利用人工神经网络提前1h预报电离层TEC

提出了一种利用人工神经网络提前1h预报电离层TEC的简便方法. 考虑到实际工程应用要求, 没有使用其他空间天气参数, 而是选择电离层TEC观测数据本身作为输入参数. 输入参数为当前时刻TEC、一阶差分、相对差分和时间, 输出参数为预报时刻TEC. 利用文中介绍的GPS/TEC处理方法解算厦门站2004年电离层TEC观测数据, 对预报方法进行评估, 全年平均相对误差为9.3744%, 预报结果与观测值相关性达到了0.96678. 结果表明, 利用人工神经网络方法提前1h预报电离层TEC有很好的应用前景.      

实时电离层格网数据精度评估

电离层延迟是制约单频接收机定位精度的重要误差源之一.为提高单频接收机的实时电离层改正精度，需要实时电离层数据.以中国科学院空天信息创新研究院提供的实时电离层数据为例，对比分析不同太阳活动期实时电离层数据及预报电离层数据与IGS最终电离层数据之间的差值以及不同太阳活动期、不同纬度测站的电离层数据对电离层延迟进行改正后得到的定位精度.结果表明:在低太阳活动期和高太阳活动期，实时电离层数据无法很好地反映大部分海洋上空的电离层变化特性；对不同太阳活动期，实时电离层数据在高纬度测站的定位精度优于预报数据和广播模型，在中纬度测站的定位精度略低于预报数据而与广播模型定位精度相当，在低纬度测站的定位精度略优于预报数据和广播模型.      

基于经验加速度的低轨卫星轨道预报新方法

研究将定轨过程中的经验加速度应用于地球低轨卫星轨道预报的新方法. 利用GPS伪距观测数据和简化动力学最小二乘批处理方法对地球低轨卫星定 轨, 其中卫星位置、速度及大气阻力系数和辐射光压系数可以直接用于轨道预报. 作为简化动力学最重要特征的经验加速度呈现准周期、余弦曲线特点, 可通过 傅里叶级数拟合建模. 确定性动力学模型与补偿大气阻力模型误差的切向经验 加速度级数拟合模型组成增强型动力学模型用于提高轨道预报精度. 应用 GRACE-A星载GPS伪距观测数据和IGS超快星历定轨并进行轨道预报, 结果表明 轨道预报初值位置精度达到0.2m, 速度精度达到1×10-4m·s-1, 预报3天位置精度优于60m, 比只利用确定性动力学模型进行预报精度平 均提高2.3倍. 先定轨后预报的模式可用在星上自主精确导航系统中.      

恒星地球模拟器的光学系统设计与精度模拟分析研究

为实现对敏感器的地面标定与精度测试, 需研制一套恒星地球模拟器, 要求其星间角距模拟精度优于10", 地球张角模拟精度优于0.05°. 通过设计高精度准直光学系统与高精度紫外准直光学系统, 实现了对星点位置与地球图像的无穷远距离模拟; 提出了星点位置模拟误差修正方法与地球图形模拟误差修正方法, 提高星间角距和地球张角的模拟精度.实测星间角距与地球张角模拟结果表明, 该模拟器的星间角距模拟精度优于10", 地球张角模拟精度优于0.02°.      

