Storm-time formation of a relativistic electron belt and some relevant phenomena in other magnetospheric plasma domains

An empirical formula relating the strength of a storm given by its |Dst|_max with the L-coordinate of the peak of storm-injected relativistic electrons is one of a few well-confirmed quantitative relations found in the magneto-spheric physics. We successively extended a dataset of the formula’s basic storms with several events of high Dst-amplitude up to the highest observed |Dst|_max = 600 nT. Possible applying of the formula to the predicting of the ring-current plasma-pressure distribution and the lowest westward electrojet position for a storm are discussed. We have also analyzed the 2000–2001 years’ data on relativistic electrons from our instruments installed on EXPRESS-A (geosynchronous orbit; E_e = 0.8–6 MeV), Molniya-3 (h = 500 × 40 000 km, i = 63°; E_e = 0.8–5.5 MeV) and GLONASS (h = 20 000 km, i = 64°; E_e  l MeV) along with other correlated measurements: GOES series (E_e > 2 MeV), geomagnetic indices (Dst, AE, AL) and interplanetary parameters (solar wind, IMF). The goal is to investigate which outer conditions are most responsible for the high/low output of the storm-injected relativistic electrons. For the geosynchronous orbit, two factors are found as the necessary condition of the highest electron output: high and long-lasting substorm activity on a storm recovery phase and high velocity of solar wind. On the contrary, extremely low substorm activity surely observed during whole the storm recovery phase constitutes a sufficient condition of the non-increased after-storm electron intensity. For the first time found cases of the increased after-storm electron intensity observed at the inner L-shells with no simultaneously seen increase in the geosynchronous distances are presented.     

Input Parameters for Models of Energetic Electrons Fluxes at the Geostationary Orbit

The results of cross-correlation analysis between electrons fluxes (with energies of > 0.6MeV, > 2.0 MeV and > 4.0MeV), geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are shown in the paper. It is determined that the electron fluxes are controlled not only by the geomagnetic indices, but also by the solar wind parameters, and the solar wind velocity demonstrates the best relation with the electron fluxes. Numerical value of the relation efficiency of external parameters with the highly energetic electrons fluxes shows a periodicity. It is presented here the preliminary results of daily averaged electrons fluxes forecast for a day ahead on the basis of the model of neuron networks.     

The role of drift and convection–diffusion mechanisms in small energy global cosmic ray modulation: Application to the hysteresis phenomenon of proton and alpha particle satellite data

The hysteresis effect for small energies of galactic cosmic rays is due to two effects. The first is the same as for neutron monitor energies – the delay of the interplanetary processes responsible for cosmic ray modulation with respect to the initiating solar processes, according to the effective velocity of solar wind and shock waves propagation. Then, the observed cosmic ray intensity is connected to the solar activity variations during many months before the time of cosmic ray measurement. The second is caused by the time delay of small energy cosmic ray diffusion from the boundary of modulation region to the Earth’s orbit. The model describing the connection between solar activity variation and cosmic ray convection–diffusion global modulation for neutron monitor energies is here developed by taking into account also the time-lag of the small energy particle diffusion in the Heliosphere. We use theoretical results on drifts and analytically approximate the dependences of drifts from tilt angle, and take into account the dependence from the sign of primary particles, and from the sign of polar magnetic field (A > 0 or A < 0). The obtained results are applied on proton and alpha-particle satellite data. We analyze satellite 5-min data of proton fluxes with energies >1 MeV, >2 MeV, >5 MeV, >10 MeV, >30 MeV, >50 MeV, >60 MeV, >100 MeV, and in intervals 10–30 MeV, 30–60 MeV, and 60–100 MeV during January 1986–December 1999. We exclude periods with great cosmic ray increases caused by particle acceleration in solar flare events. Then, we determine monthly averaged fluxes, as well as 5-month and 11-month smoothed data. We analyze also satellite 5-min data on alpha-particle fluxes in the energy intervals 60-160 MeV, 160–260 MeV and 330–500 MeV during January 1986–May 2000. We correct observation data for drifts and then compare with what is expected according to the convection–diffusion mechanism. We assume different dimensions of the modulation region (by the time propagation X₀ of solar wind from the Sun to the boundary of modulation region), for X₀ values from 1 to 60 average months, by one-month steps. For each value of X₀ we determine the correlation coefficient between variations of expected and observed cosmic ray intensities (the estimation of cosmic ray intensities values is given in Section 3 by Eq. (9), and the determination of correlation and regression coefficients in Section 3 by Eq. (8)). The dimension of modulation region is determined by the value of X_0 max, for which the correlation coefficient reaches the maximum value. Then the effective radial diffusion coefficient and residual modulation in small energy region can be estimated.     

