Remaining useful life estimation for deteriorating systems with time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones

Dynamic time-varying operational conditions pose great challenge to the estimation of system remaining useful life (RUL) for the deteriorating systems. This paper presents a method based on probabilistic and stochastic approaches to estimate system RUL for periodically moni-tored degradation processes with dynamic time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones. The method assumes that the degradation rate is influenced by specific oper-ational condition and moreover, the transition between different operational conditions plays the most important role in affecting the degradation process. These operational conditions are assumed to evolve as a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). The failure thresholds are also determined by specific operational conditions and described as different failure zones. The 2008 PHM Conference Challenge Data is utilized to illustrate our method, which contains mass sensory signals related to the degradation process of a commercial turbofan engine. The RUL estimation method using the sensor measurements of a single sensor was first developed, and then multiple vital sensors were selected through a particular optimization procedure in order to increase the prediction accuracy. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are presented in a comparison with exist-ing methods for the same dataset.     

Remaining useful life prognostics for aeroengine based on superstatistics and information fusion

Remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform conditionbased maintenance（CBM） for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades,research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the specific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve,prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algorithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multiple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.     

Performance optimization of grooved slippers for aero hydraulic pumps

A computational fluid dynamics(CFD) simulation method based on 3-D Navier–Stokes equation and Arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian(ALE) method is presented to analyze the grooved slipper performance of piston pump.The moving domain of grooved slipper is transformed into a fixed reference domain by the ALE method,which makes it convenient to take the effects of rotate speed,body force,temperature,and oil viscosity into account.A geometric model to express the complex structure,which covers the orifice of piston and slipper,vented groove and the oil film,is constructed.Corresponding to different oil film thicknesses calculated in light of hydrostatic equilibrium theory and boundary conditions,a set of simulations is conducted in COMSOL to analyze the pump characteristics and effects of geometry(groove width and radius,orifice size) on these characteristics.Furthermore,the mechanics and hydraulics analyses are employed to validate the CFD model,and there is an excellent agreement between simulation and analytical results.The simulation results show that the sealing land radius,orifice size and groove width all dramatically affect the slipper behavior,and an optimum tradeoff among these factors is conducive to optimizing the pump design.     

Theoretical study of flow ripple for an aviation axial-piston pump with damping holes in the valve plate

Based on the structure of a certain type of aviation axial-piston pump＇s valve plate which adopts a pre-pressurization fluid path （consisting a damping hole, a buffer chamber, and an orifice） to reduce flow ripple, a single-piston model of the aviation axial-piston pump is presented. This sin- gle-piston model comprehensively considers fluid compressibility, orifice restriction effect, fluid resistance in the capillary tube, and the leakage flow. Besides, the instantaneous discharge areas used in the single-piston model have been calculated in detail. Based on the single-piston model, a multi-piston pump model has been established according to the simple hydraulic circuit. The sin- gle- and multi-piston pump models have been realized by the S-function in Matlab/Simulink. The developed multi-piston pump model has been validated by being compared with the numerical result by computational fluid dynamic （CFD）. The effects of the pre-pressurization fluid path on the flow ripple and the instantaneous pressure in the piston chamber have been studied and opti- mized design recommendations for the aviation axial-piston pump have been given out.     

Performance optimization for high speed axial piston pump considering cylinder block tilt

Increasing the rotating speed is considered as an efficient approach to upgrade the power-to-weight ratio in an axial piston pump, but penalized by more leakage and more severe wear resulting from the adverse cylinder block tilt. Previous studies mainly focused on the bearing characteristic of the valve plate/cylinder block pair, but the spline coupling also plays a key role in the undesired cylinder block tilt, which has been little studied. A theoretical model for the rotating assembly is pres...     

Secondary instability of separated shear layers

The process through which a laminar flow undergoes transition to turbulence is of great fundamental and practical interest. Such a process is hugely complex as there are many diverse routes for a laminar flow to become turbulent flow. The transition process is usually initiated by flow instabilities—a primary instability stage followed by a secondary instability stage. This forms a rational framework for the early stage of a transition process and it is crucially important to understand the physics of instabilities leading to turbulence. This article reviews the results of studies on secondary instability of separated shear layers in separation bubbles and summaries the current status of our understanding in this area.     

