Development and performance evaluation of tropospheric scintillation model on Ku-band satellite link over Akure,Nigeria

Existing amplitude scintillation prediction models often perform less satisfactorily when deployed outside the regions where they were formulated. This necessitates the need to evaluate the performance of scintillation models developed in one region using data data from other regions while documenting their relative errors. Due to its variation with elevation angle, frequency, other link parameters and meteorological factors, we employed three years (January 2016 to December 2018) of concurrently measured satellite radio beacons and tropospheric weather parameters to develop a location-based amplitude scintillation prediction model over the Earth-space path of Akure (7.17^oN, 5.18^oE), South-western Nigeria. The satellite beacon measurement used Tektronix Y400 NetTek Analyzer at 1 s integration time while meteorological parameters, namely; temperature, pressure and relative humidity were measured using Davis Vantage Vue weather station at 1 min integration time. Comparative study of the model’s performance with nine (9) existing scintillation prediction models indicates that the best and worst performing models, in terms of root mean square error (RMSE), are the Statistical Temperature and Refractivity (STN) and direct physical and statistical prediction (DPSP) models with values 11.48 and 51.03 respectively. Also, worst month analysis indicates that April, with respective enhancement and fade values of 0.88 and 0.90 dB for 0.01% exceedance, is the overall worst calendar month for amplitude scintillation.     

利用遥测数据预报导弹落点的方法

给出利用遥测数据对导弹进行落点预报的方法。根据遥测数据传输多遍的特点，对解码后的ＰＣＭ 数据进行处理，得到误码率很小的数据。然后对头体分离时刻前导弹飞行的状况和遥测数据进行分析，从而对发动机后效误差进行修正，得到较精确的导弹运动参数，最后利用弹道方程预报导弹落点     

用预测法量化防空导弹武器系统效能的研究

针对当前分析人员难于求解防空导弹武器系统总体效能值，提出了一套量化系统效能中的系统能力向量Ｃ的方法。对该方法作了详细的论述，并用该方法量度了一些防空导弹武器系统的总体系统效能。分析得到的结果是令人满意的，从而进一步解决了如何通过较理想的效能模型，全面地预测防空导弹武器系统在给定条件下完成规定任务的能力问题。     

用遥测数据预报导弹落点的误差分析

针对利用遥测数据进行导弹落点预测这一方法 ,分析了误差源 ,在此基础上建立并编写了干扰弹道模型 ,研究讨论了这种方法在进行落点预测时所造成的预测误差。计算结果表明 ,仅仅利用遥测数据进行导弹落点预测有很大的误差 ,必须结合外测手段才能做出较为准确的落点预测     

固体火箭发动机通用药柱的一维准定常内弹道计算

本文提出对任何药型都通用的一维准定常内弹道计算方法和与其相适用的药柱计算方法.解决了药柱和一维准定常内弹道计算的配合问题.用本程序对某实际发动机的内弹道性能进行了计算,将计算结果和用零维燃烧模型计算结果及热试车结果进行了比较.     

测控站点电磁兼容分析与预测技术研究

本文介绍了对测控站点内各测控设备的电磁干扰进行分析和预测的方法。系统采用干扰源与接收机逐对考虑的方式，极大简化了计算。并采用分阶段预测的方法，即分成：快速筛选、幅度筛选、频率筛选和详细预测四个阶段进行逐阶段分析和预测。     

数值模拟技术在热压罐工艺中的应用

随着复合材料和计算机技术的发展,数值模拟技术在复合材料工艺仿真中的应用也日益明显.总结分析了数值模拟技术在复合材料热压罐工艺中的研究进展,包括热压罐内流场仿真、固化放热控制、固化变形预测,以及热隔膜成型过程仿真的应用前景.随着大数据和复合材料自动化、智能化的发展,发展数值模拟技术是大势所趋.     

Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC

Solar activity prediction services started in 1960’s in National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC). As one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China) was set up in 1990’s. Solar Activity Prediction Center (SAPC), as one of the four sub-centers of RWC-China, is located in NAOC. Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC cover short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecast of solar activities. Nowadays, certain prediction models, such as solar X-ray flare model, solar proton event model, solar 10 cm radio flux model, have been established for the practical prediction services. Recently, more and more physical analyses are introduced in the studies of solar activity prediction, such as the magnetic properties of solar active regions and magnetic structure of solar atmosphere. Besides traditional statistics algorithms, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence techniques, such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) method, are employed in the establishment of forecast models. A Web-based integrated platform for solar activity data sharing and forecast distribution is under construction.     

航天产品非金属材料/ 制品贮存寿命评估技术

从非金属材料老化机理与寿命预测模型、老化行为表征技术、贮存环境试验与寿命评估技术等方面,概述了国内外的技术发展和现状,介绍了航天产品用非金属材料及制品贮存寿命评估技术的发展及其应用进展。     

非线性不平衡转子轴承系统周期解的预测

本文提出一种对非线性不平衡转子轴承系统周期解进行预测的新型算法,它利用系统周期解的稳态及瞬态信息,反解雅可比矩阵,实现对系统周期解的预测追踪,并利用反解得出的雅可比矩阵,求得系统周期解的Floquet乘子以判别其非线性稳定性。文中以刚性不平衡转子轴承系统为例,实现了周期解的预测追踪及非线性稳定性判别,说明了新算法的有效性。