Remaining useful life prognostics for aeroengine based on superstatistics and information fusion

Remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform conditionbased maintenance（CBM） for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades,research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the specific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve,prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algorithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multiple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.     

A GPA diagnostic system foraeroengine applications

In this research,a GPA(Gas Path Analysis) diagnostic system enhanced with GPA Index is described for gas path sensor and component fault diagnosis.A method of measurement correction is used in order that the measurement data obtained at un-standard ambient and operating conditions can be used for diagnostic analysis.The developed diagnostic system has been implemented into a Cranfield University gas turbine performance and diagnostic analysis software PYTHIA for gas turbine performance degradation analysis.The developed method and software have been applied to a model aero gas turbine engine to test the effectiveness of the system.The analysis shows that the developed diagnostic system can diagnose degraded sensor and components effectively using performance deviation measured at un-standard ambient and operational conditions.Theoretically,the idea of the diagnostic approach can be applied to different gas turbine engines.     

Remaining useful life prediction based on the Wiener process for an aviation axial piston pump

An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump’s degradation from comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain char-acteristics must be factored into the estimation. The internal wear status of the axial piston pump is characterized by the return oil flow based on fault mechanism analysis of the main frictional pairs in the pump. The performance degradation model is described by the Wiener process to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the pump. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is performed by utilizing the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the initial parameters of the Wiener process while recursive estimation is conducted utilizing the Kalman filter method to estimate the drift coefficient of the Wiener process. The RUL of the pump is then calculated accord-ing to the performance degradation model based on the Wiener process. Experimental results indi-cate that the return oil flow is a suitable characteristic for reflecting the internal wear status of the axial piston pump, and thus the Wiener process-based method may effectively predicate the RUL of the pump.     

航天器非平稳振动环境TVAR时频分析(英文)

Predicting the time-varying auto-spectral density of a spacecraft in high-altitude orbits requires an accurate model for the non-stationary random vibration signals with densely spaced modal frequency. The traditional time-varying algorithm limits prediction accuracy, thus affecting a number of operational decisions. To solve this problem, a time-varying auto regressive （TVAR） model based on the process neural network （PNN） and the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） is proposed. The time-varying system is tracked on-line by establishing a time-varying parameter model, and then the relevant parameter spectrum is obtained. Firstly, the EMD method is utilized to decompose the signal into several intrinsic mode functions （IMFs）. Then for each IMF, the PNN is established and the time-varying auto-spectral density is obtained. Finally, the time-frequency distribution of the signals can be reconstructed by linear superposition. The simulation and the analytical results from an example demonstrate that this approach possesses simplicity, effectiveness, and feasibility, as well as higher frequency resolution.     

Gain self-scheduled H_∞ control for morphing aircraft in the wing transition process based on an LPV model

This article investigates gain self-scheduled H 1 robust control system design for a tailless fold- ing-wing morphing aircraft in the wing shape varying process. During the wing morphing phase, the aircraft’s dynamic response will be governed by time-varying aerodynamic forces and moments. Nonlinear dynamic equations of the morphing aircraft are linearized by using Jacobian linearization approach, and a linear parameter varying (LPV) model of the morphing aircraft in wing folding is obtained. A multi-loop controller for the morphing aircraft is formulated to guarantee stability for the wing shape transition process. The proposed controller uses a set of inner-loop gains to provide stability using classical techniques, whereas a gain self-scheduled H 1 outer-loop controller is devised to guarantee a specific level of robust stability and performance for the time-varying dynamics. The closed-loop simulations show that speed and altitude vary slightly during the whole wing folding process, and they converge rapidly after the process ends. This proves that the gain self-scheduled H 1 robust controller can guarantee a satisfactory dynamic performance for the morphing aircraft during the whole wing shape transition process. Finally, the flight control system’s robustness for the wing folding process is verified according to uncertainties of the aerodynamic parameters in the nonlinear model.     

Investigation into Pilot Handling Qualities in Teleoperation Rendezvous and Docking with Time Delay

Teleoperation rendezvous and docking can be used as a backup for autonomous rendezvous and docking(RVD) for an unmanned spacecraft when the autonomous system is failure or for guiding the chaser docking with an uncooperative target.The theoretical model for analyzing the handling qualities in teleoperation RVD process is established based on the previous studies conducted by National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA).The predictive factor is introduced to describe the pilot’s predictive ability in the teleoperation tasks with time delay,which interrelates with the skills of a pilot and the predictive assist approach used in the tasks such as the predictive display method.Based on the semi-physical simulation system in our laboratory,900 experiments at two levels of time delay are carried out by 18 volunteers for validating the established model.The experimental results demonstrate the correctness of the theoretical model and indicate that a skilled pilot has a predictive ability of approximately 0.9 in teleoperation RVD tasks.The theoretical analysis shows that the handling qualities are greatly affected by the time delay and the predictive factor,and it is impossible to achieve a teleoperation RVD task for the skilled pilot when the time delay is larger than 9.0 s.     

