Survey of maneuvering target tracking. Part V. Multiple-model methods

This is the fifth part of a series of papers that provide a comprehensive survey of techniques for tracking maneuvering targets without addressing the so-called measurement-origin uncertainty. Part I and Part II deal with target motion models. Part III covers measurement models and associated techniques. Part IV is concerned with tracking techniques that are based on decisions regarding target maneuvers. This part surveys the multiple-model methods $the use of multiple models (and filters) simultaneously - which is the prevailing approach to maneuvering target tracking in recent years. The survey is presented in a structured way, centered around three generations of algorithms: autonomous, cooperating, and variable structure. It emphasizes the underpinning of each algorithm and covers various issues in algorithm design, application, and performance.     

A parallel square-root algorithm for modified extended Kalmanfilter

A parallel square-root algorithm and its systolic array implementation are proposed for performing modified extended Kalman filtering (MEKF). The proposed parallel square-root algorithm is designed based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) and the Faddeev algorithm, and a very large scale integration (VLSI) systolic array architecture is developed for its implementation. Compared to other square root Kalman filtering algorithms, the proposed method is more numerically stable. The VLSI architecture described has good parallel and pipelining characteristics in applying to the MEKF and achieves higher efficiency. For n-dimensional state vector estimations, the proposed architecture consists of O(2n²) processing elements and uses O ((s+17)n) time-steps for a complete iteration at each instant, in contrast to the complexity of O((s+6) n³) time-steps for a sequential implementation, where s≈log n     

Studying the evolution of the hot universe with the X-ray evolving universe spectroscopy mission – XEUS

Europe is one of the major partners building the International Space Station (ISS) and European industry, together with ESA, is responsible for many station components including the Columbus Orbital Facility, the Automated Transport Vehicle, two connecting modules and the European Robotic Arm. Together with this impressive list of contributions there is a strong desire within the ESA Member States to benefit from this investment by utilizing the unique capabilities of the ISS to perform world-class science. XEUS is one of the astronomical applications being studied by ESA to utilize the capabilities of the ISS. XEUS will be a long-term X-ray observatory with an initial mirror area of 6 m² at 1 keV that will be expanded to 30 m² following a visit to the ISS. The 1 keV spatial resolution is expected to be 2–5″ half-energy-width. XEUS will consist of separate detector and mirror spacecraft (MSC) aligned by active control to provide a focal length of 50 m. A new detector spacecraft, complete with the next generation of instruments, will also be added after visiting the ISS. The limiting 0.1–2.5 keV sensitivity will then be 4 × 10⁻¹⁸ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹, around 200 times better than XMM-Newton, allowing XEUS to study the properties of the hot baryons and dark matter at high redshift.     

Influence of Fast Global Variations of Solar Magnetic Fields on Space Weather in Cycle 23

It is established that the large-scale and global magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere do not change smoothly, and long-lasting periods of gradual variations are superseded by fast structural changes of the global magnetic field. Periods of fast global changes on the Sun are accompanied by anomalous manifestations in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field. There is a regular recurrence of these periods in each cycle of solar activity, and the periods are characterized by enhanced flaring activity that reflects fast changes in magnetic structures. Is demonstrated, that the fast changes have essential influencing on a condition of space weather, as most strong geophysical disturbances are connected to sporadic phenomena on the Sun. An explanation has been offered for the origin of anomalous geomagnetic disturbances that are unidentifiable in traditionally used solar activity indices. Is shown, main physical mechanism that leads to fast variations of the magnetic fields in the Sun's atmosphere is the reconnection process.     

A permanently-acting NEA damage mitigation technique via the Yarkovsky effect

In the later stages of a combined mission of exploration and damage mitigation of a hazardous Near Earth Asteroid (NEA), sufficiently detailed tracking, orbit prediction, mass distribution, and physical properties data have been accumulated. It may be desirable to implement a “slow push” damage mitigation technique that is capable of altering the NEA orbit continuously and permanently. This possibility was suggested in a companion paper that outlined an archetypal exploration/mitigation mission to the NEA 99942 Apophis, which is achieved using a novel albedo change approach. The details and apparatus used in the albedo modification technique are described in the paper. We describe the design details and the constraints on particle size (to prevent electrostatic levitation and escape) and on the dispensing speed (to achieve the desired coverage zone and prevent particles from orbiting or escaping).     

