Solar Cycle Forecasting

Predicting the behavior of a solar cycle after it is well underway (2–3 years after minimum) can be done with a fair degree of skill using auto-regression and curve fitting techniques that don’t require any knowledge of the physics involved. Predicting the amplitude of a solar cycle near, or before, the time of solar cycle minimum can be done using precursors such as geomagnetic activity and polar fields that do have some connection to the physics but the connections are uncertain and the precursors provide less reliable forecasts. Predictions for the amplitude of cycle 24 using these precursor techniques give drastically different values. Recently, dynamo models have been used directly with assimilated data to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle 24 but have also given significantly different predictions. While others have questioned both the predictability of the solar cycle and the ability of current dynamo models to provide predictions, it is clear that cycle 24 will help to discriminate between some opposing dynamo models.     

Carbon monoxide spatial gradients over source regions as observed by SCIAMACHY: A case study for the United Kingdom

Carbon monoxide (CO) is an important air pollutant whose emissions and atmospheric concentrations need to be monitored. The measurements of the SCIAMACHY instrument on ENVISAT are sensitive to CO concentration changes at all atmospheric altitude levels including the boundary layer. The SCIAMACHY CO measurements therefore contain information on CO emissions. Until now no studies have been published where the SCIAMACHY CO measurements have been used to quantify CO emissions by applying, for example, inverse modelling approaches. Here we report about a step in this direction. We have analysed three years of CO columns to investigate if spatial gradients resulting from United Kingdom (UK) CO emissions can be observed from space. The UK is an interesting target area because the UK is a relatively well isolated CO source region. On the other hand, the UK is not the easiest target as its emissions are only moderate and because the surrounding water has low reflectivity in the 2.3 μm spectral region used for CO retrieval. We determined horizontal CO gradients from seasonally and yearly averaged CO during 2003–2005 over the UK taking into account daily wind fields. We show that the measured CO longitudinal (downwind) gradients have the expected order of magnitude. The estimated 2σ error of the gradients depends on time period and applied filtering criteria (e.g., land only, cloud free) and is typically 10–20% of the total column. The gradients are barely statistically significant within the 2σ error margin. This is mainly because of the relatively high noise of the SCIAMACHY CO measurements in combination with a quite low number of measurements (∼100) mainly due to cloud cover.     

民用直升机MRO市场减速慢行

在金融危机发生之前,航空战略咨询公司曾预计2009年国际直升机MRO市场的增长速度是3%,达到56亿美元.但考虑到目前的经济状况,2009年民用直升机的MRO市场会比2008年减少5%～10%.这主要是因为直升机的使用率在下降,以及金融危机爆发之前高企的油价所致.(本文所指的民用直升机还包括经过特殊改装后的军用和准军用直升机,但不包括武装直升机.)     

Toward a theoretical description of vortex wake asymmetry

Previous studies have suggested that the asymmetric vortex wake which develops behind an axisymmetric body at angle of attack is the result of the amplification of a disturbance introduced at the tip of the body. The potential-flow vortex wake of a circular cylinder in cross-flow is examined and similarities to the wake of the axisymmetric body at incidence are described. The implications of these similarities for the suggested model are discussed, and an argument is made that the vortex trajectories are fixed at a given angle of attack and shifted upstream or downstream by the initial disturbance. The need for further detailed experimental studies of the asymmetric vortex wake development is noted.     

Coronal disturbances and their terrestrial effects

Coronal disturbances lead to geomagnetic storms, proton showers, auroras and a wide variety of other phenomena at Earth. Yet, attempts to link interplanetary and terrestrial phenomena to specific varieties of coronal disturbances have achieved only limited success. Here, several recent approaches to prediction of interplanetary consequences of coronal disturbances are reviewed. The relationships of shocks and energetic particles to coronal transients, of proton events to γ-ray bursts, of proton events to microwave bursts, of geomagnetic storms to filament eruptions and of solar wind speed increases to the flare site magnetic field direction are explored. A new phenomenon, transient coronal holes, is discussed. These voids in the corona appear astride the long decay enhancements (LDE's) of 2–50 Å X-ray emission that follow Hα filament eruptions. The transient holes are similar to long-lived coronal holes, which are the sources of high speed solar wind streams. There is some evidence that transient coronal holes are associated with transient solar wind speed increases.     

Influence of freezing rate changes on MnBiBi eutectic microstructure

In an attempt to explain the influence of space processing on the microstructure of MnBiBi, eutectic mixtures were directionally solidified with a sudden change of translation rate. The MnBi fiber spacing was able to adapt to the changing freezing rate as predicted by heat transfer computations. Thus the microstructure adapts more rapidly than the freezing rate could be changed in the present experiments.     

Studies of the radiation budget anomalies over Antarctica during 1974–1983, and their possible relationship to climatic variations

We present the results of a study of anomalies, which are defined as differences of seasonal means from the data set seasonal means, in the Earth's radiation budget from the analysis of nine years of ten day mean observations derived from the NOAA polar orbiter satellites for the period, 1974–1983. We estimate that the standard deviation in the outgoing longwave flux for this period is less than 12 Wm^?2 and typically 7 Wm^?2. The results show that there are several geographical areas for which the standard deviation is in excess of 20 Wm^?2; in such regions the radiation budget anomalies exceeded these due to natural atmospheric variability. In this paper we discuss the relationship of these anomalies with climatic change.     

Past and future of radio occultation studies of planetary atmospheres

Measurements of radio waves that have propagated through planetary atmospheres have provided exploratory results on atmospheric constituents, structure, dynamics, and ionization for Venus, Mars, Titan, Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus. Highlights of past results are reviewed in order to define and illustrate the potential of occultation and related radio studies in future planetary missions.     

Nonisotropic turbulence in swirling flows

Recent experimental, inverse and prediction studies have disputed isotropy assumptions for turbulent swirling flows. To cater for the simulation (and hence solution) of these flows, simple turbulence models may be modified or more advanced models developed. This paper reviews recent work in this area, clarifies the entent of nonisotropy and recommends suitable turbulence models to effect closure of the governing Reynolds equations.     

Sensor data for forest policy information

NASA-Ames Research Center has investigated the role and performance capabilities of the Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) for forest policy analysis for the past four years in cooperation with the California Department of Forestry. A thorough series of studies, from a statewide land cover map to smaller, highly detailed studies including collateral data, have been conducted with a view to comprehensive forest policy needs. The strengths and limitations of MSS data have been evaluated. Some observations about the information needed from new satellite sensors such as the Thematic Mapper are discussed against this background.