可靠性增长幂律模型MTBF区间估计系数表的研究

对国内外的可靠性增长标准与手册的区间估计系数表进行了分析,指出原始计算的数表只有两种．但转载中问题不少．或由基于形状参数极大似然估计（MLE）的表换算为基于形状参数无偏估计的表时精度下降。为满足工程应用需要,本文用保证8位有效数字的计算方法编制了新表。同时．还对时间终止的情况。给出了Bayes与随机化最优区间估计系数表。     

可靠性增长幂律模型MTBF区间估计系数表的研究（续）

对国内外的可靠性增长标准与手册的区间估计系数表进行了分析．指出原始计算的数表只有两种，但转载中问题不少，或由基于形状参数极大似然估计（MLE）的表换算为基于形状参数无偏估计的表时精度下降。为满足工程应用需要，本文用保证8位有效数字的计算方法编制了新表。同时，还对时间终止的情况，给出了Bayes与随机化最优区间估计系数表。     

对运动干扰源的时差测量精度分析

讨论了用窄带接收机测量宽带干扰信号到达时差时,由干扰源或接收机的运动导致的相对速度对时差测量精度的影响,给出了最大似然估计和直接相关估计的估计精度。结果表明,直接相关估计是有偏估计,但其方差与最大似然估计相同。     

基于屏蔽数据的航空电源系统可靠性分析

当航空电源系统具有屏蔽寿命数据时,研究逆Weibull型部件可靠性的估计问题.利用Bayes方法和极大似然方法,给出了逆Weibull型部件可靠性的Bayes估计和极大似然估计.利用随机模拟方法对两种估计的结果进行了比较.     

雷达高度计采用准最大似然估计算法的波高精度分析

在雷达波高测量中，准最大似然估计器总存在误差，这就影响了雷达高度计的精度。本文根据雷达高度计中的准最大似然估计器的理论，对联合参量（高度、海面波高、信噪比）中的波高误差进行了推导，得知波高精度和脉冲累积量、信嗓比、波高有密切关系。文中简介了最大似然估计的基本原理及性质。同时采用准最大似然估计算法计算波高误差。结论表明，要提高波高的测量精度，需提高信噪比，增加累积量。但这会受一些条件限制．需综合考虑。     

屏蔽数据下航天器电源系统可靠性的统计分析

基于屏蔽数据和定数截尾情形,利用概率元方法建立了样本的似然函数,推导出航天器电源系统半导体器件参数、可靠性及失效率的极大似然估计和Bayes估计,并讨论了相应的最小后验风险,最后利用Monte-Carlo方法验证了本文估计方法的正确性和可行性。     

基于预警卫星观测的弹道导弹运动状态估计算法

针对预警卫星仅有角度测量信息,目标运动可观测性很弱,而导致最大似然弹道估计条件病态严重的问题,提出基于提供目标状态估计和联合误差协方差的Levenberg-Marquardt算法的修正最大似然估计(MML)算法.利用预警卫星初始观测时刻的目标高度和速度等部分先验信息作为伪测量量,推导出导弹运动状态参数估计的修正最大似然算法.最后,对算法进行了Monte-Carlo仿真研究,仿真结果表明估计误差同理论误差边界相当,验证了估计算法的一致性和有效性.     

多径信号频偏估计算法研究

多径信号的频偏估计是无线通信系统中的一个难题。在最大似然估计算法的基础上,提出一种兼顾实时性与有效性的频偏估计算法,给出了该频偏估计算法的克拉美罗界。仿真表明,所提算法同经典的周期图法相比,运算复杂度大大降低,且在很宽频偏范围内,估计精度接近于最大似然估计。     

截尾寿命试验下双参数指数分布 可靠性指标的Bayes估计与经验Bayes估计

设产品寿命为双参数指数分布,本文对于在无替换定数定时截尾试验下所获得的顺序样本x_(1)≤x_(2)≤…≤x_(r),给出了可靠性指标的Bayes估计与经验Bayes估计。运用随机模拟方法,将它们与经典的极大似然估计进行了比较,结果表明,它们的精度要比极大似然估计好些。     

