Resonance in a coupled solar-climate model

The 11–year solar activity cycle is magnetic in origin and is responsible for small changes in solar luminosity and the modulation of the solar wind. The terrestrial climate exhibits much internal variability supporting oscillations with many frequencies. The direct effect of changing solar irradiance in driving climatic change is believed to be small, and amplification mechanisms are needed to enhance the role of solar variability. In this paper we demonstrate that resonance may play a crucial role in the dynamics of the climate system, by using the output from a nonlinear solar dynamo model as a weak input to a simplified climate model. The climate is modelled as oscillating about two fixed points (corresponding to a warm and cold state) with the weak chaotically modulated solar forcing on average pushing the solution towards the warm state. When a typical frequency of the input is similar to that of the chaotic climate system then a dramatic increase in the role of the solar forcing is apparent and complicated intermittent behaviour is observed. The nonlinear effects are subtle however, and forcing that on average pushes the solution towards the warm state may lead to increased intervals of oscillation about either state. Owing to the intermittent nature of the timeseries, analysis of the relevant timeseries is shown to be non-trivial.     

The earth explorer candidates: Nine focused missions, all satellite classes

The size of a satellite should follow naturally from the mission requirements taking into account implementation constraints, notably the choice of launcher and programmatics. The key concepts are “focused mission” and “maximum return for the investment”. The nine candidates proposed for the ESA Earth Explorer programme of research missions form a good representative set to illustrate a discussion of satellite classes. These focused missions lead to satellites from less than 100 kg and 100 W, to more than 2000 kg and 2 kW of power generation and include flights of opportunity and precursor experiments.     

CASH 2021: commercial access and space habitation

Issues about commercialization of space have been a growing concern in the past decade for the space community. This paper focuses on the work from a team of 51 students attending the Summer Session Program of the International Space University in Bremen, Germany. CASH 2021 (Commercial Access and Space Habitation) documents a plan that identifies commercial opportunities for space utilization that will extend human presence in space, and will chart the way forward for the next 20 years. The group selected four commercial sectors that show the most promise for the future: tourism, entertainment, space system service, assembly and debris removal, and research and development/production. The content of this document presents the results of their research. Historical activities in each of the commercial sectors are reviewed along with the current market situation. To provide a coherent background for future commercialization possibilities a scenario has been developed. This scenario includes a postulated upon ideal future and includes social, political and economic factors that may affect the space industry over the timeline of the study. The study also presents a roadmap, within the limited optimistic scenario developed, for the successful commercialization of space leading to future human presence in space. A broad range of commercially viable opportunities, not only within the current limits of the International Space Station, but also among the many new developments that are expected by 2021 are discussed.     

The topside sounder database – Data screening and systematic biases

The ionospheric topside sounder measurement database developed at the US National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC) is a valuable source of information when investigating the composition and complex dynamics of the upper ionosphere. The database is increasingly used by many scientists around the world for both research and development of empirical models. However, there is always a danger of indiscriminately using the data without properly assessing the data quality and applicability for a given purpose. This paper is concerned with the issue of data screening and pre-processing of the Alouette/ISIS topside sounder database. An overview of the original database availability and formatting is given and the use of solar and geomagnetic indices is discussed. Data screening procedures, concerning detection and handling of erroneous profiles, are also presented. Special attention is drawn to the systematic biases observed in the database and the possibilities for their removal.     

Cometary Deuterium

Deuterium fractionations in cometary ices provide important clues to the origin and evolution of comets. Mass spectrometers aboard spaceprobe Giotto revealed the first accurate D/H ratios in the water of Comet 1P/Halley. Ground-based observations of HDO in Comets C/1996 B2 (Hyakutake) and C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp), the detection of DCN in Comet Hale-Bopp, and upper limits for several other D-bearing molecules complement our limited sample of D/H measurements. On the basis of this data set all Oort cloud comets seem to exhibit a similar ratio in H₂O, enriched by about a factor of two relative to terrestrial water and approximately one order of magnitude relative to the protosolar value. Oort cloud comets, and by inference also classical short-period comets derived from the Kuiper Belt cannot be the only source for the Earth's oceans. The cometary O/C ratio and dynamical reasons make it difficult to defend an early influx of icy planetesimals from the Jupiter zone to the early Earth. D/H measurements of OH groups in phyllosilicate rich meteorites suggest a mixture of cometary water and water adsorbed from the nebula by the rocky grains that formed the bulk of the Earth may be responsible for the terrestrial D/H. The D/H ratio in cometary HCN is 7 times higher than the value in cometary H₂O. Species-dependent D-fractionations occur at low temperatures and low gas densities via ion-molecule or grain-surface reactions and cannot be explained by a pure solar nebula chemistry. It is plausible that cometary volatiles preserved the interstellar D fractionation. The observed D abundances set a lower limit to the formation temperature of (30 ± 10) K. Similar numbers can be derived from the ortho-to-para ratio in cometary water, from the absence of neon in cometary ices and the presence of S₂. Noble gases on Earth and Mars, and the relative abundance of cometary hydrocarbons place the comet formation temperature near 50 K. So far all cometary D/H measurements refer to bulk compositions, and it is conceivable that significant departures from the mean value could occur at the grain-size level. Strong isotope effects as a result of coma chemistry can be excluded for molecules H₂O and HCN. A comparison of the cometary ratio with values found in the atmospheres of the outer planets is consistent with the long-held idea that the gas planets formed around icy cores with a high cometary D/H ratio and subsequently accumulated significant amounts of H₂ from the solar nebula with a low protosolar D/H. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Contributions of Comets to Planets, Atmospheres, and Life: Insights from Cassini-Huygens, Galileo, Giotto, and Inner Planet Missions

