地球同步轨道高能电子通量预报方法研究

统计分析了GOES卫星测量得到的E > 2MeV能道电子通量与地磁Ap指数及太阳风数据的关系, 构建了基于径向基函数RBF的神经网络模型框架, 对GOES-12卫星所处的地球同步轨道高能电子通量进行提前1天的预报, 其对2008-2010年数据预测的效果较好. 另外, 发现在GOES-12卫星观测的E >2MeV能道高能电子达到108 cm-2·d-1·sr-1以上时, FY-2D卫星的测量数据同时达到108 cm-2·d-1·sr-1以上的比例达到90%左右. 通过对FY-2D卫星E >2MeV能道电子通量与GOES卫星E>2MeV电子通量的相关性分析, 建立了FY-2D卫星高能电子预报模型, 预报结果与实测通量符合较好.      

质子辐射带辐射中心区域模型

利用AP-8和CRRESPRO质子辐射带模式数据库, 比较了二者在磁赤道面上计算结果 的差异并给出其差异原因. 利用AP-8模式数据库数据, 建立起质子辐射带函数形式的辐射中心区域模式, 包括各能道全向微分通量峰值所对应的L值(L_c) 随能量E的变化模式以及各能道全向微分通量峰值J_max随能量E的变化模式. 利用RBSP A卫星REPT望远镜在磁赤道面上的高能质子观测数据, 分别与 AP-8模式、CRRESPRO模式及本文所得辐射中心区域模式计算结果进行比较, 发现在78.9, 102.6和208MeV三个能道上, RBSP A卫星观测所得各能道全向微分 通量明显偏大, 而L_c与AP-8或本文辐射中心模式所得结果基本一致; RBSP A卫星也观测到CRRESPRO Quiet模式所得的隐性第二质子辐射带结构.      

地磁长期变化引起的低高度卫星轨道辐射带粒子环境的变化

利用IGRF2000模式计算了几个典型轨道辐射带粒子环境并与IGRF1970模式计算的结果进行了比较。计算结果表明，在辐射带的低部，对应某些倾角的能量大于0．1MeV质子的轨道积分通量变化达到2个量级，而通量大10MeV的辐射带质子的轨道积分通量变化达到1个量级；轨道积分通量的最大值变化为1个量级。能量大于0．04MeV辐射带电子的轨道积分通量变化在某些倾角达到3个量级，但轨道积分最大值的变化低于1个量级。1000km以上高度辐射带粒子环境的变化很小。     

1984年4月24日大太阳耀斑爆发对电离层电子总含量的影响

本文给出1984年4月24日2356UT太阳耀斑爆发期间在新乡和重庆两地利用法拉第技术接收日本同步卫星ETS-Ⅱ的甚高频信号所得到的电离层电子总含量的异常变化。两站在耀斑爆发期间的三分半钟内同时观测到电离层电子总含量的突然急剧增加。它们的增量分别为9.4×1016和14.3×1016ele/m2.本文还将偏振仪所观测到的现象与电离层垂测记录及甚低频锁相接收机所观测到的记录作了比较。分析的结果表明,大太阳耀斑期间不仅D层的电子浓度大大增加,而且F层的电子浓度也显着增加,后者是这次总含量剧增的主要部分。      

地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量的动态预报模型

地球同步轨道区域充满能量高达MeV的高能电子,其对航天器威胁极大.电子微分通量预报有助于及时有效地预警高能电子事件,降低高能电子对航天器造成的危害.本文以此为背景提出了一种基于经验正交函数（EOF）方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量预报模型.该模型利用太阳风参数及地磁指数拟合后一天的电子通量EOF系数,结合EOF基函数给出后一天中大于2MeV电子微分通量预报.对2003年1月至2006年6月的样本测试结果表明,该模型可以重构出电子微分通量的真实变化,给出较好的5min微分通量预报,其平均预报效率达到67%左右.      

FY-3A卫星与NOOA系列卫星高能带电粒子实测结果的比较

FY-3A卫星是运行于830 km高度的太阳同步轨道气象卫星,其搭载的空间环境监测器可观测3～300 MeV的高能质子和0.15～5.70 MeV的高能电子.FY-3A卫星在轨工作期间,太阳活动处于由谷年向峰年过渡期,空间环境非常平静,探测结果显示3～300 MeV的高能质子分布主要集中在南大西洋辐射带异常区,0.15～5.70 MeV的高能电子分布区域除南大西洋异常区外,还分布在南北两极高纬区域.FY-3A与NOAA卫星测量结果反映出带电粒子强度及分布区域随投掷角变化的空间各向异性特征.本文在充分考虑了带电粒子时间、空间分布差异以及比对探测器之间自身设计差异的前提下,经过归一化处理后,首次对两颗卫星同期探测结果进行相关性分析,验证了两颗卫星相同时空条件下高能带电粒子通量分布的一致性;说明FY-3A空间环境监测器不仅具备空间带电粒子辐射监测能力,且探测结果有效可靠,可用作辐射带环境数据源的组成部分,为发展新的模型,深入研究辐射带高能粒子的分布、起源和传输等提供新的观测依据.     