钟差和动力学参数联合约束下的北斗卫星轨道快速确定

受地球非球形引力、第三体摄动和太阳光压等摄动因素的影响,导航卫星位置存在长周期变化趋势,需要定期对导航卫星进行轨道机动,以保持卫星轨位和导航服务区.导航卫星机动后的定轨,特别是GEO卫星,其频繁轨控后的轨道快速确定问题,是制约卫星可用度和导航系统服务性能的重要因素.在基于伪距相位数据的轨道测定中,轨道与钟差的统计相关是制约卫星轨道快速确定的关键因素,特别是在观测弧段短的情况下,待估参数之间的相关性更强,动力学参数估计结果严重失真会导致轨道预报精度衰减明显.当卫星钟差与测站钟差通过外部手段高精度测定后,可以减少待估参数的估计,同时利用长弧定轨的动力学与运动学参数先验信息,对短弧定轨模式进行参数约束,卫星定轨精度将有很大的提升空间.通过钟差与力学参数的联合约束,实现了北斗卫星短弧快速定轨,解决了卫星机动后的轨道快速确定问题,SLR评估的卫星机动后4 h定轨外符视向精度优于0.71 m,比常规方法提高了3倍,预报1 h轨道视向精度为1.89 m,用户等效距离误差(UERE)精度达到1.85 m.     

RTCA协议下北斗完好性降效参数算法设计及检验

目前我国北斗导航增强系统的完好性参数设计缺少针对差分信息有效性的降效参数设计,不满足航空无线电委员会（RTCA）提出的接口协议,无法同国际其他GNSS星基增强系统相兼容。根据RTCA接口协议,针对我国卫星导航系统的完好性降效参数处理算法进行了研究,利用北斗实测数据分析了完好性降效参数对用户增强服务的影响,验证了算法的有效性。结果表明,正常情况下,北斗导航系统增强服务三维定位精度可达到113m。当用户丢失部分差分改正信息时,定位精度约144m,精度下降约274%,利用完好性降效参数对过期差分信息进行降效处理,优化定位权阵,可将定位精度提高至117m,达到正常增强服务水平。     

时间序列法在临近空间大气风场预报中的应用

受多种因素影响，临近空间大气环境要素复杂多变，预报难度很大.本文采用时间序列法中的自回归滑动平均（ARMA）模型对临近空间大气风场开展统计预报方法研究，基于廊坊（39.4°N，116.7°W）中频雷达在88km高度的大气纬向风数据开展预报试验.本次预报试验的样本数据为2015年9月24日至10月24日风场数据，利用过去7天数据对未来第8天风场数据进行预报.试验结果显示，ARMA模型对临近空间大气风场预报有一定的适用性.当风场变化规律性较强，即样本数据风场呈现出比较显著的24h周期性变化时，ARMA模型预报效果较好；当风场发生突变时，预报效果变差.与实测数据的对比结果表明，ARMA模型预报结果的误差在9~27m·s-1，预报效果优于同阶自回归（AR）模型，略优于高阶AR模型.      

中法海洋卫星微波散射计在轨性能验证

中法海洋卫星（CFOSAT）微波散射计是国际上第一个旋转扇形波束体制散射计，通过优化雷达观测几何实现对地面目标多角度和多方位的高精度测量，提高海面风场、土壤湿度和海冰面积等地球物理参数的反演精度.根据CFOSAT卫星2018年10月发射以来的在轨测试数据，结合散射计系统特点，分析验证了星上定标数据和后向散射系数反演结果的正确性，并对CFOSAT首批科学数据进行了定量分析和系统评价.结果表明，CFOSAT散射计在轨工作状态良好，实际性能与设计预期一致，风速测量精度优于1.5m·-1，风向测量精度优于15°，空间分辨率可达12.5km，在近岸风场监测、土壤湿度遥感和海冰面积估计等应用领域具有独特的优势.      

