Estimating sea level rise around Australia using a new approach to account for low frequency climate signals

Regional sea level studies help to identify the vulnerable areas to the sea level rise. This study investigates the impact of climate modes on sea level variations and trends around Australia using altimetry data, climate indices, and sea level records from tide gauge stations. Here, we show that the sea level variations are negatively correlated with climate indices to the north and west of Australia. The spectral analyses of the climate indices and tide gauge data suggest that a low frequency signal with a period of 11 years emerges during the mid 1980s. Since the 25-year length of the satellite altimetry record is yet too short to detect low frequency signals, their effect on the estimation of regional sea level trend is unknown. Therefore, we estimate the sea level trend with consideration of this signal and using a two-step method. All signals with periods shorter than 7.5 years are first removed from sea level time series and then the trend is estimated using the parametric model that includes the 11-year signal. The skill of the parametric model in explaining the variations in sea level anomaly validates the presence of the 11-year signal detected in the spectrograms of the tide gauge data and climate indices. The average sea level trend for the study area is estimated as 3.85 ± 0.15 mm/year.     

Regional and temporal variability of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation

In this work we studied the spatial and temporal structure of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation as well as possible reasons for the peculiarities of this structure. The study revealed a strong latitudinal and regional dependence of SA/GCR effects on pressure variations in the lower troposphere which seems to be determined by specific features of baric systems formed in different regions. The temporal structure of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere circulation at high and middle latitudes is characterized by a roughly 60-year periodicity which is apparently due to the epochs of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is suggested that a possible mechanism of long-term effects of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the troposphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the polar vortex in the stratosphere of high latitudes, as well as planetary frontal zones.     

Short-term periodicities in the downward longwave radiation and their associations with cosmic ray and solar interplanetary data

In this study downward longwave (LW) atmospheric radiation data for the period of 2014–2020 were used to search for short-term periodicities using fast Fourier transform (FFT). Several local peaks in the power spectrum density were found and established. The time series exhibits a series of significant peaks (exceeding the 95% confidence limit), such as at 273 days, 227 days, 200 days, 178 days, 157 days, 110 days, 120 days, 87 days, 73 days, 53–56 days, 35–30 days, 25–27 days, 21 days, 13 days, and 9–10 days.Moreover, cosmic ray data from KACST muon detector and the Oulu neutron monitor, as well as the data for the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7 cm), Dst index, and solar wind speed for the same period as the LW data, were used to look for common cyclic variations and periodicities matching those found in the LW radiation. This was done to investigate the possible effect of the solar activity parameters on LW radiation. Several common periodicities were observed in the spectra of all the variables considered, such as 227 days, 154–157 days, 25–27 days, and 21 days. Some of the periodicities found in the LW radiation spectrum can be attributed to the modulation of the cosmic ray intensity by solar activity. Others are attributed to the disturbances in the interplanetary magnetic field. Based on the spectral results, we suggest that the solar signals may directly or indirectly affect the variations of the downward longwave radiation, which in turn may affect climate change.     

新生代的气候效应与碳循环

对发生于新生代的６次巨大天体撞击作用（６５Ｍａ，３４Ｍａ，１５Ｍａ，２４Ｍａ，１．１Ｍａ，０．７Ｍａ）的气候效应进行的模拟表明，这６次巨大天体撞击作用产生的尘埃进入平流层后，可使全球平均温度下降至零度以下，降温效应持续时间最长可达３０年之久，首次在模拟中考虑全球性森林大火产生的ＣＯ２和死亡生物分解生成的ＣＯ２的温室效应，研究表明这两种作用使大气中ＣＯ２增量最大仅达６７％，其增温效应远远低于尘埃层产     

Stratospheric polar vortex as a possible reason for temporal variations of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation

Possible reasons for the temporal instability of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation were studied. It was shown that the detected earlier ∼60-year oscillations of the amplitude and sign of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere pressure at high and middle latitudes (Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, Adv.Space Res., 2012) are closely related to the state of a cyclonic vortex forming in the polar stratosphere. The intensity of the vortex was found to reveal a roughly 60-year periodicity affecting the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the character of SA/GCR effects. An intensification of both Arctic anticyclones and mid-latitudinal cyclones associated with an increase of GCR fluxes at minima of the 11-year solar cycles is observed in the epochs of a strong polar vortex. In the epochs of a weak polar vortex SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes were found to change the sign. The results obtained provide evidence that the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray influences on the lower atmosphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex.     