FY-3A卫星与NOAA系列卫星高能带电粒子实测结果的比较

FY-3A卫星是运行于830 km高度的太阳同步轨道气象卫星, 其搭载的空间环境监测器可观测3~300 MeV的高能质子和0.15~5.70 MeV的高能电子. FY-3A卫星在轨工作期间, 太阳活动处于由谷年向峰年过渡期, 空间环境非常平静, 探测结果显示3~300 MeV的高能质子分布主要集中在南大西洋辐射带异常区, 0.15~5.70 MeV的高能电子分布区域除南大西洋异常区外, 还分布在南北两极高纬区域. FY-3A与NOAA卫星测量结果反映出带电粒子强度及分布区域随投掷角变化的空间各向异性特征. 本文在充分考虑了带电粒子时间、空间分布差异以及比对探测器之间自身设计差异的前提下, 经过归一化处理后, 首次对两颗卫星同期探测结果进行相关性分析, 验证了两颗卫星相同时空条件下高能带电粒子通量分布的一致性; 说明FY-3A空间环境监测器不仅具备空间带电粒子辐射监测能力, 且探测结果有效可靠, 可用作辐射带环境数据源的组成部分, 为发展新的模型, 深入研究辐射带高能粒子的分布、起源和传输等提供新的观测依据.      

太阳周期活动对低高度内辐射带高能质子的影响

利用NOAA-15卫星1998年到2011年近13年的高能质子全向通量观测资料, 分析了一个太阳活动周内, 低高度内辐射带高能质子通量的分布变化特性及其物理原因, 比较了观测结果与AP8模型的不同. 研究表明, 低高度内辐射带高能质子通量与太阳活动水平的反相关关系与磁壳参数L值及磁场B值有关; L值越低, B值越大的空间点, 其高能质子通量与太阳活动水平的反向相关性越明显. 高能质子通量随太阳活动水平的变化存在明显滞后现象, L值越高、 B值越小的空间点, 滞后现象就越明显, 滞后严重时可以达到一年左右的时间; 这种滞后现象反映出低高度内辐射带高能质子的源与损失达到平衡是一个中长期过程. 通过与AP8模型计算结果的比较分析可以看出, 利用AP8模型时, 仅考虑地磁场长期变化对质子通量的影响可能会夸大低高度内辐射带局部高能质子通量的增强.      

基于经验模态分解的地球同步轨道高能电子通量预报

在磁暴恢复相期间,大量相对论(高能)电子从磁层的外辐射带渗透到地球同步轨道区.其中> 2 MeV的高能电子能够穿透卫星表面并聚积在材料内部,导致卫星无法正常运行或完全损坏.磁暴期间的高能电子通量变化的非平稳与非线性特征十分明显.通过实验发现,经验模态分解法能够极大地降低高能电子通量非平稳性问题造成的预报影响.以2008-2009年的数据作为训练集,2010-2013年数据作为测试集.结果表明:2010-2013年的预报率约为0.84;在太阳活动较为复杂的2013年,预报率达到0.81.引入经验模态分解后预报效率得到显著提高.     

辐射带高能电子通量波动与地磁暴警报

地球磁场捕获带电粒子形成辐射带,地磁场的扰动将导致带电粒子通量的变化.根据磁暴期间外辐射带高能电子通量起伏和波动的特点及规律,利用GOES卫星实时发布的5min分辨率高能电子微分通量数据,构建了高能电子通量波动指数,并分析了该指数与地磁活动的关系.结果表明,所提出的高能电子通量波动指数与地磁事件有很好的相关性,能起到地磁暴发生的指示剂作用,相对于目前空间环境业务化预报过程中广泛使用的3hKp指数,高能电子通量波动指数能更早地警报地磁暴的发生,是潜在有效的地磁暴警报辅助手段,能为空间环境预报中的地磁暴实时警报提供重要参考.      

Distribution of energetic particles and secondary radiation according to orbital station “MIR” data obtained in 1991

A set of instruments for measuring energetic particle fluxes, containing two neutron detectors under different plexiglas shielding thicknesses, a scintillation detector, measuring energy release >0. I MeV and 0.5 MeV and a Geiger counter were launched onboard OS ‘MIR’. The latitude dependencies of the cosmic ray measurements were obtained and studied. The distributions of primary particle fluxes (protons and electrons) as well as secondary particle fluxes (bremsstrahlung gamma-rays and neutrons) produced in interactions of radiation belt particles with the station materials were obtained. The electron belt, generated during the storm of March 24 1991, is studied.     

