An Application of Evidential Networks to Threat Assessment

Decision makers operating in modern defence theatres need to comprehend and reason with huge quantities of potentially uncertain and imprecise data in a timely fashion. An automatic information fusion system is developed which aims at supporting a commander's decision making by providing a threat assessment, that is an estimate of the extent to which an enemy platform poses a threat based on evidence about its intent and capability. Threat is modelled by a network of entities and relationships between them, while the uncertainties in the relationships are represented by belief functions as defined in the theory of evidence. To support the implementation of the threat assessment functionality, an efficient valuation-based reasoning scheme, referred to as an evidential network, is developed. To reduce computational overheads, the scheme performs local computations in the network by applying an inward propagation algorithm to the underlying binary join tree. This allows the dynamic nature of the external evidence, which drives the evidential network, to be taken into account by recomputing only the affected paths in the binary join tree.     

Quality management for space systems in ISRO

In a little over four decades, the Indian Space Program has carved a niche for itself with the unique application driven program oriented towards National development. The end-to-end capability approach of the space projects in the country call for innovative practices and procedures in assuring the quality and reliability of space systems. The System Reliability (SR) efforts initiated at the start of the projects continue during the entire life cycle of the project encompassing design, development, realisation, assembly, testing and integration and during launch. Even after the launch, SR groups participate in the on-orbit evaluation of transponders in communication satellites and camera systems in remote sensing satellites. SR groups play a major role in identification, evaluation and inculcating quality practices in work centres involved in the fabrication of mechanical, electronics and propulsion systems required for Indian Space Research Organization's (ISRO's) launch vehicle and spacecraft projects. Also the reliability analysis activities like prediction, assessment and demonstration as well as de-rating analysis, Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and worst-case analysis are carried out by SR groups during various stages of project realisation. These activities provide the basis for project management to take appropriate techno-managerial decisions to ensure that the required reliability goals are met. Extensive test facilities catering to the needs of the space program has been set up. A system for consolidating the experience and expertise gained for issue of standards called product assurance specifications to be used in all ISRO centres has also been established.     

CREAM: 70 days of flight from 2 launches in Antarctica

The Cosmic-Ray Energetics And Mass balloon-borne experiment has been launched twice in Antarctica, first in December 2004 and again in December 2005. It circumnavigated the South Pole three times during the first flight, which set a flight duration record of 42 days. A cumulative duration of 70 days within 13 months was achieved when the second flight completed 28 days during two circumnavigations of the Pole on 13 January 2006. Both the science instrument and support systems functioned extremely well, and a total 117 GB of data including 67 million science events were collected during these two flights. Preliminary analysis indicates that the data extend well above 100 TeV and follow reasonable power laws. The payload recovered from the first flight has been refurbished for the third flight in 2007, whereas the payload from the second flight is being refurbished to be ready for the fourth flight in 2008. Each flight will extend the reach of precise cosmic-ray composition measurements to energies not previously possible.     

Sensor validation using hardware-based on-line learning neuralnetworks

The objective of this document Is to show the capabilities of parallel hardware-based on-line learning neural networks (NNs). This specific application is related to an on-line estimation problem for sensor validation purposes. Neural-network-based microprocessors are starting to be commercially available. However, most of them feature a learning performed with the classic back-propagation algorithm (BPA). To overcome this lack of flexibility a customized motherboard with transputers was implemented for this investigation, The extended BPA (EBPA), a modified and more effective BPA, was used for the on-line learning, These parallel hardware-based neural architectures were used to implement a sensor failure detection, identification, and accommodation scheme in the model of a night control system assumed to be without physical redundancy in the sensory capabilities. The results of this study demonstrate the potential for these neural schemes for implementation in actual flight control systems of modern high performance aircraft, taking advantage of the characteristics of the extended back-propagation along with the parallel computation capabilities of NN customized hardware     

Plant reproduction systems in microgravity: experimental data and hypotheses.

Elucidation of the possibilities for higher plants to realize complete ontogenesis, from seed to seed, and to propagate by seeds in microgravity, is a fundamental task of space biology connected with the working of the CELSS program. At present, there are results of only 6 spaceflight experiments with Arabidopsis thaliana, an ephemeral plant which will flower and fruit in orbit. Morphogenesis of generative organs occurs normally in microgravity, but unlike the ground control, buds and flowers mainly contain sterile elements of the androecium and gynoecium which degenerate at different stages of development in microgravity. Cytological peculiarities of male and female sterility in microgravity are similar to those occurring naturally during sexual differentiation. Many of the seed formed in microgravity do not contain embryos. Hypotheses to explain abnormal reproductive development in microgravity are: 1) nutritional deficiency, 2) insufficient light, 3) intensification of the influence of the above-mentioned factors by microgravity, 4) disturbances of a hormonal nature, and 5) the absence of pollination and fertilization. Possible ways for testing these hypotheses and obtaining viable seeds in microgravity are discussed.     

