Non-expert interpretations of hurricane forecast uncertainty visualizations

Uncertainty represented in visualizations is often ignored or misunderstood by the non-expert user. The National Hurricane Center displays hurricane forecasts using a track forecast cone, depicting the expected track of the storm and the uncertainty in the forecast. Our goal was to test whether different graphical displays of a hurricane forecast containing uncertainty would influence a decision about storm characteristics. Participants viewed one of five different visualization types. Three varied the currently used forecast cone, one presented a track with no uncertainty, and one presented an ensemble of multiple possible hurricane tracks. Results show that individuals make different decisions using uncertainty visualizations with different visual properties, demonstrating that basic visual properties must be considered in visualization design and communication.     

A Neuro-Cognitive Theory of Deductive Relational Reasoning with Mental Models and Visual Images

Abstract

Many neuro-imaging studies have provided evidence that the parietal cortex plays a key role in reasoning based on mental models, which are supposed to be of abstract spatial nature. However, these studies have also shown concurrent activation in vision-related cortical areas which have often been interpreted as evidence for the role of visual mental imagery in reasoning. The aim of the paper is to resolve the inconsistencies in the previous literature on reasoning and imagery and to develop a neurally and cognitively plausible theory of human relational reasoning. The main assumption is that visual brain areas are only involved if the problem information is easy to visualize and when this information must be processed and maintained in visual working memory. A regular reasoning process, however, does not involve visual images but more abstract spatial representations—spatial mental models—held in parietal cortices. Only these spatial representations are crucial for the genuine reasoning processes.     

The Psychological Validity of Qualitative Spatial Reasoning in One Dimension

One of the central questions of spatial reasoning research is whether the underlying processes are inherently visual, spatial, or logical. We applied the dual task interference paradigm to spatial reasoning problems in one dimension, using Allen's interval calculus, in order to make progress towards resolving this argument. Our results indicate that spatial reasoning with interval relations is largely based on the construction and inspection of qualitative spatial representations, or mental models, while no evidence for logical proofs of derivations or the involvement of visual representations and processes was found.     

Learning Routes from Visualizations for Indoor Wayfinding: Presentation Modes and Individual Differences

Abstract

Participants (N = 78) studied a visualization of a route through a complex building and walked that route in the real building without further assistance. Erroneous turns on the route as well as indicators of uncertainty such as hesitations were assessed. Three types of route visualizations were compared: (1) an allocentric, map-based visualization with the route indicated in floor maps, (2) an ordered sequence of pictures of decision points shown from the egocentric perspective, and (3) an animation showing a virtual walk of the route from the egocentric perspective. In addition to the experimental variation, gender differences, differences in visual-spatial abilities and differences in self-reported wayfinding strategies were considered as predictor variables. Wayfinding performance did not differ between allocentric (map) and egocentric (decision point pictures and animation) visualizations. However, wayfinding performance was better with animated than with static egocentric visualizations. Individual differences in the ability to encode visual-spatial information from the visualization played a critical role for route learning. Self-reported sense of direction related to egocentric wayfinding strategies also predicted wayfinding performance. Gender differences were attributable to differences in visual-spatial abilities and egocentric wayfinding strategies. Interactions between visualizations and individual differences were not found. It is concluded that animations of virtual walks are suitable to convey route information in complex buildings. Successful acquisition of route knowledge from maps is possible but might depend on the comprehensibility of the structure of the building.     

Visually supported reasoning under uncertain conditions: Effects of domain expertise on air traffic risk assessment

This article investigates the impact that domain expertise has on risk assessment when analyzing uncertain geographical and sensor data. The differences between novice and expert air traffic operators were examined taking into account the performance of identifying and classifying threatening targets, the time needed to carry out such classifications, and the confidence reported for each decision. The results show that confidence was significantly higher for the expert group. This was supported by the after-test questionnaire because none of the novice participants reported being more confident with the visualizations of uncertainty provided. No significant differences regarding time and performance were found between the groups, even if experts needed, on average, more time to make a decision. Based on the collected logs, the experienced participants more often accessed the detailed information for each object presented by the tool tip. Both the time taken and the data accessed might indicate that experts had better situation awareness. Finally, the experts reported higher workload values related to performance.     