Dynamics of the low altitude secondary proton radiation belt

At the interface between the upper atmosphere and the radiation belt region, there exists a secondary radiation belt consisting mainly of energetic ions that have become neutralized in the ring current and the main radiation belt and then re-ionized by collisions in the inner exosphere. The time history of the proton fluxes in the 0.64 – 35 MeV energy range was traced in the equatorial region beneath the main radiation belts during the three year period from 21 February 1984 to 26 March 1987 using data obtained with the HEP experiment on board the Japanese OHZORA satellite. During most of this period a fairly small proton flux of −1.2 cm⁻² s⁻¹ sr⁻¹ was detected on geomagnetic field lines in the range 1.05 < L < 1.15. We report a few surprisingly deep and rapid flux decreases (flux reduction by typically two orders of magnitude). These flux decreases were also long in duration (lasting up to three months). We also registered abrupt flux increases where the magnitude of the proton flux enhancements could reach three orders of magnitude with an enhancement duration of 1–3 days. Possible reasons for these unexpected phenomena are discussed.     

The heliolongitudinal distribution of solar flares associated with solar proton events.

We find that the heliolongitudinal distribution of solar flares associated with earth-observed solar proton events is a function of the particle measurement energy. For solar proton events containing fluxes with energies exceeding 1 GeV, we find a Gaussian distribution about the probable root of the Archimedean spiral favorable propagation path leading from the earth to the sun. This distribution is modified as the detection threshold is lowered. For > 100 MeV solar proton events with fluxes > or = 10 protons (cm2-sec-ster)-1 we find the distribution becomes wider with a secondary peak near the solar central meridian. When the threshold is lowered to 10 MeV the distribution further evolves. For > 10 MeV solar proton events having a flux threshold at 10 protons (cm2-sec-ster)-1 the distribution can be considered to be a composite of two Gaussians. One distribution is centered about the probable root of the Archimedean spiral favorable propagation path leading from the earth to the sun, and the other is centered about the solar central meridian. For large flux solar proton events, those with flux threshold of 1000 (cm2-sec-ster)-1 at energies > 10 MeV, we find the distribution is rather flat for about 40 degrees either side of central meridian.     

Trapped antiprotons produced by cosmic rays in the Earth's magnetosphere.

The existence of significant fluxes of antiparticles in the Earth magnetosphere has been predicted on theoretical considerations in this article. These antiparticles (positrons or antiprotons) at several hundred kilometers of altitudes, we believe are not of direct extraterrestrial origin, but are the natural products of nuclear reactions of the high energy primary cosmic rays (CR) and trapped protons (TP) confined in the terrestrial radiation belt, with the constituents of terrestrial atmosphere. Extraterrestrial positrons and antiprotons born in nuclear reactions of the same CR particles passing through only 5-7 g/cm2 of interstellar matter, exhibit lower fluxes compared to the antiprotons born at hundreds of g/cm2 in the atmosphere, which when confined in the magnetic field of the Earth (in any other planet), get accumulated. We present the results of the computations of the antiproton fluxes at 10 MeV to several GeV energies due to CR particle interactions with the matter in the interstellar space, and also with the residual atmosphere at altitudes of approximately 1000 km over the Earth's surface. The estimates show that the magnetospheric antiproton fluxes are greater by two orders of magnitude compared to the extraterrestrial fluxes measured at energies <1-2 GeV.     

Statistical properties of SEP event flux declines

The interplanetary space is not a passive medium, which merely constitutes a scene for the propagation of previously accelerated energetic particles, but influences the distribution of particles by changing their energies as well due to interactions with magnetic field inhomogeneities. Such processes manifest themselves in the energy spectra of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. In this paper the fluxes of protons with energies of 4–60 MeV are investigated on the basis of two data sets. Both sets are homogeneous, obtained by the CPME instrument aboard the IMP 8 satellite between 1974 and 2001. The first includes all SEP events where the integral fluxes of >4 MeV protons exceeded 2 particle/cm² s sr. The other set consists of fluxes recorded in differential energy windows between 0.5 and 48 MeV. Important characteristics of SEP events include the rates of decrease of particle flux, which, as well as peak flux time, is an integral feature of the interplanetary medium within a considerable region, surrounding the observation point. The time intervals selected cover the decay phases of SEP events following flares, CMEs and interplanetary shocks of different origin. Only those parts of declines were selected, that could reasonably be described by exponential dependence, irrespective of the gradual/impulsive character of the events. It is shown that the average values of characteristic decay time, τ, and energy spectral index, γ, are all changing with the solar activity phase. Distributions of τ and γ values are obtained in SEPs with and without shocks and during different phases of events: just after peak flux and late after maximum.     

