Time-dependent cosmic ray modulation

Time-dependent cosmic ray modulation is calculated over multiple solar cycles using our well established two-dimensional time-dependent modulation model. Results are compared to Voyager 1, Ulysses and IMP cosmic ray observations to establish compatibility. A time-dependence in the diffusion and drift coefficients, implicitly contained in recent expressions derived by , ,  and , is incorporated into the cosmic ray modulation model. This results in calculations which are compatible with spacecraft observations on a global scale over consecutive solar cycles. This approach compares well to the successful compound approach of Ferreira and Potgieter (2004). For both these approaches the magnetic field magnitude, variance of the field and current sheet tilt angle values observed at Earth are transported time-dependently into the outer heliosphere. However, when results are compared to observations for extreme solar maximum, the computed step-like modulation is not as pronounced as observed. This indicates that some additional merging of these structures into more pronounced modulation barriers along the way is needed.     

Modeling the acceleration and modulation of anomalous cosmic ray oxygen

After the solar wind termination shock crossings of the Voyager spacecraft, the acceleration of anomalous cosmic rays has become a very contentious subject. In this paper we examine several topics pertinent to anomalous cosmic ray oxygen acceleration and transport using a numerical cosmic ray modulation model. These include the effects of drifts on a purely Fermi I accelerated spectra, the effects of introducing higher charge states of oxygen into the modulation model, examining the viability of momentum diffusion as a re-acceleration process in the heliosheath and examining energy spectra, and intensity gradients, in the inner heliosphere during consecutive drift cycles.     

Cosmic rays in the dynamic heliosheath

Cosmic ray modulation in the outer heliosphere is discussed from a modeling perspective. Emphasis is on the transport and acceleration of these particles at and beyond the solar wind termination shock in the inner heliosheath region and how this changes over a solar cycle. We will show that by using numerical models, and by comparing results to spacecraft observations, much can be learned about the dependence of cosmic ray modulation on solar cycle changes in the solar wind and heliospheric magnetic field. While the first determines the heliospheric geometry and shock structure, the latter results in a time-dependence of the transport coefficients. Depending on energy, both these effects contribute to cosmic ray intensities in the inner heliosheath changing over a solar cycle.     

Cosmic ray anisotropies in the outer heliosphere

The observation of the directional distribution of energetic and cosmic ray particles has been done with the Voyager spacecraft over a long period. Since 2002, when the first flux enhancements of charged particles associated with the approach of Voyager 1 to the solar wind termination shock were observed, these anisotropy measurements have become of special interest. They play an important role to understand the magnetic field and shock structure and the basics of the modulation of cosmic ray and anomalous particles at and beyond the termination shock. They also serve as motivation to study the spatial behavior of galactic and anomalous cosmic ray anisotropies with numerical modulation models in order to illustrate how the radial anisotropy, at different energies, change from upstream to downstream of the termination shock. Observations made by Voyager 1 indicate that the termination shock is a complicated region than previously thought, hence the effects of the latitude dependence of the termination shock’s compression ratio and injection efficiency on the radial anisotropies of galactic and anomalous protons will be illustrated. We find that the magnitude and direction of the radial anisotropy strongly depends on the position in the heliosphere and the energy of particles. The effect of the TS on the radial anisotropy is to abruptly increase its value in the heliosheath especially in the A > 0 cycle for galactic protons and in both polarity cycles for anomalous protons. Furthermore, the global effect of the latitude dependence of the shock’s compression ratio is to increase the radial anisotropy for galactic protons throughout the heliosphere, while when combined with the latitude dependence of the injection efficiency this increase depends on modulation factors for anomalous protons and can even alter the direction of the radial anisotropy.     

