Tracing the evolutionary path for space technologies

Proliferation and pace of advancing technologies warrant policy and strategic decision-making. Without thinking ahead, companies can loose marketshare and countries can yield comparative advantage. The rate at which burgeoning technologies progress, however, can make it difficult for corporations and governments alike to discern or better anticipate critical junctures in technology developments. This paper presents a conceptual, multidimensional framework, the “evolutionary path”, for understanding the stages of technological development in the civil space area. The analysis draws from three case studies — communications satellites, computers, and launch vehicles — and shows how the implications and developments of new, breakthrough technologies differ from the incremental technology upgrades or the later emergence of interconnected systems and infrastructures.     

Could civil satellites monitor nuclear tests?

As the momentum for further cuts in nuclear weapons grows and fears of nuclear proliferation increase, the need to monitor nuclear testing is becoming more pressing. While military observation satellites are already used for this purpose, this article argues that greater independence and impartiality could be achieved through the use of civilian remote sensing satellites, whose images could be made available to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). How images from space are processed and interpreted is described, as is how civil satellites might be used to verify a comprehensive test ban treaty. Four options open to the IAEA for utilizing remotely sensed images are discussed.     

Towards an effective and adequately verifiable PPWT

The 2008 Russia–China proposal to the Conference on Disarmament on preventing space weapons has attracted wide attention. Lengthy debates have been made on the need for such a treaty and for two of its most disputed elements, namely prohibition of ground-based anti-satellite weapons and verification. This article argues that, regardless of verifiability, such a treaty is urgently needed for the benefit of international peace and security, and for the security interests of spacefaring countries. But in order to serve these purposes effectively, the treaty should at least explicitly prohibit testing, deployment and use of space-based weapons and ground-based anti-satellite weapons. Given the necessary political will, it is feasible to “adequately verify” these constraints. The verification regime should permit the incorporation of new measures in the future, combine international technical means and national technical means, combine remote-sensing technologies and on-site inspections, and be complemented by transparency and confidence-building measures.     

Outer space exploitability: International law and developing nations

This article outlines the principles upon which international space law is based. Space law has been successful so far in benefiting the developing countries without hampering the spacefaring nations. The principal treaty provisions that are of special interest to developing nations are discussed, and issues associated with remote sensing, communications and environmental harms are examined in detail. Since 1967 there has been a sharp change in the focus of legal concern towards ‘taking into account the particular needs of developing countries’, a principle that will be central to arrangements for the equitable sharing of the benefits of exploiting the space environment and its natural resources.     

Surreal estate: addressing the issue of ‘Immovable Property Rights on the Moon’

At a time when scientific and commercial interest in the Moon is being reinvigorated it is becoming fashionable for ordinary individuals to ‘buy’ plots on the lunar surface, with the ‘vendors’ arguing that an absence of specific prohibition of individual private activity in space makes such action legal. It is therefore time for the legal community to address this situation by investigating just how legal such activity is—and bringing their findings to the attention of governments. This can be done through an examination of the relationship between national law and international space law, of the provisions of international space law—especially Article 2 of the Outer Space Treaty—and by answering any claims to private ownership of immovable property. Aside from the fact that individuals appear to be being duped, the pursuit of property claims on the Moon could impede future activities aimed at benefiting society.     

The use of remote sensing to support the application of multilateral environmental agreements

There is a growing realisation of the increasingly varied and interesting possibilities for the use of Earth observation data to ensure compliance with international obligations generally, and treaty obligations in particular. Most examinations of the application of Earth observation data to monitoring states’ compliance with international obligations focus on the environmental sector. This paper proposes the use of remote sensing satellites for the support of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), especially land monitoring MEAs such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1997). It discusses the uses of remote sensing for treaty implementation or enforcement in general, and the admissability of satellite imagery as legal proof, before examining how Earth observation-derived data could be of benefit to specific MEAs. As sensors become increasingly sophisticated the use of remote sensing in this area should grow but it needs to be supported by its more widespread legal recognition as proof.     

A code of ethics for conducting business in outer space

The aim to increase commercial economic activity in space will be facilitated by the introduction of a code of ethics for the businesses involved, something that is now commonplace on Earth. A proposed such code—comprising 12 principles—is presented below. It covers areas such as environmental stewardship of space, the promotion of honest dealings, making safety an important concern, ensuring a free-market economy and disclosure of conflicts of interest or political contributions.     

