The meaning of Japan's space commercialization efforts

The gradual commercial utilization and application of the results of government-led space development programmes is a natural development. In Japan private sector involvement goes further than this because the government budget for space development is very limited. To remain competitive in an increasingly international market Japan now needs to develop a partnership between government and private enterprise to construct a system and structure that will directly benefit the public, otherwise the necessary support for space development will not be attained.     

The contest for leadership in East Asia: Japanese and Chinese approaches to outer space

Japan and China, as two advanced spacefaring nations in Asia-Pacific region, are often referred to as rivals in space. China's successful manned space launch program in 2003 and ASAT test in 2007 were considered as turning points which potentially introduces a “space race in Asia”. This article argues that there are three defining arenas in a space race: competition for prestige or soft power, competition over military capability or hard power, and competition of international services or public goods. It analyzes the objectives, norms and logics of space policy in Japan and China, and argues that these two countries have quite different thinking over what to do in space, explaining that they are playing different games in the first two arenas. However, Japan and China are competing for leadership and influence over the region. APRSAF and APSCO, two similar regional space organizations, are the vehicles for this competition. It concludes that there is a space race only in the third arena as a competition for leadership in Asia.     

The future of human spaceflight.

After the Apollo Moon program, the international space station represents a further milestone of humankind in space, International follow-on programs like a manned return to the Moon and a first manned Mars Mission can be considered as the next logical step. More and more attention is also paid to the topic of future space tourism in Earth orbit, which is currently under investigation in the USA, Japan and Europe due to its multibillion dollar market potential and high acceptance in society. The wide variety of experience, gained within the space station program, should be used in order to achieve time and cost savings for future manned programs. Different strategies and roadmaps are investigated for space tourism and human missions to the Moon and Mars, based on a comprehensive systems analysis approach. By using DLR's software tool FAST (Fast Assessment of Space Technologies), different scenarios will be defined, optimised and finally evaluated with respect to mission architecture, required technologies, total costs and program duration. This includes trajectory analysis, spacecraft design on subsystem level, operations and life cycle cost analysis. For space tourism, an expected evolutionary roadmap will be described which is initiated by short suborbital tourism and ends with visionary designs like the Space Hotel Berlin and the Space Hotel Europe concept. Furthermore the potential space tourism market, its economic meaning as well as the expected range of the costs of a space ticket (e.g. $50,000 for a suborbital flight) will be analysed and quantified. For human missions to the Moon and Mars, an international 20 year program for the first decades of the next millennium is proposed, which requires about $2.5 Billion per year for a manned return to the Moon program and about $2.6 Billion per year for the first 3 manned Mars missions. This is about the annual budget, which is currently spend by the USA only for the operations of its Space Shuttle fleet which generally proofs the affordability of such ambitious programs after the build-up of the International Space Station, when corresponding budget might become again available.     

European space research in support of international partnership

The envisaged future space research programmes, whether in the field of space exploration or Earth observation are becoming more and more technically complicated and so costly that a single nation can hardly afford to realize them. Major non-European space-faring nations, China and India will progressively play an important role besides US, Russia and Japan. The Space Advisory Group of the European Commission recommended that the European Commission supports within Horizon 2020 a comprehensive Robotic Mars-Exploration Programme under European leadership that should become an essential element of a coordinated international space research programme. The International Space Station (ISS) experience shows that cooperative space programmes build links between industries and laboratories from around the world, which then further develop in non-space related activities, with positive impact on the economy and scientific research. Strategies need to be developed to mitigate the gradual increasing risks incurred by climate change. In order to lower their entry barrier to engage in space emerging and developing space nations need to be included in cooperative space programmes. We present the recommendations of the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission concerning Europe's participation to global space endeavours.     

Administrative reform of Japanese Space Policy Structures in 2012

In Japan, there are several government ministries and agencies with important roles in the development and use of space. In 2012, Japan restructured its administrative organs related to the development and use of space through legal amendments to the original acts that established these organs. Although this was an important administrative reform that took four years of planning and discussion to accomplish, this restructuring has not been communicated well outside of Japan. This study provides the first comprehensive overview of the recent legal changes in Japanese space policy. In contrast to some reports, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) still has primary responsibility for the finances and personnel of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). This continues to be true even after the Cabinet Office begins its new role as the focal point for formulating Japanese space policy. It remains to be seen how the policy direction of the Cabinet Office will interact with the operational, financial, and personnel responsibilities of MEXT. I argue that knowledge of the roles of MEXT and the Cabinet Office in space policy, and the tension between the two organizations, is key to understanding Japan's future space policy decision-making process. By tracing the history of Japanese space policy since 2001, I also suggest that if bureaucrats had thought more deeply before making major reforms to space policy and its administration, there would have been less confusion over the development of national space policy this past decade. This paper concludes by identifying some key elements to monitor in the coming years of Japan's space policy.     