European space research in support of international partnership

The envisaged future space research programmes, whether in the field of space exploration or Earth observation are becoming more and more technically complicated and so costly that a single nation can hardly afford to realize them. Major non-European space-faring nations, China and India will progressively play an important role besides US, Russia and Japan. The Space Advisory Group of the European Commission recommended that the European Commission supports within Horizon 2020 a comprehensive Robotic Mars-Exploration Programme under European leadership that should become an essential element of a coordinated international space research programme. The International Space Station (ISS) experience shows that cooperative space programmes build links between industries and laboratories from around the world, which then further develop in non-space related activities, with positive impact on the economy and scientific research. Strategies need to be developed to mitigate the gradual increasing risks incurred by climate change. In order to lower their entry barrier to engage in space emerging and developing space nations need to be included in cooperative space programmes. We present the recommendations of the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission concerning Europe's participation to global space endeavours.     

CM-SAF surface radiation budget: First results with AVHRR data

In the phase of redefinition of the EUMETSAT ground segment seven so called Satellite Application Facilities (SAF) each of them serving dedicated user groups have been established in Europe. The SAF on climate monitoring (CM-SAF) will deliver a comprehensive set of climate variables, including from different cloud products, radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere, surface radiation budget and tropospheric humidity. A consistent dataset of cloud and radiation products in a high spatial resolution on a uniform grid is derived. The CM-SAF is a joint project of the German Meteorological Service, EUMETSAT and five other European Meteorological Services. It is dedicated to produce climate datasets using data from instruments onboard of METEOSAT Second Generation and polar orbiting satellites NOAA and METOP. After the development phase, the CM-SAF has started its initial operational phase in the end of 2003. In this context, the algorithms have been implemented at the processing centres and the processing of satellite data from the polar orbiting satellites of NOAA has commenced. This paper gives an overview of the first products of surface radiative fluxes and their validation with selected surface sites.     

Evaluation of MODIS GPP over a complex ecosystem in East Asia: A case study at Gwangneung flux tower in Korea

Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiometer (MODIS) gross primary productivity (GPP) has been used widely to study the global carbon cycle associated with terrestrial ecosystems. The retrieval of the current MODIS productivity with a 1 × 1 km² resolution has limitations when presenting subgrid scale processes in terrestrial ecosystems, specifically when forests are located in mountainous areas, and shows heterogeneity in vegetation type due to intensive land use. Here, we evaluate MODIS GPP (MOD17) at Gwangneung deciduous forest KoFlux tower (deciduous forest; GDK) for 2006–2010 in Korea, where the forests comprise heterogeneous vegetation cover over complex terrain. The monthly MODIS GPP data overestimated the GDK measurements in a range of +15% to +34% and was fairly well correlated (R = 0.88) with the monthly variability at GDK during the growing season. In addition, the MODIS data partly represented the sharp GPP reduction during the Asian summer monsoon (June–September) when intensive precipitation considerably reduces solar radiation and disturbs the forest ecosystem. To examine the influence of subgrid scale heterogeneity on GPP estimates over the MODIS scale, the individual vegetation type and its area within a corresponding MODIS pixel were identified using a national forest type map (∼71-m spatial resolution), and the annual GPP in the same area as the MODIS pixel was estimated. This resulted in a slight reduction in the positive MODIS bias by ∼10%, with a high degree of uncertainty in the estimation. The MODIS discrepancy for GDK suggests further investigation is necessary to determine the MODIS errors associated with the site-specific aerodynamic and hydrological characteristics that are closely related to the mountainous topography. The accuracy of meteorological variables and the impact of the very cloudy conditions in East Asia also need to be assessed.     

星载加速度计数据在卫星定轨中的应用

基于传统的动力学法,以加速度计数据替代非保守力加速度,提出了一种用加速度计数据进行卫星精密定轨的模型。用美喷气推进实验室(JPL)提供的GRACE星星载加速度计实测数据进行了验证。结果表明,用加速度计可获得较准确的卫星瞬时加速度,其积分轨道的误差小于纯力学模型,从而提高卫星定轨精度。但由于动力学定轨法的固有特点,其定轨误差会随时间而增大。     

Time distribution of the precipitable water vapor in central Saudi Arabia and its relationship to solar activity

Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas. It plays a major role in the dynamics of atmospheric circulation, radiation exchange within the atmosphere, and climate variability. Knowledge of the distribution of water vapor is important for understanding climate change and global warming.