Investigation of precursory phenomena in the ionosphere,atmosphere and groundwater before large earthquakes of M > 6.5

Precursory phenomena in the ionosphere, atmosphere and groundwater before large earthquakes (M > 6.5) are extensively investigated toward the earthquake prediction. Upward tornado type seismic clouds occurred near the epicenter associated with strong LF-VLF radio noises from lightning discharges in the evening of January 9, 1995 [Yamada, T., Oike, K. On the increase of electromagnetic noises before and after the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu earthquake. In: Hayakawa M. (Ed.), Atmospheric and Ionospheric Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes. TERRAPUB, Tokyo, pp. 417–427, 1999] and anomalous foEs increases up to 10 MHz were detected at Shigaraki, 90 km of the epicenter and at Kokubunji, 500 km east of the epicenter [Ondoh, T. Anomalous sporadic-E layers observed before M7.2 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake; Terrestrial gas emanation model. Adv. Polar Upper Atmos. Res. 17, 96–108, 2003; Ondoh, T. Anomalous sporadic-E ionization before a great earthquake, Adv. Space Research 34, 1830–1835, 2004] associated with strong ELF noises from lightning discharges in the daytime on January 15, 1995 [Hata, M., Fujii, T., Takumi, I. EM precursor of large-scale earthquakes in Japan, in: Abstracts of International Workshop on Seismo Electromagnetics (IWSE 2005), Univ. Electro-Communications, Chofu, Tokyo, Japan, March 15–17, pp. 182–186, 2005] before the M7.2 Hyogoken–Nanbu earthquake of January 17, 1995. The anomalous foEs increases occurred at epicentral distances within 500 km that are the same as those of the terrestrial gas emanations along active faults before large earthquakes [King, C.-Y. Gas geochemistry applied to earthquake prediction: An overview. J. Geophys. Res. 91(B12), 12269–12281, 1986]. The anomalous foEs increases seem to be a seismic precursor because geomagnetic and solar conditions were very quiet all day on January 15,1995 and the normal foEs in Japanese winter is below 6 MHz. No significant pre-seismic geomagnetic field variation was detected at epicentral distance of 100 km before this earthquake [Ondoh, T., Hayakawa, M. Anomalous occurrence of sporadic-E layers before the Hyogoken–Nanbu earthquake, M7.2 of January 17, 1995. In: Hayakawa, M. (Ed.), Atmospheric and Ionospheric Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes, TERRAPUB, Tokyo, pp. 629–639, 1999; Ondoh, T., Hayakawa, M. Seismo discharge model of anomalous sporadic E ionization before great earthquakes. In: Hayakawa, M., O.A. Molchanov, (Eds.), Seismo Electromagnetics: Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Couplings, TERRAPUB, Tokyo, pp. 385–390, 2002; Ondoh. T., Hayakawa, M. Synthetic study of precursory phenomena of the M7.2 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. Phys. Chem. Earth 31, 378–388, 2006]. The foF2 decrease and h’F increase occurred before the M7.8 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki earthquake of July 12,1993 in a geomagnetic quiet period [Ondoh, T. Ionospheric disturbances associated with great earthquake of Hokkaido southwest coast, Japan of July 12, 1993. Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors. 105, 261–269, 1998; Ondoh, T. Seismo ionospheric phenomena. Adv. Space Res. 26, 8, 1267–1272, 2000]. Characteristic phase changes at terminator times of Omega 10.2 kHz waves passing 70 km of the epicenter extended toward darker local times by 1 h for 3 days before this earthquake due to lowering of the wave reflection height or ion density increases in the D region [Hayakawa, M., Molchanov, O. A., Ondoh, T., Kawai, E. The precursory signature effect of the Kobe earthquake on VLF subionospheric signals. J. Commun. Res. La., 43, 00. 169–180, 1996]. The radon concentration in the atmosphere over Ashiya fault, Kobe [Yasuoka, Y., Shinogi, M. Anomaly in atmospheric radon concentration: a possible precursor of the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake. Health Phys. 72(5), 759–761, 1997] and in the groundwater at 17 m well in Nishinomiya, Japan [Igarashi, G., Saeki, S., Takahata, N., Sumikawa, K., Tasaki, S., Sasaki, Y., Takahashi, M., Sano, Y. Ground-water radon anomaly before the Kobe earthquake in Japan. Science 269, 60–61, 1995] had gradually increased since 2 months before the M7.2 earthquake, increased suddenly in December 1994, and rapidly returned to the normal low level of October, 1994 [Yasuoka, Y., Shinogi, M. 1997. Anomaly in atmospheric radon concentration: a possible precursor of the 1995 Kobe. Japan, earthquake. Health Phys. 72(5), 759–761.]. Radon concentration changes in the groundwater before the M 7.0 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake, Japan on January 14, 1978 [Wakita, H., Nakamura, Y., Notsu, K., Noguchi, M., Asada, T. 1980. Radon anomaly: a possible precursor of the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake. Science 207, 882–883] and the M6.8 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan on December 10, 2003 [Kuo, T., Fan, K., Chen, W., Kuochen, H., Han, Y., Wang, C., Chang, T., Lee, Y. Radon anomaly at the Antung Hot Spring before the Taiwan M6.8 Chengkung earthquake. Proceedings, Thirty-First Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, January 30–February 1, 2006, SGP-TR-179, 2006] are also investigated to find common features of the groundwater radon concentration changes before large earthquakes (M > 6.5) in comparison with those before the M7.2 Hyogoken–Nanbu earthquake. Groundwater radon concentrations before the 3 large earthquakes had shown common characteristic changes of gradually initial ones from the normal level since about 2 months before the earthquake onsets, rapid decreases down to the minimum, and quick increases up to the maximum at 7–20 days before the earthquake onsets, respectively. These are very useful characteristics of pre-seismic radon anomaly for the earthquake prediction or warning. Promising observations toward the earthquake prediction are also discussed.     