International coordination of space solar power related activities

Because the need for energy is global, and many energy networks are already interdependent, because no one country has sufficient technological capability or sufficient funds to provide a space solar powered solution on its own, and because any such solution will require international regulation, international coordination will be vital to any attempt to produce energy for Earth from space. This will be made easier by the fact that work on the subject has already been widely publicized and distributed and cooperative efforts have already been made. Various coordinating approaches are described and the need to forge partnerships between government, industry and academia — with greater involvement of all non-space groups concerned with energy — is emphasized. A “terracing approach” to the actual implementation of SPS is suggested and outlined.     

Basic space science and developing countries

Basic science — including space science — is vital for national development, but developing countries often meet obstacles to participation in the international scientific community. This can be mitigated by international cooperation, particularly in the field of education. The author calls for a concerted effort to increase such cooperation regionally, internationally and bilaterally; international organizations should also become involved. Various forms of cooperation are suggested and UN efforts in the promotion of basic space science are described.     

No deal in space: A bargaining model analysis of U.S. resistance to space arms control

Space systems are essential to the global economy and security. The possibility of disruptions arising from competition between the United States and China through the testing and deployment of weapons in space has led to concerns over an incipient space arms race that would threaten satellites, leading to international calls for a space arms control treaty. The paper presents a rationalist theory analysis on the lack of progress in establishing such a treaty, identifying the United States' position of primacy in the global order and its preeminence in space as a primary cause.     

Increasing global awareness of space activities: World Space Week 2001

This report describes the background to and rationale for World Space Week, now an annual event aiming to increase public awareness of the benefits of peaceful space use and to act as an educational tool for the young. Examples of typical activities in a variety of countries are presented. The report concludes with recommendations—such as rescheduling existing events to the period of World Space Week—to make the event even more successful.     

SPS — time for a pilot plant

Scientists have expended much energy researching SPS but their theories have never yet been realistically tested. It is time for this to change and SPS 2000 — a Japanese-sponsored project to construct and operate a pilot plant to supply electricity to residents of equatorial zones — could provide the means. The project and its benefits are described and the political—economic imperatives for undertaking it presented. The author argues that there are cogent — and practical — reasons for funding a pilot plant, especially given the vast sums spent on other space activities, and on nuclear power, although the latter has never lived up to expectations.     

Space law conference 2001 : Legal challenges and commercial opportunities for Asia

Many eminent space lawyers gathered in Singapore to attend the first space law conference to be held in South East Asia. Topics for discussion—which included commercialization of space activities and its effect on the needs of developing countries, and the legal issues of expanding communications and navigation satellite services—were of particular interest to the region. This report summarizes the presentations in each session and presents the conclusions and recommendations—such as the need for a legal instrument to regulate remote sensing—produced.     

The origins of the “Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities” initiative at UN COPUOS

The success of space-based systems worldwide, providing services to society and satisfying defence and security needs, has led to a situation where outer space is increasingly crowded. In addition, the rapid proliferation of space debris threatens the safe utilization of outer space on the most commonly used orbits. Beyond the mitigation of the orbital debris threat, additional measures will be needed to ensure the safety and security of activities in outer space for the long-term. This article describes the initiative to introduce a new agenda item in the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), first presented to COPUOS delegations in 2007, which led to a formal decision in 2009. This in turn led to the establishment of a dedicated Working Group of the Scientific and Technical Sub-Committee in 2010, with a work plan leading to a report and associated recommendations in 2014. Some references are made to other initiatives affecting space security, such as the Russia–China draft treaty (PPWT) tabled at the Conference on Disarmament and the EU-proposed Code of Conduct.     

Legal consequences of a SETI detection

If a detection of ETI takes place, this will in all probability be the result of either: (a) detecting and recognising a signal or other emission of ETI; or (b) the finding of an alien artifact (for instance on the Moon or other Celestial Body of our Solar System); or (c) the highly improbable event of an actual encounter. First and foremost, legal consequences regarding any of these contingencies will result from immediate consultations between nations on Earth. Understandings, memoranda and even agreements might be proposed and/or concluded. Such results within the field of terrestrial law will surely be a new branch of International Law, and particularly of International Space Law. At the same time, terrestrial nations will have to realize that any ETI will be self-determined intelligent individualities or organizations who might have their own understanding of “rules of behaviour” and thus, be legal subjects. Whether one calls such rules “law” or not: if two intelligent races—both of which have specific rules of behaviour—come into contact with each other, the basic understanding of such mutual rules will lead to a kind of “code of conduct”. This might be the starting point for a kind of Law—Metalaw—between different races in the Universe.     

