新版亚大地区F2电离层频率预测方法

新版亚大地区F2电离层频率预测方法根据电离层参量与太阳黑子数12个月流动平均值R12的互相关原理, 使用R12代替了由重庆F2层临界频率导出的电离层指数Ic, 减小了R12转换为Ic时的误差; 并在原亚大地区F2电离层频率预测方法的基础上审慎地选择并增补了一些探测站的大量数据, 不再使用三组不 同R12值的B系数去插值, 避免了中间环节所带来的插值误差. 并对几种不同方法的预测结果进行了比较, 结果显示新版本的预测精度较高.      

用全球等效太阳黑子数IG_(12)进行电离层长期预报

本文利用中国电离层垂直探测站的资料研究应用全球等效太阳黑子数IG_(12)进行电离层长期预报的可能性.结果表明,指数IC_(12)与电离层特性参数(f_0F_2或F_2(3000)MUF)的相关性比太阳黑子数R_(12)与电离层特性参数的要好. 利用CCIR第340号报告,对IG_(12)应用于预报f_0F_2、M(3000)F_2和F_2(4000)MUF的功效进行了估算,并与目前使用的R_(12)进行了比较.所得结果表明,在用CCIR预报方法时,用IG_(12)代替R_(12)可以得到精度更高的预报值.对提前12个月的预报,f_0F_2和F_2(4000)MUF的预报精度分别平均提高18％和10％左右.对IG_(12)指数用于预报的其他优点亦进行了讨论.     

一种电离层物理模型及其在F1谷区形成讨论中的应用

在电离层F区考虑了三种中性成分的4种离子(O~+、No~+、N_2~+和O_2~+),从严格的电子和离子密度连续方程出发,由中性风所满足的动力学方程和离子运动方程解出水平中性风,从而得到离子垂直漂移速度,由此建立了一种电离层的物理模式;并用此模式,针对我国中、低纬(116°E,30°N)地区,讨论了光化学作用对F_1层的影响和动力学效应在F层中的作用。着重讨论由水平中性风引起的离子垂直漂移运动对F_1谷区的影响。结果表明:在光化平衡模式下,E区明显形成。在太阳活动低年夏季可产生明显的F_1“凸缘”。但仅靠光化平衡作用不能产生深的F_1谷区,也不能解释F_2层的形成;双极扩散是F_2层形成的主要机制;中性风的因素对E层影响不大,却可以在太阳活动低年夏季产生谷深在0.05—0.1的深F_1谷区。用此模式还计算了F_1谷区日变化,结果表明:中性风影响模式能较好地反映我国中低纬地区F_1谷区变化的地域特征。     

短波射线追踪技术中的电离层混合建模方法

在国际参考电离层模型和多层准抛物模型的基础上,提出了一种混合应用两种模型进行电离层建模的新方法.利用射线追踪技术,分别对混合模型和传统国际参考电离层模型下短波射线在电离层中的轨迹进行了仿真,得到了电波群路径.通过与实测电波群路径的对比,结果表明:对中国中纬度地区在电离层混合模型下的射线追踪精度优于传统国际参考电离层模型下的射线追踪精度,同时混合建模方法降低了多层准抛物模型对输入条件的要求,扩展了多层准抛物模型在射线追踪技术中的应用范围.     

中国夏季E_s出现概率的分布(f_0E_s>7MHz)

在“CCIR”534-1号报告(以下简称“CCIR”)中,提供了全球性E,出现概率的分布,见图1     

利用北斗观测数据实时监测中国区域电离层变化

北斗卫星导航信号采用三个频点工作,可以利用伪距双频组差方法解算电离层电子含量,为实时监视中国区域电离层变化提供新的技术手段.中国中低纬度处于电离层赤道异常变化区,在北纬20°±5°区域时常发生较大梯度的电离层变化.利用北斗实时多频伪距和相位观测数据,采用相位平滑伪距方法计算电离层穿刺点电子含量,分析通过北斗系统GEO卫星监测的电离层周日变化特性;采用多面函数方法拟合中国区域1°×1°分辨率的电离层延迟量,每5min绘制一幅中国区域电离层图,观测区域所有电离层穿刺点拟合残差RMS为2.778TECU;分析北斗系统实时监测中国区域电离层异常情况,当发生电离层异常变化时,相邻两天的VTEC（Vertical Total Electronic Content）峰值相差约60TECU.      

利用F_(10.7)短期预报电离层F_0F_2

通过对电离层历史数据和太阳射电流量F10.7的回归分析,提出了一种单站电离层f0F2的短期预报方法,以F10.7的流动平均值fc为输入,以未米3天的f0F2为输出,分别利用中国地区8个台站的数据进行检验,分析不同太阳活动水平、季节以及地方时预报误差的分布特征.结果表明,该方法能有效地预测未来1～3天的f0F2.该方法还可应用于其他电离层参量的短期预报.     