Effects of splined shaft bending rigidity on cylinder tilt behaviour for high-speed electro-hydrostatic actuator pumps

High-speed axial piston pumps are hydraulic power supplies for electro-hydrostatic actuators(EHAs). The efficiency of a pump directly affects the operating performance of an EHA, and an understanding of the physical phenomena occurring in the cylinder/valve plate interface is essential to investigate energy dissipation. The effects of the splined shaft bending rigidity on the cylinder tilt behaviour in an EHA pump need to be considered, because the deflection and radial expansion of a steel shaft rotating at a high speed cannot be ignored. This paper proposes a new mathematical model to predict the cylinder tilt behaviour by establishing a quantitative relationship between the splined shaft deflection, the cylinder tilt angle, and the tilt azimuth angle. The moments exerted by the splined shaft are included in the equilibrium equation of the cylinder. The effects of solid and hollow splined shafts equipped in an EHA pump prototype are compared at variable speeds of 5000–10,000 r/min. With a weight saving of 29.7%, the hollow shaft is experimentally found to have almost no influence on the volumetric efficiency, but to reduce the mechanical efficiency by 0.6–2.4%. The results agree with the trivial differences of the simulated central gap heights of the interface between the two shafts and the enlargement of the simulated tilt angles by the hollow shaft. The findings could guide designs of the cylinder/valve plate interface and the splined shaft to improve both the efficiency and power density of an EHA pump.     

A novel unified model predicting flow stress and grain size evolutions during hot working of non-uniform as-cast 42CrMo billets

The cast preformed forming process(CPFP) is increasingly considered and applied in the metal forming industries due to its short process, low cost, and environmental friendliness, especially in the aerospace field. However, how to establish a unified model of a non-uniform as-cast billet depicting the flow stress and microstructure evolution behaviors during hot working is the key to microstructure prediction and parameter optimization of the CPFP. In this work, hot compression tests are performed using a non-uniform as-cast 42 CrMo billet at 1123–1423 K and 0.01–1sà1. The effect laws of the non-uniform state of the as-cast billet with different initial grain sizes on the flow stress and microstructure are revealed deeply. Based on experimental results, a unified model of flow stress and grain size evolutions is developed by the internal variable modeling method. Verified results show that the model can well describe the responses of the flow stress and microstructure to deformation conditions and initial grain sizes. To further evaluate its reliability, the unified model is applied to FE simulation of the cast preformed ring rolling process.The predictions of the rolling force and grain size indicate that it could well describe the flow stress and microstructure evolutions during the process.     

Adaptive Gaussian sum squared-root cubature Kalman filter with split-merge scheme for state estimation

The paper deals with state estimation problem of nonlinear non-Gaussian discrete dynamic systems for improvement of accuracy and consistency. An efficient new algorithm called the adaptive Gaussian-sum square-root cubature Kalman filter（AGSSCKF） with a split-merge scheme is proposed. It is developed based on the squared-root extension of newly introduced cubature Kalman filter（SCKF） and is built within a Gaussian-sum framework. Based on the condition that the probability density functions of process noises and initial state are denoted by a Gaussian sum using optimization method, a bank of SCKF are used as the sub-filters to estimate state of system with the corresponding weights respectively, which is adaptively updated. The new algorithm consists of an adaptive splitting and merging procedure according to a proposed split-decision model based on the nonlinearity degree of measurement. The results of two simulation scenarios（one-dimensional state estimation and bearings-only tracking） show that the proposed filter demonstrates comparable performance to the particle filter with significantly reduced computational cost.     

Thrust measurement method verification and analytical studies on a liquid-fueled pulse detonation engine

In order to test the feasibility of a new thrust stand system based on impulse thrust mea- surement method, a liquid-fueled pulse detonation engine （PDE） is designed and built. Thrust per- formance of the engine is obtained by direct thrust measurement with a force transducer and indirect thrust measurement with an eddy current displacement sensor （ECDS）. These two sets of thrust data are compared with each other to verify the accuracy of the thrust performance. Then thrust data measured by the new thrust stand system are compared with the verified thrust data to test its feasibility. The results indicate that thrust data from the force transducer and ECDS system are consistent with each other within the range of measurement error. Though the thrust data from the impulse thrust measurement system is a litter lower than that from the force transducer due to the axial momentum losses of the detonation jet, the impulse thrust measurement method is valid when applied to measure the averaged thrust of PDE. Analytical models of PDE are also discussed in this paper. The analytical thrust performance is higher than the experimental data due to ignoring the losses during the deflagration to detonation transition process. Effect of equivalence ratio on the engine thrust performance is investigated by utilizing the modified analytical model. Thrust reaches maximum at the equivalence ratio of about 1.1.     

