Comparative cost and utility analysis of monolith and fractionated spacecraft using failure and replacement Markov models

Failure of a single component on-board a spacecraft can compromise the integrity of the whole system and put its entire capability and value at risk. Part of this fragility is intrinsic to the current dominant design of space systems, which is mainly a single, large, monolithic system. The space industry has therefore recently proposed a new architectural concept termed fractionation, or co-located space-based network (SBN). By physically distributing functions in multiple orbiting modules wirelessly connected, this architecture allows the sharing of resources on-orbit (e.g., data processing, downlinks). It has been argued that SBNs could offer significant advantages over the traditional monolithic architecture as a result of the network structure and the separation of sources of risk in the spacecraft. Careful quantitative analyses are still required to identify the conditions under which SBNs can “outperform” monolithic spacecraft. In this work, we develop Markov models of module failures and replacement to quantitatively compare the lifecycle cost and utility of both architectures. We run Monte-Carlo simulations of the models, and discuss important trends and invariants. We then investigate the impact of our model parameters on the existence of regions in the design space in which SBNs “outperform” the monolith spacecraft on a cost, utility, and utility per unit cost basis. Beyond the life of one single spacecraft, this paper compares the cost and utility implications of maintaining each architecture type through successive replacements.     

Health scorecard of spacecraft platforms: Track record of on-orbit anomalies and failures and preliminary comparative analysis

Choosing the “right” satellite platform for a given market and mission requirements is a major investment decision for a satellite operator. With a variety of platforms available on the market from different manufacturers, and multiple offerings from the same manufacturer, the down-selection process can be quite involved. In addition, because data for on-obit failures and anomalies per platform is unavailable, incomplete, or fragmented, it is difficult to compare options and make an informed choice with respect to the critical attribute of field reliability of different platforms. In this work, we first survey a large number of geosynchronous satellite platforms by the major satellite manufacturers, and we provide a brief overview of their technical characteristics, timeline of introduction, and number of units launched. We then analyze an extensive database of satellite failures and anomalies, and develop for each platform a “health scorecard” that includes all the minor and major anomalies, and complete failures—that is failure events of different severities—observed on-orbit for each platform. We identify the subsystems that drive these failure events and how much each subsystem contributes to these events for each platform. In addition, we provide the percentage of units in each platform which have experienced failure events, and, after calculating the total number of years logged on-orbit by each platform, we compute its corresponding average failure and anomaly rate. We conclude this work with a preliminary comparative analysis of the health scorecards of different platforms.The concept of a “health scorecard” here introduced provides a useful snapshot of the failure and anomaly track record of a spacecraft platform on orbit. As such, it constitutes a useful and transparent benchmark that can be used by satellite operators to inform their acquisition choices (“inform” not “base” as other considerations are factored in when comparing different spacecraft platforms), and by satellite manufacturers to guide their testing and reliability improvement programs. Finally, it is important to keep in mind that these health scorecards should be considered dynamic documents to be updated on a regular basis if they are to remain accurate and relevant for comparative analysis purposes, as new information will impact their content.     

Satellite observations of type III solar radio bursts at low frequencies

Type III solar radio bursts have been observed from 10 MHz to 10 kHz by satellite experiments above the terrestrial plasmasphere. Solar radio emission in this frequency range results from excitation of the interplanetary plasma by energetic particles propagating outward along open field lines over distances from 5 R to at least 1 AU from the Sun. This review summarizes the morphology, characteristics and analysis of individual as well as storms of bursts. Substantial evidence is available to show that the radio emission is observed at the second harmonic instead of the fundamental of the plasma frequency. This brings the density scale derived by radio observations into better agreement with direct solar wind density measurements at 1 AU and relaxes the requirement for type III propagation along large density-enhanced regions. This density scale with the measured direction of arrival of the radio burst allows the trajectory of the exciter path to be determined from 10 R to 1 AU. Thus, for example, the dynamics and gross structure of the interplanetary magnetic field can be investigated by this method. Burst rise times are interpreted in terms of exciter length and dispersion while decay times refer to the radiation damping process. The combination of radio observations at the lower frequencies and in-situ measurements on non-relativistic electrons at 1 AU provide data on the energy range and efficiency of the wave-particle interactions responsible for the radio emission.     