基于预警卫星观测的弹道导弹运动状态估计算法

针对预警卫星仅有角度测量信息，目标运动可观测性很弱，而导致最大似然弹道估计条件病态严重的问题，提出基于提供目标状态估计和联合误差协方差的Levenbebg-Marquardt算法的修正最大似然估计（MML）算法。利用预警卫星初始观测时刻的目标高度和速度等部分先验信息作为伪测量量，推导出导弹运动状态参数估计的修正最大似然算法。最后，对算法进行了Monte—Carlo仿真研究，仿真结果表明估计误差同理论误差边界相当，验证了估计算法的一致性和有效性．     

基于及时修正策略的成败型产品可靠性增长分析

针对及时修正试验策略，根据Fries可靠性增长模型和Duane学习曲线特性，基于不同的失败类型对模型进行了扩展。用进化算法对似然函数求极值，获得了参数极大似然估计，以及最终研制阶段可靠性点估计。对某固体火箭发动机可靠性增长实例的分析结果表明，与经典评估方法相比，本文模型更具优越性。     

基于GA的可靠性寿命分布参数的极大似然优化估计

基于极大似然估计法的基本原理和优化理论,建立了可靠性寿命分布参数的极大似然优化估计模型,并采用遗传算法(GA)进行求解,分析了GA在模型求解中的编码、选择策略、交叉和变异等关键步骤,以及约束条件的处理。给出了用该法估计单威布尔分布和混合威布尔分布参数的一实例。结果表明,工程上此法可有效估计可靠性寿命分布的参数,所获结果更为精确合理。     

Finding a second sample of life on earth

If life emerges readily under Earth-like conditions, the possibility arises of multiple terrestrial genesis events. We seek to quantify the probability of this scenario using estimates of the Archean bombardment rate and the fact that life established itself fairly rapidly on Earth once conditions became favorable. We find a significant likelihood that at least one more sample of life, referred to here as alien life, may have emerged on Earth, and could have coexisted with known life. Indeed, it is difficult to rule out the possibility of extant alien life. We offer some suggestions for how an alternative sample of life might be detected.     

复包络数字滤波器的最大似然辨识建模

针对无线通讯系统和雷达系统的数字仿真中大量存在的复包络数字滤波器建模问题 ,提出了一种基于变量误差模型 (Errors- in- Variables Model,简记为 EV模型 )的频域最大似然参数估计方法。首先将实验测量值的中心频率移到零频 ,得到复包络滤波器的频率响应 ,然后使用最小二乘法计算复包络滤波器系数的初始估计值 ,最后使用数值迭代法对最大似然估计的代价函数进行优化 ,得到复包络滤波器系数的最佳估计。实验结果以及理论分析表明 ,与现有的复包络数字滤波器转换方法相比 ,最大似然法建模的过程更加直接 ,结果更加精确     

低轨道CDMA卫星下行链路多径信道估计

为改善低轨道（LEO）卫星下行链路中多径时延扩展小于1个码片周期时最大似然信道估计方法因有色噪声影响导致的低信噪比时急速下降的性能。提出用卡尔曼滤波法对最大似然估计输出的估值进行滤波处理。仿真结果表明：当LEO卫星码分多址（CDMA）下行链路存在速率300 b/s的连续导频信号时,用最大似然估计级联卡尔曼滤波器的多径信道估计法能在载噪比40 dB的信噪比条件下具较好的性能。     

三角样条小波的构造及其在故障检测中的应用

本文首先给出了三角样条函数极其性质,然后在此基础上给出了一种构造三角样条小波的新方法。该方法简单易行,而且构造出的小波具有许多良好的性质,这些对信号处理是非常重要的。最后,将构造出的小波应用于故障信号的检测,与一些常用的小波相比,不但消除了边界效应,而且使故障信号在变换域内能量更集中,从而提高了故障检测的准确性。     