Three-dimensional global simulation of multiple ICMEs’ interaction and propagation from the Sun to the heliosphere following the 25–28 October 2003 solar events

This study performs simulations of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) propagation in a realistic three-dimensional (3D) solar wind structure from the Sun to the Earth by using the newly developed hybrid code, HAFv.2+3DMHD. This model combines two simulation codes, Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry code version 2 (HAFv.2) and a fully 3D, time-dependent MHD simulation code. The solar wind structure is simulated out to 0.08 AU (18 Rs) from source surface maps using the HAFv.2 code. The outputs at 0.08 AU are then used to provide inputs for the lower boundary, at that location, of the 3D MHD code to calculate solar wind and its evolution to 1 AU and beyond. A dynamic disturbance, mimicking a particular flare’s energy output, is delivered to this non-uniform structure to model the evolution and interplanetary propagation of ICMEs (including their shocks). We then show the interaction between two ICMEs and the dynamic process during the overtaking of one shock by the other. The results show that both CMEs and heliosphere current sheet/plasma sheet were deformed by interacting with each other.     

Particle acceleration and transport at an oblique CME-driven shock

In gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events, protons and heavy ions are often accelerated to >100 MeV/nucleon at a CME-driven shock. In this work, we study particle acceleration at an oblique shock by extending our earlier particle acceleration and transport in heliosphere (PATH) code to include shocks with arbitrary θ_BN, where θ_BN is the angle between the upstream magnetic field and the shock normal. Instantaneous particle spectra at the shock front are obtained by solving the transport equation using the total diffusion coefficient κ, which is a function of the parallel diffusion coefficient κ_∥ and the perpendicular diffusion coefficient κ_⊥. In computing κ_∥ and κ_⊥, we use analytic expressions derived previously. The particle maximum energy at the shock front as a function of time, the time intensity profiles and particle spectra at 1 AU for five θ_BN’s are calculated for an example shock.     

Detection and diagnosis of sensor and actuator failures using IMMestimator

An approach to detection and diagnosis of multiple failures in a dynamic system is proposed. It is based on the interacting multiple-model (IMM) estimation algorithm, which is one of the most cost-effective adaptive estimation techniques for systems involving structural as well as parametric changes. The proposed approach provides an integrated framework for fault detection, diagnosis, and state estimation. It is able to detect and isolate multiple faults substantially more quickly and more reliably than many existing approaches. Its superiority is illustrated in two aircraft examples for single and double faults of both sensors and actuators, in the forms of “total”, “partial”, and simultaneous failures. Both deterministic and random fault scenarios are designed and used for testing and comparing the performance fairly. Some new performance indices are presented. The robustness of the proposed approach to the design of model transition probabilities, fault modeling errors, and the uncertainties of noise statistics are also evaluated     

Multiple-model estimation with variable structure. IV. Design andevaluation of model-group switching algorithm

For pt. III see ibid., vol. 35, pp. 225-41 (1999). A variable-structure multiple-model (VSMM) estimator, called model-group switching (MGS) algorithm, has been presented in Part III, which is the first VSMM estimator that is generally applicable to a large class of problem with hybrid (continuous and discrete) uncertainties. In this algorithm, the model-set is made adaptive by switching among a number of predetermined groups of models. It has the potential to be substantially more cost-effective than fixed-structure MM (FSMM) estimators, including the Interacting Multiple-Model (IMM) estimator. A number of issues of major importance in the application of this algorithm are investigated here, including the model-group adaptation logic and model-group design. The results of this study are implemented via a detailed design for a problem of tracking a maneuvering target using a time-varying set of models, each characterized by a representative value of the expected acceleration of the target. Simulation results are given to demonstrate the performance (based on more reasonable and complete measures than commonly used rms errors alone) and computational complexity of the MGS algorithm, relative to the fixed-structure IMM (FSIMM) estimator using all models, under carefully designed and fair random and deterministic scenarios     

First Results from the THEMIS Mission

THEMIS was launched on February 17, 2007 to determine the trigger and large-scale evolution of substorms. During the first seven months of the mission the five satellites coasted near their injection orbit to avoid differential precession in anticipation of orbit placement, which started in September 2007 and led to a commencement of the baseline mission in December 2007. During the coast phase the probes were put into a string-of-pearls configuration at 100 s of km to 2 R_E along-track separations, which provided a unique view of the magnetosphere and enabled an unprecedented dataset in anticipation of the first tail season. In this paper we describe the first THEMIS substorm observations, captured during instrument commissioning on March 23, 2007. THEMIS measured the rapid expansion of the plasma sheet at a speed that is commensurate with the simultaneous expansion of the auroras on the ground. These are the first unequivocal observations of the rapid westward expansion process in space and on the ground. Aided by the remote sensing technique at energetic particle boundaries and combined with ancillary measurements and MHD simulations, they allow determination and mapping of space currents. These measurements show the power of the THEMIS instrumentation in the tail and the radiation belts. We also present THEMIS Flux Transfer Events (FTE) observations at the magnetopause, which demonstrate the importance of multi-point observations there and the quality of the THEMIS instrumentation in that region of space.