均方意义下三维雷达无偏转换测量误差协方差阵的推导

在以前的研究中,无偏转测量误差协方差阵是基于当前测量值得到的.为了能利用所有历史数据以得到更精确的转换测量误差协方差阵估计,文中在均方意义下,推导了三维雷达的最优无偏转换测量误差协方差阵.     

基于线性协方差分析的接近天体在轨导航方法研究

针对深空探测接近段自主导航高精度、高可靠性和实时性的要求,提出在轨融合光学测量信息和无线电测量信息的接近段自主导航方法.为选择合适的光学测量信息和无线电信息在轨融合,结合线性协方差分析方法和基于B平面参数的误差分析方法,分析了不同光学观测信息和无线电测量信息在轨融合的导航方案,说明了提出的自主导航方法可有效提高导航精度,并对光学观测信息的选择给出了合理的建议.基于蒙特卡罗打靶的仿真分析验证了所提出分析方法的有效性.     

Evaluation of MODIS GPP over a complex ecosystem in East Asia: A case study at Gwangneung flux tower in Korea

Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiometer (MODIS) gross primary productivity (GPP) has been used widely to study the global carbon cycle associated with terrestrial ecosystems. The retrieval of the current MODIS productivity with a 1 × 1 km² resolution has limitations when presenting subgrid scale processes in terrestrial ecosystems, specifically when forests are located in mountainous areas, and shows heterogeneity in vegetation type due to intensive land use. Here, we evaluate MODIS GPP (MOD17) at Gwangneung deciduous forest KoFlux tower (deciduous forest; GDK) for 2006–2010 in Korea, where the forests comprise heterogeneous vegetation cover over complex terrain. The monthly MODIS GPP data overestimated the GDK measurements in a range of +15% to +34% and was fairly well correlated (R = 0.88) with the monthly variability at GDK during the growing season. In addition, the MODIS data partly represented the sharp GPP reduction during the Asian summer monsoon (June–September) when intensive precipitation considerably reduces solar radiation and disturbs the forest ecosystem. To examine the influence of subgrid scale heterogeneity on GPP estimates over the MODIS scale, the individual vegetation type and its area within a corresponding MODIS pixel were identified using a national forest type map (∼71-m spatial resolution), and the annual GPP in the same area as the MODIS pixel was estimated. This resulted in a slight reduction in the positive MODIS bias by ∼10%, with a high degree of uncertainty in the estimation. The MODIS discrepancy for GDK suggests further investigation is necessary to determine the MODIS errors associated with the site-specific aerodynamic and hydrological characteristics that are closely related to the mountainous topography. The accuracy of meteorological variables and the impact of the very cloudy conditions in East Asia also need to be assessed.     

航天器近距离相对运动的轨迹偏差分析

利用相对可达区(RRD)的概念对航天器在脉冲闭环控制方式下相对运动的轨迹偏差进行了分析。相对可达区是对航天器可能出现位置集合的一种几何描述。当航天器的状态误差服从高斯分布时,相对可达区可表示为随时间变化的误差椭球的集合。考虑航天器飞行过程中存在的不确定性因素,基于闭环控制系统下线性化的相对运动动力学模型,采用协方差分析描述函数法(CADET)对定义航天器误差椭球的协方差矩阵进行了分析,给出了根据协方差矩阵求解相对可达区包络的计算方法。通过将开环和闭环控制系统下的相对可达区包络与1 000次的Monte Carlo仿真结果进行比较,证明了偏差分析方法的适用性与有效性。     

一种单站无源定位原理与目标跟踪算法研究

基于辐射源的信号到达方向(DOA)及其变化率信息,提出了一种对机动目标进行单站无源定位与跟踪的方法。根据建立的目标机动模型和测量方程,分别用扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)和修正协方差扩展卡尔曼滤波(MVEKF)算法实现对机动目标的定位与跟踪,并给出了算法模型。仿真结果表明,该法正确有效,定位精度较高、收敛速度快。     

不完全区间数据最佳线性无偏估计方法

建立了不完全区间数据秩统计量的概率密度函数和联合概率密度函数, 给出了其平均秩、中位秩和百分位秩以及不完全区间数据统计量的均值、方差和协方差计算公式.在此基础上, 针对位置-尺度分布族提出一种不完全区间数据最佳线性无偏估计方法, 得到了其百分位值的置信限估计, 并对工程中常见的极值分布、两参数Weibull分布、正态分布进行了详细讨论.      

不完全数据最佳线性无偏估计方法

针对工程上存在大量不完全数据的情况,本文建立了不完全数据秩统计量的联合概率密度函数,给出不完全数据顺序统计量的均值、方差和协方差计算公式,提出不完全数据最佳线性无偏估计方法,并对正态分布、Weibull分布等位置-尺度分布进行了详细讨论。该方法能够充分开发利用试验数据中的不完全信息,从而提高不完全数据统计分析的精度。      

基于变形力数据的结构件残余应力场重构方法

残余应力是引起零件加工变形和失效的重要因素,残余应力场的重构有助于消除和控制零件在设计、制造、评价和使用过程中的残余应力。针对已有方法难以准确重构残余应力场的问题,提出了一种通过零件加工过程中的变形力数据实现零件残余应力场重构的方法。该方法首先提取了由于材料去除引起的应力重新分布带来的装夹力变化数据,即变形力。残余应力到变形力之间通过协方差矩阵自适应进化策略(CMA-ES算法)反复迭代求解出映射关系,从而构建出零件的残余应力场,最后在仿真环境下对该方法进行了验证。验证结果表明:该方法能较好地预测残余应力场,重构出的零件的初始残余应力场与原始施加的应力场平均误差值约0.38 MPa,为零件残余应力场的重构提供了一种新思路。     

利用协方差分析法合理评价高数教学效果

本文利用协方差分析法合理评价高数教学效果。     

Probability of Collision Error Analysis

The decision for the International Space Station (ISS) to maneuver to avoid a potential collision with another space object will be based on the probability of collision, P _C. The calculation of P _C requires the covariance of both objects at conjunction. It is well known that the covariance computed by US Space Command is optimistic (too small), especially at altitudes where atmospheric drag is the dominant perturbation, because its computation assumes there are no dynamic model errors. In this paper the effect of errors in the covariance on P _C and the sensitivity of P _C to the encounter geometry are investigated.