Modeling ground and space based cosmic ray observations

After entering our local astrosphere (called the heliosphere), galactic cosmic rays, as charged particles, are affected by the Sun’s turbulent magnetic field. This causes their intensities to decrease towards the inner heliosphere, a process referred to as modulation. Over the years, cosmic ray modulation has been studied extensively at Earth, utilizing both ground and space based observations. Moreover, modelling cosmic ray modulation and comparing results with observations, insight can be gained into the transport of these particles, as well as offering explanations for observed features. We review some of the most prominent cosmic ray observations made near Earth, how these observations can be modelled and what main insights are gained from this modelling approach. Furthermore, a discussion on drifts, as one of the main modulation processes, are given as well as how drift effects manifest in near Earth observations. We conclude by discussing the contemporary challenges, fuelled by observations, which are presently being investigated. A main challenge is explaining observations made during the past unusual solar minimum.     

Challenges to cosmic ray modeling: From beyond the solar wind termination shock

Voyager 1 crossed the solar wind termination shock on December 16, 2004 at a distance of 94 AU from the Sun, to become the first spacecraft to explore the termination shock region and to enter the heliosheath, the final heliospheric frontier. By the end of 2006, Voyager 1 will be at ∼101 AU, with Voyager 2 at ∼81 AU and still approaching the termination shock. Both spacecraft have been observing the modulation of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays since their launch in 1977. The recent observations close to or inside the heliosheath have provided several interesting ‘surprises’ with subsequent theoretical and modeling challenges. Examples are: what does the modulation of galactic cosmic rays amount to in this region?; how do the anomalous cosmic rays get accelerated and modulated?; why are there ‘breaks’ in the power-law slopes of the spectra of accelerated particles? Several numerical models have been applied to most of these topics over the years and comprehensive global predictions have been made the past decade, thought to be based on reasonable assumptions about the termination shock and the heliosheath. Examples of these predictions and assumptions are concisely discussed within the context of the main observed features of cosmic rays in the vicinity of the termination shock, ending with a discussion of some of the issues and challenges to cosmic ray modeling in particular.     

Effects of solar modulation on the cosmic ray positron fraction

We implemented a 2D Monte Carlo model to simulate the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. The model is based on the Parker’s transport equation which contains diffusion, convection, particle drift and energy loss. Following the evolution in time of the solar activity, we are able to modulate a local interstellar spectrum (LIS), that we assumed isotropic beyond the termination shock, down to the Earth position inside the heliosphere. In this work we focused our attention to the cosmic ray positron fraction at energy below ∼10 GeV, showing how the particle drift processes could explain different results for AMS-01 and PAMELA. We compare our modulated spectra with observations at Earth, and then make a prediction of the cosmic ray positron fraction for the AMS-02 experiment.     

The transport of galactic and jovian cosmic ray electrons in the heliosphere

An overview is given on what we know about the cosmic ray diffusion process from the modelling of low-energy (MeV) electron transport in the heliosphere. For energies below ∼300 MeV, these electrons give a direct indication of the average mean free paths because they do not experience large adiabatic energy changes and their modulation is largely unaffected by global gradient and curvature drifts. Apart from galactic cosmic ray electrons, the jovian magnetosphere at ∼5 AU in the ecliptic plane is also a relatively strong source of MeV electrons, with energies up to ∼30 MeV. Therefore, when modelling the transport of these particles in the inner heliosphere, a three-dimensional treatment is essential. By comparing these models to observations from the Ulysses, Pioneer and Voyager missions, important conclusions can be made on e.g., the relative contributions of the galactic and jovian electrons to the total electron intensity, the magnitude of the parallel and perpendicular transport coefficients, and the time dependant treatment thereof.     

