基于BP神经网络的装备备件重要度评估

针对装备备件重要度的评估问题,构建了相应的评估指标体系,建立了用于备件重要度评估的三层BP神经网络.然后,构造样本对BP神经网络进行训练,利用训练好的网络对备件重要度进行评估.结果表明,该方法能够较好地克服人为因素和模糊随机性的影响,取得了较好的评估效果.     

Some problems with developing a standard for determining solar energetic particle fluxes

Based on the author’s experience in ISO TC20/SC14 Working Group 4, this paper discusses the common problems encountered when developing a standard for solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes. The problem involving the reliability of the distribution function describing the SEP events and the interpolation of this function into the region of not-yet-observed large events are discussed. The problems with describing the fluences of SEPs over a wide range of energy in the form of energetic spectra are analyzed. Requirements for SEP flux models are formulated. The reliability of some SEP flux models is determined by comparing their predictions with the experimental data.     

Correlations between neutral and ionized solar wind

We report results of a statistical study correlating ionized solar wind (ISW) fluxes observed by ACE during late 2000 and throughout 2001 with neutral solar wind (NSW) fluxes observed by IMAGE/LENA over the same period. The average correlation coefficient between the neutral and ionized solar wind is 0.66 with correlations greater than 0.80 occurring about 29% of the time. Correlations appear to be driven by high solar wind flux variability, similar to results obtained by in situ multi-spacecraft correlation studies. In this study, however, IMAGE remains inside the magnetosphere on over 95% of its orbits. As a function of day of year, or equivalently ecliptic longitude, the slope of the relationship between the neutral solar wind flux and the ionized solar wind flux shows an enhancement near the upstream direction, but the symmetry point appears shifted toward higher ecliptic longitudes than the interstellar neutral (ISN) flow direction by about 20°. The estimated peak interstellar neutral upstream density inside of 1 AU is about 7 × 10⁻³ cm⁻³.     

Acceleration of Solar-Energetic Particles by Shocks

Our current understanding of the acceleration of solar-energetic particles is reviewed. The emphasis in this paper is on analytic theory and numerical modeling of the physics of diffusive shock acceleration. This mechanism naturally produces an energy spectrum that is a power law over a given energy interval that is below a characteristic energy where the spectrum has a break, or a rollover. This power law is a common feature in the observations of all types of solar-energetic particles, and not necessarily just those associated with shock waves (e.g. events associated with impulsive solar flares which are often described in terms of resonant stochastic acceleration). Moreover, the spectral index is observed to have remarkably little variability from one event to the next (about 50%). Any successful acceleration mechanism must be able to produce this feature naturally and have a resulting power-law index that does not depend on physical parameters that are expected to vary considerably. Currently, only diffusive shock acceleration does this.     

Ionic Charge States of Solar Energetic Particles: A Clue to the Source

The ionic charge of solar energetic particles (SEP) as observed in interplanetary space is an important parameter for the diagnostic of the plasma conditions at the source region and provides fundamental information about the acceleration and propagation processes at the Sun and in interplanetary space. In this paper we review the new measurements of ionic charge states with advanced instrumentation onboard the SAMPEX, SOHO, and ACE spacecraft that provide for the first time ionic charge measurements over the wide energy range of ∼0.01 to 70 MeV/nuc (for Fe), and for many individual SEP events. These new measurements show a strong energy dependence of the mean ionic charge of heavy ions, most pronounced for iron, indicating that the previous interpretation of the mean ionic charge being solely related to the ambient plasma temperature was too simplistic. This energy dependence, in combination with models on acceleration, charge stripping, and solar and interplanetary propagation, provides constraints for the temperature, density, and acceleration time scales in the acceleration region. The comparison of the measurements with model calculations shows that for impulsive events with a large increase of Q _Fe(E) at energies ≤1 MeV/nuc the acceleration occurs low in the corona, typically at altitudes ≤0.2 R _S .     

Neutral Atmospheres of the Giant Planets: An Overview of Composition Measurements

Measurements of the chemical composition of the giant planets provide clues of their formation and evolution processes. According to the currently accepted nucleation model, giant planets formed from the initial accretion of an icy core and the capture of the protosolar gas, mosly composed of hydrogen and helium. In the case of Jupiter and Saturn (the gaseous giants), this gaseous component dominates the composition of the planet, while for Uranus and Neptune (the icy giants) it is only a small fraction of the total mass. The measurement of elemental and isotopic ratios in the giant planets provides key diagnostics of this model, as it implies an enrichment in heavy elements (as well as deuterium) with respect to the cosmic composition. Neutral atmospheric constituents in the giant planets have three possible sources: (1) internal (fromthe bulk composition of the planet), (2) photochemical (fromthe photolysis ofmethane) and(3) external (from meteoritic impacts, of local or interplanetary origin). This paper reviews our present knowledge about the atmospheric composition in the giant planets, and their elemental and istopic composition. Measurements concerning key parameters, like C/H, D/H or rare gases in Jupiter, are analysed in detail. The conclusion addresses open questions and observations to be performed in the future.     

一类中立型泛函微分大系统的稳定性

本文考查了一类中立型泛函微分大系统，得出了平凡解的稳定性、渐近稳定性，指数稳定性等价定理。     

基于改进的BP网络的水机温度模型建立

传统的水电仿真系统中的温度模型的构建方法存在模型可移植性比较差、推导过程必须有水电专家的参与、推导过程复杂度大、模型精确度不高等不足,这些都对水电仿真的进一步发展和准确性产生了一定影响。因此需要一种更新的方法来适应水电仿真的发展。为此提出了一种改进的BP网络神经元网络学习算法,通过改进训练算法以提高神经网络的训练效率以及准确度。将这种算法应用于吉林丰满水电厂水电仿真系统的水机温度模型的建立实验中,并与原有的神经网络方法进行比较,比较结果表明,该方法能提高分类准确率和训练速度。     

Thermospheric neutral density response to solar forcing

Recent measurements by the Solar EUV (Extreme Ultra Violet) Experiment (SEE) aboard the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite (TIMED) provide solar EUV spectral irradiance with adequate spectral and temporal resolution, and thus the opportunity to use solar measurements directly in upper atmospheric general circulation models. Thermospheric neutral density is simulated with the NCAR Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) using TIMED/SEE measurements and using the EUVAC solar proxy model. Neutral density is also calculated using the NRLMSISE-00 empirical model. These modeled densities are then compared to density measurements derived from satellite drag data. It is found that using measured solar irradiance in the general circulation model can improve density calculations compared to using the solar proxy model. It is also found that the general circulation model can improve upon the empirical model in simulating geomagnetic storm effects and the solar cycle variation of neutral density.     

Solar Energetic Particle Events: Phenomenology and Prediction

Space Science Reviews - Solar energetic particle events can cause major disruptions to the operation of spacecraft in earth orbit and outside the earth's magnetosphere and have to be considered...