Transient aeroelastic responses and flutter analysis of a variable-span wing during the morphing process

To investigate the transient aeroelastic responses and flutter characteristics of a variablespan wing during the morphing process,a novel frst-order state-space aeroelastic model is proposed.The time-varying structural model of the morphing wing is established based on the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory with time-dependent boundary conditions.A nondimensionalization method is used to translate the time-dependent boundary conditions to be time-independent.The time-domain aerodynamic forces are calculated by the reduced-order unsteady vortex lattice method.The morphing parameters,i.e.,wing span length and morphing speed,are of particular interest for understanding the fundamental aeroelastic behavior of variable-span wings.A test case is proposed and numerical results indicate that the flutter characteristics are sensitive to both of the two morphing parameters.It could be noticed that the aeroelastic characteristics during the wing extracting process are more serious than those during the extending process at the same morphing speed by transient aeroelastic response analysis.In addition,a faster morphing process can get better aeroelastic performance while the mechanism comlexity will arise.     

Research of Step-down Stress Accelerated Degradation Data Assessment Method of a Certain Type of Missile Tank

The performance degradation rates of the missile tank are generally time-varying functions uneasily evaluated by general classical evaluation methods. This paper develops a segmented nonlinear accelerated degradation model (SNADM) based on the equivalent method of accumulative damage theory, which tackles the problem that product life is difficult to be determined with degradation rate being a function of the variable of time. A segmented expression of the function of population accumulative degradation is derived. And combined with nonlinear function, an accelerated degradation function, i.e., SNADM is obtained. The parameters of the SNADM are identified by numerical iteration, and the statistical function of degradation track is extrapolated. The reliability function is determined through the type of random process of the degradation distribution. Then an evaluation of product storage life is undertaken by combining the statistical function of degradation track, reliability function and threshold. An example of a missile tank undergoes a step-down stress accelerated degradation test (SDSADT), in which the results with the SNADM and the classical method are evaluated and compared. The technology introduced is validated with the resultant coincidence of both evaluated and field storage lives.     

A two-step weighted least-squares method for joint estimation of source and sensor locations: A general framework

It is well known that the Two-step Weighted Least-Squares(TWLS) is a widely used method for source localization and sensor position refinement. For this reason, we propose a unified framework of the TWLS method for joint estimation of multiple disjoint sources and sensor locations in this paper. Unlike some existing works, the presented method is based on more general measurement model, and therefore it can be applied to many different localization scenarios.Besides, it does not have the initialization and local convergence problem. The closed-form expression for the covariance matrix of the proposed TWLS estimator is also derived by exploiting the first-order perturbation analysis. Moreover, the estimation accuracy of the TWLS method is shown analytically to achieve the Cramér-Rao Bound(CRB) before the threshold effect takes place. The theoretical analysis is also performed in a common mathematical framework, rather than aiming at some specific signal metrics. Finally, two numerical experiments are performed to support the theoretical development in this paper.     

A generalized rough set-based information filling technique for failure analysis of thruster experimental data

Interval-valued data and incomplete data are two key problems for failure analysis of thruster experimental data and have been basically solved by the proposed methods in this paper. Firstly, information data acquired from the simulation and evaluation system formed as intervalvalued information system （IIS） is classified by the interval similarity relation. Then, as an improvement of the classical rough set, a new kind of generalized information entropy called ＂H＇-information entropy＂ is suggested for the measurement of uncertainty and the classification ability of IIS. There is an innovative information filling technique using the properties of H＇-information entropy to replace missing data by some smaller estimation intervals. Finally, an improved method of failure analysis synthesized by the above achievements is presented to classify the thruster experimental data, complete the information, and extract the failure rules. The feasibility and advantage of this method is testified by an actual application of failure analysis, whose performance is evaluated by the quantification of E-condition entropy.     

Remaining useful life prediction for engineering systems under dynamic operational conditions: A semi-Markov decision process-based approach

For critical engineering systems such as aircraft and aerospace vehicles, accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL) prediction not only means cost saving, but more importantly, is of great significance in ensuring system reliability and preventing disaster. RUL is affected not only by a system's intrinsic deterioration, but also by the operational conditions under which the system is operating. This paper proposes an RUL prediction approach to estimate the mean RUL of a continuously degrading system under dynamic operational conditions and subjected to condition monitoring at short equi-distant intervals. The dynamic nature of the operational conditions is described by a discrete-time Markov chain, and their influences on the degradation signal are quantified by degradation rates and signal jumps in the degradation model. The uniqueness of our proposed approach is formulating the RUL prediction problem in a semi-Markov decision process framework, by which the system mean RUL can be obtained through the solution to a limited number of equations. To extend the use of our proposed approach in real applications, different failure standards according to different operational conditions are also considered. The application and effectiveness of this approach are illustrated by a turbofan engine dataset and a comparison with existing results for the same dataset.     