北斗三号系统广域差分服务精度评估

为了保证北斗系统广域差分服务的平稳过渡，北斗三号系统（BDS-3）通过GEO卫星B1I/B3I信号播发北斗二号协议广域差分改正信息，包括等效钟差改正数与格网点电离层信息。分析了增加BDS-3卫星后，等效钟差改正数和格网点电离层信息的特征，并对BDS-2和BDS-3的用户差分距离误差（UDRE）进行了对比。联合BDS-2和BDS-3实测数据，对BDS-3广域差分服务定位精度进行了评估。分析结果表明:BDS-2卫星广播星历空间信号用户等效距离误差（UERE）约为1 m，经过等效钟差改正数后，用户差分距离误差约为0.3 m；BDS-3卫星广播星历空间信号用户等效距离误差约为0.4 m，经过等效钟差改正数后，用户差分距离误差约为0.2 m。等效钟差改正数可以修正广播电文更新带来的空间信号阶跃误差，显著提升卫星空间信号精度。与基本导航系统播发的Klobuchar 8模型，广域差分系统所播发的格网点电离层信息可将电离层误差修正精度提高约18%。与单独BDS-2卫星相比，BDS-2/BDS-3卫星联合条件下，基本导航的单频用户和双频用户定位精度可分别提升26%和41%；广域差分服务的单频用户定位精度为2.4 m，双频用户定位精度为1.7 m，单频用户和双频用户定位精度分别提升13%和41%。      

导航卫星广播星历误差特性频域分析及预报模型

广播星历误差是影响卫星导航用户定位精度的重要因素之一。文章以GPS为例,应用误差频谱分析方法对GPS广播星历在频域内的误差特性进行分析,利用频谱分析模型及其与AR的混合模型对星历误差进行预报。分析结果表明,GPS广播星历具有明显的周期变化;频谱分析模型可以发现星历误差的主要周期变化,但预报精度不高;频谱分析和AR混合模型预报精度较高,经过误差补偿后,广播星历精度在0.5m以内(1σ)。     

ITRS/GCRS transformation: Uncertainty propagation analysis and short-term modelling of IAU 2006/2000A developments

A study of the uncertainty propagation in ITRS/GCRS transformation is presented in this work. General law of propagation of variances is applied to the ITRS/GCRS transformation matrix, deriving the analytical expressions to compute GCRS position uncertainty. This evaluation is based on EOP uncertainties provided by IERS long-term series and formal uncertainties of ITRS-compatible coordinates. Numerical results for the period 1998–2016 are shown and discussed for ITRS positions in different altitudes and latitudes, providing graphical and numerical insights of the mapping of EOP uncertainties to transformed coordinates.Eventually, an analysis of short-term evolution of the Celestial Intermediate Pole coordinates in the GCRS provided by the IAU2006/2000A precession-nutation model is carried out, in order to assess the feasibility to potentially broadcast these parameters in GNSS navigation message. This approach would facilitate the dissemination of terrestrial-celestial transformation parameters for real time users, given that polar motion and UT1-UTC are already foreseen in GPS interface specification. The results presented in this work confirm the feasibility of this idea.     

Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics

Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3?h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6?days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15?months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6?days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for $\mathrm{\Delta }$UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service.     

Mechanism of error propagation from the subdaily Universal Time model into the celestial pole offsets estimated by VLBI

Within the analysis of space geodetic observations, errors of the applied subdaily Earth rotation model can induce systematic effects in different estimated parameters. In this paper, we focus on the impact of the subdaily Universal Time (UT1) model on the celestial pole offsets (CPO) estimated from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations. We provide a mechanism that describes the error propagation from the subdaily UT1 into the daily CPO.In typical 24-h VLBI sessions the observed quasars are well distributed over the sky. But the observations, if looked at from the Earth-fixed frame, are not homogeneously distributed. The amount of observations performed in different terrestrial directions shows an irregularity which can be roughly compared to the case where the observations are collected in only one Earth-fixed direction. This peculiarity leads to artefacts in VLBI solutions, producing a correlation between the subdaily variations in UT1 and the position of the celestial pole. As a result errors in diurnal terms of the subdaily UT1 model are partly compensated by the estimated CPO. We compute for each 24-h VLBI session from 1990 until 2011 the theoretical response of the CPO to an error in the subdaily UT1 by setting up a least-squares adjustment model and using as input the coordinates of the observed quasars and observation epochs. Then real observed response of the estimated CPO derived from the VLBI session solutions is compared to the predicted one. A very good agreement between the CPO values estimated from VLBI and the predicted values was achieved. The presented model of error propagation from the subdaily UT1 into the daily CPO allows to predict and explain the behaviour of CPO estimates of VLBI solutions computed with different subdaily Earth rotation models, what can be helpful for testing the accuracy of different subdaily tidal models.     

