Relationships between energetic storm particle events and interplanetary shocks driven by full and partial halo coronal mass ejections

We have analysed energetic storm particle (ESP) events in 116 interplanetary (IP) shocks driven by front-side full and partial halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with speeds $>$400 km s^?1during the years 1996–2015. We investigated the occurrence and relationships of ESP events with several parameters describing the IP shocks, and the associated CMEs, type II radio bursts, and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Most of the shocks (57 %) were associated with an ESP event at proton energies $>$1 MeV.The shock transit speeds from the Sun to 1 AU of the shocks associated with an ESP event were significantly greater than those of the shocks without an ESP event, and best distinguished these two groups of shocks from each other. The occurrence and maximum intensity of the ESP events also had the strongest dependence on the shock transit speed compared to the other parameters investigated. The correlation coefficient between ESP peak intensities and shock transit speeds was highest (0.73 $\pm$ 0.04) at 6.2 MeV. Weaker dependences were found on the shock speed at 1 AU, Alfvénic and magnetosonic Mach numbers, shock compression ratio, and CME speed. On average all these parameters were significantly different for shocks capable to accelerate ESPs compared to shocks not associated with ESPs, while the differences in the shock normal angle and in the width and longitude of the CMEs were insignificant.The CME-driven shocks producing energetic decametric–hectometric (DH) type II radio bursts and high-intensity SEP events proved to produce also more frequently ESP events with larger particle flux enhancements than other shocks. Together with the shock transit speed, the characteristics of solar DH type II radio bursts and SEP events play an important role in the occurrence and maximum intensity of ESP events at 1 AU.     

Relative fluxes of shock and prompt peaks in SEP event time profiles

Peak fluxes are an important property of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) event time profiles from both astro/heliophysical and applications perspectives. However, the peak flux in an event may occur at the event onset, or at the time of the interplanetary shock arrival (the ESP or energetic storm particles). This makes an important difference in the interpretation of the peak flux, and in any attempts to characterize or model it. This paper describes a study of SEP data sets from ACE, IMP-8 and GOES toward determining the relative properties of these peak fluxes for protons with energies near 1, 10, and 50 MeV. The results suggest that for gradual events with both peaks, the ESP peak often dominates at 1 MeV energies and is dominant about half the time at 10 MeV. Moreover, the prompt peak fluxes can be used to estimate the shock peak (ESP event) up to days ahead, especially in the lower energy range.     

A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Acceleration and transport of energeticparticles at CME-driven shocks

Historically, solar energetic particle (SEP) events are classified in two classes as “impulsive” and “gradual”. Whether there is a clear distinction between the two classes is still a matter of debate, but it is now commonly accepted that in large “gradual” SEP events, Fermi acceleration, also known as diffusive shock acceleration, is the underlying acceleration mechanism. At shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), particles are accelerated diffusively at the shock and often reach > MeV energies (and perhaps up to GeV energies). As a CME-driven shock propagates, expands and weakens, the accelerated particles can escape ahead of the shock into the interplanetary medium. These escaping energized particles then propagate along the interplanetary magnetic field, experiencing only weak scattering from fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). In this paper, we use a Monte-Carlo approach to study the transport of energetic particles escaping from a CME-driven shock. We present particle spectra observed at 1 AU. We also discuss the particle “crossing number” at 1AU and its implication to particle anisotropy. Based on previous models of particle acceleration at CME-driven shocks, our simulation allows us to investigate various characteristics of energetic particles arriving at various distances from the sun. This provides us an excellent basis for understanding the observations of high-energy particles made at 1 AU by ACE and WIND.     

Solar particle precipitation into the polar atmosphere and their dependence on hemisphere and local time

The precipitation of solar energetic particles, protons as well as electrons, at high latitudes is commonly assumed to be homogeneous across both polar caps. Using Low-Earth Orbit POES (Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites) we determine particle penetration ratios into the polar atmosphere for protons ranging from about 0.1 MeV to 500 MeV and for electrons spanning about one order of magnitude in energy with a maximum of 0.3 MeV. Based on power law fits for the POES spectrum we show, that for energies interesting for middle and lower atmosphere chemistry, particle flux over the poles is comparable in magnitude to flux at the geostationary orbit or at L1 in interplanetary space. The time period under study are the solar energetic particle (SEP) event series of October/November 2003 and January 2005.     

Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

The problem of modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) events is important to both space weather research and forecasting, and yet it has seen relatively little progress. Most important SEP events are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal and interplanetary shocks. These shocks can continuously produce accelerated particles from the ambient medium to well beyond 1 AU. This paper describes an effort to model real SEP events using a Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) MHD solar wind simulation including a cone model of CMEs to initiate the related shocks. In addition to providing observation-inspired shock geometry and characteristics, this MHD simulation describes the time-dependent observer field line connections to the shock source. As a first approximation, we assume a shock jump-parameterized source strength and spectrum, and that scatter-free transport occurs outside of the shock source, thus emphasizing the role the shock evolution plays in determining the modeled SEP event profile. Three halo CME events on May 12, 1997, November 4, 1997 and December 13, 2006 are used to test the modeling approach. While challenges arise in the identification and characterization of the shocks in the MHD model results, this approach illustrates the importance to SEP event modeling of globally simulating the underlying heliospheric event. The results also suggest the potential utility of such a model for forcasting and for interpretation of separated multipoint measurements such as those expected from the STEREO mission.     

Comment on estimating the solar proton environment that may affect Mars missions.

Estimates of the energetic proton environment for a Mars mission are generally extrapolated from the solar proton observations at 1 AU. We find that solar particle events may be divided into two general classes. Events dominated by a near-sun injection of particles onto interplanetary magnetic field lines leading to the spacecraft position represent the "classical" solar particle event associated with solar activity. This class of event will scale in radial distance by the classical power law extrapolation. The extended-interplanetary-shock source generates a maximum flux as the shock passes the detection location. This class of event typically generates maximum fluence, but in this case, the flux and fluence will not scale in the classical manner with radial distance.     

Statistical properties of SEP event flux declines

The interplanetary space is not a passive medium, which merely constitutes a scene for the propagation of previously accelerated energetic particles, but influences the distribution of particles by changing their energies as well due to interactions with magnetic field inhomogeneities. Such processes manifest themselves in the energy spectra of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. In this paper the fluxes of protons with energies of 4–60 MeV are investigated on the basis of two data sets. Both sets are homogeneous, obtained by the CPME instrument aboard the IMP 8 satellite between 1974 and 2001. The first includes all SEP events where the integral fluxes of >4 MeV protons exceeded 2 particle/cm² s sr. The other set consists of fluxes recorded in differential energy windows between 0.5 and 48 MeV. Important characteristics of SEP events include the rates of decrease of particle flux, which, as well as peak flux time, is an integral feature of the interplanetary medium within a considerable region, surrounding the observation point. The time intervals selected cover the decay phases of SEP events following flares, CMEs and interplanetary shocks of different origin. Only those parts of declines were selected, that could reasonably be described by exponential dependence, irrespective of the gradual/impulsive character of the events. It is shown that the average values of characteristic decay time, τ, and energy spectral index, γ, are all changing with the solar activity phase. Distributions of τ and γ values are obtained in SEPs with and without shocks and during different phases of events: just after peak flux and late after maximum.     

Why should the latitude of the observer be considered when modeling gradual proton events? An insight using the concept of cobpoint

The shape of flux profiles of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events depends on several not well-understood factors, such as the strength of the associated shock, the relative position of the observer in space with respect to the traveling shock, the existence of a background seed particle population, the interplanetary conditions for particle transport, as well as the particle energy. Here, we focus on two of these factors: the influence of the shock strength and the relative position of the observer. We performed a 3D simulation of the propagation of a coronal/interplanetary CME-driven shock in the framework of ideal MHD modeling. We analyze the passage of this shock by nine spacecraft located at ∼0.4 AU (Mercury’s orbit) and at different longitudes and latitudes. We study the evolution of the plasma conditions in the shock front region magnetically connected to each spacecraft, that is the region of the shock front scanned by the “cobpoint” (Heras et al., 1995), as the shock propagates away from the Sun. Particularly, we discuss the influence of the latitude of the observer on the injection rate of shock-accelerated particles and, hence, on the resulting proton flux profiles to be detected by each spacecraft.     

Relationship of solar flare accelerated particles to solar energetic particles (SEPs) observed in the interplanetary medium

Observations of hard X-ray (HXR)/γ-ray continuum and γ-ray lines produced by energetic electrons and ions, respectively, colliding with the solar atmosphere, have shown that large solar flares can accelerate ions up to many GeV and electrons up to hundreds of MeV. Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are observed by spacecraft near 1 AU and by ground-based instrumentation to extend up to similar energies as in large SEP events, but it appears that a different acceleration process, one associated with fast coronal mass ejections is responsible. Much weaker SEP events are observed that are generally rich in electrons, ³He, and heavy elements. The energetic particles in these events appear to be similar to those accelerated in flares. The Ramaty high energy solar spectroscopic imager (RHESSI) mission provides high-resolution spectroscopy and imaging of flare HXRs and γ-rays. Such observations can provide information on the location, energy spectra, and composition of the flare accelerated energetic particles at the Sun. Here, preliminary comparisons of the RHESSI observations with observations of both energetic electron and ion near 1 AU are reviewed, and the implications for the particle acceleration and escape processes are discussed.     

