空管人因失效概率的THERP-CREAM预测方法

管制员的人为差错是导致航空器空中相撞的主要诱因,对空管人因失效概率进行有效预测是一个难题。为此,提出一种基于人误率预测技术（THERP）与认知可靠性和失误率分析模型CREAM）的组合空管人因失效概率预测方法,基于THERP 技术二叉树模型构建事故发展基本脉络,再基于CREAM 方法对各个人误行为触发概率进行修正,从而得出更为准确的概率预测结果。通过相似事故的对比分析,结果表明：本文提出的预测方法可识别关键性的事故影响因子,以便制定有针对性的管控措施,从而为研究预测空管人因失效概率提供了一种有效的分析手段。     

基于排队论的防空部署效率分析

为简化空防对抗中防空部署效率的分析,提出了一种基于排队论的分析方法。将作战过程视为先到先服务的服务系统,在目标持续入侵时目标流作为泊松申请,近、中/远程地空导弹武器集群分别为带失效和有限等待时间的排队系统。在一定的简化条件下建立了两种火力单元部署效率的数学模型。算例表明,该法可描述我方火力单元数、武器系统毁伤能力(服务时间)和空中目标流密度间的关系,能用于评估混编防空武器系统的部署效率,算法简单。     

试论防空导弹武器系统的保障性

论述了保障性与可靠性、维修性的关系，给出了防空导弹开口系统保障性的定义和目标，阐述了保障性的论证、设计、研制与评估的要点。提出保障性是设计出来的，是能保障与可保障两上方面的结合，必须将其纳入型号论证、设计全过程，必须与其他性能协调权衡；生设计是参数及其量值的设计，将保障性要求与目标转换成保障设计特 参一才能进行听软硬件设计。     

杂波环境下的机动目标检测和跟踪算法

交互多模式(IMM)是一种有效的机动目标跟踪算法,但由于其要求具有很多的先验前提条件而不利于工程实现.研究了一种杂波环境下更适合于工程实现的机动目标(同样适用非机动目标)的跟踪算法,该算法通过一种由测量位置估计误差决定的机动检测函数来实现杂波背景中的机动目标检测,并通过改变Kalman滤波的相关参数,实现自适应跟踪.该算法克服了IMM算法的模式限制和复杂性,同时也避免了对非机动目标的跟踪中,在跟踪模式间相互切换时所换造成的影响.通过在空管系统(ATC)的大量模拟实验,验证了该算法的有效性和重大应用价值.     

Comparison of alternative route selection strategies based on simulation optimization

Air traffic flow management (ATFM) is a collaborative process between the airspace provider and the airspace users. The result of the collaboration should be an outcome that maxi-mizes the utility of the system without excessively penalizing any of the agents. This paper develops a discrete-event simulation model which consists of aggregate departure/arrival airports, flight routes, and sectors for evaluating the alternative collaborative route selection strategy. Given the different perspectives from air traffic control center (ACC) and airlines, eight performance-metrics and five alternative route selection strategies represent the past, current and proposed air traffic flow management operations that were evaluated. The Monte Carlo method combined with the Optimal Computing Budget Allocation (OCBA) simulation optimization technique is employed to assess the performance of different strategies. A case study of the upper air routes in central and southern China shows that the proposed model can be readily implemented to simulate different kinds of air traffic flow management strategies and predict the effect of changes on the airspace sys-tem. It also shows that the proposed alternative collaborative route selection strategy is an effective way in alleviating the en-route traffic congestion.     