海南地区电离层闪烁观测与GISM模式预测的比较分析

为了获得全球电离层闪烁模式GISM在中国低纬地区预测的精度和可靠性,利用海南三亚GPS电离层闪烁监测系统一年的观测数据与模式预测结果进行对比分析.结果表明,在太阳活动低年,GISM能较好地反映海南地区电离层闪烁的季节变化、日变化和空间分布特性;对于季节变化,模式与观测结果在中等强度闪烁条件下较为相符,而在强闪烁和弱闪烁条件下有不同程度的偏差;模式预测的闪烁日变化与实际观测基本一致,但在闪烁发生率出现最大值的时间上模式预测要滞后约1 h左右;在电离层闪烁发生率的空间分布上,模式预测与实际观测较为相符,即海南地区南面电离层闪烁发生率高于北面.      

国际参考电离层模型输出参数峰值高度性能

电离层峰值高度H_mF₂是描述电离层形态的重要参数之一，国际参考电离层模型IRI-2016中融入了大量电离层测高仪和无线电掩星探测数据，用以提升H_mF₂的预测精度.本文利用太阳活动低年（2007—2010年）气象、电离层和气候卫星联合观测系统COSMIC探测数据描述全球范围内COSMIC H_mF₂的三维形态变化，对比分析了IRI-2016与IRI-2012模型的预测结果，同时分析了IRI-2016模型输出H_mF₂的性能.结果表明，IRI模型在中高纬度地区的输出结果高于COSMIC反演结果，而赤道及低纬地区则大都偏低.与IRI-2012模型相比，IRI-2016模型的输出结果在夜间至凌晨时段呈现较为明显的纬向梯度变化且大部分区域输出值偏高，但在白天时段赤道附近区域的输出值大都偏低.上述结果为电离层IRI模型的完善提供了一定参考.      

基于空间统计方法的电离层折射修正技术

针对中国上空电离层所具有的特殊性和GPS观测站在中国西部分布相对稀疏的特点, 尝试探索中国卫星增强系统电离层时延信息修正技术, 为卫星导航定位以及遥感、遥测等空间应用工程的电波修正提供数据. 利用中国地壳形变监测网提供的双频GPS数据, 以空间统计方法为主要工具, 给出了普通Kriging电离层估计算法, 构建了平静期和磁暴期电离层理论变异模型, 详细分析了电离层折射修正的精度. 结果表明, 将空间统计方法应用于卫星增强系统中的电离层时延改正问题, 有利于提高增强系统的电离层折射修正精度, 特别是在观测样点相对较少的情况下, 有利于系统完整性的实现.      

A regional model for the prediction of M(3000)F2 over East Asia

Research on empirical or physical models of ionospheric parameters is one of the important topics in the field of space weather and communication support services. To improve the accuracy of predicting the monthly median ionospheric propagating factor at 3000 km of the F2 layer (identified as M(3000)F2) for high frequency radio wave propagation, a model based on modified orthogonal temporal–spatial functions is proposed. The proposed model has three new characteristics: (1) The solar activity parameters of sunspot number and the 10.7-cm solar radio flux are together introduced into temporal reconstruction. (2) Both the geomagnetic dip and its modified value are chosen as features of the geographical spatial variation for spatial reconstruction. (3) A series of harmonic functions are used to represent the M(3000)F2, which reflects seasonal and solar cycle variations. The proposed model is established by combining nonlinear regression for three characteristics with harmonic analysis by using vertical sounding data over East Asia. Statistical results reveal that M(3000)F2 calculated by the proposed model is consistent with the trend of the monthly median observations. The proposed model is better than the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model by comparison between predictions and observations of six station, which illustrates that the proposed model outperforms the IRI model over East Asia. The proposed method can be further expanded for potentially providing more accurate predictions for other ionospheric parameters on the global scale.     

An update global model of hmF2 from values estimated from ionosonde and COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 radio occultation

In this paper, we present our recent work on developing an updated global model of the ionospheric F2 peak height hmF2 parameter by combining data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3) radio occultation (RO) measurements and from the extended global ionosonde stations. In particular, 10 Chinese ionosonde stations’ data are newly introduced into this study. The modeling technique used is based on a two-layer empirical orthogonal function (EOF) expansion. Global distributions of hmF2 maps calculated using the newly constructed global model and the one provided by the International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI-ITU-R) are compared with the global distributions of hmF2 obtained by the COSMIC RO measurements and quantitative statistical analysis of the differences between the model results and those of the COSMIC RO measurements is made for the low (2008) and high (2012) solar activity years. The obtained average root-mean-square differences (RMSEs) for our model are 27.7 km (11.1%) and 31.0 km (9.8%), respectively for the years 2008 and 2012, whereas those for the IRI-ITU-R model are 39.9 km (16.9%) and 35.0 km (11.6%), respectively. Comparison of the results calculated both by our model and the IRI-ITU-R model with the digisonde observation is also made. The comparisons show that the newly constructed global hmF2 model can reproduce reasonably well the observations and perform better than IRI-ITU-R model.     

