Economy of modular low-technology launch vehicles

The paper comprises an assessment of the design and the economics of so-called “low-cost” simple modular launch vehicles. It is shown that the performance is very marginal and that the cost per launch cannot compete with technically more advanced fully reusable vehicles. Especially a private-funded development cannot be amortized economically in case of an expendable launch vehicle.     

Estimation of ballistic coefficients of low altitude debris objects from historical two line elements

This paper presents a new method for estimating ballistic coefficients (BCs) of low perigee debris objects from their historical two line elements (TLEs). The method uses the drag perturbation equation of the semi-major axis of the orbit. For an object with perigee altitude below 700 km, the variation in the mean semi-major axis derived from the TLE is mainly caused by the atmospheric drag effect, and therefore is used as the source in the estimation of the ballistic coefficient. The method is tested using the GRACE satellites, and a number of debris objects with external ballistic coefficient values, and agreements of about 10% are achieved.     

Day-to-day variability of equatorial anomaly in GPS-TEC during low solar activity period

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in the northern hemispheric equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest region is investigated by using dual-frequency signals of the Global Positioning System (GPS) acquired from Rajkot (Geog. Lat. 22.29°N, Geog. Long. 70.74°E; Geom. Lat. 14.21°N, Geom. Long. 144.90°E), India. The day-to-day variability of EIA characteristics is examined during low solar activity period (F10.7∼83 sfu). It is found that the daily maximum TEC at EIA crest exhibits a day-to-day and strong semi-annual variability. The seasonal anomaly and equinoctial asymmetry in TEC at EIA is found non-existent and weaker, respectively. We found a moderate and positive correlation of daily magnitude of crest, Ic with daily F10.7 and EUV fluxes with a correlation coefficient of 0.43 and 0.33, respectively indicating an existence of a short-term relation between TEC at EIA and the solar radiation even during low solar activity period. The correlation of daily Ic with Dst index is also moderate (r = −0.35), whereas no correlation is found with the daily Kp index (r = 0.14) respectively. We found that the magnitude of EIA crest is moderately correlated with solar flux in all seasons except winter where it is weakly related (0.27). The magnitude of EIA crest is also found highly related with EEJ strength in spring (r = 0.69) and summer (r = 0.65) than autumn (0.5) and winter (r = 0.47), though EEJ is stronger in autumn than spring.     

Relationship between daily variation of cosmogenic nuclide Be-7 concentration in atmosphere and solar activities

Daily Be-7 concentrations in air at the height of 15 m are continuously observed at 38°15.2′N, 140°20.9′E, between 2000 and 2001. The average concentration and the relative standard deviation were 4.0 mBq/m³ and 50% in 2000–2001, respectively. The Be-7 concentrations increased 2.5% with the decrease in the sunspot numbers by 6.7% for the term of two years. From the power spectral analysis, the periodicity of 26 days is shown for the daily Be-7 concentrations. The folding analysis indicates that the time variation of the Be-7 concentration is similar to that of the ground-based neutron counting rate, and the phase delay for the minimum portion of Be-7 concentration was roughly 8 days to the maximum sunspot number. These results indicate that the Be-7 concentrations in the air at ground level have 26 day periodicity as a component of time variations and the time variation is caused by the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays, which corresponds to the variation of the sunspot number due to the rotation of the sun.     

Progress in space weather predictions and applications

The methods of today’s predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday’s statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today’s applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.     

Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

Remote assistance experiment during the manned space flight Altair

This remote assistance trial, performed within the framework of the manned space flight Altaïr, was carried out by CADMOS (CNES), with the cooperation of the Sub-directorate of CNES Operational Systems, Medes, LBM of Tours and Christol Consultants. It consisted of supplying the cosmonaut performing the Orthostatism experiment (echograph acquisition) on board the Mir station with realtime assistance by an expert (LBM of Tours) working from the ground on the CADMOS premises. The various steps of the approach followed during the preparation phase are described, as well as the technical means of communication used between the Mir station and CADMOS.     

Submicron magnetite grains and carbon compounds in Martian meteorite ALH84001: inorganic, abiotic formation by shock and thermal metamorphism

Purported biogenic features of the ALH84001 Martian meteorite (the carbonate globules, their submicron magnetite grains, and organic matter) have reasonable inorganic origins, and a comprehensive hypothesis is offered here. The carbonate globules were deposited from hydrothermal water, without biological mediation. Thereafter, ALH84001 was affected by an impact shock event, which raised its temperature nearly instantaneously to 500-700K, and induced iron-rich carbonate in the globules to decompose to magnetite and other minerals. The rapidity of the temperature increase caused magnetite grains to nucleate in abundance; hence individual crystals were very small. Nucleation and growth of magnetite crystals were fastest along edges and faces of the precursor carbonate grains, forcing the magnetite grains to be platy or elongated, including the "truncated hexa-octahedra" shape. ALH84001 had formed at some depth within Mars where the lithostatic pressure was significantly above that of Mars' surface. Also, because the rock was at depth, the impact heat dissipated slowly. During this interval, magnetite crystals approached chemical equilibria with surrounding minerals and gas. Their composition, nearly pure Fe(3)O(4), reflects those of equilibria; elements that substitute into magnetite are either absent from iron-rich carbonate (e.g., Ti, Al, Cr), or partitioned into other minerals during magnetite formation (Mg, Mn). Many microstructural imperfections in the magnetite grains would have annealed out as the rock cooled. In this post-shock thermal regime, carbon-bearing gas from the decomposition of iron carbonates reacted with water in the rock (or from its surroundings) to produce organic matter via Fischer-Tropschlike reactions. Formation of such organic compounds like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons would have been catalyzed by the magnetite (formation of graphite, the thermochemically stable phase, would be kinetically hindered).     

The effect of gravity on surface temperature and net photosynthetic rate of plant leaves.

To clarify the effects of gravity on heat/gas exchange between plant leaves and the ambient air, the leaf temperatures and net photosynthetic rates of plant leaves were evaluated at 0.01, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 G of 20 seconds each during a parabolic airplane flight. Thermal images of leaves were captured using infrared thermography at an air temperature of 26 degrees C, a relative humidity of 15% and an irradiance of 260 W m-2. The net photosynthetic rates were determined by using a chamber method with an infrared gas analyzer at an air temperature of 20 degrees C, a relative humidity of 50% and a photosynthetic photon flux of 0.5 mmol m-2 s-1. The mean leaf temperature increased by 1 degree C and the net photosynthetic rate decreased by 13% with decreasing gravity levels from 1.0 to 0.01 G. The leaf temperature decreased by 0.5 degree C and the net photosynthetic rate increased by 7% with increasing gravity levels from 1.0 to 2.0 G. Heat/gas exchanges between leaves and the ambient air were more retarded at lower gravity levels. A restricted free air convection under microgravity conditions in space would limit plant growth by retarding heat and gas exchanges between leaves and the ambient air.     

斜激波总压损失率极小值理论解与物理意义

以法向马赫数作为激波强度表征量,对斜激波关系式进行重新推导,得到了穿过激波总压损失率极小值的理论解。控制方程表达式为激波角对物面角的线性函数。依据斜激波总压损失率极小值解析公式,首先,绘制了针对超声速流总压损失率应用的楔形角-激波角-马赫数的斜激波效率图。其次,通过生成斜激波三维总压损失率等值线图,呈现了总压损失率在楔形角-激波角-特征马赫数空间上的分布规律。此外,利用斜激波效率图,揭示了等总压损失率条件下马赫数与激波角的对称双解现象。