Tolerance of wheat and lettuce plants grown on human mineralized waste to high temperature stress

The main objective of a life support system for space missions is to supply a crew with food, water and oxygen, and to eliminate their wastes. The ultimate goal is to achieve the highest degree of closure of the system using controlled processes offering a high level of reliability and flexibility. Enhancement of closure of a biological life support system (BLSS) that includes plants relies on increased regeneration of plant waste, and utilization of solid and liquid human wastes. Clearly, the robustness of a BLSS subjected to stress will be substantially determined by the robustness of the plant components of the phototrophic unit. The aim of the present work was to estimate the heat resistance of two plants (wheat and lettuce) grown on human wastes. Human exometabolites mineralized by hydrogen peroxide in an electromagnetic field were used to make a nutrient solution for the plants. We looked for a possible increase in the heat tolerance of the wheat plants using changes in photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) intensity during heat stress. At age 15 days, plants were subjected to a rise in air temperature (from 23 ± 1 °C to 44 ± 1 °С) under different PAR intensities for 4 h. The status of the photosynthetic apparatus of the plants was assessed by external СО₂ gas exchange and fluorescence measurements. The increased irradiance of the plants during the high temperature period demonstrated its protective action for both the photosynthetic apparatus of the leaves and subsequent plant growth and development. The productivity of the plants subjected to temperature changes at 250 W m⁻² of PAR did not differ from that of controls, whereas the productivity of the plants subjected to the same heat stress but in darkness was halved.     

A multi-objective multi-memetic algorithm for network-wide conflict-free 4D flight trajectories planning

Under the demand of strategic air traffic flow management and the concept of trajectory based operations (TBO),the network-wide 4D flight trajectories planning (N4DFTP) problem has been investigated with the purpose of safely and efficiently allocating 4D trajectories (4DTs) (3D position and time) for all the flights in the whole airway network.Considering that the introduction of large-scale 4DTs inevitably increases the problem complexity,an efficient model for strategic level conflict management is developed in this paper.Specifically,a bi-objective N4DFTP problem that aims to minimize both potential conflicts and the trajectory cost is formulated.In consideration of the large-scale,high-complexity,and multi-objective characteristics of the N4DFTP problem,a multi-objective multi-memetic algorithm (MOMMA) that incorporates an evolutionary global search framework together with three problem-specific local search operators is implemented.It is capable of rapidly and effectively allocating 4DTs via rerouting,target time controlling,and flight level changing.Additionally,to balance the ability of exploitation and exploration of the algorithm,a special hybridization scheme is adopted for the integration of local and global search.Empirical studies using real air traffic data in China with different network complexities show that the pro posed MOMMA is effective to solve the N4DFTP problem.The solutions achieved are competitive for elaborate decision support under a TBO environment.     

我国航空运输需求价格弹性测算

根据经济学理论,同时结合我国航空运输的特点,通过引入我国GDP和我国航空运输每运输吨公里收入两个变量,利用线性回归分析的方法建立了我国航空运输需求函数,并根据需求函数绘制了我国航空运输需求曲线,然后根据需求函数和需求曲线测算了我国航空运输需求价格弹性值。最后,对本研究需要改进的方面进行了分析和总结。     

Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes and Global Electric Circuit

The electromagnetic coupling between the seismically activated area and the ionosphere is considered within the framework of the Global Electric Circuit (GEC) conception. First we consider the anomalous variations in the ionosphere associated with the earthquake preparation process, their temporal and spatial characteristics using the results from recent publications. Then the GEC conception is presented shortly with main accent put on ionization processes which play key role in the complex chain of physical and chemical interactions changing the electric properties of the planetary boundary layer of atmosphere. We treat this part of troposphere as an open complex system with dissipation where so called “blow up” processes are developed leading to sharp and fast changes of atmospheric parameters including the electric properties of the boundary layer. The new concept named Spatial Scintillation Index is introduced in the last part of the paper. In general, this paper may be considered as a short review of the recent achievements in understanding of the seismo-ionospheric coupling.     

飞机座舱供气品质分析

针对飞机供气异味问题,从飞机座舱供气原理出发,分析可能影响飞机座舱供气品质的因素,通过排查和检测找到供气异味的来源,采取相应措施保证座舱的供气品质,提出座舱供气品质的控制途径,为进一步的飞机座舱空气品质研究提供参考。