A Ticket pricing strategy for an oligopolistic space tourism market

It is important for any new launch system to develop a successful pricing strategy and to optimize launch system parameters to receive a high economic profit. A question arises, what will happen when an existing suborbital flight market (the first likely to be established in space) is interfered with by a new established orbital flight market for space tourism. There is a risk that the suborbital space tourism market could be almost instantly displaced when a product capable of reaching orbit was introduced. This is best discussed using the following three cases whose results are presented in this paper. Case A presents a ticket pricing strategy for a suborbital and orbital vehicle if the two vehicles do not compete in the same market. Case B shows the necessary ticket pricing strategy for a suborbital vehicle if there is competition from an orbital flight operator. However, the suborbital vehicle would not be able to keep up with a drop in ticket prices due to its obsolete characteristics. Thus, the suborbital vehicle would be forced to stop operation in the year when flight costs became higher than flight receipts as shown in case C.     

Europe's major challenge for the 21st century: Access to space

Like the other great space powers of the 21st century, Europe has its own means of accessing space: Ariane, which has guaranteed its independence in the launching of civil and military satellites for almost 30 years and has won a significant part of the highly competitive commercial market. This market provides the Ariane system with the production volume indispensable for its reliability, which also benefits institutional launches. Europe's commercial market share will be even larger if the launch system is flexible and adaptable to the diversity of demand. Probable future technological changes make flexibility more necessary still. Two technical characteristics will be key: a large enough payload capacity and the injection of satellites into energetic orbits, including final geostationary orbit. But carrying out such missions will only be possible if a new generation upper stage is used. The November 2008 ESA ministerial meeting opted to wait until 2011 to decide whether this is necessary, making it doubtful whether Arianespace will be able to maintain leadership in the commercial market. The authors urge a rethink of this position.     

Will China become a military space superpower?

China's ambitious space program was born in extremely poor national conditions in 1956. By 15 October 2003, with the successful return of the Shenzhou-4 manned space flight, it had developed dramatically. While this flight is a milestone in China's space capabilities, the Shenzhou-4 mission should be considered not as an end, but as the entry ticket to the space power club of the USA and Russia. China may now be a space power, but it is not yet a military space superpower in the way of the latter two countries. This paper investigates whether China will become a military space superpower by reviewing the development of its space program. It examines Chinese military space capabilities in terms of their military space potential, and discusses the political, military and economic implications of this issue. Finally, the paper suggests that China should continue to take the road to openness, focusing on commercial and economic efforts. This will be an alternative direction in which the country can consider exactly what space capabilities it needs in order to continue its economic development.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs,a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs, a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

Building and maintaining the constituency for long-term space exploration

The exploration of space is a long-term endeavor that will require strong public support to weather societal and political changes over the period of its implementation. In August 2006, George Mason University's Center for Aerospace Policy Research organized a workshop to address this issue. The sustainability of space exploration was investigated from a variety of perspectives by invited experts from the space sector as well as from the market research and public relations fields. This paper summarizes the results of the workshop. It presents market research data along with recommendations for an active strategic communications effort as well as public engagement to enhance public support for space exploration, especially among the younger age groups which tend to be uninterested in space activities.     

The export of space technology : Prospects and dangers

The export market for space technology, goods and services is still in its infancy, but trends indicate definite economic growth in prospect. Private companies are increasingly keen to find a foothold or increase their share in the ever widening market. National goverments are undertaking a variety of measures to help and encourage them in the export of space technology. Competition for the older US producers is sharpening from foreign firms. Political conflict is arising based on this competition and on the potential dual use of some space technologies for civilian and military purposes. The main Western industrialized countries have recently agreed on common Guidelines to control the export of launcher technology that could be used for delivering nuclear weapons. The ‘Guidelines for Sensitive Missile-Relevant Transfer’ will affect the export of much space technology and equipment.     

空间深空探测低温制冷技术的发展

深空探测技术已经被列入国家发展计划,由于空间环境的特殊性,对空间低温制冷技术提出了更高的要求。文章介绍了美国、日本和欧空局用于深空探测的深低温制冷技术的发展状况,包括超流氦制冷技术、多级机械制冷技术、吸附式制冷技术、绝热去磁制冷技术和氦稀释制冷技术,并介绍了在天文卫星和空间望远镜上的应用;综述了中国空间低温制冷技术的发展现状,提出了中国开展深低温制冷技术研究的启示和建议。     

An Asian Moon race?

After a gap of 40 years, the Moon is again the focus of several countries’ space ambitions. Japan, China and India have already launched their first Moon missions and are expected to send humans moonwards within the next 10–15 years. This revival of lunar programmes in the post-cold war era goes beyond symbolism and is also about the race to grab the natural resources of the Moon. Such ambitious missions by these states imply that they intend to change the unipolar world into one with multiple power centres, and would use space technology as one of the components to do so. This paper examines the first phase Moon missions of the Asian states and argues that their overall deep space mission aspirations have strategic ambitions attached.     