飞机主动重心控制系统设计及应用

以我国先进飞机需求牵引为背景,研究了主动重心控制系统方案和设计方法.首先,构建了一种飞机主动重心控制系统结构方案,用于协调纵向重心与气动焦点之间的关系;其次,基于平衡输油系统建立了重心位移模型,提出了最佳重心位置设计准则,在此基础上设计了基于干扰观测器补偿的主动重心控制器,并将其应用到某型飞机超声速巡航中.仿真结果表明,该主动重心控制系统合理地协调了飞机的纵向稳定性和操纵性,并有效地减小了巡航阻力,提高了巡航的效率和航程.     

变重力场中散体颗粒堆的安息角及接触力分布

为研究重力与散体颗粒堆安息角的关系,针对颗粒系统的随机性和离散性特点,通过三维离散单元法建立颗粒的运动模型,对颗粒在不同重力场中的堆积过程进行了模拟,得出了颗粒堆的安息角及接触力概率分布.结果表明:颗粒堆内接触力构成的力链呈非规则网络状,其中,接触力近似对数正态分布,约65%接触力低于平均值;接触点中约70%处于临界滑移,其余接触点切向力与法向力的比值为均匀分布;不同重力场中颗粒堆接触力的分布规律具有相似性,即接触力相对重力无量纲化之后,其分布函数高度相符;颗粒堆的微观结构具有随机性差异,但是安息角不受重力大小的影响.     

The simulation of lunar gravity field recovery from D-VLBI of Chang’E-1 and SELENE lunar orbiters

The lunar gravity field is a foundation to study the lunar interior structure, and to recover the evolution history of the Moon. It is still an open and key topic for lunar science. For above mentioned reasons, it becomes one of the important scientific objectives of recent lunar missions, such as KAGUYA (SELENE) the Japanese lunar mission and Chang’E-1, the Chinese lunar mission. The Chang’E-1 and the SELENE were successfully launched in 2007. It is estimated that these two missions can fly around the Moon longer than 6 months simultaneously. In these two missions, the Chinese new VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry) network will be applied for precise orbit determination (POD) by using a differential VLBI (D-VLBI) method during the mission period. The same-beam D-VLBI technique will contribute to recover the lunar gravity field together with other conventional observables, i.e. R&RR (Range and Range Rate) and multi-way Doppler. Taking VLBI tracking conditions into consideration and using the GEODYNII/SOVLE software of GSFC/NASA/USA [8 and 10], we simulated the lunar gravity field recovering ability with and without D-VLBI between the Chang’E-1 and SELENE main satellite. The cases of overlapped flying and tracking period of 30 days, 60 days and 90 days have been analyzed, respectively. The results show that D-VLBI tracking between two lunar satellites can improve the gravity field recovery remarkably. The results and methods introduced in this paper will benefit the actual missions.     

海洋重力计量体系及方法

重力加速度精确测量在国防军事、地质研究、资源勘探、地球物理、地震预报及计量科学等领域中均有着广泛的应用。重力加速度测量和量值传递均需以绝对重力仪为载体进行,而重力加速度测量的准确性需要通过量值溯源来保证。目前,我国在海洋绝对重力计量领域还处于空白阶段,而在建设海洋强国的进程中,海洋重力计量体系的构建显得尤为重要。以此为背景,基于当前已有的重力量值溯源及传递体系,结合我国当前海洋重力计量的需求,就海洋重力体系的建设及规划给出了若干设想和展望。     

长期自重载荷作用下固体发动机药柱的位移分析

为了分析固体发动机药柱在长期自重载荷作用下的位移水平,采用加速老化试验,得到该推进剂松弛模量随贮存时间的变化规律;考虑固体导弹发动机的实际贮存情况,探讨了有限元计算中处理发动机滚转的方法;应用三维粘弹性有限元分析方法,对贮存一定时间后的发动机进行了数值仿真,从中获得发动机药柱在长期自重载荷作用下的位移情况。计算结果表明,固体发动机每0.5 a定期翻转,蠕变基本回复到原来的3%以内,药柱的位移增加不大,说明贮存过程中每0.5 a翻转1次是一种好方法,可为固体发动机的设计和使用提供参考。     