基于贝叶斯网络分析空间态势

战场态势分析是指挥决策的基础,作为一种知识推理和进行概率推理的框架,贝叶斯网络在具有内在不确定性的决策问题中得到了广泛的应用。因果推理是态势评估中的一个重要环节,用叶斯网可以找出态势假设和事件之间的潜在关系,切合了态势评估所需完成的功能。     

Cost–benefit analysis of space exploration: Some ethical considerations

Humanity faces many important decisions about space exploration. A major but controversial decision-making paradigm is cost–benefit analysis (CBA). This paper discusses some ethical considerations in CBA that are important to decision making about space exploration, including how we define costs and benefits; space exploration's non-market value; the standing of future humans and of extraterrestrials; and the role of discounting in evaluating long-term space exploration projects.     

A permanent lunar base : Alternatives and choices

It appears virtually certain that humans will return to the lunar surface to stay and exploit the lunar resources. The only remaining question is who, when and how humankind will go there to establish a permanent lunar base. This article describes the decision-making process of determining the parameters of a lunar base. It offers modelling options as a frame of reference for planning the lunar base and its logistic support, and gives the reasons why a detailed analysis of the options and forward planning should have a high priority now.     

面向飞行器总体设计的UMDO技术综述

针对当前飞行器设计领域对总体设计过程中不确定性因素的精细化管理需求，对不确定性多学科设计优化（Uncertainty-based Multidisciplinary Design Optimization，UMDO）的研究现状和应用模式进行了综述和展望。首先综述UMDO的国内外发展现状，讨论开展UMDO研究和应用的必要性和紧迫性；从不确定性源建模、不确定性灵敏度分析、多学科不确定性分析、鲁棒性多学科优化设计4个方面梳理UMDO技术的发展体系，分析UMDO工程应用的研究现状，围绕飞行器总体设计过程提出适应各阶段设计需求的现代飞行器UMDO应用模式；最后，针对飞行器总体精细化设计能力的提升需求，分析了目前UMDO在工程应用过程中存在的问题，并探讨了UMDO的未来发展设想。     

Expert Algorithmic and Imagistic Problem Solving Strategies in Advanced Chemistry

Abstract

Visualization and imagistic reasoning appear central to expert practice in science; however, expert use of these strategies on authentic tasks has not been examined in detail. This study documents how science experts use both algorithms and imagistic reasoning to solve problems. Using protocol analysis, we report expert chemists' preferential use of algorithms for solving spatial problems and imagistic reasoning for deducing spatial transformations. We observed experts employ algorithms to solve the majority of spatial tasks while reserving imagistic strategies to solve a class of tasks that required translating between representations. Strategy used varied widely among experts and tasks.     

Modeling visuospatial reasoning

I apply my proposed modification of Soar/Spatial/Visual System and Kosslyn’s (1983) computational operations on images to problems within a 2 × 2 taxonomy that classifies research according to whether the coding involves static or dynamic relations within an object or between objects (Newcombe & Shipley, 2015). I then repeat this analysis for problems that are included in mathematics and science curricula. Because many of these problems involve reasoning from diagrams Hegarty’s (2011) framework for reasoning from visual-spatial displays provides additional support for organizing this topic. Two more relevant frameworks specify reasoning at different levels of abstraction (Reed, 2016) and with different combinations of actions and objects (Reed, 2018). The article concludes with suggestions for future directions.     

Analyzing Qualitative Spatio-Temporal Calculi using Algebraic Geometry

Abstract

Qualitative spatial reasoning is based on calculi which comprise relations and operation tables that encode operations like relation composition. Designing a calculus involves determining these tables and analyzing reasoning properties—a demanding task that is susceptible to errors if performed manually. This paper is concerned with automating computation of operation tables and analysis of qualitative calculi over real-valued domains like the plane ². We present an approach to specify qualitative relations using polynomial equations that allows methods from algebraic geometry to be applied. This paper shows how reasoning with qualitative relations can be posed algebraically and demonstrates algebraic reasoning using Gröbner base analysis. We evaluate this approach and describe our implementation, which is freely available as part of the spatial reasoning toolbox SparQ.     

