Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component _Bz$B_z$ of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of _Bz$B_z$ with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of _Bz$B_z$ in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. The proposed model provides forecasts of potentially dangerous high geomagnetic activity should the interplanetary CME (ICME), the originator of geomagnetic storms, hit the Earth under the most unfavorable configuration of cosmic magnetic fields. We cannot know in advance whether the unfavorable configuration is going to occur or not; we just know that it will occur with the probability of 31%.     

Policy for robust space-based earth science,technology and applications

Satellite remote sensing technology has contributed to the transformation of multiple earth science domains, putting space observations at the forefront of innovation in earth science. With new satellite missions being launched every year, new types of earth science data are being incorporated into science models and decision-making systems in a broad array of organizations. Policy guidance can influence the degree to which user needs influence mission design and when, and ensure that satellite missions serve both the scientific and user communities without becoming unfocused and overly expensive. By considering the needs of the user community early on in the mission-design process, agencies can ensure that satellites meet the needs of multiple constituencies. This paper describes the mission development process in NASA and ESA and compares and contrasts the successes and challenges faced by these agencies as they try to balance science and applications within their missions.     

Photon counting detector for space debris laser tracking and lunar laser ranging

We are reporting on a design, construction and performance of solid state photon counting detector package which has been designed for laser tracking of space debris. The detector has been optimized for top photon detection efficiency and detection delay stability. The active area of the commercially available avalanche photodiode manufactured on Si (SAP500 supplied by Laser Components, Inc.) is circular with a diameter of 500 μm. The newly designed control circuit enables to operate the detection sensor at a broad range of biases 5–50 V above its breakdown voltage of 125 V. This permits to select a right trade-off between photon detection efficiency, timing resolution and dark count rate. The photon detection efficiency exceeds 70% at the wavelength of 532 nm. This is the highest photon detection efficiency ever reported for such a device. The timing properties of the detector have been investigated in detail. The timing resolution is better than 80 ps r.m.s, the detection delay is stable within units of picoseconds over several hours of operation. The detection delay stability in a sense of time deviation of 800 fs has been achieved. The temperature change of the detection delay is 0.5 ps/K. The detector has been tested as an echo signal detector in laser tracking of space debris at the satellite laser station in Graz, Austria. Its application in lunar laser ranging is under consideration by several laser stations.     

Gravity field models from kinematic orbits of CHAMP,GRACE and GOCE satellites

The aim of our work is to generate Earth’s gravity field models from GPS positions of low Earth orbiters. Our inversion method is based on Newton’s second law, which relates the observed acceleration of the satellite with forces acting on it. The observed acceleration is obtained as numerical second derivative of kinematic positions. Observation equations are formulated using the gradient of the spherical harmonic expansion of the geopotential. Other forces are either modelled (lunisolar perturbations, tides) or provided by onboard measurements (nongravitational perturbations). From this linear regression model the geopotential harmonic coefficients are obtained.     

Modeling satellite drag coefficients with response surfaces

Satellite drag coefficients are a major source of uncertainty in predicting the drag force on satellites in low Earth orbit. Among other things, accurately predicting the orbit requires detailed knowledge of the satellite drag coefficient. Computational methods are an important tool in computing the drag coefficient but are too intensive for real-time and predictive applications. Therefore, analytic or empirical models that can accurately predict drag coefficients are desired. This work uses response surfaces to model drag coefficients. The response surface methodology is validated by developing a response surface model for the drag coefficient of a sphere where the closed-form solution is known. The response surface model performs well in predicting the drag coefficient of a sphere with a root mean square percentage error less than 0.3% over the entire parameter space. For more complex geometries, such as the GRACE satellite, the Hubble Space Telescope, and the International Space Station, the model errors are only slightly larger at about 0.9%, 0.6%, and 1.0%, respectively.