基于灰色关联分析的中国二氧化碳排放量影响因素分析(英文)

如何实现中国碳减排目标已经成为当前的研究热点,为完成减排目标首先要研究中国CO2排放量的影响因素。首先利用灰色关联分析方法选择与中国CO2排放量灰色关联度最高的3个变量:能源消费量、第三产业比重、外贸依存度。协整检验表明中国CO2排放量和3个影响因素之间存在长期协整关系,本文同时建立中国CO2排放量的长期协整方程和短期误差修正模型。运用误差修正模型得到的中国CO2排放量预测值与真实值的比较和得到的统计值均表明本文建立的模型有较好的解释能力和信度。     

论展示环境的色彩设计

色彩是展示设计的重要组成部分,是创造展示环境气氛不可缺少的表现形式之一.本文从色彩的特性与色彩构成的艺术角度,对展示设计各方面的色彩搭配进行探讨.     

Ti合金与SiC_p/Al复合材料在无压浸渗同步复合过程中的相容性

采用熔铝无压浸渗复合工艺在高体份SiCp／Al复合材料制备过程中同步复合Ti合金零部件（圆柱体）,研究了这种跨宏-微观尺度、超混杂铝基复合材料的微观组织及性能,特别是SiCp／Al复合材料与Ti合金零部件之间的相容性。结果表明,复合材料性能优异、组织致密,SiC颗粒分布均匀、无偏聚现象。SiCp／Al复合材料与Ti合金之间的界面结合非常紧密,Ti元素向铝合金基体一侧有一定距离的扩散,并且出现了可增强界面结合的连续、无缺陷的界面反应物薄层,SEM和XRD分析表明界面反应产物为Al2Ti,界面剪切强度超过200MPa,完全可以满足在复合材料中的Ti合金零部件处加工装配孔的要求。     

并联机构组合式自动建模研究

并联机床设计数字化需要实现其核心部分并联机构的高效建模与仿真.在并联机构组合建模和抽象字符串描述的基础上,探讨了并联机构组合式自动建模的原理和算法.所开发的并联机构组合式自动建模模块可以实现高效的并联机构数字化设计、建模与仿真.      

电机系统模型预测控制研究综述

近年来,模型预测控制(MPC)的理论和技术得到了长足发展,应用前景广阔。介绍了MPC的基本原理;简要对比分析了国内外电机系统MPC技术的研究概况。研究了有限控制集模型预测控制(FCSMPC)应用于电机驱动系统的控制方案。总结了FCSMPC关于价值函数设计、计算量降低、矢量作用个数以及鲁棒性提高等方面的研究思路。展望了未来FCSMPC技术需要进一步深入和拓展的研究方向。     

A variational Bayesian-based robust adaptive filtering for precise point positioning using undifferenced and uncombined observations

In the application of precise point positioning (PPP), especially in the dynamic mode, the classical Kalman filter (KF) usually produces a large number of estimation errors or diverges when there are gross errors in the observation data or unexpected turbulences occur in target motion state or both of them. For such problem, a variational Bayesian (VB)-based robust adaptive Kalman filtering (VB-RAKF) is proposed in this paper. This filter introduces a classification robust equivalent weight function to resist observation gross error and the inverse Wishart prior to model inaccurate process noise covariance matrix (PNCM). To improve the instantaneous accuracy of state estimation, the VB approach is used to obtain better estimations of inaccurate PNCM. Several sets of observation data collected by IGS reference stations and vehicles are employed to check the robustness and positioning accuracy of the VB-RAKF model. The results show that the VB-RAKF algorithm is more robust than the KF, and can effectively resist the gross error in observation data and control state disturbance. In the IGS reference station tests, when compared to the KF, the static positioning accuracies of the VB-RAKF in the north, east and up directions are improved by 13%, 8% and 22%, respectively, and the simulated dynamic positioning accuracies of the VB-RAKF in the north, east and up directions are improved by 19%, 9% and 21%, respectively. The in-vehicle dynamic test verifies that the VB-RAKF outperforms the KF, and shows that the VB-RAKF has better performance than the KF when dealing with observation data which has obvious gross errors, and similar performance as the KF when gross errors are small.     