Accurate orbit predictions for debris orbit manoeuvre using ground-based lasers

Orbit manoeuvre of low Earth orbiting (LEO) debris using ground-based lasers has been proposed as a cost-effective means to avoid debris collisions. This requires the orbit of the debris object to be determined and predicted accurately so that the laser beam can be locked on the debris without the loss of valuable laser operation time. This paper presents the method and results of a short-term accurate LEO (<900 km in altitude) debris orbit prediction study using sparse laser ranging data collected by the EOS Space Debris Tracking System (SDTS). A main development is the estimation of the ballistic coefficients of the LEO objects from their archived long-term two line elements (TLE). When an object is laser tracked for two passes over about 24 h, orbit prediction (OP) accuracy of 10–20 arc seconds for the next 24–48 h can be achieved – the accuracy required for laser debris manoeuvre. The improvements in debris OP accuracy are significant in other applications such as debris conjunction analyses and the realisation of daytime debris laser tracking.     

联合太阳和行星际物理参数预测行星际激波能否到达地球

选取第23太阳活动周（1997—2006年）期间542例由太阳爆发活动驱动的行星际激波事件,分析确定了太阳源头和行星际空间中影响行星际激波能否到达地球轨道的关键物理参数;在此基础上,建立了预测行星际激波能否到达地球的新预报模型（EdEaSPM）. 回溯预报结果表明,EdEaSPM模型的预报成功率约为66%,略高于国际一流预报模型的预报成功率;EdEaSPM模型的虚报率未超过50%,改善了当前国际主流模型虚报率较大的情况;对于偏度指标,虽然当前所有模型的偏度值均大于1,但EdEaSPM模型的偏度值最接近于1且明显小于其他模型的偏度值;EdEaSPM模型的其他评价指标也都高于国际主流模型的相应指标. 此外,选取2012年期间的激波事件对EdEaSPM模型进行了预报检验,预测结果与实际情况吻合. EdEaSPM模型不仅能够提前约1～3天进行预报,而且预报效果与国际一流模型具有可比性,尤其是在提高预报成功率及降低虚报率方面具有一定优势.      

对流层顶变化对上对流层/下平流层臭氧分布的影响

上对流层和下平流层(UT／LS)，位于8-25km高度之间，是大气中一个很特殊的区域．大部分的臭氧分布在下平流层，在下平流层臭氧的含量发生一个很小的变化，就会对气候和地面的紫外辐射产生很大的影响．而作为气象参数的对流层顶，是充分混合、缺乏臭氧的上对流层和层结稳定、臭氧丰富的下平流层之间的边界或过渡层，其变化对臭氧总量和分布有直接和明显的影响．本文使用二维模式模拟研究对流层顶变化对臭氧在UT／LS分布的影响．模拟结果表明对流层顶的季节变化对UT/LS的臭氧分布有明显的影响，臭氧的局地变化可以超过10％在冬季北半球中纬度对流层顶高度升高1km时，模式结果表明对臭氧分布的影响比较显著，局地变化可超过6％，但是对臭氧总量的影响较小，变化不超过5DU，小于观测资料统计分析的结果。     

一种基于温度参数的热层密度修正方法

热层大气的阻力效应是影响低轨航天器大量空间操作的重要因素, 尤其是经验密度模式, 其固有的至少15%的内符合误差已严重制约航天器轨道计算精度的提高. 针对广泛应用的经验密度模式, 选择物理背景简明、关联参数较少的JACCHIA71模式, 以地磁平静条件下的全球散逸层顶温度最小值T_c及125 km高度拐点温度T_x为对象, 建立密度相对于上述温度参数的条件方程, 推导密度相对于温度参数的解析偏导数, 并给出其最小二乘解. 同时, 利用CHAMP卫星数据对模式进行修正, 模式平均误差从40%降低至3%左右. 通过TG01飞行器的轨道预报比较, 修正前后轨道预报位置精度从2 km提升至1 km左右. 经过CHAMP卫星和TG01飞行器的实测数据检验, 验证了修正算法的正确性和有效性.      

