基于模糊应力—强度模型的空间系绳碰撞可靠性

空间系绳系统由于其特殊的组成结构日益受到关注，空间系绳的碰撞可靠性研究是系绳任务设计的重要一环.本文采用可靠性分析基本原理中的应力—强度模型，根据近地轨道的空间碎片通量和泊松分布方法，进行空间系绳在轨碰撞可靠性的研究分析.根据对空间系绳碰撞可靠性有影响的系绳结构因素，即单股系绳的直径、长度，双股系绳的绳间距、碰撞角等，对空间碎片撞击切割系绳后碰撞点处的系绳剩余截面进行建模，利用模糊应力—强度模型计算空间系绳在撞击后发生毁灭性碰撞的概率，进而根据泊松方法计算空间系绳在轨可靠性随时间的变化，通过仿真分析，对比不同结构空间系绳的有效在轨时间.      

利用精化误差进行危险交会分析

空间碎片碰撞预警工作主要针对的是可监测的较大空间碎片, 预测航天器与碎片之间的碰撞风险, 并根据一定的预警判据来评估风险的大小, 进而做出合理的轨道规避决策. 碰撞概率是碰撞风险评估的重要依据. 复合体尺寸、交会距离和误差是影响碰撞概率的三个决定性因素. 当复合体尺寸与交会距离差别不大时, 误差因素对碰撞概率结果起着决定性的作用. 在利用整天误差计算碰撞概率的基础上, 提出了利用精化误差计算碰撞概率的方法, 在危险交会分析中取得了良好的效果.      

空间目标预警阈值确定分析

针对目前通常采用计算碰撞概率来进行空间目标碰撞预警的方法,为提高其评判标准的精度以达到提高航天器精准预警的目的,分析了目前空间目标碰撞概率阈值确定过程的总体框架.对阈值确定过程中所涉及的误差协方差矩阵确定方法、碰撞概率计算以及碎片通量计算方法进行了研究.以国际空间站（ISS）为例,通过计算其所在空间的碎片通量,分析其轨道受空间环境的影响情况,并与早期结果进行比较,得出其以往的碰撞概率阈值可能被高估的结论.      

空间碎片预警中的碰撞概率方法研究

由于空间碎片对飞行在地球轨道上的航天器危害日益严重,所以必须采取一些有效的防护措施,对于那些直径大于10 cm的碎片,通常是采用主动规避的方法来进行防护.为了避免传统的Box判据造成的过多错误预警,碰撞概率模型开始被应用于空间碎片预警,本文以空间站为例,将碰撞概率方法与传统Box区域判定法进行比较,介绍碰撞概率计算模型的建立方法,基于位置误差矩阵的碰撞概率Pc的算法,并针对实际交会事例进行了计算和分析.      

空间碎片消旋柔性冲击末端设计与分析

根据机械冲击式主动消旋方法的特点,设计了变压力柔性冲击末端.考虑到变压力柔性末端的流固耦合作用,通过分析内部气体压力对末端刚度的影响,确定了压力阈值并展开优化设计.对柔性冲击末端与空间碎片之间的碰撞力进行了理论分析与实验研究,建立了柔性末端与空间碎片碰撞的接触模型,设计了冲击与测量实验系统,修正了摩擦模型,通过冲击实验验证模型与实验结果吻合较好,法向碰撞力和切向摩擦力模型计算误差分别小于6.7%和6.9%.研究表明变压力柔性末端设计合理有效,满足空间碎片消旋要求,对发展空间碎片捕获方法具有重要指导意义.     

卫星发射对空间碎片环境影响分析

未来航天发射情况直接影响空间碎片环境，必须对其进行合理规划，以维护外空长期可持续发展.利用中国自主建立的空间碎片长期演化模型（SOLEM），结合蒙特卡洛方法，量化分析了空间物体发射数量、发射质量、发射面积等因子对未来空间碎片环境的影响，进一步研究了大型星座造成的未来空间物体碰撞次数和碎片数量的增加.仿真结果可为合理规划未来的航天发射规模提供理论依据.      