Crustal deformation characteristics of Sichuan-Yunnan region in China on the constraint of multi-periods of GPS velocity fields

In order to obtain deformation parameters in each block of Sichuan-Yunnan Region (SYG) in China by stages and establish a dynamic model about the variation of the strain rate fields and the surface expansion in this area, we taken the Global Positioning System (GPS) sites velocity in the region as constrained condition and taken advantage of the block strain calculation model based on spherical surface. We also analyzed the deformation of the active blocks in the whole SYG before and after the Wenchuan earthquake, and analyzed the deformation of active blocks near the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake in detail. The results show that, (1) Under the effects of the carving from India plate and the crimping from the potential energy of Tibetan Plateau for a long time, there is a certain periodicity in crustal deformation in SYG. And the period change and the earthquake occurrence have a good agreement. (2) The differences in GPS velocity fields relative Eurasian reference frame shows that the Wenchuan earthquake and the Ya'an earthquake mainly affect the crustal movement in the central and southern part of SYG, and the average velocity difference is about 4–8?mm/a for the Wenchuan earthquake and 2–4?mm/a for the Ya'an earthquake. (3) For the Wenchuan earthquake, the average strain changed from 10 to 20 nanostrian/a before earthquake to 40–50 nanostrian/a after the earthquake, but before and after the Ya’an earthquake, the strain value increased from about 15 nanostrian/a to about 30 nanostrian/a. (4) The Wenchuan earthquake has changed the strain parameter of each active block more or less. Especially, the Longmen block and Chengdu block near the epicenter. The research provides fundamental material for the study of the dynamic mechanism of the push extrusion from the north-east of the India plate and the crimp from Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and it also provides support for the study of crustal stress variation and earthquake prediction in Sichuan Yunnan region.     

Characterisation of residual ionospheric errors in bending angles using GNSS RO end-to-end simulations

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) is an innovative meteorological remote sensing technique for measuring atmospheric parameters such as refractivity, temperature, water vapour and pressure for the improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and global climate monitoring (GCM). GNSS RO has many unique characteristics including global coverage, long-term stability of observations, as well as high accuracy and high vertical resolution of the derived atmospheric profiles. One of the main error sources in GNSS RO observations that significantly affect the accuracy of the derived atmospheric parameters in the stratosphere is the ionospheric error. In order to mitigate the effect of this error, the linear ionospheric correction approach for dual-frequency GNSS RO observations is commonly used. However, the residual ionospheric errors (RIEs) can be still significant, especially when large ionospheric disturbances occur and prevail such as during the periods of active space weather. In this study, the RIEs were investigated under different local time, propagation direction and solar activity conditions and their effects on RO bending angles are characterised using end-to-end simulations. A three-step simulation study was designed to investigate the characteristics of the RIEs through comparing the bending angles with and without the effects of the RIEs. This research forms an important step forward in improving the accuracy of the atmospheric profiles derived from the GNSS RO technique.     

伴有滑动床的水砂浆体倾斜管道流动研究

为进一步研究伴有滑动床的倾斜浆体管道砂颗粒输送规律，应用力平衡理论，研究了悬浮层、滑动床层速度以及滑动床厚度求解方法，由此给出了倾斜管道淤积临界速度迭代求解方法。同时，应用悬浮层剪应力线性分布假设，并借助普朗特经验公式，给出了滑动床上方速度分布模型。粗砂管道水力输送实验数据表明:（1）淤积临界流速与颗粒粒径和输送浓度负相关，输送浓度不变时，淤积临界流速与管道倾角大小正相关。与模型计算结果对比表明淤积临界速度计算值和实测值最大偏差为13%；（2）随着管道倾角增加，最大速度点位置有向上偏移的趋势。与计算结果对比表明上层速度分布理论模型计算值和实测值偏差不超过10%。结果表明力平衡理论和剪应力线性分布假设能够较好地用于伴有滑动床的倾斜粗砂浆体管道淤积临界速度和滑动床上方速度分布预测研究。