Magnetosphere response to the 2005 and 2006 extreme solar events as observed by the Cluster and Double Star spacecraft

The four identical Cluster spacecraft, launched in 2000, orbit the Earth in a tetrahedral configuration and on a highly eccentric polar orbit (4–19.6 R_E). This allows the crossing of critical layers that develop as a result of the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere. Since 2004 the Chinese Double Star TC-1 and TC-2 spacecraft, whose payload comprise also backup models of instruments developed by European scientists for Cluster, provided two additional points of measurement, on a larger scale: the Cluster and Double Star orbits are such that the spacecraft are almost in the same meridian, allowing conjugate studies. The Cluster and Double Star observations during the 2005 and 2006 extreme solar events are presented, showing uncommon plasma parameters values in the near-Earth solar wind and in the magnetosheath. These include solar wind velocities up to ∼900 km s⁻¹ during an ICME shock arrival, accompanied by a sudden increase in the density by a factor of ∼5 and followed by an enrichment in He⁺⁺ in the secondary front of the ICME. In the magnetosheath ion density values as high as 130 cm⁻³ were observed, and the plasma flow velocity there reached values even higher than the typical solar wind velocity. These resulted in unusual dayside magnetosphere compression, detection of penetrating high-energy particles in the magnetotail, and ring current development following several successive injections of energetic particles in the inner magnetosphere, which “washed out” the previously formed nose-like ion structures.     

Noise in wireless systems from solar radio bursts

Solar radio bursts were first discovered as result of their interference in early defensive radar systems during the Second World War (1942). Such bursts can still affect radar systems, as well as new wireless technologies. We have investigated a forty-year record of solar radio burst data (1960–1999) as well as several individual radio events in the 23rd solar cycle. This paper reviews the results of a portion of this research. Statistically, for frequencies f  1 GHz (near current wireless bands), there can be a burst with amplitudes >10³ solar flux units (SFU; 1 SFU = 10⁻²² W/m²) every few days during solar maximum conditions, and such burst levels can produce problems in contemporary wireless systems.     

Ozone variability related to several SEP events occurring during solar cycle no. 23

Data from geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES) series were used to identify intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events occurred during the solar activity cycle no. 23. We retrieved O₃, NO, NO₂, HNO₃, OH, HCl and OHCl profiles coming from different satellite sensors (solar occultation and limb emission) and we looked for the mesospheric/stratospheric response to SEPs at high terrestrial latitudes. The chemistry of the minor atmospheric components is analysed to evaluate the associated odd nitrogen (NO_x) and odd hydrogen (HO_x) production, able to cause short (h) and medium (days) term ozone variations. We investigated the effects of SEPs on the polar atmosphere in three different seasons, i.e., January 2005, April 2002 and July 2000. The inter-hemispheric variability of the ozone, induced by the SEP series of January 2005, has been compared with the effects connected both to larger and quite similar events. We found that during SEP events: (i) solar illumination is the key factor driving SEP-induced effects on the chemistry of the polar atmosphere; (ii) even events with limited particle flux in the range 15–40 MeV are able to change the abundance of the minor constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere.     

On the correlation of the solar wind observed at the L5 point and at the Earth

The L5 point is a promising location for forecasting co-rotating high-speed streams in the solar wind arriving at the Earth. We correlated the solar wind data obtained by the Nozomi spacecraft in interplanetary space and by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) at the L1 point, and found that the correlation is significantly improved from that of the 27-day recurrence of ACE data. Based on the correlation between the two spacecraft observations, we estimated the correlation of the solar wind velocity between the L5 point and at the Earth, and found that the correlation coefficient was about 0.78 in late 1999, while that of the 27-day recurrence was 0.51. Eighty-eight percent of the velocity difference falls within 100 km/s between the L5 point and the Earth. This demonstrates the potential capability of solar wind monitoring at the L5 point to forecast the geomagnetic disturbances 4.5 days in advance.     

Experimental data and analysis of the October 2003 Forbush decrease

On October 28, 2003 an Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed from SOHO/LASCO imagery in conjunction with an X17 solar flare. The CME, traveling at nearly 2000 km/s, impacted the Earth on October 29, 2003 causing ground-based particle detectors to register a counting rate drop known as a Forbush decrease. The CME was not only responsible for affecting the rate of cosmic rays, but also caused anisotropies in their direction of incidence. Data from Project GRAND, an array of proportional wire chambers which detects secondary muons, are presented during the time of this Forbush decrease.     