雷达波束驻留模式下空间碎片数量的置信区间估计

碎片数量估计是空间碎片环境统计特征描述的重要内容之一,对于空间碎片环境模型验证、航天器碰撞风险分析以及碎片数量增长趋势预测有重要意义.针对波束指向正东、正南任意仰角的雷达波束驻留(Beam-park)模式(天顶指向是波束指向仰角为90°时的特例),给出了一种估计碎片数量置信区间的方法.对于给定轨道高度范围内一个具有穿越雷达波束可能性(即雷达散射截面足够大,且轨道倾角相对测站纬度足够大)的碎片,将其是否真正穿越波束这一随机事件用(0-1)分布来建模,根据所采集的轨道高度和倾角数据,计算出该轨道高度范围内碎片穿越波束的平均概率,进而采用中心极限定理来估计碎片数量的置信区间.仿真结果表明了方法的有效性.      

航天器与短期空间碎片云碰撞概率算法

讨论了航天器与碎片云碰撞概率的提法,介绍了不同碰撞概率间的转换方法。在航天器轨道和碎片云中心轨道都确定情况下,研究了碰撞概率的一般算法;并根据C-W方程推导了只在短时间内有效的简化碰撞概率算法。最后通过蒙特卡洛法验证了简化算法的正确性。     

基于驻留时间比的近地空间碎片环境建模

为分析近地空间碎片的分布规律,提出了一种以碎片在空间网格内驻留时间为基础的碎片环境统计建模方法.该方法利用多项式拟合和求根方法统计碎片在空间网格内的停留时间,获取模型基础数据,并据此采用多项式预测、插值和时间序列分析等技术,综合分析空间碎片的分布与演化规律.给出了一个基于双行根数(TLE,Two Line Elements)数据的建模实例,该实例通过了ORDEM2000模型的对比验证,并获得了一些更精细的近地空间碎片环境特征.所得建模方法和分析结论可为长期运行的近地航天器轨道设计、碰撞风险评估及防护等提供技术支撑.     

空间碎片的空间密度算法研究

由于空间碎片的影响, 空间环境日益恶劣,有必要建立空间碎片环境工程模型对空间碎片撞击航天器进行风险评估.本文研究了空间碎片环境模型中的重要环节, 即碎片的空间密度问题,在统计理论与椭圆轨道理论基础上,分析及推导了空间碎片在空间中的分布状况及空间密度,并得出了碎片空间密度的空间坐标函数解析表达式.同时对引入假设条件的合理性进行了讨论,并利用双行元数据对结论进行了验证, 利用本文方法得出的结果与双行元数据吻合.      

Analysis of tape tether survival in LEO against orbital debris

The low earth orbit (LEO) environment contains a large number of artificial debris, of which a significant portion is due to dead satellites and fragments of satellites resulted from explosions and in-orbit collisions. Deorbiting defunct satellites at the end of their life can be achieved by a successful operation of an Electrodynamic Tether (EDT) system. The effectiveness of an EDT greatly depends on the survivability of the tether, which can become debris itself if cut by debris particles; a tether can be completely cut by debris having some minimal diameter. The objective of this paper is to develop an accurate model using power laws for debris-size ranges, in both ORDEM2000 and MASTER2009 debris flux models, to calculate tape tether survivability. The analytical model, which depends on tape dimensions (width, thickness) and orbital parameters (inclinations, altitudes) is then verified with fully numerical results to compare for different orbit inclinations, altitudes and tape width for both ORDEM2000 and MASTER2009 flux data.     

Practical guidelines for electro-dynamic tethers to survive from orbital debris impacts

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has proposed an active debris removal using electro-dynamic tether to reduce large space debris in the low-Earth orbit. However, a tether strand is thin but long enough to have a large area so that it is vulnerable to small particles. This vulnerability might be the weakest point of a tether system against orbital debris. In order to overcome this weakest point, a double tether system, in which two tether strands are tied together at even intervals to form equally spaced loops, has been suggested as one of the promising candidates. This paper provides a mathematical approach to estimate the survival probability of a double tether system and then apply the approach to evaluate the mission success rate of the active debris removal using electro-dynamic tether that JAXA has proposed. It can be concluded the countermeasure to get enough success rate can be obtained. The result is simulated for Advanced Earth Observing Satellite II (ADEOS-II) re-entry from 800 km sun synchronized orbit to atmosphere. The simulation shows that mission success rate over 90% can be obtained with number of loops over 1000 and 10 mm clearance between two strands.     