上游太阳风中高能电子向同步轨道区的传输

通常认为，同步轨道区的电子通量增加是由于磁暴或者上游太阳风高速流的扰动所引起．近来的观测表明，起源于太阳活动的行星际高能电子也是引起同步轨道电子通量增加的重要原因之一．Zhao等在研究2000年7月14日太阳剧烈活动时发现，同步轨道区相对论电子通量巨幅增加时没有观察到上游太阳风高速流的扰动，并且磁暴发生在电子通量事件之后．采用解析磁场模型和实际磁场模型(T96模型)模拟来自太阳的相对论电子在磁尾中的运动特性．计算结果表明，当行星际磁场南向时，进入到磁尾的行星际相对论电子可以从较远的磁尾区域运动到同步轨道区域．这一研究结果从理论上论证了起源于太阳活动的高能电子可以对同步轨道区相对论电子通量的增加产生重要的作用．     

2010年4月地球同步轨道相对论电子增强事件分析

为研究2010年4月地球同步轨道相对论电子通量异常增强事件的原因, 选取了2004-2010年之间高速太阳风下7个类似事件进行对比分析. 探讨了多种可能导致此次异常事件的太阳风和地磁条件. 结果表明, 较弱的磁暴使得相对论电子高通量区域更接近同步轨道, 此外, 哨声波加速很可能在2010年4月地球同步轨道相对论电子通量异常增强事件中起到重要作用. 磁暴强度与种子电子的注入深度密切相关, 表现为Dst指数曲线的形态与能量为30～100keV的电子高通量区域的下边缘高度吻合. 能量为30～100keV电子的注入深度影响了能量大于300keV的电子出现的磁层区域. 此事件中, 由于磁暴相对较弱, 种子电子向内磁层注入的深度较浅, 更靠近同步轨道区域, 这使得相对论电子大量出现的区域也靠近同步轨道, 最终导致同步轨道相对论电子通量异常增强. 另外, 2010年4月地球同步轨道相对论电子通量异常增强事件中, 高强度的亚暴提供了充足的种子电子并加强了波粒相互作用, 这也是相对论电子增强的必要条件.      

地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量的动态预报模型

地球同步轨道区域充满能量高达MeV的高能电子,其对航天器威胁极大.电子微分通量预报有助于及时有效地预警高能电子事件,降低高能电子对航天器造成的危害.本文以此为背景提出了一种基于经验正交函数（EOF）方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量预报模型.该模型利用太阳风参数及地磁指数拟合后一天的电子通量EOF系数,结合EOF基函数给出后一天中大于2MeV电子微分通量预报.对2003年1月至2006年6月的样本测试结果表明,该模型可以重构出电子微分通量的真实变化,给出较好的5min微分通量预报,其平均预报效率达到67%左右.      

Qualitative estimation of magnetic storm efficiency in producing relativistic electron flux in the Earth’s outer radiation belt using geomagnetic pulsations data

It is well known that during many but not all of the geomagnetic storms enhanced fluxes of high-energy electrons are observed in the outer radiation belt. Here we examine relativistic (>2 MeV) electron fluxes measured by GOES at the synchronous orbit and on-ground observations of two types of ULF pulsations during 30 magnetic storms occurred during 1996–2000. To characterize the effectiveness of the chosen magnetic storms in producing relativistic electron fluxes, following to (Reeves, G.D., McAdams, K.L., Friedel, R.H.W., O’Brien, T.R. Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during geomagnetic storms. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, doi:10.1029/2002GL016513, 2003), we calculate a ratio of the maximum daily-averaged electron flux measured during the recovery phase, to the mean pre-storm electron flux. A storm is considered an effective one if its ratio exceeds 2. We compare behavior of Pi1 and Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations during effective and non-effective storms and find a tendency for a storm efficiency to be higher when the mid-latitude Pi1 pulsations are observed for a long time during the magnetic storm main phase. We note also that the prolonged powerful Pc5 pulsation activity during the recovery phase of a magnetic storm is the necessary condition for the storm effectiveness. To interpret the found dependences, we suggest that there are two prerequisites for generating relativistic electron populations during a storm: (1) the availability of seed electrons in the magnetosphere, and Pi1 emissions are indicators of the mid-energy electron interaction with the ionosphere and (2) acceleration of the seed electrons to MeV energies, and interaction of electrons with the MHD wave activity in the Pc5 range is one of the most probable mechanisms proposed in the literature for this purpose.     