多传感器监测飞机部件非线性退化评估

飞机部件一般采用多传感器进行状态监控，针对退化过程具有非线性特征的民机典型部件剩余寿命（RUL）预测及评估问题，首先建立了部件性能参数的一般非线性Wiener退化过程，推导出基于多传感器监测数据的剩余寿命预测框架和概率密度函数，随后利用状态空间模型进行隐退化状态估计并同时利用最大期望算法（EM）实现参数递推估计，最后形成了飞机部件多传感器监测下的剩余寿命非线性退化评估方法。通过数值仿真案例和民航发动机剩余寿命预测案例，对比线性退化模型和基于单一传感器监测数据的非线性退化模型，验证了所提方法在提高剩余寿命预测精度的有效性，可为飞机及其部件的剩余使用寿命预测和视情维护决策提供技术支撑。     

基于非线性Wiener过程的航空发动机性能衰减建模与剩余寿命预测

针对航空发动机在性能衰减过程中普遍存在的非线性和三源不确定性问题,提出了一种基于非线性Wiener过程的航空发动机性能衰减建模与剩余寿命（RUL）预测方法。首先,为解决目前大多数剩余寿命预测方法中潜在假设的局限性,即当前时刻估计的漂移系数与上一时刻漂移系数的后验估计完全相等,在状态空间模型的框架下建立了一类新的同时考虑非线性和三源不确定性的性能衰减模型,并在首达时间下推导出剩余寿命的分布。然后,针对新研发航空发动机缺乏历史数据和先验信息的问题,提出了一种基于Kalman滤波和条件期望最大化（ECM）算法的参数估计方法,使得估计的模型参数不依赖于历史数据量。同时能够在获得一个新的性能衰减数据后,实现对模型参数的自适应估计和在线更新,进而实时地更新航空发动机的剩余寿命分布。实验结果表明,本文方法可以有效地提高剩余寿命预测的准确性,能为航空发动机的维修决策提供可靠的依据。     

Erosion degradation characteristics of a linear electro-hydrostatic actuator under a high-frequency turbulent flow field

The paper proposes a performance degradation analysis model based on dynamic erosion wear for a novel Linear Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator (LEHA). Rather than the traditional statistical methods based on degradation data, the method proposed in this paper firstly analyzes the dominant progressive failure mode of the LEHA based on the working principle and working conditions of the LEHA. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method, combining the turbulent theory and the micro erosion principle, is used to establish an erosion model of the rectification mechanism. The erosion rates for different port openings, under a time-varying flow field, are obtained. The piecewise linearization method is applied to update the concentration of contaminated particles within the LEHA, in order to gain insight into the erosion degradation process at various stages of degradation. The main contribution of the proposed model is the application of the dynamic concentration of contamination particles in erosion analysis of Electro-Hydraulic Servo Valves (EHSVs), throttle valves, spool valves, and needle valves. The effects of system parameters and working conditions on component wear are analyzed by simulations. The results of the proposed model match the expected degradation process.     

A new remaining useful life estimation method for equipment subjected to intervention of imperfect maintenance activities

As the key part of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation has been extensively investigated in recent years. Current RUL estimation studies considering the intervention of imperfect maintenance activities usually assumed that maintenance activities have a single influence on the degradation level or degradation rate, but not on both. Aimed at this problem, this paper proposes a new degradation modeling and RUL estimation method taking the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on both the degradation level and the degradation rate into account. Toward this end, a stochastic degradation model considering imperfect maintenance activities is firstly constructed based on the diffusion process. Then, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the RUL is derived by the convolution operator under the concept of First Hitting Time (FHT). To implement the proposed RUL estimation method, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is utilized to estimate the degradation related parameters based on the Condition Monitoring (CM) data, while the Bayesian method is utilized to estimate the maintenance related parameters based on the maintenance data. Finally, a numerical example and a practical case study are provided to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed method could greatly improve the RUL estimation accuracy for the degrading equipment subjected to imperfect maintenance activities.     

Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance. Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations. Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived. Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data. Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.     

基于随机Wiener过程的航空发动机剩余寿命预测

针对目前剩余寿命(RL)预测方法没有综合考虑发动机个体性能退化的差异性和多阶段性的问题,提出了基于多阶段性能退化模型预测航空发动机剩余寿命的方法。首先,该方法采用多阶段Wiener过程对航空发动机进行退化建模,并假设退化模型参数服从随机分布来描述发动机个体的差异性。然后,根据历史性能退化数据与历史失效时间数据,利用期望最大化算法对模型参数的先验分布进行估计。当获得单台发动机的实时退化数据后,使用Bayesian方法对模型参数进行更新,从而实时更新航空发动机的RL分布,最终实现对单台航空发动机的RL预测。实验结果表明,该方法预测精度较高,能为航空发动机维修计划的制定提供依据。