Experiments in Adaptive Estimation of Unknown Binary Waveforms

A special-purpose adaptive machine is described which carries out estimation in real time of an unknown binary waveform which is perturbed with additive Gaussian noise. Unknown waveforms of over 103 samples in duration can be recovered. The unknown waveforms are of unknown epoch and can reappear at either random or periodic time intervals. The observed signal is received at moderate or low signal-to-noise ratios so that a single observation of the received data (even if one knew the precise signal arrival time) is not sufficient to provide a good estimate of the signal waveshape. Experimental results are described which show transient behavior waveform estimate. The transient behavior is expressed as the number of errors in the current estimate of the signal plotted vs. time. In a noisy environment, each ``learning' transient is a random time function. These learning transients are shown for several different signal-to-noise ratios and indicate the threshold noise levels for various types of initial states of the machine memory.     

Policy model for space economy infrastructure

Extraterrestrial infrastructure is key to the development of a space economy. Means for accelerating transition from today's isolated projects to a broad-based economy are considered. A large system integration approach is proposed. The beginnings of an economic simulation model are presented, along with examples of how interactions and coordination bring down costs. A global organization focused on space infrastructure and economic expansion is proposed to plan, coordinate, fund and implement infrastructure construction. This entity also opens a way to raise low-cost capital and solve the legal and public policy issues of access to extraterrestrial resources.     

Protecting safe access to space: Lessons from the first 50 years of space security

Despite predictions to the contrary at various times from 1957 to 2007, the first 50 years of space security have ended without an arms race or military combat. Arguably, the three riskiest years were 1962, 1983, and 2001. Looking for lessons from these cases, we can identify four primary trends that helped states avoid arms races and direct conflicts in orbit: (1) risks of collective “bads”; (2) fear of action–reaction dynamics; (3) the high cost of space weapons; and (4) the asset of transparency. As we look ahead, trends toward a continued focus on these factors in space security seem strong. But successful prevention of future space warfare will require strengthened forms of individual and collective restraint by all actors in space.     

Mercury’s Weather-Beaten Surface: Understanding Mercury in the Context of Lunar and Asteroidal Space Weathering Studies

Mercury’s regolith, derived from the crustal bedrock, has been altered by a set of space weathering processes. Before we can interpret crustal composition, it is necessary to understand the nature of these surface alterations. The processes that space weather the surface are the same as those that form Mercury’s exosphere (micrometeoroid flux and solar wind interactions) and are moderated by the local space environment and the presence of a global magnetic field. To comprehend how space weathering acts on Mercury’s regolith, an understanding is needed of how contributing processes act as an interactive system. As no direct information (e.g., from returned samples) is available about how the system of space weathering affects Mercury’s regolith, we use as a basis for comparison the current understanding of these same processes on lunar and asteroidal regoliths as well as laboratory simulations. These comparisons suggest that Mercury’s regolith is overturned more frequently (though the characteristic surface time for a grain is unknown even relative to the lunar case), more than an order of magnitude more melt and vapor per unit time and unit area is produced by impact processes than on the Moon (creating a higher glass content via grain coatings and agglutinates), the degree of surface irradiation is comparable to or greater than that on the Moon, and photon irradiation is up to an order of magnitude greater (creating amorphous grain rims, chemically reducing the upper layers of grains to produce nanometer-scale particles of metallic iron, and depleting surface grains in volatile elements and alkali metals). The processes that chemically reduce the surface and produce nanometer-scale particles on Mercury are suggested to be more effective than similar processes on the Moon. Estimated abundances of nanometer-scale particles can account for Mercury’s dark surface relative to that of the Moon without requiring macroscopic grains of opaque minerals. The presence of nanometer-scale particles may also account for Mercury’s relatively featureless visible–near-infrared reflectance spectra. Characteristics of material returned from asteroid 25143 Itokawa demonstrate that this nanometer-scale material need not be pure iron, raising the possibility that the nanometer-scale material on Mercury may have a composition different from iron metal [such as (Fe,Mg)S]. The expected depletion of volatiles and particularly alkali metals from solar-wind interaction processes are inconsistent with the detection of sodium, potassium, and sulfur within the regolith. One plausible explanation invokes a larger fine fraction (grain size <45 μm) and more radiation-damaged grains than in the lunar surface material to create a regolith that is a more efficient reservoir for these volatiles. By this view the volatile elements detected are present not only within the grain structures, but also as adsorbates within the regolith and deposits on the surfaces of the regolith grains. The comparisons with findings from the Moon and asteroids provide a basis for predicting how compositional modifications induced by space weathering have affected Mercury’s surface composition.     