强磁暴、能量粒子暴与热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系

利用1997-2007年由GOES8, GOES11和GOES12星载高能粒子探测器在地球同步轨道高度上所探测到的高能质子和高能电子通量探测数据以及高度560km左右星载大气密度探测器所得的热层大气密度探测数据, 统计分析了强地磁扰动、高能粒子通量跃变和热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系, 初步获得强地磁扰动期间, 地球同步轨道(外辐射带外环)均出现了增幅大于三个数量级的高能质子通量(尤其是E>1MeV)强增强现象, 随后热 层大气密度强烈上涨, 表明三者之间是正相关关系. 在时间上地球同步轨道高能质子通量强增强现象先于日均Ap值(地磁活动程度)上涨约一天左右, 而热层大气密度强涨落现象又明显滞后于强地磁扰动事件.      

基于经验模态分解的地球同步轨道高能电子通量预报

在磁暴恢复相期间,大量相对论(高能)电子从磁层的外辐射带渗透到地球同步轨道区.其中> 2 MeV的高能电子能够穿透卫星表面并聚积在材料内部,导致卫星无法正常运行或完全损坏.磁暴期间的高能电子通量变化的非平稳与非线性特征十分明显.通过实验发现,经验模态分解法能够极大地降低高能电子通量非平稳性问题造成的预报影响.以2008-2009年的数据作为训练集,2010-2013年数据作为测试集.结果表明:2010-2013年的预报率约为0.84;在太阳活动较为复杂的2013年,预报率达到0.81.引入经验模态分解后预报效率得到显著提高.     

Geosynchronous magnetic field response to the large and fast solar wind dynamic pressure change

We present a comparison of large and sharp solar wind dynamic pressure changes, observed by several spacecraft, with fast disturbances in the magnetospheric magnetic field measured by the GOES-8, 9 and 10 geosynchronous satellites. Almost 400 solar wind pressure changes in the period 1996–2003 were selected for this study. Using the large statistics we confirmed that increases (decreases) in the dynamic pressure always results in increases (decreases) in the magnitude of geosynchronous B_z component. The amplitude of the geosynchronous B_z response strongly depends on the location of observer relative to the noon meridian, from the value of solar wind pressure before the disturbance arriving and firstly – from the amplitude of the pressure change.     

Solar proton events recorded in the stratosphere during cosmic ray balloon observations in 1957–2008

Long-term balloon observations have been performed by the Lebedev Physical Institute since 1957 up to the present time. The observations are taken several times a week at the polar and mid latitudes and allow us to study dynamics of galactic and solar cosmic ray as well as secondary particle fluxes in the atmosphere and in the near-Earth space. Solar energetic particles (120) – mostly protons – (SEP) events with >100 MeV proton intensity above 1 cm⁻² s⁻¹ s⁻¹ were recorded during 1958–2006. Before the advent of the SEP monitoring on spacecraft these results constituted the only homogeneous series of >100 MeV SEP events. The SEP intensities and energy spectra inferred from the Lebedev Physical Institute observations are consistent with the results taken in the adjacent energy intervals by the spacecraft and neutron monitors. Joint consideration of the SEP events series recorded by balloons and by neutron monitors during solar cycles 20–23 makes it possible to restore the probable number of events in solar cycle 19, which was not properly covered by observations. Some correlation was found between duration of SEP event production in a solar cycle and sunspot cycle characteristics.     