基于物理规划的固体火箭发动机不确定性优化设计

在基于建模与仿真的固体火箭发动机设计过程中客观存在许多不确定性,决策不确定性定义为设计与优化问题描述和决策过程中存在的模糊性。传统优化设计模型将优化设计问题作为确定性问题求解,可能会漏掉真正的工程实际可接受的最优结果。采用物理规划方法建立优化设计模型,可得到综合满足多个设计准则的Pareto解。以固体火箭发动机总体方案优化设计为例,证明了物理规划方法作为固体火箭发动机设计决策不确定性建模方法的有效性。     

多传感器目标识别的优化融合

对于工作在复杂环境下的多传感器目标识别系统,确保其稳健性和准确性的关键是有效处理被融合信息的不确定性。根据影响信息不确定性的因素,文章把传感器本地识别信息的可信度分为了统计可信度和环境可信度;采用最小二乘法和神经网络实现统计可信度的估计,自适应神经模糊推理实现环境可信度估计;并利用这两种可信度实现以一致理论为基础的多传感器目标识别的优化融合。经实验仿真证明,该融合方案是有效的。     

固体火箭发动机质量评判系统研究开发中的非精确推理

介绍了固体火箭发动机质量评判的特点，以带有两种典型伤情缺陷的固体火箭发动机为例，对主观Bayes非精确推理方法在固体火箭发动机质量评判中的应用进行了分析研究，给出了非精确推理框图，并简要介绍了研究推理规划中的充分性度量LS、必要性度量LN和前提的可信度C（E，S），以及计算多种伤情缺陷作用下发动机禁用的后验概率的方法。     

Developing the global exploration roadmap: An example using the humans to the lunar surface theme

The development of the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) by 12 space agencies participating in the International Space Exploration Coordination Group broadly outlines a pathway to send humans beyond low Earth orbit for the first time since Apollo. Three themes have emerged: Exploration of a Near-Earth Asteroid, Extended Duration Crew Missions, and Humans to the Lunar Surface. The lack of detail within each of these themes could mean that realizing the goals of the GER would be significantly delayed. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that many of the details needed to fully define and evaluate these themes in terms of scientific rationale, economic viability, and technical feasibility already exist and need to be mapped to the GER. Here, we use the Humans to the Lunar Surface theme as an example to illustrate how this process could work. By mapping documents from a variety of international stakeholders, this process can be used to cement buy-in from the current partners and attract new ones to this effort.     

Space analogue studies in Antarctica

Medical research has been carried out on the Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions (ANARE) for 50 years. As an extension of this program collaborative Australian/United States research on immunology, microbiology, psychology and remote medicine has produced important data and insight on how humans adapt to the stress of extreme isolation, confinement and the harsh environment of Antarctica. An outstanding analogue for the isolation and confinement of space missions (especially planetary outposts), ANARE has been used as an international research platform by Australia and the United States since 1993. Collaborative research has demonstrated a lowered responsiveness of the immune system under the isolation and confinement of Antarctic winter-over; a reduction of almost 50% in T cell proliferation to mltogen phytohaemogglutinin, as well as changes in latent herpesvirus states and the expansion of the polyclonal latent Epstein-Barr virus infected B cell populations. Although no clinically significant disease has been found to result from these immune changes, research is currently assessing the effects of psychological factors on the immune system. This and associated research performed to date and its relevance to both organisations is discussed, and comment made on possible extensions to the program in both medical and other fields.     

Qualitative Spatial Reasoning in Interpreting Text and Narrative

Abstract

Simple natural language texts and narratives often raise problems in commonsense spatial knowledge and reasoning of surprising logical complexity and geometric richness. In this article, I consider a dozen short texts—five taken from literature, the remainder contrived as illustrations—and discuss the spatial reasoning involved in understanding them. I conclude by summarizing their common features, and by tentatively drawing some morals for research in this area.     

飞行器多学科不确定性设计理论概述

设计是充分利用设计知识做出智能决策得到最优解的过程，在基于建模与仿真的飞行器设计过程中，由于客观存在的不确定性，产生基于模型预估结果与真实结果的不一致。飞行器传统设计采用基于串行的确定性设计方法，无法得到性能、可支付性、可靠性、鲁棒性等综合平衡的设计。本文旨在建立飞行器多学科不确定性设计理论，介绍解决飞行器多学科不确定性设计相关计算、组织和不确定性科学处理复杂性问题的方法和基本思想。