基于BDS/GPS和经验模型的区域电离层建模

基于北斗卫星导航系统（BDS）和全球定位系统（GPS）实测电离层穿刺点（IPP）数据，结合国际参考电离层（IRI）经验模型历史数据，提出一种对区域二维电离层总电子含量（TEC）进行高精度建模的方法.针对缺乏穿刺点的区域内短时间电离层建模时精度较低且各时段穿刺点空间分布不同的问题，该方法使用IRI模型在建模区域内均匀添加虚拟穿刺点数据，并根据与实测穿刺点的距离，使用构造的权重计算公式赋予其动态权重值，通过加权最小二乘法进行球谐模型参数解算.与欧洲定轨中心（CODE）发布的全球电离层图（GIM）进行数据比对发现，相对于只使用BDS/GPS实测穿刺点数据的建模方法，利用本文建模方法计算获得的垂直总电子含量（VTEC）值对缺乏实测穿刺点的区域精度有明显的提升.      

用实测电离层电子含量检验国际参考电离层模式

本文用1978-1979年在西安测量的电离层电子含量与由国际参考电离层模式计算的结果相比较。指出后者在春季显着偏低。这是模式中F₂层峰以上部分电子密度偏低所致。      

Equatorial predictions from a new neural network based global foF2 model

A new neural network (NN) based global empirical model for the foF2 parameter, which represents the peak ionospheric electron density, has been developed using extended temporal and spatial geophysical relevant inputs. It has been proposed that this new model be considered as a suitable replacement for the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) and International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) model options currently used within the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model for the purpose of F2 peak electron density predictions. The most recent version of the model has incorporated data from 135 global ionospheric stations including a number of equatorial stations.     

Improvement of the solar-cycle variation of IRI lower ionosphere models by means of radio wave propagation data

Data on day-time and night-time radio wave absorption in the frequency range 50 to 2614 kHz, obtained in long-term observational programmes in Central Europe, are compared with corresponding absorption values calculated from electron density profiles of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-1979) using the full-wave method.Discrepancies between calculated and observed absorption values were found for the diurnal and the solar-cycle variation, the amplitudes of the solar-cycle variation of absorption being considerably larger than the observed variation.A modification of the solar-activity dependence of the D-region electron density parameters is derived, which provides an improvement of the solar-cycle variation as well as the diurnal variation of the IRI electron density profiles.     

A new global version of M(3000)F2 prediction model based on artificial neural networks

A new version of global empirical model for the ionospheric propagation factor, M(3000)F2 prediction is presented. Artificial neural network (ANN) technique was employed by considering the relevant geophysical input parameters which are known to influence the M(3000)F2 parameter. This new version is an update to the previous neural network based M(3000)F2 global model developed by Oyeyemi et al. (2007), and aims to address the inadequacy of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) M(3000)F2 model (the International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) M(3000)F2 model). The M(3000)F2 has been found to be relatively inaccurate in representing the diurnal structure of the low latitude region and the equatorial ionosphere. In particular, the existing hmF2 IRI model is unable to reproduce the sharp post-sunset drop in M(3000)F2 values, which correspond to a sharp post-sunset peak in the peak height of the F2 layer, hmF2. Data from 80 ionospheric stations globally, including a good number of stations in the low latitude region were considered for this work. M(3000)F2 hourly values from 1987 to 2008, spanning all periods of low and high solar activity were used for model development and verification process. The ability of the new model to predict the M(3000)F2 parameter especially in the low latitude and equatorial regions, which is known to be problematic for the existing IRI model is demonstrated.     

Midday bottomside electron density profiles during moderate solar activity and comparison with IRI-2001

Bottomside electron density (Ne-h) profiles during midday (10–14 h) are analyzed using modern digital ionosonde observations at a low-middle latitude station, New Delhi (28.6N, 77.2E, dip 42.4N), for the period from January 2003 to December 2003, pertaining to moderate solar activity (MSA). Each individual profile is normalized with respect to the peak height and density (hmF2, NmF2) of the F2-region. These profiles are compared with those obtained from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2001) model. Bilitza [Bilitza, D. International Reference Ionosphere 2000. Radio Sci. 36 (2), 261–275, 2001] using both the options namely: Gulyaeva’s model [Gulyaeva, T.L. Progress in ionospheric informatics based on electron density profile analysis of ionograms. Adv. Space Res. 7 (6) 39–48, 1987] and B0 Tab. option [Bilitza, D., Radicella, S.M., Reinisch, B.W., Adeniyi, J.O., Mosert Gonzalez, M.E., Zhang, S.R., Obrou, O. New B0 and B1 models for IRI. Adv. Space Res. 25 (1), 89–95, 2000]. The study reveals that during summer and equinox, the IRI model with B0 Tab. option in general, produces better agreement with the observed median profiles, while the IRI predictions using Gulyaeva’s option, overestimate the electron density distribution at all the heights below the F2-peak. However, during winter, in general, the IRI model, using both the options, reveals shows fairly good agreement with the observations.     

On the time of minimum ionization in the F2 region

Using measurements of the critical frequency of F2 region (f_oF2) the validity of the International Reference Ionosphere model to predict the time of minimum ionization is checked. Data obtained at different ionospheric stations have been considered. The CCIR and URSI options are used to model calculations. For CCIR option the results show that good predictions were obtained for about 40% of the considered cases. For the rest of the considered data, the model predicts the minimum at times earlier than that observed in the measurements. The percentages of good predictions obtained with URSI option are lower than those corresponding to CCIR one.