Options for mapping foF2

Available long-term and near-real time global and regional maps of foF2 are examined in relation to telecommunication and aeronomy requirements and recommendations are made for the best present-day maps to adopt. In particular, it is shown that current CCIR maps do not meet all requirements and should not necessarily be regarded as standards against which other mappings should be compared.     

基于均匀化方法的缝纫层压板拉伸弹性模量有限元预测

利用均匀化方法研究缝纫复合材料层压板的弹性性能，给出了相应的数学分析模型。建立了有限元分析的单胞模型，并进行求解。计算结果表明，利用这种半解析模型可以得到缝纫层压板的弹性模量的上下限，其平均值与实验结果平均值吻合得很好。     

高超声速再入体烧蚀流场计算分析

从化学非平衡NS方程或其简化形式(粘性激波层方程、PNS方程)出发,求解高超声速再入体的绕流和底部尾流流场。首先讨论了碳基材料烧蚀壁面条件的确定方法,计算了包含和不包含碳-碳烧蚀产物的再入体半球的化学反应绕流流场,并和文献结果进行了对比。在此基础上,计算了两个高度条件下,包含和不包含碳-酚醛烧蚀产物的再入小钝锥的绕流和尾流流场,分析了烧蚀产物对流场电子数密度、温度等流动参数的影响。     

缝线粗细对复合材料面内弹性模量的损伤分析

建立了以碳纤维八枚五飞经面缎为基布,以不同粗细缝线的三维有限元模型。分别预报了缝线植入处基布全部损伤和部分损伤两种状况的弹性模量,较粗的缝线使得复合材料的拉剪弹性模量降低,较细的缝线对面内弹性模量影响较小;与未缝合相比,不同直径的缝线的模量变化在9.6%之内。此外,实验结果比有限元预报值大,但缝线粗细对复合材料面内弹性模量影响规律两者结果一致。     

Evolution and History in a new “Mathematical SETI” model

In a recent paper (Maccone, 2011 [15]) and in a recent book (Maccone, 2012 [17]), this author proposed a new mathematical model capable of merging SETI and Darwinian Evolution into a single mathematical scheme. This model is based on exponentials and lognormal probability distributions, called “b-lognormals” if they start at any positive time b (“birth”) larger than zero. Indeed:

• 1.Darwinian evolution theory may be regarded as a part of SETI theory in that the factor f_l in the Drake equation represents the fraction of planets suitable for life on which life actually arose, as it happened on Earth.
• 2.In 2008 (Maccone, 2008 [9]) this author firstly provided a statistical generalization of the Drake equation where the number N of communicating ET civilizations in the Galaxy was shown to follow the lognormal probability distribution. This fact is a consequence of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics, stating that the product of a number of independent random variables whose probability densities are unknown and independent of each other approached the lognormal distribution if the number of factors is increased at will, i.e. it approaches infinity.
• 3.Also, in Maccone (2011 [15]), it was shown that the exponential growth of the number of species typical of Darwinian Evolution may be regarded as the geometric locus of the peaks of a one-parameter family of b-lognormal distributions constrained between the time axis and the exponential growth curve. This was a brand-new result. And one more new and far-reaching idea was to define Darwinian Evolution as a particular realization of a stochastic process called Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) having the above exponential as its own mean value curve.
• 4.The b-lognormals may be also be interpreted as the lifespan of any living being, let it be a cell, or an animal, a plant, a human, or even the historic lifetime of any civilization. In Maccone, (2012 [17, Chapters 6, 7, 8 and 11]), as well as in the present paper, we give important exact equations yielding the b-lognormal when its birth time, senility-time (descending inflexion point) and death time (where the tangent at senility intercepts the time axis) are known. These also are brand-new results. In particular, the σ=1 b-lognormals are shown to be related to the golden ratio, so famous in the arts and in architecture, and these special b-lognormals we call “golden b-lognormals”.
• 5.Applying this new mathematical apparatus to Human History leads to the discovery of the exponential trend of progress between Ancient Greece and the current USA Empire as the envelope of the b-lognormals of all Western Civilizations over a period of 2500 years.
• 6.We then invoke Shannon's Information Theory. The entropy of the obtained b-lognormals turns out to be the index of “development level” reached by each historic civilization. As a consequence, we get a numerical estimate of the entropy difference (i.e. the difference in the evolution levels) between any two civilizations. In particular, this was the case when Spaniards first met with Aztecs in 1519, and we find the relevant entropy difference between Spaniards an Aztecs to be 3.84 bits/individual over a period of about 50 centuries of technological difference. In a similar calculation, the entropy difference between the first living organism on Earth (RNA?) and Humans turns out to equal 25.57 bits/individual over a period of 3.5 billion years of Darwinian Evolution.
• 7.Finally, we extrapolate our exponentials into the future, which is of course arbitrary, but is the best Humans can do before they get in touch with any alien civilization. The results are appalling: the entropy difference between aliens 1 million years more advanced than Humans is of the order of 1000 bits/individual, while 10,000 bits/individual would be requested to any Civilization wishing to colonize the whole Galaxy (Fermi Paradox).
• 8.In conclusion, we have derived a mathematical model capable of estimating how much more advanced than humans an alien civilization will be when SETI succeeds.