Comets belong to a group of small bodies generally known as icy planetesimals. Today the most primitive icy planetesimals are the Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) occupying a roughly planar domain beyond Neptune. KBOs may be scattered inward, allowing them to collide with planets. Others may move outward, some all the way into the Oort cloud. This is a spherical distribution of comet nuclei at a mean distance of ～50,000 AU. These nuclei are occasionally perturbed into orbits that intersect the paths of the planets, again allowing collisions. The composition of the atmosphere of Jupiter—and thus possibly all outer planets—shows the effects of massive early contributions from extremely primitive icy bodies that must have been close relatives of the KBOs. Titan may itself have a composition similar to that of Oort cloud comets. The origin and early evolution of its atmosphere invites comparison with that of the early Earth. Impacts of comets must have brought water and other volatile compounds to the Earth and the other inner planets, contributing to the reservoir of key ingredients for the origin of life. The magnitude of these contributions remains unknown but should be accessible to measurements by instruments on spacecraft.     

Touring the saturnian system: the atmospheres of titan and saturn

This report follows the presentation originally given in the ESA Phase A Study for the Cassini Huygens Mission. The combination of the Huygens atmospheric probe into Titan's atmosphere with the Cassini orbiter allows for both in-situ and remote-sensing observations of Titan. This not only provides a rich harvest of data about Saturn's famous satellite but will permit a useful calibration of the remote-sensing instruments which will also be used on Saturn itself. Composition, thermal structure, dynamics, aeronomy, magnetosphere interactions and origins will all be investigated for the two atmospheres, and the spacecraft will also deliver information on the interiors of both Titan and Saturn. As the surface of Titan is intimately linked with the atmosphere, we also discuss some of the surface studies that will be carried out by both probe and orbiter. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Testing Modified Newtonian Dynamics with LISA Pathfinder

We suggest that LISA Pathfinder, a technology demonstrator for the future gravitational wave observatory LISA, could be used to carry out a direct experimental test of Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND). The LISA Pathfinder spacecraft is currently being built and the launch date is just a few years away. No modifications of the spacecraft are required, nor any interference with its nominal mission. The basic concept is to fly LISA Pathfinder through the region around the Sun-Earth saddle point, in an extended mission phase, once the original mission goals are achieved. We examine various strategies to reach the saddle point, and find that the preferred strategy, yielding relatively short transfer times of just over 1 year, probably involves a lunar fly-by. LISA Pathfinder will be able to probe the intermediate MOND regime, i.e. the transition between deep MOND and Newtonian gravity. We present robust estimates of the anomalous gravity gradients that LISA Pathfinder should be exposed to, based on MONDian effects as derived from the Tensor-Vector-Scalar (TeVeS) theory. The spacecraft speed and spatial scale of the MOND signal combine in a way that the spectral signature of the signal falls precisely into LISA Pathfinder’s measurement bandwidth. We find that if the gravity gradiometer on-board the spacecraft achieves its currently predicted sensitivity, these anomalous gradients could not just be detected, but measured in some detail.     

Towards a European vision for space exploration: Recommendations of the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission

As a result of increasing public and political interest in ‘space’ (i.e. solar system) exploration at the global scale, the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission has evaluated the situation in Europe with regard to its potential to participate in this ambitious global enterprise. Aspects of science, technology, environment and safety, society, spin-offs and international cooperation were all considered. The group concluded that Europe possesses sufficient key technologies and scientific expertise to play a major role in international space exploration and has recommended that the EU take a central role to ensure the success of future European space exploration, not only to give a clear political signal for the way forward but also to ensure an appropriate financial framework. In this way Europe would embrace the spirit of the European Space Policy and contribute to the knowledge-based society by investing significantly in space-based science and technology, thereby playing a strong role in international space exploration.     

LISA: Heliocentric formation design for the laser interferometer space antenna mission

The LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna) mission has been selected by the European Space Agency’s Science Programme Committee as the third large-class mission of the Cosmic Vision Programme, addressing the science theme of the Gravitational Universe. With a planned launch date in 2034, LISA will be the first ever space-borne Gravitational Wave observatory, relying on laser interferometry between three spacecraft orbiting the Sun in a triangular formation. Airbus is currently leading an industrial Phase A system study on behalf of the European Space Agency. The paper will address the astrodynamics challenges associated with the LISA constellation design, driven by tight requirements on the geometric quality metrics of the near equilateral formation.