An adaptive-order particle filter for remaining useful life prediction of aviation piston pumps

An accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL) not only contributes to an effective application of an aviation piston pump, but also meets the necessity of condition based maintenance (CBM). For the current RUL evaluation methods, a model-based method is inappropriate for the degradation process of an aviation piston pump due to difficulties of modeling, while a data-based method rarely presents high-accuracy prediction in a long period of time. In this work, an adaptive-order particle filter (AOPF) prognostic process is proposed aiming at improving long-term prediction accuracy of RUL by combining both kinds of methods. A dynamic model is initialized by a data-driven or empirical method. When a new observation comes, the prior state distribution is approximated by a current model. The order of the current model is updated adaptively by fusing the information of the observation. Monte Carlo simulation is employed for estimating the posterior probability density function of future states of the pump’s degradation. With updating the order number adaptively, the method presents a higher precision in contrast with those of traditional methods. In a case study, the proposed AOPF method is adopted to forecast the degradation status of an aviation piston pump with experimental return oil flow data, and the analytical results show the effectiveness of the proposed AOPF method.     

多传感器监测飞机部件非线性退化评估

飞机部件一般采用多传感器进行状态监控，针对退化过程具有非线性特征的民机典型部件剩余寿命（RUL）预测及评估问题，首先建立了部件性能参数的一般非线性Wiener退化过程，推导出基于多传感器监测数据的剩余寿命预测框架和概率密度函数，随后利用状态空间模型进行隐退化状态估计并同时利用最大期望算法（EM）实现参数递推估计，最后形成了飞机部件多传感器监测下的剩余寿命非线性退化评估方法。通过数值仿真案例和民航发动机剩余寿命预测案例，对比线性退化模型和基于单一传感器监测数据的非线性退化模型，验证了所提方法在提高剩余寿命预测精度的有效性，可为飞机及其部件的剩余使用寿命预测和视情维护决策提供技术支撑。     

基于非线性Wiener过程的航空发动机性能衰减建模与剩余寿命预测

针对航空发动机在性能衰减过程中普遍存在的非线性和三源不确定性问题,提出了一种基于非线性Wiener过程的航空发动机性能衰减建模与剩余寿命（RUL）预测方法。首先,为解决目前大多数剩余寿命预测方法中潜在假设的局限性,即当前时刻估计的漂移系数与上一时刻漂移系数的后验估计完全相等,在状态空间模型的框架下建立了一类新的同时考虑非线性和三源不确定性的性能衰减模型,并在首达时间下推导出剩余寿命的分布。然后,针对新研发航空发动机缺乏历史数据和先验信息的问题,提出了一种基于Kalman滤波和条件期望最大化（ECM）算法的参数估计方法,使得估计的模型参数不依赖于历史数据量。同时能够在获得一个新的性能衰减数据后,实现对模型参数的自适应估计和在线更新,进而实时地更新航空发动机的剩余寿命分布。实验结果表明,本文方法可以有效地提高剩余寿命预测的准确性,能为航空发动机的维修决策提供可靠的依据。     

Coupled evolution of piston asperity and cylinder bore contour of piston/cylinder pair in axial piston pump

The wear condition of the piston/cylinder pair is crucial to the performance and reliability of the axial piston pump. The hard piston surface, the soft cylinder bore surface, and the interface oil film affects each other during the wear process. Specifically, in the mixed lubrication region, the geometry of the hard piston surface asperity directly affects the wear of soft cylinder bore surface, while the asperities may deform or even degrade when penetrating and sliding against the cylinder bore. So far, there is no suitable method to simulate their coupled evolution. This paper proposed a wear process simulation model considering the real-time interaction between the elasto-plastic deformation of the piston surface asperity, the wear contour of the cylinder bore, and the lubrication condition of the interface. An offline library of the elasto-plastic constitutive behavior of the asperity based on the finite element method (FEM) is established as a part of the simulation model to precisely analyze the deformation and degradation of the asperity and quickly invoke them in the numerical wear process simulation. The simulation and experimental results show that the piston asperity and the cylinder bore contour converge to a steady state after running-in for about 0.5 h. The distribution of the simulated asperity degradation and wear depth is also verified by the experiment.     

Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance. Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations. Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived. Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data. Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.     