Viewing radiation signatures of solar energetic particles in interplanetary space

A current serious limitation on the studies of solar energetic particle (SEP) events is that their properties in the inner heliosphere are studied only through in situ spacecraft observations. Our understanding of spatial distributions and temporal variations of SEP events has come through statistical studies of many such events over several solar cycles. In contrast, flare SEPs in the solar corona can be imaged through their radiative and collisional interactions with solar fields and particles. We suggest that the heliospheric SEPs may also interact with heliospheric particles and fields to produce signatures which can be remotely observed and imaged. A challenge with any such candidate signature is to separate it from that of flare SEPs. The optimum case for imaging high-energy (E > 100 MeV) heliospheric protons may be the emission of π⁰-decay γ-rays following proton collisions with solar wind (SW) ions. In the case of E > 1 MeV electrons, gyrosynchrotron radio emission may be the most readily detectible remote signal. In both cases we may already have observed one or two such events. Another radiative signature from nonthermal particles may be resonant transition radiation, which has likely already been observed from solar flare electrons. We discuss energetic neutrons as another possible remote signature, but we rule out γ-ray line and 0.511 MeV positron annihilation emission as observable signatures of heliospheric energetic ions. We are already acquiring global signatures of large inner-heliospheric SW density features and of heliosheath interactions between the SW and interstellar neutral ions. By finding an appropriate observable signature of remote heliospheric SEPs, we could supplement the in situ observations with global maps of energetic SEP events to provide a comprehensive view of SEP events.     

A solar wind driven model of geosynchronous plasma moments

We describe a tabular specification model of the density and temperature of ions and electrons at geosynchronous orbit as a function of magnetic local time and solar wind parameters. This model can be used to provide boundary conditions for numerical ring current models. Unlike previous specification models of geosynchronous plasma moments, this model is parameterized by upstream solar wind conditions. We find that solar wind parameters are a better predictor of geosynchronous ion density than magnetospheric indices, and as upstream parameters they are often more appropriate as model inputs since they causally precede the model outputs. Of the upstream parameters that were tested, the best predictors of geosynchronous conditions were the solar wind flow pressure and the magnitude and Z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field.     

The Compton–Getting effect of energetic particles with an anisotropic pitch-angle distribution

This paper presents a simulation of anisotropy measurements by the low-energy charged particle (LECP) experiment on Voyager 1 for cases when the particle pitch-angle distribution function in the solar wind plasma reference frame is not isotropic. The model includes both the Compton–Getting anisotropy and perpendicular diffusion anisotropy that possibly exists in the upstream region of the termination shock. The results show that the Voyager 1 data cannot rule out either the model with zero solar wind speed or the one with a finite speed on qualitative basis. The determination of solar wind speed using the Compton–Getting effect is affected by the assumption of the magnetic field direction and perpendicular diffusion anisotropy. Because the pitch-angle distribution anisotropy is so large, a small uncertainty in the magnetic field direction can produce very different solar wind speeds ranging from ∼0 to >400 km/s. In fact, if the magnetic field is chosen to be in the Parker spiral direction, which is consistent with the magnetometer measurement on Voyager 1, the derived solar wind speed is still close to the supersonic value. Only the two lowest-energy channels of the LECP instrument may give a definitive answer to the solar wind speed. However, because these channels contain a very high level of cosmic ray background, an uncertainty of just a few percent in the background can entirely hamper the estimate of solar wind speed.     

使用地磁脉动参数定量预报地球同步轨道相对论电子通量的建模研究

磁层超低频波(ULF波)对种子电子的加速机制是磁层相对论电子产生的一个重要机制, 而地磁脉动参数可以作为此机制的有效指标. 本文采用地磁脉动参数作为输入参数, 借鉴线性预测滤波器技术, 构建一个多参量非线性函数, 进而利用此函数以及卡尔曼滤波技术, 建立一个地球同步轨道相对论电子通量日积分值预报模式, 提供提前一天的预报值. 使用2004年数据对该模式进行训练, 预报结果的预报效率为0.73, 线性相关系数为0.85. 使用2005-2006年的数据对该模式进行测试, 预报值与实测值之间的线性相关系数为0.83, 预报效率为0.69, 相比Persistence模式具有较大提升, 与仿REFM模式的预报效率相当      