Dynamics of solar cosmic ray events: Processes at large heliocentric distances (⪢1 AU)

Observations of solar cosmic ray events far from the sun (?1 AU) became possible after the launch of Pioneer 10 in 1972. Four spacecraft have now travelled beyond the orbit of Jupiter - Pioneer 10/11 and Voyager 1/2 — and are producing a growing body of distant observations of solar cosmic ray events. Initial studies using Pioneer 10/11 data out to ～6 AU interpreted flare particle observations in terms of a diffusion model, including the effects of convection and adiabatic energy loss. This model enjoyed general success in explaining the time-intensity profiles in cases where the spacecraft connection longitude at the sun did not change significantly with time. The results implied that the radial diffusion coefficient (K_r) increased slowly with distance over that radial range. More recent results at larger distances imply that K_r may begin to decrease beyond ～5 AU. It is not yet clear whether the standard diffusion model will be adequate to explain solar events well beyond 5 AU. The fact that large events at very large distances can last up to two solar rotations implies that solar wind stream structure will also play a role in the event dynamics. In general, however, observations at large distances offer perhaps the best hope of separating interplanetary propagation effects from coronal storage and propagation effects which frequently dominate observed event profiles at 1 AU.     

Where does the heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays start?

The long outstanding question of where the heliospheric (solar) modulation of galactic cosmic rays actually begins, in terms of spatial position, as well as at what high kinetic energy, can now be answered. Both answers are possible by using the results of an advanced numerical model, together with appropriate observations. Voyager 1 has been exploring the outskirts of the heliosphere and is presently entering what can be called the very local interstellar medium. It has been generally expected, and accepted, that once the heliopause is crossed, the local interstellar spectrum (LIS) should be measured in situ by the Voyager spacecraft. However, we show that this may not be the case and that modulation effects on galactic cosmic rays can persist well beyond the heliopause. For example, proton observations at 100 MeV close to the heliopause can be lower by ∼$\sim$25% to 40% than the LIS, depending on solar modulation conditions. It is also illustrated quantitatively that significant solar modulation diminishes above ∼$\sim$50 GeV at Earth. It is found that cosmic ray observations above this energy contain less that 5%$5\%$ solar modulation effects and should therefore reflect the LIS for galactic cosmic rays. Input spectra, in other words the very LIS, for solar modulation models are now constrained by in situ observations and can therefore not any longer be treated arbitrarily. It is also possible for the first time to determine the lower limit of the very LIS from a few MeV/nuc to very high energies.     

Radial and latitudinal gradients of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere at solar maximum

Our understanding of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) modulation has advanced greatly in the last three decades. However, we still need an appropriate knowledge of the GCR intensity gradient. Numerical simulations of the transport particle equation allow interpretation of cosmic ray intensities in the heliosphere. We use the numerical solution of the GCR transport equation during solar maximum epoch to compute the radial and latitudinal gradients. Our analysis indicates that adiabatic energy loss plays an important role in the radial distribution of GCR in the inner heliosphere, while in the outer region the diffusion and convection are the relevant processes. The latitudinal gradient is small.     

Changes in cosmic ray propagation induced by corotating interaction regions

By simulating the trajectories for scatter free and diffusive propagation of relativistic cosmic rays in a model of the heliospheric magnetic fields containing a representation of corotating interaction regions (CIR's) we find that, due to the large gradients associated with these compression regions, the motion is strongly affected and differs substantially from the predictions of current modulation theory. For positive (outward) northern hemisphere polarity particles do not stream purely from high latitudes but can come from almost any latitude in the outer heliosphere; for negative polarity many particles come along the current sheet (as predicted) but a second, equally important, poipulation exists comprising particles that do not start on the current sheet but are brought to low latitudes by their interaction with CIR's. Thus, we conclude that CIR's (and other large scale structures) cannot be ignored in analyses of cosmic ray modulation.     