Diffuse cosmic X- and gamma radiation: The isotropic component

SummaryA. Spectral features The ability of the various theories to explain the three main spectral features at 1/4 keV, 60 keV and 1 MeV is summarized in Tables II and III.Clearly, confirmation of the reality of these features, especially the soft X-ray and -ray excesses, is one of the key elements in enabling us to decide between the competing theoretical interpretations.B. Energy requirements None of the proposed interpretations are easily explained in terms of the available energy in cosmic rays (except perhaps the Seyfert galaxy proposal, and this runs into difficulties). It seems that one either has to regard normal galaxies at the present epoch as prolific sources of cosmic rays ( 10⁶⁰ erg/galaxy in protons), as is required by the Brecher-Morrison model, or to argue that at early stages in their evolution far more energy is available than at present. One ends up with much the same energy requirement in this approach.One could conceivably identify such an early phase with the radio galaxy or QSO phenomena: in any event, cosmological evolution plays a major role. Cosmology does ease the energy requirements, but only for the inefficient mechanisms, such as nonthermal bremsstrahlung or ° -production.It seems that one still needs the metagalactic cosmic ray flux to be 10^-2 of the galactic flux in the diffuse inverse Compton models, and 10^-2–10^-4 in the nonthermal bremsstrahlung models.Faced with problems of energetics, one is tempted to turn to the most energetic objects in the Universe, namely Seyfert nuclei and QSO's, to provide the basic energy source, whether directly or indirectly, for the diffuse X-ray background. A direct connection could be more readily investigated when X-ray observations are available of more extra-galactic sources.C. Angular variations Another approach, complementary to that of looking for remote discrete sources, is to seek angular fluctuations, or limits on such fluctuations in the diffuse X-ray background.The best results presently available are those from the X-ray experiment on board OSO 3. Schwartz (1970) reports a limit of I/Ifour percent on small-scale (10°) fluctuations over 10–100 keV over about one-quarter of the sky. If one assumes a astrophysics, namely the origin of cosmic rays, is intimately linked to the origin of the X-ray background.It may well be that no single mechanism suffices to account for the entire spectrum of isotropic X- and -radiation. Nature is sufficiently perverse for there to be a reasonable probability that several different processes are contributing, and considerable ingenuity will be required to ascertain which mechanism, if any, is assigned the dominant role in a given spectral region.This review is based on an invited paper presented at the joint meeting of the A. A. S. Division of High Energy Astrophysics, and the A. P. S. Division of Cosmic Physics, Washington, D. C., 28 April–1 May, 1970     

Effects of heavy particle irradiation and diet on object recognition memory in rats

On long-duration missions to other planets astronauts will be exposed to types and doses of radiation that are not experienced in low earth orbit. Previous research using a ground-based model for exposure to cosmic rays has shown that exposure to heavy particles, such as ⁵⁶Fe, disrupts spatial learning and memory measured using the Morris water maze. Maintaining rats on diets containing antioxidant phytochemicals for 2 weeks prior to irradiation ameliorated this deficit. The present experiments were designed to determine: (1) the generality of the particle-induced disruption of memory by examining the effects of exposure to ⁵⁶Fe particles on object recognition memory; and (2) whether maintaining rats on these antioxidant diets for 2 weeks prior to irradiation would also ameliorate any potential deficit. The results showed that exposure to low doses of ⁵⁶Fe particles does disrupt recognition memory and that maintaining rats on antioxidant diets containing blueberry and strawberry extract for only 2 weeks was effective in ameliorating the disruptive effects of irradiation. The results are discussed in terms of the mechanisms by which exposure to these particles may produce effects on neurocognitive performance.     

Development of a high pressure-differential turbine blade cooling system

A convective-film system of high pressure-differential turbine blade cooling is presented. The results of calculating the thermal-hydraulic blade state using the KW3D software are given.     

Single Degenerate Models for Type Ia Supernovae: Progenitor’s Evolution and Nucleosynthesis Yields