多基线组合求解深空航天器载波相位模糊方法

针对深空航天器高精度定位需求,提出多基线组合求解载波相位模糊方法,获得比群时延更精确的相时延,极大地提高无线电干涉测量精度。首先建立多基线组合求解载波相位模糊的数学模型,推导该方法对长短基线组合的约束条件。然后利用美国甚长基线阵(VLBA)对本文方法进行仿真校验,结果表明航天器定位精度可以达到纳弧度量级。最后结合我国已有干涉测量网,分析在我国未来深空探测任务中采用多基线组合测量载波相时延的可行性,给出满足方法约束的站址选择建议,可为我国深空导航无线电干涉测量技术的发展和深空测控网的完善提供参考。     

空间科学规划及对航天运输系统的需求

空间科学不仅能够推动我国在基础科学研究领域取得重大科学突破,还能够有效牵引、带动航天高新技术的发展。中国科学院空间科学战略性先导科技专项是"十二五"时期我国空间科学领域最重要的系统性进展,开启了中国空间科学发展的新篇章。"十三五"时期,我国将继续研制、发射一系列新的空间科学卫星,这对航天运输系统提出了新的技术发展需求。发展空间科学必将推动我国的航天强国、世界科技强国建设进程。     

Space station freedom ground systems program—A survey

The Space Station Freedom will be a permanently manned, low-Earth orbit research facility, elements of which are being provided by the United States, Canada, countries of the European Space Agency and Japan. The facility will be assembled in space and operated well into the twenty-first century. The ground infrastructure must be able to support both assembly and long-term operations. The infrastructure will consist of ground facilities, support systems and the associated planning and management procedures. The key facilities identified to support Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP) integrated operations and their SSFP roles will be described in detail in this paper.

Requirements for the integrated ground infrastructure are developed and controlled within the SSFP requirements documentation and baselining processes. A Ground Systems Program directive summarizes key operations functions, roles and responsibilities of the various program participants. During 1992, the SSFP is conducting a major program review of the ground infrastructure including the definition of all facility and support system functional capabilities, interfaces and dataflow requirements. Operations functionality and interface verification tests are being identified and operations readiness dates are being established.     

Super View-1-China's First Commercial Remote Sensing Satellite Constellation with a High Resolution of 0.5 m

Super View-1 satellite constellation(Super View-1 for short) is the first commercial remote sensing constellation with a resolution down to 0.5 m. It's an important part of the national spatial information infrastructure construction. It will play an important role for the global users providing remote sensing data, application solutions and remote sensing value-added services with its high-resolution and 24-hour observation capability. At present, 4 satellites of the constellation have been successfully launched and networked on orbit. The services cover surveying and mapping, land resource surveying, urban planning, agriculture, forestry, water conservancy, geological mining, environmental monitoring, defense, disaster reduction along with other traditional industries. There are also great potential applications in Mobile Internet, LBS, Smart city, insurance and other emerging professions. The successful operation of Super View-1 breaks the overseas monopoly for commercial high-resolution remote sensing satellite imagery in the China market. It's one of the major achievements in China space science and technology by actively exploring the development of commercial remote sensing markets, which is of strategic significance to the development of China remote sensing satellite business.     

The earth observation market: industrial dynamics and their impact on data policy

This paper examines the relationship between public sector objectives in the Earth observation data market and the economic interests of Earth observation data procedures. The Earth observation data market is treated as a particular example of an information market and the economic incentives created by the cultural characteristics of the market, particularly in Europe, are considered to assess the implications for data pricing policies. The analysis focuses upon implications of the vertical and horizontal linkages in the Earth observation industrial participation chain which includes space segment suppliers, space agencies and operators, data intermediaries and end users. A rebalancing of administrative and market decisions is proposed that would result in a shift in the allocation of public resources from space agencies and data intermediaries to data users whose activities are deemed to be in the widest public interest.     

Relevance of the futron/zogby survey conclusions to the current space tourism industry

Thanks to recent technological achievements such as Burt Rutan's SpaceShipOne in 2004, Bigelow's Genesis I in July 2006 and Genesis II in July 2007 and the success of space adventures’ flights to the ISS, space tourism is leaving the realm of science-fiction. It is now becoming increasingly familiar to the general public and even recognized by institutional bodies. The Futron/Zogby survey, revised in 2006 and completed with the 2006. Adventurers survey constitutes a good basis to understanding the characteristics of the nascent suborbital market and the profile of the potential customers for both suborbital and orbital travel. The previsions of these studies will be contrasted with recent market and customers’ data that was not available at the time.