Avoiding collisions: the Spaceguard Foundation

The Earth has a long and violent history of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies such as asteroids and comet nuclei. Several of these impacts have been large enough to produce major environmental changes, causing mass extinctions and severe alterations to weather patterns and geography. There is no reason to suppose that the likelihood of such collisions will be any less in the future and the spread of human settlement, civilisation, and particularly urbanisation, makes it much more likely that a future impact, even relatively small, could result in the massive loss of human life and property. Despite the fact that the technology exists to predict and to some extent prevent such events, there is currently no co-ordinated international response to this threat. This article presents a realistic assessment of the threat to Earth from NEOs, describes the (underfunded) efforts so far made to counter it and makes a plea for further action to produce a fully functioning Spaceguard Foundation.     

无人机集群组网高精度测距技术研究

针对无人机组网系统机间测距精度受限于时域采样周期时延估计的问题，本文提出一种联合正交频分复用（OFDM）前导序列和导频序列进行高精度测距估计的方法，利用最大似然估计和双向测距法将参与计算的序列测距估计结果按比例进行加权平均。同时，仿真分析了联合测距估计方法性能。结果表明：联合估计方法的前导与导频序列差分自相关间隔长度取典型值时测距精度能达到0.1 m以下，可在较低信噪比下实现厘米级测距精度，提升了集群组网测距的稳定性。     

Determination of the Quasistatic Component of Microaccelerations at the MirStation

We describe the determination of the quasistatic component of microaccelerations, as it was done during the space experiments with the instruments DACON and ALICE-2. This component was calculated using the telemetric information related to the motion of the station with respect to its center of mass. The information consists of the values of the station angular velocity vector and the quaternion which specifies its orientation, determined at discrete instants of time. The quaternion is determined with a step of about 1 min, the angular velocity with a step of about 10 s. The information is used in the following manner. At first, the quaternion components corresponding to some time interval are smoothed by splines. Then, employing the obtained splines and kinematic equations, the angular velocity and acceleration of the station are calculated on this interval. Finally, the microacceleration is calculated as a function of time at the point of the location of the instrument. The data of measurements of the angular velocity are used for the purpose of control. As a rule, the available telemetric information allows one to find the quasi-static component for the entire time interval of carrying out the experiment. Examples of determination of this component for some experiments are presented. A comparison with the results of calculating the microacceleration quasistatic component by other methods is made.     

The cognitive adequacy of Allen's interval calculus for qualitative spatial representation and reasoning

Qualitative spatial reasoning (QSR) is often claimed to be cognitively more plausible than conventional numerical approaches to spatial reasoning, because it copes with the indeterminacy of spatial data and allows inferences based on incomplete spatial knowledge. The paper reports experimental results concerning the cognitive adequacy of an important approach used in QSR, namely the spatial interpretation of the interval calculus introduced by Allen (1983). Knauff, Rauh and Schlieder (1995) distinguished between the conceptual and inferential cognitive adequacy of Allen's interval calculus. The former refers to the thirteen base relations as a representational system and the latter to the compositions of these relations as a tool for reasoning. The results of two memory experiments on conceptual adequacy show that people use ordinal information similar to the interval relations when representing and remembering spatial arrangements. Furthermore, symmetry transformations on the interval relations were found to be responsible for most of the errors, whereas conceptualneighborhood theory did not appear to correspond to cognitively relevant concepts. Inferential adequacy was investigated by two reasoning experiments and the results show that in inference tasks where the number of possible interval relations for the composition is more than one, subjects ignore numerous possibilities and interindividually prefer the same relations. Reorientations and transpositions operating on the relations seem to be important for reasoning performance as well, whereas conceptual neighborhood did not appear to affect the difficulty of reasoning tasks based on the interval relations.