Uncertainties in gravity wave parameters,momentum fluxes,and flux divergences estimated from multi-layer measurements of mesospheric nightglow layers

Measurements of dynamic parameters of atmospheric gravity waves, mainly the vertical wavelength, the momentum flux and the momentum flux divergence, are affected by large uncertainties crudely documented in the scientific literature. By using methods of error analysis, we have quantified these uncertainties for frequently observed temporal and spatial wave scales. The results show uncertainties of ～10%, ～35%, and ～65%, at least, in the vertical wavelength, momentum flux, and flux divergence, respectively. The large uncertainties in the momentum flux and flux divergence are dominated by uncertainties in the Brunt-Väisälä frequency and in spatial separation of the nightglow layers, respectively. The measured uncertainties in fundamental wave parameters such as the wave amplitude, intrinsic period, horizontal wavelength, and wave orientation are ～10% or less and estimated directly from our nightglow image data set. Other key environmental quantities such as the scale height and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency, frequently considered as constants in gravity wave parameter estimations schemes, are actually quite variable, presenting uncertainties of ～4% and ～9%, respectively, according to the several solar activity and seasonal atmosphere scenarios from the NRLMSISE-00 model simulated here.     

The flyby anomaly: A case for strong gravitomagnetism?

In the last two decades an anomalous variation in the asymptotic velocity of spacecraft performing a flyby manoeuvre around Earth has been discovered through careful Doppler tracking and orbital analysis. No viable hypothesis for a conventional explanation of this effect has been proposed and its origin remains unexplained. In this paper we discuss a strong transversal component of the gravitomagnetic field as a possible source of the flyby anomaly. We show that the perturbations induced by such a field could fit the anomalies both in sign and order of magnitude. But, although the secular contributions to the Gravity Probe B experimental results and the Lense–Thirring effect in geodynamics satellites can be made null, the detailed orbital evolution is easily in conflict with such an enhanced gravitomagnetic effect.     

On the performance of IRI-2016 to predict the North-South asymmetry of the equatorial ionization anomaly around 73°E longitude

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in both northern and southern Equatorial anomaly regions are examined by using the Global Positioning System (GPS) based TEC measurements around 73°E Longitude in the Asian sector. The TEC contour charts obtained at SURAT (21.16°N; 72.78°E; 12.9°N Geomagnetic Lat.) and DGAR (7.27°S; 72.37°E; 15.3°S Geomagnetic Lat.) over 73°E longitude during a very low solar activity phase (2009) and a moderate solar activity (2012) phase are used in this study. The results show the existence of hemispheric asymmetry and the effects of solar activity on the EIA crest in occurrence time, location and strength. The results are also compared with the TEC derived by IRI-2016 Model and it is found that the North-South asymmetry at the EIA region is clearly depicted by IRI-2016 with some discrepancies (up to 20% in the northern hemisphere at SURAT and up to 40% in the southern hemisphere at DGAR station for June Solstice and up to 10% both for SURAT and DGAR for December Solstice). This discrepancy in the IRI-2016 model is found larger during the year 2012 than that during the solar minimum year 2009 at both the hemispheres. Further, an asymmetry index, (A_i) is determined to illustrate the North-South asymmetry observed in TEC at EIA crest. The seasonal, annual and solar flux dependence of this index are investigated during both solstices and compared with the TEC derived by IRI.     

Discriminating satellite IR anomalies associated with the MS 7.1 Yushu earthquake in China

In the process of exploring pre-earthquake thermal anomalies using satellite infrared data, Blackett et al. (2011) found that the previously reported anomalies before the 2001 Mw 7.7 Gujarat earthquake, in India, were related to positive biases caused by data gaps due to cloud cover and mosaicing of neighboring orbits of MODIS satellite data. They supposed that such effects could also be responsible for other cases. We noted a strip-shaped TIR anomaly on March 17th, 2010, 28?days before the Ms. 7.1 Yushu earthquake (Qin et al., 2011). Here we again investigate multi-year infrared satellite data in different bands to discriminate whether the anomaly is associated with the earthquake, or is only bias caused by the data gaps. From the water vapor images, we find lots of clouds that have TIR anomalies. However, on the cloudiness background, there is an obvious strip-shaped gap matching the tectonic faults almost perfectly. In particular, the animation loops of hourly water vapor images show that the cloud kept moving from west to east, while they never covered the strip-shaped gap. We consider that the cloud with this special spatial pattern should have implied the abnormal signals associated with the seismogenic process. Based on current physical models, the satellite IR anomalies both on TIR and water vapor bands can qualitatively be explained using synthetic mechanisms.