We review how the single degenerate models for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) works. In the binary star system of a white dwarf (WD) and its non-degenerate companion star, the WD accretes either hydrogen-rich matter or helium and undergoes hydrogen and helium shell-burning. We summarize how the stability and non-linear behavior of such shell-burning depend on the accretion rate and the WD mass and how the WD blows strong wind. We identify the following evolutionary routes for the accreting WD to trigger a thermonuclear explosion. Typically, the accretion rate is quite high in the early stage and gradually decreases as a result of mass transfer. With decreasing rate, the WD evolves as follows: (1) At a rapid accretion phase, the WD increase its mass by stable H burning and blows a strong wind to keep its moderate radius. The wind is strong enough to strip a part of the companion star’s envelope to control the accretion rate and forms circumstellar matter (CSM). If the WD explodes within CSM, it is observed as an “SN Ia-CSM”. (X-rays emitted by the WD are absorbed by CSM.) (2) If the WD continues to accrete at a lower rate, the wind stops and an SN Ia is triggered under steady-stable H shell-burning, which is observed as a super-soft X-ray source: “SN Ia-SSXS”. (3) If the accretion continues at a still lower rate, H shell-burning becomes unstable and many flashes recur. The WD undergoes recurrent nova (RN) whose mass ejection is smaller than the accreted matter. Then the WD evolves to an “SN Ia-RN”. (4) If the companion is a He star (or a He WD), the accretion of He can trigger He and C double detonations at the sub-Chandrasekhar mass or the WD grows to the Chandrasekhar mass while producing a He-wind: “SN Ia-He CSM”. (5) If the accreting WD rotates quite rapidly, the WD mass can exceed the Chandrasekhar mass of the spherical WD, which delays the trigger of an SN Ia. After angular momentum is lost from the WD, the (super-Chandra) WD contracts to become a delayed SN Ia. The companion star has become a He WD and CSM has disappeared: “SN Ia-He WD”. We update nucleosynthesis yields of the carbon deflagration model W7, delayed detonation model WDD2, and the sub-Chandrasekhar mass model to provide some constraints on the yields (such as Mn) from the comparison with the observations. We note the important metallicity effects on ⁵⁸Ni and ⁵⁵Mn.     

Crustal S-Wave Velocity from Apparent Incidence Angles: A Case Study in Preparation for InSight

Retrieval of crustal structure and thickness of Mars is among the main goals of InSight. Here we investigate which constraints on the crust at the landing site can be provided by apparent P-wave incidence angles derived from P-receiver functions. We consider receiver functions for six different Mars models, calculated from synthetic seismograms generated via Instaseis from the Green’s function databases of the Marsquake Service, in detail. To allow for a larger range of crustal thicknesses and structures, we additionally analyze data from five broad-band stations across Central Europe. We find that the likely usable epicentral distance range for P-wave receiver functions on Mars lies between \(35^{\circ}\) and the core shadow, and can be extended to more than \(150^{\circ}\) by also using the PP-phase. Comparison to models for the spatial distribution of Martian seismicity indicates that sufficient seismicity should occur within the P-wave distance range around InSight within the nominal mission duration to allow for the application of our method. Apparent P-wave incidence angles are derived from the amplitudes of vertical and radial receiver functions at the P-wave onset within a range of period bands, up to 120 s. The apparent incidence angles are directly related to apparent S-wave velocities, which are inverted for the subsurface S-wave velocity structure via a grid search. The veracity of the forward calculated receiver functions and apparent S-wave velocities is ensured by benchmarking various algorithms against the Instaseis synthetics. Results indicate that apparent S-wave velocity curves provide valuable constraints on crustal thickness and structure, even without any additional constraints, and considering the location uncertainty and limited data quantity of InSight. S-wave velocities in the upper half of the crust are constrained best, but if reliable measurements at long periods are available, the curves also provide constraints down to the uppermost mantle. Besides, it is demonstrated that the apparent velocity curves can differentiate between crustal velocity models that are indistinguishable by other methods.     

Cosmological Distance Indicators

We review three distance measurement techniques beyond the local universe: (1) gravitational lens time delays, (2) baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and (3) HI intensity mapping. We describe the principles and theory behind each method, the ingredients needed for measuring such distances, the current observational results, and future prospects. Time-delays from strongly lensed quasars currently provide constraints on \(H_{0}\) with \(<4\%\) uncertainty, and with \(1\%\) within reach from ongoing surveys and efforts. Recent exciting discoveries of strongly lensed supernovae hold great promise for time-delay cosmography. BAO features have been detected in redshift surveys up to \(z\lesssim0.8\) with galaxies and \(z\sim2\) with Ly-\(\alpha\) forest, providing precise distance measurements and \(H_{0}\) with \(<2\%\) uncertainty in flat \(\Lambda\)CDM. Future BAO surveys will probe the distance scale with percent-level precision. HI intensity mapping has great potential to map BAO distances at \(z\sim0.8\) and beyond with precisions of a few percent. The next years ahead will be exciting as various cosmological probes reach \(1\%\) uncertainty in determining \(H_{0}\), to assess the current tension in \(H_{0}\) measurements that could indicate new physics.