叶片间相角的变形激盘法相结合发展了考虑二次流效应的三维叶片颤振预估方法, 并用此方法对BF-1-2转子的气弹稳定性进行了分析。结果表明, 考虑二次流效应计算的颤振边界与实验一致。不同二次流与叶片颤振的相关性中尖部漏流涡对叶片气弹稳定性的影响较大。