Effect of “Noisy” sun conditions on aircrew radiation exposure

In computer codes used to estimate the aircrew radiation exposure from galactic cosmic radiation, a quiet sun model is usually assumed. A revised computer code (PCAIRE ver. 8.0f) is used to calculate the impact of noisy sun conditions on aircrew radiation exposure. The revised code incorporates the effect of solar storm activity, which can perturb the geomagnetic field lines, altering cutoff rigidities and hence the shielding capability of the Earth’s magnetic field. The effect of typical solar storm conditions on aircrew radiation exposure is shown to be minimal justifying the usual assumptions.     

Crop Dusting using GPS

Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers and GPS-based swath guidance systems are used on agricultural aircraft for remote sensing, airplane guidance, and to support variable-rate aerial application of crop inputs such as insecticides, cotton growth regulators, and defoliants. Agricultural aircraft travel at much greater speeds than ground equipment (65 m/s, typically), so longitudinal (along-track) error in GPS-derived position is likely to be pronounced. Due to rapid ground speeds, determination of exact GPS-derived aircraft location requires special methodologies. To meet the need for determining ground position accurately, a ground-based spotting system using two strategically placed mirrors was designed to reflect sunlight to the belly of the aircraft when the plane passed over a ground reference point. The light beam was detected by a photocell on the airplane, causing a solid state relay to close through appropriate circuitry. When the relay closed, a record was placed in the data file for the airplane's Satloc GPS receiver, accurate to 0.01 s allowing exact position to be logged. Two stand-alone GPS receivers were evaluated along with the Satloc system, and their readings were compared with readings from the Satloc. For one day of testing used as an example, the Satloc lagged the ground reference point by an average of -4.53 m (S.D. = 0.68) in the east-west directions and led the reference point in the north-south directions by an average of +7.88 m (S.D. = 0.52). Positioning data from one stand-alone GPS receiver showed a distinct ground speed dependency, making it unsuitable for use in aircraft. Output from the other receiver (designed for aircraft use) was insensitive to ground speed changes but exhibited a look-ahead equivalent to 2-s at the ground speeds evaluated.     

Enhancing the ATIC charge resolution

The Advanced Thin Ionization Calorimeter (ATIC) experiment is designed to investigate the charge composition and energy spectra of primary cosmic rays over the energy range from about 10¹¹ to 10¹⁴ eV during Long Duration Balloon (LDB) flights from McMurdo, Antarctica. Currently, analysis from the ATIC-1 test flight and ATIC-2 science flight is underway and preparation for a second science flight is in progress. Charge identification of the incident cosmic ray is accomplished, primarily, by a pixilated Silicon Matrix detector located at the very top of the instrument. While it has been shown that the Silicon Matrix detector provides good charge identification even in the presence of electromagnetic shower backscatter from the calorimeter, the detector only measures the charge once. In this paper, we examine use of the top scintillator hodoscope detector to provide a second measure of the cosmic ray charge and, thus, improve the ATIC charge identification.     

The Initial Stage of “Space Debris” Cloud Formation during Planetary Satellite Breakdown

The process of formation of a particles cloud (space debris) during breakdown of the Earth’s Artificial Satellite (EAS) is considered. A system of equations of motion is derived, and its analytical solution in the linear approximation for circular orbits is presented. The distinction between this solution and an exact numerical solution is indicated. The cases of satellite breakdown at the apogee and perigee on an elliptic orbit are also considered, and some characteristics of these processes are compared.__________Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 43, No. 4, 2005, pp. 269–273.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Gorelov, Zarubkin.     

The coronal dynamics imagers for the KuaFu mission

The Space Weather Explorer – KuaFu mission will provide simultaneous, long-term, and synoptic observations of the complete chain of disturbances from the solar atmosphere to the geospace. KuaFu-A (located at the L1 liberation point) includes Coronal Dynamics Imagers composed of a Lyman-α coronagraph (from 1.15 to 2.7 solar radii) and a white light coronagraph (out to 15 solar radii), in order to identify the initial sources of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their acceleration profiles. The difficulty of observing the lower corona should not be underestimated since instrumental stray light remains a critical issue in the visible because of the low contrast of the corona with respect to the Sun. Observing the corona in the Lyman-α line is a valid alternative to white light observations. This approach takes advantage of both the intrinsic higher contrast of the corona with respect to the solar disk in this line compared to the visible, and the absence of F-corona at 121.6 nm. Furthermore, it has been convincingly shown that the coronal structures seen in Lyman-α correspond to those seen in the visible and which result from Thomson scattering of the coronal ionized gas. This is because the plasma is still collisional in the lower corona so that the hydrogen neutral atoms are coupled to the protons. A classical, all-reflecting internally-occulted Lyot coronagraph is required so as to preserve the image quality down to the inner limit of the field-of-view. A narrow band interference filter located in a collimated beam allows isolating the Lyman-α line. The visible coronagraph will adopt the approach of a single instrument having a large field-of-view extending from 2.5 to 15 solar radii. Such a design is based on refractive externally-occulted coronagraphs built for recent past missions, essentially the LASCO-C2 and C3 instruments and the SECCHI/COR 2 of the STEREO mission, which is itself a combination of the C2 and C3 instruments.