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in a north–south asymmetrical heliosphere

Observations made with the two Voyager spacecraft confirmed that the solar wind decelerates to form the heliospheric termination shock. Voyager 1 crossed this termination shock at ∼94 AU in 2004, while Voyager 2 crossed it in 2007 at a different heliolatitude, about 10 AU closer to the Sun. These different positions of the termination shock confirm the dynamic and cyclic nature of the shock’s position. Observations from the two Voyager spacecraft inside the heliosheath indicate significant differences between them, suggesting that apart from the dynamic nature caused by changing solar activity there also may exist a global asymmetry in the north–south (polar) dimensions of the heliosphere, in addition to the expected nose–tail asymmetry. This relates to the direction in which the heliosphere is moving in interstellar space and its orientation with respect to the interstellar magnetic field. In this paper we focus on illustrating the effects of this north–south asymmetry on modulation of galactic cosmic ray Carbon, between polar angles of 55° and 125°, using a numerical model which includes all four major modulation processes, the termination shock and the heliosheath. This asymmetry is incorporated in the model by assuming a significant dependence on heliolatitude of the thickness of the heliosheath. When comparing the computed spectra between the two polar angles, we find that at energies E < ∼1.0 GeV the effects of the assumed asymmetry on the modulated spectra are insignificant up to 60 AU from the Sun but become increasingly more significant with larger radial distances to reach a maximum inside the heliosheath. In contrast, with E > ∼1.0 GeV, these effects remain insignificant throughout the heliosphere even very close to the heliopause. Furthermore, we find that a higher local interstellar spectrum for Carbon enhances the effects of asymmetric modulation between the two polar angles at lower energies (E < ∼300 MeV). In conclusion, it is found that north–south asymmetrical effects on the modulation of cosmic ray Carbon depend strongly on the extent of the geometrical asymmetry of the heliosheath together with the assumed value of the local interstellar spectrum.     

Radial distribution of galactic cosmic rays at solar maximum

In this paper we analyze the spatial distribution of galactic cosmic rays during periods of maximum solar activity of the cycles 21, 22 and 23. We have used a two dimensional model to solve the cosmic ray transport equation. This model includes all relevant physical processes: diffusion, convection, drift and shock effects on cosmic ray propagation inside the heliosphere. We focused on the study of the radial distribution of galactic cosmic rays, and compare our results with the spacecraft observations for two energies (175 MeV H and 265 MeV/n He). Although the radial intensities of galactic cosmic rays can be explained qualitatively with all three local interstellar spectra (LISs) used in this work, we applied a reduced chi-squared analysis to investigate the best LIS that could fit the data.     

Modelling of galactic Carbon in an asymmetrical heliosphere: Effects of asymmetrical modulation conditions

Observations of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) from the two Voyager spacecraft inside the heliosheath indicate significant differences between them, suggesting that in addition to a possible global asymmetry in the north–south dimensions (meridional plane) of the heliosphere, it is also possible that different modulation (turbulence) conditions could exist between the two hemispheres of the heliosphere. We focus on illustrating the effects on GCR Carbon of asymmetrical modulation conditions combined with a heliosheath thickness that has a significant dependence on heliolatitude. To reflect different modulation conditions between the two heliospheric hemispheres in our numerical model, the enhancement of both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion off the ecliptic plane is assumed to differ from heliographic pole to pole. The computed radial GCR intensities at polar angles of 55° (approximating the Voyager 1 direction) and 125° (approximating the Voyager 2 direction) are compared at different energies and for both particle drift cycles. This is done in the context of illustrating how different values of the enhancement of both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion between the two hemispheres contribute to causing differences in radial intensities during solar minimum and moderate maximum conditions. We find that in the A > 0 cycle these differences between 55° and 125° change both quantitatively and qualitatively for the assumed asymmetrical modulation condition as reflected by polar diffusion, while in the A < 0 cycle, minute quantitative differences are obtained. However, when both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion have significant latitude dependences, major differences in radial intensities between the two polar angles are obtained in both polarity cycles. Furthermore, significant differences in radial intensity gradients obtained in the heliosheath at lower energies may suggest that the solar wind turbulence at and beyond the solar wind termination shock must have a larger latitudinal dependence.     