Mercury Ion Analyzer (MIA) onboard Mercury Magnetospheric Orbiter: MMO

The Mercury Magnetopsheric Orbiter (MMO) is one of the spacecraft of the BepiColombo mission; the mission is scheduled for launch in 2014 and plans to revisit Mercury with modern instrumentation. MMO is to elucidate the detailed plasma structure and dynamics around Mercury, one of the least-explored planets in our solar system. The Mercury Plasma Particle Experiment (MPPE) on board MMO is a comprehensive instrument package for plasma, high-energy particle, and energetic neutral particle atom measurements. The Mercury Ion Analyzer (MIA) is one of the plasma instruments of MPPE, and measures the three dimensional velocity distribution of low-energy ions (from 5 eV to 30 keV) by using a top-hat electrostatic analyzer for half a spin period (2 s). By combining both the mechanical and electrical sensitivity controls, MIA has a wide dynamic range of count rates for the proton flux expected around Mercury, which ranges from 10⁶ to 10¹² cm⁻² s⁻¹ str⁻¹ keV⁻¹, in the solar wind between 0.3 and 0.47 AU from the sun, and in both the hot and cold plasma sheet of Mercury’s magnetosphere. The geometrical factor of MIA is variable, ranging from 1.0 × 10⁻⁷ cm² str keV/keV for large fluxes of solar wind ions to 4.7 × 10⁻⁴ cm² str keV/keV for small fluxes of magnetospheric ions. The entrance grid used for the mechanical sensitivity control of incident ions also work to significantly reduce the contamination of solar UV radiation, whose intensity is about 10 times larger than that around Earth’s orbit.     

基于同步轨道区磁场对相对论电子通量的预报

地球同步轨道区相对论电子通量的变化与该区域的磁场分量P(垂直轨道面指向北)有很好的相关性, 后者的变化相对于前者有1~2天的时间提前量, 这为相对论电子通量的预报提供了可能. 通过对二者相关性物理机制的研究, 结合GOES11 (135oW)卫星数据分析, 确定最佳时间提前量和最优相关系数, 并提出了一个定量的预报模型. 模型的输出参量为24 h之后的当地时子夜(23:31 LT---00:30 LT)、清晨(05:31 LT---06:30 LT)、正午(11:31 LT---12:30 LT)、傍晚(17:31 LT---18:30 LT) 4个特征时间段相对论电子通量1 h平均值, 预报的相对论电子通量有>0.6 MeV和>2 MeV两个谱段, 预报精度0.7左右. 这种预报模式对地球同步轨道卫星的自主安全运行具有较好的应用价值.      

基于支持向量机方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子事件预报模型研究

提出了一种基于支持向量机方法(SVM)的地球同步轨道相对论电子事件预报模型. 模型以平均影响值(MIV)作为指标, 筛选出预报输入参量. 这些参量包括, 前一日的大于2MeV电子日积分通量、太阳风速度、太阳风密度、Dst指数和前二日的AE指数. 模型包含回归和分类两个部分, 可以分别对未来一天的电子日积分通量和相对论电子事件强度的级别做出预报. 对2008年样本进行测试, 在相对论电子通量的预报中, 预报值和实测值之间的线性相关系数为0.85, 预报效率为0.71; 对相对论电子事件级别预报的准确率为82%, 可以较准确区分开事件状态与非事件状态. 结果表明, SVM预报模型对相对论电子事件有较好的预报效果.      

Relative ion Fe,C and O abundances in quiet time particle fluxes in the 23 SC

Using ACE and SOHO data the origin of quiet-time low-energy particle fluxes at 1 AU is studied in the 23rd solar cycle. One of the selection criteria of quiet-time periods is to demand that H/He < 10 provided that periods with noticeable contribution of remnants of gradual events have been excluded from consideration. Our results suggest different origin of 0.03–3 MeV/nucleon particles – different seed populations accelerated and different acceleration processes. During the ascending, maximum and descending phases of solar activity quiet-time ions consist of coronal particles accelerated to suprathermal energies in about a half of the quiet periods, the rest of quiet-time fluxes originates from particle acceleration in processes similar to those in small impulsive solar flares rich in Fe. At solar minimum the bulk solar wind particles serve as seed population.     

地球磁场对太阳风扰动响应的研究

分别对行星际激波、太阳风动压增大事件和减小事件的地球磁场响应进行了比较. 分析结果表明, 同步轨道磁场对太阳风扰动在向阳面产生较强的正响应, 在背阳面 响应较弱且有时会出现负响应, 地磁指数SYM-H对太阳风扰动的响应为正响应. 同时还得出, 向阳侧同步轨道磁场响应幅度d Bz与地磁指数响应幅度d SYM-H、上下游动压均方差均具有较好的相关性. 地磁指数响应幅度与同步轨道磁场响应幅度相关关系在激波和动压增大事件中具有一致性, 动压减小事件出 现明显差异, 这说明激波和动压增大事件在影响地球磁场方面具有某种共性.