A new remaining useful life estimation method for equipment subjected to intervention of imperfect maintenance activities

As the key part of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation has been extensively investigated in recent years. Current RUL estimation studies considering the intervention of imperfect maintenance activities usually assumed that maintenance activities have a single influence on the degradation level or degradation rate, but not on both. Aimed at this problem, this paper proposes a new degradation modeling and RUL estimation method taking the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on both the degradation level and the degradation rate into account. Toward this end, a stochastic degradation model considering imperfect maintenance activities is firstly constructed based on the diffusion process. Then, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the RUL is derived by the convolution operator under the concept of First Hitting Time (FHT). To implement the proposed RUL estimation method, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is utilized to estimate the degradation related parameters based on the Condition Monitoring (CM) data, while the Bayesian method is utilized to estimate the maintenance related parameters based on the maintenance data. Finally, a numerical example and a practical case study are provided to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed method could greatly improve the RUL estimation accuracy for the degrading equipment subjected to imperfect maintenance activities.     

基于RF-SVR的燃油计量装置性能衰退检测和剩余寿命估计方法

为了实现航空发动机燃油系统的安全状态监测和健康管理,开展了燃油系统性能衰退检测和剩余使用寿命估计方面的研究。以燃油系统燃油计量装置为例,分析了其主要的性能衰退模式,设计了基于电流-速度数据的健康指标(HIs)选取方案,并考虑环境及模型参数不确定性,进行模型不确定性仿真,基于健康数据与性能衰退数据间的马氏距离对部件性能衰退进行检测。提出了基于随机森林-支持向量回归(RF-SVR)的剩余使用寿命(RUL)估计方法,利用通过RF特征选择优化的SVR模型实现部件RUL估计。最后基于某型民用涡扇发动机机械液压模型仿真数据对该方法进行了验证,结果表明:该方法的性能衰退检测虚警率及漏报率低于2%,RUL估计误差低于3%,可为航空发动机燃油系统的预测性维护提供参考。      

基于随机Wiener过程的航空发动机剩余寿命预测

针对目前剩余寿命(RL)预测方法没有综合考虑发动机个体性能退化的差异性和多阶段性的问题,提出了基于多阶段性能退化模型预测航空发动机剩余寿命的方法。首先,该方法采用多阶段Wiener过程对航空发动机进行退化建模,并假设退化模型参数服从随机分布来描述发动机个体的差异性。然后,根据历史性能退化数据与历史失效时间数据,利用期望最大化算法对模型参数的先验分布进行估计。当获得单台发动机的实时退化数据后,使用Bayesian方法对模型参数进行更新,从而实时更新航空发动机的RL分布,最终实现对单台航空发动机的RL预测。实验结果表明,该方法预测精度较高,能为航空发动机维修计划的制定提供依据。     

轴向柱塞泵滑靴副的热结构耦合特性

为了改善轴向柱塞泵滑靴副的耐磨损性能,建立了滑靴与斜盘摩擦副的瞬态热结构耦合模型,分析压力冲击条件下滑靴的表面温度、应力以及变形的变化规律.研究结果表明:某型轴向柱塞泵中滑靴温度随柱塞腔压力呈周期性变化,滑靴温度范围为45.5~49.8℃,且滑靴的最高温度出现在泵的吸排油过渡区.当滑靴处于泵的排油区时,滑靴的最大轴向应力为250MPa,集中在滑靴油腔与密封带之间的边缘区域.滑靴的轴向应力分层显著,引起滑靴的变形分化,其变形量为12.5~15μm,出现在滑靴的边缘.由于滑靴的输入热流密度增强磨粒的剪切力,加剧滑靴表面的微切削和挤压变形,导致滑靴表面出现条状剥落和凹坑磨损,呈现出黏着和磨粒磨损特征.      

轴向柱塞泵多学科融合建模与集成优化

为了实现机液耦合条件下轴向柱塞泵的精确建模和优化设计，提出了轴向柱塞泵多学科融合建模与集成优化方法。以国产I3V2-10S型轴向柱塞泵为对象，分别建立了ADAMS机械系统模型和AMESIM液压系统模型，通过ADAMS和AMESIM之间的接口模块设计实现了柱塞泵机液耦合建模和联合仿真，并利用iSIGHT软件集成了该机液耦合模型，以该柱塞泵出口体积流量脉动率最小为目标，对配流副中吸排油节流口最大开口等效直径、吸排油闭死角、柱塞包角、吸排油预开口量等参数进行了优化设计。结果表明:在负载工况分别为10、14、18、22、26、30MPa时，优化后的泵出口流量脉动率比优化前分别降低了14.59%、18.57%、21.50%、23.44%、24.03%、25.49%，最后通过实验验证了仿真和集成优化数据的正确性。