The heliospheric modulation of 3–10 MeV electrons: Modeling of changes in the solar wind speed in relation to perpendicular polar diffusion

The discrepancy between cosmic ray model predictions representing solar minimum conditions in the heliosphere and the 3–10 MeV post-1998 electrons observations by the Kiel Electron Telescope (KET) onboard Ulysses suggests the need for consistent changes in model parameters with increasing solar activity. In order to reduce this discrepancy, an effort is made to model the KET observations realistically during periods of increased solar activity by applying an advanced three-dimensional, steady-state electron modulation model based on Parker’s transport equation including the Jovian electron source. Some elements of the diffusion tensor which were not previously emphasized are revisited. A new relation is also established between the latitudinal dependence of the solar wind speed and the perpendicular polar diffusion. Based on this relation, a transition of an average solar wind speed from solar minimum to solar maximum conditions, as observed on board the Ulysses spacecraft, is modeled on the concept of the time-evolution of large polar coronal holes. These changes are correlated to different scenarios of the enhancement of perpendicular polar diffusion. Effects of these scenarios are illustrated, as a series of steady-state solutions, on the computed 7 MeV Jovian and galactic electrons in comparison with 3–10 MeV electrons observed from the period 1998 to the end of 2003. It is shown that this approach improves compatibility with the KET observations but it also points to the need for a time-dependent electron modulation model to fully describe modulation during moderate to extreme solar maximum conditions.     

Effects of the position of the solar wind termination shock and the heliopause on the heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays

The effects of changing the position of the solar wind termination shock and the position of the heliopause, and therefore the extent of the heliosheath, on the modulation of cosmic ray protons are illustrated. An improved numerical model with diffusive termination shock acceleration, a heliosheath and drifts is used. The modulation is computed in the equatorial plane and at 35 heliolatitude using recently derived diffusion coefficients applicable to a number of cosmic ray species during both magnetic polarity cycles of the Sun. It was found that qualitatively the modulation results for the different heliopause positions are similar although they differ quantitatively, e.g., clearly different radial gradients are predicted for the regions beyond the termination shock compared to inside the shock. The difference between the modulation for the two solar polarity cycles are less significant at a heliolatitude of 35° than in the equatorial plane. We found that moving the termination shock from 90 to 100 AU, with the heliopause fixed at 120 AU, caused only quantitative differences so that the exact position of the TS in the outer heliosphere seems not crucially important to global modulation. Moving the heliopause outwards, to represent the modulation in the tail region of the heliosphere, causes overall decreases in the cosmic ray intensities but not linearly as a function of energy, e.g., at 1 GeV the effect is insignificant. We conclude from this modelling that the modulation of protons in the heliospheric nose and tail regions are qualitatively similar although, clear quantitative and interesting differences occur.     

Propagation modes of energetic charged particles in the heliosphere

Several years ago, the anisotropic diffusion and convective transport accompanied by adiabatic deceleration were considered as the principal means for cosmic ray propagation. Particles of relatively small energies (～ 1 MeV) can propagate along the force lines of the magnetic field without scattering at distances of several astronomical units in the quiet heliosphere. The theory describing the 11-year variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity and the propagation of solar cosmic rays was founded on this basis. However, the anomalies of the 11-year variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity in 1969–1971 revealed the necessity to take into account the influence of the general electromagnetic field of the heliosphere giving rise to a rapid magnetic drift of particles. The particles drift either from the magnetic axis to the ecliptic plane (in the cycle of 1969–1980) or in the opposite direction depending on the sign of the general magnetic field of the sun. The neutral layers along which the drift velocity is comparable to the particle velocity is of great significance. However, in the presence of sector structure, the time of particle propagation along the neutral layer from the boundary of the modulation region to the earth orbit is substantially increased. Thus a marked adiabatic deceleration is here possible. The time delay observed in the recovery of proton intensities at various energies can be explained in terms of a transient phase of the interplanetary field following the polarity reversal.