Interplanetary proton cumulated fluence model update

Solar particle events leading to important increase of particle fluxes at energies of order of magnitude ranging from MeV to GeV constitute an important hazard for space missions. They may lead to effects seen in microelectronics or damage to solar cells and constitute a potential hazard for manned missions. Cumulative damage is commonly expressed as a function of fluence which is defined as the integral of the flux over time. A priori deterministic estimates of the expected fluence cannot be made because over the time scale of a space mission, the fluence can be dominated by the contribution of a few rare and unpredictable high intensity events. Therefore, statistical approaches are required in order to estimate fluences likely to be encountered by a space mission in advance. This paper extends work done by Rosenqvist et al. [Rosenqvist, L., Hilgers, A., Evans, H., Daly, E., Hapgood, M., Stamper, R., Zwickl, R., Bourdarie, S., Boscher, D. Toolkit for updating interplanetary proton-cumulated fluence models. J. Spacecraft Rockets, 42(6), 1077–1090, 2005] to describe an updated predictive engineering model for the proton interplanetary fluence with energies >30 MeV. This model is derived from a complete list of solar proton fluences based on data from a number of calibrated sources covering almost three solar cycles.     

The hydroxyl radical as an indicator of SEP fluxes in the high-latitude terrestrial atmosphere

The low background values at nighttime of the mesospheric hydroxyl (OH) radical make it easier to single out the atmospheric response to the external solar forcing in Polar Regions. Because of the short lifetime of HO_x, it is possible to follow the trails of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in the terrestrial atmosphere, as shown by Storini and Damiani (2008). The sensitivity of this indicator makes discernible not only extreme particle events with a flux peak of several thousand pfu [1 pfu = 1 particle/(cm² s sr)] at energies >10 MeV, but also those with lower flux up to about 300 pfu. Using data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on board the EOS AURA satellite, we examined the correlation of OH abundance vs. solar proton flux for almost all the identified SEP events spanning from November 2004 to December 2006 (later on no more SEP events occurred during Solar Cycle no. 23). The channels at energies greater than 5 MeV and 10 MeV showed the best correlation values (r ∼ 0.90–0.95) at altitudes around 65–75 km whereas, as expected, the most energetic channels were most highly correlated at lower altitudes. Therefore, it is reasonably possible to estimate the solar proton flux from values of mesospheric OH (and viceversa) and it could be useful in studying periods with gaps in the records of solar particles.     

SEP events and multi-spacecraft observations: Constraints on theory

Fifteen solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been analyzed using proton flux data recorded by the Helios 1, Helios 2, and IMP 8 spacecraft in the energy range ∼4–40 MeV during 1974–1982. For each of the events at least two of the spacecraft have their nominal magnetic footpoint within 20° in heliocentric longitude from each other. The SEP events are sub-grouped as a function of their heliocentric longitudinal separation and heliocentric radial distance from the SEP associated solar flare and several case studies are presented in this paper. Main results concerning their usage in estimating the SEP radial dependence are given. Moreover, we investigate the behavior of the third not connected spacecraft in order to study the dependence of the proton flux as a function of flare location. It is found that the contribution of the longitudinal gradient in determining variations in the SEP proton flux is particularly relevant for spacecraft having their magnetic connection footpoint separated from the flare between 30° and 50°.     

Magnetic connectivity and solar energetic proton event intensity profiles at deka-MeV energy

We present an analysis of the time-intensity profiles of 25 solar energetic proton events at 18.2 MeV, modelled by fitting an analytical function form (a modified Weibull function) to the observed intensities. Additionally relying on previous work that characterized the magnetic connectivity between the event-related solar flare and the observer in these events with three angular parameters, we investigate the fit function parameters, the connectivity parameters, and the iron-to-carbon ratio of the events for dependencies and correlations. We find that the fit parameter controlling the basic shape of the profile (parameter a) is not clearly dependent on the connectivity parameters or the Fe/C ratio, suggesting that the profile shapes of neither well and weakly connected nor generally “impulsive” and “gradual” events differ systematically during the early stages of the event at 1 AU. In contrast, the time scaling of the fit function (parameter b) is at least moderately correlated with both the magnetic connectivity parameters and the Fe/C ratio, in that well-connected and iron-rich events are typically shorter in relative duration than weakly connected and nominal-abundance events; intensity rise times display a similar correlation with the connectivity parameters. We interpret the former result as following from the combined effect of various transport processes acting on the particles in interplanetary space, while the latter is essentially consistent with established knowledge regarding the observed dependence of the time-intensity profile shapes of solar energetic particle events on their magnetic connectivity and heavy ion abundances. The desirability of modelling the particle transport effects in detail and extending the analysis to cover higher energies is indicated.     