Study of correlations between waves and particle fluxes measured on board the DEMETER satellite

The topic of relativistic electron dynamics in the outer radiation belt has received considerable attention for many years. Nevertheless, the problem of understanding the physical phenomenon involved is far from being resolved. In this paper, we use DEMETER observations to examine the variations of the energetic electron fluxes and ELF/VLF wave intensities in the inner magnetosphere during the intense 8 November 2004 magnetic storm. Electron flux spectra and associated wave intensity spectra are analysed throughout the magnetic storm and common characteristics or differences to other storm events are retained. The overall objective of this study is to identify and derive parameters that are relevant for particle flux modelling; the time constant characterizing the persistent decay after particle enhancement was found to be one of these important model parameters.The analysis of the 8 November 2004 event reveals that for L-shell parameter higher than 4, an electron flux dropout is observed during the storm’s main phase for electrons in the energy range 0.1–1 MeV, as has been reported from other measurements. Characteristic wave spectra accompanying this phase are analysed. They show a typical enhancement in the frequency range 0.3–10 kHz at onset for all L-shell values under consideration (2 < L < 5). During the first stage of the recovery phase, the electron fluxes are increased to a level higher than the pre-storm level, whereas the level of wave intensity in the frequency range observed below 300 Hz is at its highest. In the second stage, the particle flux decrease goes hand in hand with a global wave activity decline, the relaxation time of the latter being smaller than the former’s one. In some other cases, long-lasting electron enhancement associated with constant wave activity has been observed during this latter stage. For the above mentioned storm, while at low L values the decay time constants are higher for low energy electrons than for high energy electrons, this order is reversed at high L values. At about L = 3.6 the time constant is independent of electron energy.     

Statistical study of energetic electrons in Jupiter’s inner magnetosphere by Juno/JEDI

The Juno spacecraft made the first in-situ observations of energetic particles in the polar region of Jupiter’s magnetosphere. After Jupiter Orbit Insertion (JOI) in July 2016, data from ~20 Juno perijoves (PJs) obtained by Juno/JEDI are accumulated, providing an excellent opportunity to study the long term spatio-temporal distribution of energetic particles in Jupiter’s radiation belt. We transform Juno’s position from a Cartesian to a magnetic coordinate system by tracing magnetic field lines based on a fourth order Runge-Kutta method. Then the fluxes of energetic electrons from PJ1 to PJ14 sorted by different locations in magnetic coordinate space and the data are well organized by the L-shell parameter. The variation of electron flux increases with L-shell. The deviation (the ratio of the 75th percentile to the 25th percentile) of 0.51 MeV electron flux varies from a factor of 1.23 near L = 9.5 to 27.57 near L = 15.5. However, the mean flux decreases by about one order of magnitude in the same region. The electron spectra at larger L-shells are softer than that at smaller L-shells. On the other hand, the electron flux decreases more rapidly with increased L-shell when the location is off the equator. Along an L-shell, the electron flux decrease at first and then increase again from equator to mid-latitude region. In addition, we compare the statistical results with the widely used GIRE2 model. JEDI data correspond well with the GIRE2 model when the L-shell is > 14.75. GIRE2 underestimate the electron flux for L-shell smaller than 13.25. These results of this analysis are applicable to estimate the effects of the radiation environment in Jupiter’s magnetosphere.     

Qualitative estimation of magnetic storm efficiency in producing relativistic electron flux in the Earth’s outer radiation belt using geomagnetic pulsations data

It is well known that during many but not all of the geomagnetic storms enhanced fluxes of high-energy electrons are observed in the outer radiation belt. Here we examine relativistic (>2 MeV) electron fluxes measured by GOES at the synchronous orbit and on-ground observations of two types of ULF pulsations during 30 magnetic storms occurred during 1996–2000. To characterize the effectiveness of the chosen magnetic storms in producing relativistic electron fluxes, following to (Reeves, G.D., McAdams, K.L., Friedel, R.H.W., O’Brien, T.R. Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during geomagnetic storms. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, doi:10.1029/2002GL016513, 2003), we calculate a ratio of the maximum daily-averaged electron flux measured during the recovery phase, to the mean pre-storm electron flux. A storm is considered an effective one if its ratio exceeds 2. We compare behavior of Pi1 and Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations during effective and non-effective storms and find a tendency for a storm efficiency to be higher when the mid-latitude Pi1 pulsations are observed for a long time during the magnetic storm main phase. We note also that the prolonged powerful Pc5 pulsation activity during the recovery phase of a magnetic storm is the necessary condition for the storm effectiveness. To interpret the found dependences, we suggest that there are two prerequisites for generating relativistic electron populations during a storm: (1) the availability of seed electrons in the magnetosphere, and Pi1 emissions are indicators of the mid-energy electron interaction with the ionosphere and (2) acceleration of the seed electrons to MeV energies, and interaction of electrons with the MHD wave activity in the Pc5 range is one of the most probable mechanisms proposed in the literature for this purpose.