带偏置点的绳系拖拽离轨系统动力学研究

考虑空间拖船利用飞网/飞爪对空间残骸捕获结束后绳系拖拽系统的动力学特性,开展了基于简化的带偏置点构型的建模及仿真研究.首先,捕获后的组合体包括空间拖船、系绳和空间残骸,系绳在空间残骸一端的牵挂点看作偏置点,给出相应的的绳系拖拽系统构型;其次,以降轨离轨过程为例,建立系统能量方程,并根据欧拉-拉格朗日方程给出系统的动力学表达式并估算系绳张紧情况下的平衡点;最后,设定离轨推力,在不同的初始角速度、系绳张紧或松弛以及不同松弛程度条件下,分析绳系拖拽离轨系统的动力学行为.研究表明,空间残骸小的初始角速度和张紧或略微松弛的系绳能够保证安全离轨.     

天基激光移除空间碎片仿真平台研究与开发

为了从空间碎片和天基移除系统两方面分析激光驱动碎片变轨过程,优化移除任务规划和策略,基于真实的可观测空间碎片数据,设计并开发了一套天基激光移除空间碎片三维数值仿真平台。首先从总体设计出发,对三维数值仿真平台的需求分析、总体框架、模块功能进行了明确的描述。其次通过对激光驱动空间碎片变轨过程数学模型的分析,确定了各模块的具体实现方法。最后采用C++/Qt开发了三维数值仿真平台,通过仿真验证了设计平台的有效性。该仿真平台可用于不同天基平台和目标碎片的任务规划、碎片分布热点区域和航天器防护区域的方案设计及空间环境治理体系的优化设计。     

A novel data association scheme for LEO space debris surveillance based on a double fence radar system

The increasing amount of space debris threatens to seriously deteriorate and damage space-based instruments in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) environments. Therefore, LEO space debris surveillance systems must be developed to provide situational awareness in space and issue warnings of collisions with LEO space debris. In this paper, a double fence radar system is proposed as an emerging paradigm for LEO space debris surveillance. This system exhibits several unique and promising characteristics compared with existing surveillance systems. In this paper, we also investigate the data association scheme for LEO space debris surveillance based on a double fence radar system. We also perform a theoretical analysis of the performance of our proposed scheme. The superiority and the effectiveness of our novel data association scheme is demonstrated by experimental results. The data used in our experiments is the LEO space debris catalog produced by the North American Air Defense Command (NORAD) up to 2009, especially for scenarios with high densities of LEO space debris, which were primarily produced by the collisions between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251. We hope that our work will stimulate and benefit future work on LEO space debris surveillance approaches and enable construction of the double fence radar system.     

Approaching control for tethered space robot based on disturbance observer using super twisting law

Approaching control is a key mission for the tethered space robot to perform the task of removing space debris. But the uncertainties of the TSR such as the change of model parameter have an important effect on the approaching mission. Considering the space tether and the attitude of the gripper, the dynamic model of the TSR is derived using Lagrange method. Then a disturbance observer is designed to estimate the uncertainty based on STW control method. Using the disturbance observer, a controller is designed, and the performance is compared with the dynamic inverse controller which turns out that the proposed controller performs better. Numerical simulation validates the feasibility of the proposed controller on the position and attitude tracking of the TSR.     

An optimal beam alignment method for large-scale distributed space surveillance radar system

Large-scale distributed space surveillance radar is a very important ground-based equipment to maintain a complete catalogue for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space debris. However, due to the thousands of kilometers distance between each sites of the distributed radar system, how to optimally implement the Transmitting/Receiving (T/R) beams alignment in a great space using the narrow beam, which proposed a special and considerable technical challenge in the space surveillance area. According to the common coordinate transformation model and the radar beam space model, we presented a two dimensional projection algorithm for T/R beam using the direction angles, which could visually describe and assess the beam alignment performance. Subsequently, the optimal mathematical models for the orientation angle of the antenna array, the site location and the T/R beam coverage are constructed, and also the beam alignment parameters are precisely solved. At last, we conducted the optimal beam alignment experiments base on the site parameters of Air Force Space Surveillance System (AFSSS). The simulation results demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of our novel method, which can significantly stimulate the construction for the LEO space debris surveillance equipment.