Modeling Piecewise-Linear Systems by Topological Techniques

Flowgraph techniques are extended to systems with piecewise-linear characteristics by developing criteria for construction of an optimum model from related subregions in which linearity holds. This requires the synthesis of several known techniques and results in a wide range of useful applications including: 1) devices with nonlinear characteristics which may be considered as linear over certain subregions; 2) networks whose response to changes in applied signal frequency or magnitude may be approximated by piecewise-linear asymptotes; 3) systems processing two or more signals simultaneously with different transfer or immitance characteristics for each signal; 4) circuits approximated by different equivalent circuits depending on the numerical values of critical parameters. Representative examples will illustrate these and similar applications. Procedures are presented to provide a logical, orderly, and effective approach to construct a model, to determine figures of merit, and to optimize the model for a prescribed region of operation or for a desired range of parameters.     

A Lunar Laser Ranging Retroreflector Array for the 21st Century

Over the past 40 years, the Lunar Laser Ranging Program (LLRP) to the Apollo Cube Corner (CCR) Retroreflector Arrays (ALLRRA) [1] has supplied almost all of the significant tests of General Relativity. The LLRP has evaluated the PPN parameters, addressed the possible changes in the gravitational constant and the properties of the self-energy of the gravitational field. In addition, the LLRP has provided significant information on the composition and origin of the moon. This is the only Apollo experiment that is still in operation. Initially the ALLRRAs contributed a negligible fraction of the ranging error budget. Over the decades, the ranging capabilities of the ground stations have improved by more than two orders of magnitude. Now, because of the lunar librations, the existing Apollo retroreflector arrays contribute a significant fraction of the limiting errors in the range measurements.The University of Maryland, as the Principal Investigator for the original Apollo arrays, is now proposing a new approach to the Lunar Laser Array technology [2]. The investigation of this new technology, with Professor Currie as Principal Investigator, is currently being supported by two NASA programs and by the INFN-LNF in Frascati, Italy. Thus after the proposed installation during the next lunar landing, the new arrays will support ranging observations that are a factor 100 more accurate than the current ALLRRAs.The new fundamental cosmological physics and the lunar physics [3] that this new Lunar Laser Ranging Retroreflector Array for the 21st Century (LLRRA-21) can provide will be described. In the design of the new array, there are three major challenges: (1) validate the ability to fabricate a CCR of the required specifications, which is significantly beyond the properties of current CCRs, (2) address the thermal and optical effects of the absorption of solar radiation within the CCR, reduce the transfer of heat from the CCR housing and (3) validate an accurate emplacement technique to install the CCR package on the lunar surface. The latter requires a long-term stable relation between the optical center of the array and the deep regolith, that is, below the thermally driven expansion and contraction of the regolith during the lunar day/night cycle.     

Experiments with a Low Polarization Error Loop Array Direction Finder

A previously reported HF loop antenna array for multipolarization direction finding consisting of two spaced loops is described. The method is compatible with twin channel Watson-Watt operation as an Adcock so that the direction finding process is independent of polarization characteristics of the element pattern. Experimentally measured direction finder (DF) bearings were compared with near simultaneous polarimeter data and conventional crossed loops bearings. A major reduction in polarization error was obtained at the expense of full 360° azimuth response. It is theoretically possible to cover 360° with two similar arrays of the type investigated or with crossed loops elements with quadrature phase shifters.     

The Sun's Role in Long-Term Climate Change

Evidence suggests that changes of solar irradiance in recent centuries have provided a significant climate forcing and that the sun has been one of the principal causes of long-term climate change. During the past two decades the solar forcing has been much smaller than the climate forcing caused by increasing greenhouse gases. But it is incorrect to assume that the sun necessarily will be an insignificant player in climate change of the 21st century. Indeed, I argue that moderate success in curtailing the growth of anthropogenic climate forcings could leave the sun playing a pivotal role in future climate change.     

Editorial: Show Us the Data

Journal of Reducing Space Mission Cost -