Remaining useful life prediction of aircraft lithium-ion batteries based on F-distribution particle filter and kernel smoothing algorithm

As an emergency and auxiliary power source for aircraft, lithium (Li)-ion batteries are important components of aerospace power systems. The Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction of Li-ion batteries is a key technology to ensure the reliable operation of aviation power systems. Particle Filter (PF) is an effective method to predict the RUL of Li-ion batteries because of its uncertainty representation and management ability. However, there are problems that particle weights cannot be updated in the prediction stage and particles degradation. To settle these issues, an innovative technique of F-distribution PF and Kernel Smoothing (FPFKS) algorithm is proposed. In the prediction stage, the weights of the particles are dynamically updated by the F kernel instead of being fixed all the time. Meanwhile, a first-order independent Markov capacity degradation model is established. Moreover, the kernel smoothing algorithm is integrated into PF, so that the variance of the parameters of capacity degradation model keeps invariant. Experiments based on NASA battery data sets show that FPFKS can be excellently applied to RUL prediction of Li-ion batteries.     

基于非线性Wiener过程的航空发动机性能衰减建模与剩余寿命预测

针对航空发动机在性能衰减过程中普遍存在的非线性和三源不确定性问题,提出了一种基于非线性Wiener过程的航空发动机性能衰减建模与剩余寿命（RUL）预测方法。首先,为解决目前大多数剩余寿命预测方法中潜在假设的局限性,即当前时刻估计的漂移系数与上一时刻漂移系数的后验估计完全相等,在状态空间模型的框架下建立了一类新的同时考虑非线性和三源不确定性的性能衰减模型,并在首达时间下推导出剩余寿命的分布。然后,针对新研发航空发动机缺乏历史数据和先验信息的问题,提出了一种基于Kalman滤波和条件期望最大化（ECM）算法的参数估计方法,使得估计的模型参数不依赖于历史数据量。同时能够在获得一个新的性能衰减数据后,实现对模型参数的自适应估计和在线更新,进而实时地更新航空发动机的剩余寿命分布。实验结果表明,本文方法可以有效地提高剩余寿命预测的准确性,能为航空发动机的维修决策提供可靠的依据。     

Remaining useful life prediction based on the Wiener process for an aviation axial piston pump

An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump’s degradation from comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain char-acteristics must be factored into the estimation. The internal wear status of the axial piston pump is characterized by the return oil flow based on fault mechanism analysis of the main frictional pairs in the pump. The performance degradation model is described by the Wiener process to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the pump. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is performed by utilizing the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the initial parameters of the Wiener process while recursive estimation is conducted utilizing the Kalman filter method to estimate the drift coefficient of the Wiener process. The RUL of the pump is then calculated accord-ing to the performance degradation model based on the Wiener process. Experimental results indi-cate that the return oil flow is a suitable characteristic for reflecting the internal wear status of the axial piston pump, and thus the Wiener process-based method may effectively predicate the RUL of the pump.     

A Novel PF-LSSVR-based Framework for Failure Prognosis of Nonlinear Systems with Time-varying Parameters

Particle filtering (PF) is being applied successfully in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian system failure prognosis. However, for failure prediction of many complex systems whose dynamic state evolution models involve time-varying parameters, the traditional PF-based prognosis framework will probably generate serious deviations in results since it implements prediction through iterative calculation using the state models. To address the problem, this paper develops a novel integrated PF-LSSVR framework based on PF and least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) for nonlinear system failure prognosis. This approach employs LSSVR for long-term observation series prediction and applies PF-based dual estimation to collaboratively estimate the values of system states and parameters of the corresponding future time instances. Meantime, the propagation of prediction uncertainty is emphatically taken into account. Therefore, PF-LSSVR avoids over-dependency on system state models in prediction phase. With a two-sided failure definition, the probability distribution of system remaining useful life (RUL) is accessed and the corresponding methods of calculating performance evaluation metrics are put forward. The PF-LSSVR framework is applied to a three-vessel water tank system failure prognosis and it has much higher prediction accuracy and confidence level than traditional PF-based framework.     

基于改进容积卡尔曼滤波的奇异避免姿态估计

 利用矢量进行卫星姿态估计可以归结为非线性滤波问题。为了提高卫星姿态估计的精度,利用龙贝格-马尔塔(LM)迭代算法改进了容积卡尔曼滤波(CKF)。继而,提出改进容积卡尔曼滤波与四元数结合的容积四元数估计器(CQE),有效地避免了卫星大角度机动出现的奇异现象。进一步,给出了一种与影子修正罗德里格参数切换的容积修正罗德里格参数估计器(CME)。仿真对比表明,初始误差较大时容积修正罗德里格参数估计器具有更好的收敛速度和鲁棒性。     

Life cycle testing of a sealed 24-V, 42-Ah nickel-cadmium aircraftbattery

Extensive research has been conducted in the design and manufacture of very long life sealed maintenance free nickel-cadmium aircraft batteries. This study presents data on a 100% depth of discharge (DOD) life test performed on a nominal capacity 42-Ah battery. The purpose of this study is to validate design concepts, determine the life characteristics of the newly designed sealed Ni-Cd batteries, and develop baseline information on failure rates and mechanisms. The data from this experiment can be used to compare depth of discharge versus battery life with similar tests such as the lower DOD experiments performed on spacecraft batteries. This information is important in the ongoing development of long life batteries and in developing failure models for life prediction     

多传感器监测飞机部件非线性退化评估

飞机部件一般采用多传感器进行状态监控，针对退化过程具有非线性特征的民机典型部件剩余寿命（RUL）预测及评估问题，首先建立了部件性能参数的一般非线性Wiener退化过程，推导出基于多传感器监测数据的剩余寿命预测框架和概率密度函数，随后利用状态空间模型进行隐退化状态估计并同时利用最大期望算法（EM）实现参数递推估计，最后形成了飞机部件多传感器监测下的剩余寿命非线性退化评估方法。通过数值仿真案例和民航发动机剩余寿命预测案例，对比线性退化模型和基于单一传感器监测数据的非线性退化模型，验证了所提方法在提高剩余寿命预测精度的有效性，可为飞机及其部件的剩余使用寿命预测和视情维护决策提供技术支撑。     

Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance. Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations. Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived. Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data. Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.     

The Analysis of Voltage-Limited Battery Charging Systems

This paper discusses the techniques and problem areas associated with the charging of sealed secondary batteries for spacecraft, and the operating characteristics of the modified voltage-limited charging system. An approach is described for the characterization of battery parameters. The method of selection of a suitable voltage-temperature limit, with regard to battery parameters and system performance requirements, is described. A 4 ampere-hour battery system is analyzed, and its capability is defined parametrically.