Seeking justifications for human spaceflight

Traditionally cited benefits such as scientific and economic progress or political advantages have been widely recognized as insufficient to justify ongoing and future human spaceflight programmes in today's prevailing geopolitical and socioeconomic environment. A rationale for human spaceflight evoking visions such as exploitation of extraterrestrial resources and human exploration of space has to cope with an unavoidable dilemma: attractive as they may appear, those projects are fraught with many grave uncertainties and risks. The paper attempts to answer the question of which significance (if any) such visionary projects may assume in justifying the continuation of human spaceflight activities. We argue that, despite as yet unanswerable technological and economic questions and despite the extremely long time-frames involved, it seems reasonable and, hence, justified to keep the option alive to be able to solve — by means of humans in space — one of humankind's probable major problems in the coming century: the impending energy crisis.     

US–Russian cooperation in human spaceflight: assessing the impacts

How far the broad security, political and economic goals behind the USA's invitation to Russia to participate in the International Space Station have been achieved is assessed in this synthesis of the views of a range of experts in Russian affairs and US foreign and national security policy. The article covers the impacts of cooperation on the Russian aerospace industrial base, on nonproliferation issues and on overall US–Russian relations. Various themes are identified—such as Russian ambivalence over embracing Western norms—and while the experts agreed on certain subjects, there was no overall unanimity.     

The impact of launch vehicle type and size on development cost

The technical development trend of future launch vehicle systems is towards fully reusable systems, in order to reduce space transportation cost. However, different types of launch vehicles are feasible, as there are

• —winged two-stage systems (WTS)

• —ballistic single-stage vehicles (BSS)

• —ballistic two-stage vehicles (BTS)

The performance of those systems is compared according to the present state of the art as well as the development cost, based on the “TRANSCOST-Model”. The development costs are shown versus launch mass (GLOW) and pay-load for the three types of reusable systems mentioned above.It is shown that performance optimization and cost minimization lead to different results. It is more economic to increase the vehicle size for achieving higher performance, instead of increasing technical complexity.Finally it is described that due to the essentially lower launch cost of reusable vehicles it will be feasible to recover the development cost by an amortization charge on the launch cost. This possibility, however, would allow commercial funding of future launch vehicle developments.     

Stepping stones to the future: Achieving a sustainable lunar outpost

The current emphasis in the US and internationally on lunar robotic missions is generally viewed as a precursor to possible future human missions to the Moon. As initially framed, the implementation of high level policies such as the US Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) might have been limited to either human lunar sortie missions, or to the testing at the Moon of concepts-of-operations and systems for eventual human missions to Mars [White House, Vision for Space Exploration, Washington, DC, 14 January, 2004. [1]]. However, recently announced (December 2006) US goals go much further: these plans now place at the center of future US—and perhaps international—human spaceflight activities a long-term commitment to an outpost on the Moon.Based on available documents, a human lunar outpost could be emplaced as early as the 2020–2025 timeframe, and would involve numerous novel systems, new technologies and unique operations requirements. As such, substantial investments in research and development (R&D) will be necessary prior to, during, and following the deployment of such an outpost. It seems possible that such an outpost will be an international endeavor, not just the undertaking of a single country—and the US has actively courted partners in the VSE. However, critical questions remain concerning an international lunar outpost. What might such an outpost accomplish? To what extent will “sustainability” be built into the outpost? And, most importantly, what will be the outpost's life cycle cost (LCC)?This paper will explore these issues with a view toward informing key policy and program decisions that must be made during the next several years. The paper will (1) describe a high-level analytical model of a modest lunar outpost, (2) examine (using this model) the parametric characteristics of the outpost in terms of the three critical questions indicated above, and (3) present rough estimates of the relationships of outpost goals and “sustainability” to LCC. The paper will also consider possible outpost requirements for near-term investments in enabling research in light of experiences in past advanced technology programs.     

The new UK civil space strategy, 2008–2012

The UK civil space strategy for the years 2008–2012 and beyond was published in February 2008. This paper describes the key features of the strategy and highlights those areas that are new or different from the aims set out in previous strategies. In particular, the strategy lays out a new five-part high-level vision for UK civil space.