利用质子强度变化对太阳质子事件进行短期预报方法初步研究

采用GOSE-10卫星4～9 MeV(P2),9～15 MeV(P3),15～40 MeV(P4),40～80 MeV(P5)能段上的质子通量数据,结合质子能谱,对太阳质子事件发生前各能谱参数的变化特征进行分析,详细介绍利用能谱参数的变化特征及能量E>10 MeV的质子通量数据对太阳质子事件进行预报的新方法,并运用这种方法对2002-2006年期间太阳质子事件进行了预报.预报结果显示,预报提前量最多达到100 h以上,对质子事件的报准率达97.5%,预报方法具备一定的有效性和实用性.      

Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.     

Angular distributions of energetic charged particles observed with HELIOS-1 and -2 between 0.3 amd 1 AU and their relevance to manned interplanetary space missions.

The University of Kiel Cosmic Ray Instrument on board the solar probes HELIOS-1 and -2 measured angular distributions of electrons, protons, and heavier nuclei between 0.3 and 1 AU over one complete solar cycle between 1974 and 1986. Anisotropies are observed mainly during the rising phase of solar particle events or close to the passage of certain interplanetary shocks. The anisotropies are presented as proton data of energies between 27 and 37 MeV. The dependence of the anisotropies on particle energy and distance from the sun is provided based on diffusive propagation in interplanetary space. Strong anisotropies could provide a chance of efficient shielding of the passenger compartment by moving heavier parts of the spacecraft structure into the direction of the highest flux. A reduction of the total radiation dose by less than a factor of 2 might be achievable, however, selection of quiet times for the mission reduces the radiation hazard much more.     

On some large solar energetic particle events: Direct impulsive component and broad associated coronal mass ejections

Using the proton intensity and X-ray flux data from the GOES, combined with the observations of the associated solar eruptions by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), 14 large SEP events occurring in the period 2000 January–2002 April have been studied. It is found that: (1) events with the SEPs increasing shortly after the maximum of their parent flares (<1 h; hereafter prompt events) have rapid and great (up to four orders of magnitude) SEP increments in high-energy channels (> ∼100 MeV); however, for events whose onset of the SEP injection lags the flare maximum for a long time (>3 h; hereafter delayed events), the high-energy SEPs show no obvious enhancements (within one order of magnitude); (2) peak intensity of the prompt events is distinctly larger than that of the delayed events; (3) CMEs associated with the poorly magnetically connected events (source region <W30°) in our survey are all halo CMEs. From these observational differences, we propose a special scenario of the production of the largest SEP events: both CMEs and flares are induced in the same coronal process; high-energy particles accelerated in the reconnection region can escape easily from the open field lines and/or be transported by fast CMEs into interplanetary space, indicating a direct impulsive component in large gradual SEP events. Meanwhile, the broad width of the associated CMEs implies that the CME width is more important in SEP events production than previously considered.     

Solar proton events recorded in the stratosphere during cosmic ray balloon observations in 1957–2008

Long-term balloon observations have been performed by the Lebedev Physical Institute since 1957 up to the present time. The observations are taken several times a week at the polar and mid latitudes and allow us to study dynamics of galactic and solar cosmic ray as well as secondary particle fluxes in the atmosphere and in the near-Earth space. Solar energetic particles (120) – mostly protons – (SEP) events with >100 MeV proton intensity above 1 cm⁻² s⁻¹ s⁻¹ were recorded during 1958–2006. Before the advent of the SEP monitoring on spacecraft these results constituted the only homogeneous series of >100 MeV SEP events. The SEP intensities and energy spectra inferred from the Lebedev Physical Institute observations are consistent with the results taken in the adjacent energy intervals by the spacecraft and neutron monitors. Joint consideration of the SEP events series recorded by balloons and by neutron monitors during solar cycles 20–23 makes it possible to restore the probable number of events in solar cycle 19, which was not properly covered by observations. Some correlation was found between duration of SEP event production in a solar cycle and sunspot cycle characteristics.     

1 AU轨道SEP粒子通量的计算及与多卫星观测结果的比较

1 AU轨道上太阳高能粒子(Solar Energetic Particles,SEP)通量是空间天气的重要指标.将SEP两步传播方程的格林函数解进行数值化,模拟了2012年9月28日的SEP事件,首次计算了同一事件中GOES卫星与STEREO双星观测到的SEP通量变化过程.对GOES和STEREO-B观测点,计算所得SEP峰值I_max和峰值到达时间t_max与观测值符合较好;对STEREO-A,由于观测点与太阳活动源区间隔较大及太阳背面未知事件的影响,计算结果与观测存在一定差异.