     

烧蚀对再入体绕流电子数密度影响的数值研究

从化学非平衡NS方程或其简化形式(粘性激波层方程、PNS方程)出发,采用分区求解的方法数值模拟含泰氟隆烧蚀产物的高超声速再入体流场.首先计算分析了RAM-C飞行试验状态和一个考核算例,对计算方法和程序作了初步验证.其次耦合烧蚀壁面边界条件和流体控制方程,采用19组分28个反应的化学反应模型,对有、无烧蚀情况下高超声速钝锥体再入绕流及底部流场进行了数值模拟,深入分析了烧蚀产物对再入流场电子数密度及温度分布的影响.     

风机叶片用缝编织物渗透性能评估

在渗透性能测试方法归纳介绍的基础上,开展了试验及比较,初步确定了相应的测试试验规范.结合风机叶片的具体工艺和使用部位等,初步选定了缝编织物的渗透性能评估参数和测试方法,以对风机叶片用缝编织物渗透性能测试评估方法的统一规范确定提供一些思路.     

Statistical modelling of radio wave propagation under sporadic E-Layer influence

A technique of modelling the one-hop radio wave propagation at middle latitudes in the presence of sporadic E-Layer is presented. The technique is focused on the performance of the long-term forecast of the maximum usable frequency range and on the increase of the radio communication reliability. Examples of calculation for medium-distance paths are shown.     

Observations of Vertical Reflections from the Topside Martian Ionosphere

The Martian ionosphere has for the first time been probed by a low frequency topside radio wave sounder experiment (MARSIS) (Gurnett et al., 2005). The density profiles in the Martian ionosphere have for the first time been observed for solar zenith angles less than 48 degrees. The sounder spectrograms typically have a single trace of echoes, which are controlled by reflections from the ionosphere in the direction of nadir. With the local density at the spacecraft derived from the sounder measurements and using the lamination technique the spectrograms are inverted to electron density profiles. The measurements yield electron density profiles from the sub-solar region to past the terminator. The maximum density varies in time with the solar rotation period, indicating control of the densities by solar ionizing radiation. Electron density increases associated with solar flares were observed. The maximum electron density varies with solar zenith angle as predicted by theory. The altitude profile of electron densities between the maximum density and about 170m altitude is well approximated by a classic Chapman layer. The neutral scale height is close to 10 to 13 km. At altitudes above 180 km the densities deviate from and are larger than inferred by the Chapman layer. At altitudes above the exobase the density decrease was approximated by an exponential function with scale heights between 24 and 65 km. The densities in the top side ionosphere above the exobase tends to be larger than the densities extrapolated from the Chapman layer fitted to the measurements at lower altitudes, implying more efficient upward diffusion above the collision dominated photo equilibrium region.     

缝合密度对复合材料性能影响研究

建立了不同缝合密度的碳纤维缎纹增强复合材料有限元模型,对其面内弹性模量进行有限元预报,并进行了实验验证。实验结果表明:随着缝合密度增加,复合材料的面内弹性模量降低,最大降低幅度约为44%,而对泊松比的影响很小。实验结果与有限元预报的规律一致。