TLE预报精度改进及碰撞预警中的应用

双行根数（Two Line Elements,TLE）是目前唯一公开发布且编目最完备的地球轨道空间目标编目数据,由于其根数的特殊性,必须配合SGP4/SDP4 使用导致其预报精度有限. 通过对TLE+SGP4/SDP4预报误差源的分析,利用历史TLE数据生成准观测数据重新进行轨道拟合,针对不同轨道高度和面积质量比情况,确定相应拟合周期,得出了基于弹道系数先验信息有效确定面积质量比的经验方法,对多个独立时段拟合后轨道根数结合数值方法的预报误差进行统计,结果表明,拟合后的TLE根数预报精度与稳定性有很大程度提升. 利用实例对拟合TLE在碰撞预警中的应用进行分析,认为该方法对航天工程中碰撞预警置信度的提高具有重要意义.      

Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data

A method of prediction of expected part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray (CR) by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar activity data prediction and determined parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms is presented. This gave possibility to make prediction of expected part of global climate change, caused by long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. In this paper, we use the model of cosmic ray modulation in the Heliosphere, which considers a relation between long-term cosmic ray variations with parameters of the solar magnetic field. The later now can be predicted with good accuracy. By using this prediction, the expected cosmic ray variations in the near Earth space also can be estimated with a good accuracy. It is shown that there are two possibilities: (1) to predict cosmic ray intensity for 1–6 months by using a delay of long-term cosmic ray variations relatively to effects of the solar activity and (2) to predict cosmic ray intensity for the next solar cycle. For the second case, the prediction of the global solar magnetic field characteristics is crucial. For both cases, reliable long-term cosmic ray and solar activity data as well as solar magnetic field are necessary. For solar magnetic field, we used results of two magnetographs (from Stanford and Kitt Peak Observatories). The obtained forecasting of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation we use for estimation of the part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray intensity changing (influenced on global cloudiness covering).     

Impact of Jason-2/T2L2 Ultra-Stable-Oscillator Frequency Model on DORIS stations coordinates and Earth Orientation Parameters

Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) is a tracking technique based on a one-way ground to space Doppler link. For Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, DORIS shows a robust capability in terms of data coverage and availability, due to a wide and well-distributed ground network, where data are made available by the International Doris Service (IDS). However, systematic errors remain in the DORIS data, such as instabilities of the on-board clock due to radiation encountered in space, which limit the accurate determination of station positions.The DORIS on-board clock frequency stability is degraded by the increased radiation found in the region of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) and has been shown to degrade station position estimation. This paper introduces a new model correction to the DORIS data for the frequency of the Jason-2 Ultra Stable Oscillator (USO), derived from the Time Transfer by Laser Link (T2L2) experiment (Belli and Exertier, 2018). We show that a multi-satellite DORIS solution including this T2L2-corrected data applied to the frequency modelling for The DORIS data, improves the estimation of station coordinates. We show the tie residuals with respect to collocated GPS stations are improved by several millimeters. We also demonstrate that the 117-day (Jason-2) draconitic signal in the geophysical parameters is reduced, implying that the origin of this signal is not just solar radiation pressure mis-modeling, but also radiation-induced clock perturbations on the Jason-2 DORIS Ultra-Stable-Oscillator (USO). Finally we demonstrate through comparisons with the International Earth Rotations and Reference Systems Service (IERS) C04 series for Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP), that the estimation of EOP is improved in both a Jason-2 DORIS-only and a multi-satellite DORIS solution for EOP.