New flare model using recent measurements of the solar ultraviolet irradiance

The solar photon output from the Sun, which was once thought to be constant, varies considerably over time scales from seconds during solar flares to years due to the solar cycle. This is especially true in the wavelengths shorter than 190 nm. These variations cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environment on similar time scales, which then affects many things including satellite drag, radio communications, atmospheric densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions of Earth and other planets, as well as the accuracy in the Global Positioning System (GPS). The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model that estimates the solar irradiance at wavelengths from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm resolution with a time cadence of 60 s. This is a high enough temporal resolution to model variations due to solar flares, for which few accurate measurements at these wavelengths exist. This model also captures variations on the longer time scales of solar rotation (days) and solar cycle (years). Daily average proxies used are the 0–4 nm irradiance, the Mg II c/w, F10.7, as well as the 1 nm bins centered at 30.5 nm, 121.5 (Lyman Alpha), and 36.5 nm. The GOES 0.1–0.8 nm irradiance is used as the flare proxy. The FISM algorithms are given, and results and comparisons are shown that demonstrate the FISM estimations agree within the stated uncertainties to the various measurements of the solar Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) irradiance.     

Cosmic radiation exposure of aircraft occupants on simulated high-latitude flights during solar proton events from 1 January 1986 through 1 January 2008

From 1 January 1986 through 1 January 2008, GOES satellites recorded 170 solar proton events. For 169 of these events, we estimated effective and equivalent dose rates and doses of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar cosmic radiation (SCR), received by aircraft occupants on simulated high-latitude flights. Dose rate and dose estimates that follow are for altitudes 30, 40, 50, and 60 kft, in that order.     

The potential of Meudon spectroheliograph for investigating long term solar activity and variability

Observations of the chromosphere with Deslandres’s spectroheliograph started at Paris Observatory in 1893 and were followed by systematic observations at Meudon since 1908. The solar collection of H$\alpha$ and CaII K images is probably the longest available worldwide, with associated products such as synoptic maps and tables. Since 2018, Meudon spectroheliograph is the only instrument producing data-cubes of full line profiles of CaII H, CaII K and H$\alpha$, for each pixel of the solar disk. Slices of the cubes provide monochromatic images. We summarize in this paper the capabilities of the successive generations of the instrument, and explore the potential of the collection and products for analysis of rare events, investigations of past solar activity and studies of long term variability.     

Impact of geomagnetic variation over sub-auroral ionospheric region during high solar activity year 2014

The present work is an attempt to evaluate the impact of changing space weather condition over sub-auroral ionosphere during high solar activity year 2014. In view of this, the GPS based TEC along with Ionosonde data over Indian permanent scientific base “Maitri”, Antarctica (70°46′00″S, 11°43′56″E) has been utilized. The results suggested that the nature of ionospheric responses to the geomagnetic disturbances not only depended upon the status of high latitudinal electro-dynamic processes but also influenced by the seasonal variations. The results revel both negative and positive type of ionospheric response in a single year but during different seasons. The study suggested that the combination of equator-ward plasma transportation along with ionospheric compositional changes causes a negative ionospheric impact especially during summer and equinox seasons. However, the combination of pole-ward contraction of the oval region along with particle precipitation may lead to exhibit positive ionospheric response during the winter season. The plasma transportation direction has been validated with the help of convection boundary (HM boundary) deduced with the help of SuperDARN observations. The ground based ionosonde observations clearly provided the evidence of deep penetration of high energetic particles up to the E-layer heights which results a sudden and strong appearance of E-layer. The strengthening of E-layer is responsible for modification of auroral electrojet and field-aligned current system. Also, the sudden appearance of E-layer along with a decrease in F-layer electron density suggested the dominance of NO⁺ over O⁺ in a considered region under geomagnetic disturbed condition.     

The GPS measured SITEC caused by the very intense solar flare on July 14, 2000

This work studies the sudden increases in total electron content of the ionosphere caused by the very intense solar flare on July 14, 2000. Total electron content (TEC) data observed from a Global Positioning System (GPS) network are used to calculate the flare-induced TEC increment, δTEC_f, and variation rate, dTEC_f/dt. It is found that both dTEC_f/dt and δTEC_f are closely related with the solar zenith angles. To explain the observation results, we derived a simple relationship between the partial derivative of the flare-induced TEC, ∂TEC_f/∂t, which is a good approximation for dTEC_f/dt, and the solar zenith angle χ, as well as the effective flare radiation flux I_f, according to the well-known Chapman theory of ionization. The derived formula predicted that ∂TEC_f/∂t is proportional to I_f and inverse proportional to Chapman function ch(χ). This theoretical prediction not only explains the correlation of dTEC_f/dt and δTEC_f with χ as shown in our TEC observation, but also gives a way to deduce I_f from TEC observation of GPS network. Thus, the present work shows that GPS observation is a powerful tool in the observation and investigation of solar flare effects on the ionosphere, i.e., the sudden ionospheric disturbances, which is a significant phenomenon of space weather.     

The hydroxyl radical as an indicator of SEP fluxes in the high-latitude terrestrial atmosphere

The low background values at nighttime of the mesospheric hydroxyl (OH) radical make it easier to single out the atmospheric response to the external solar forcing in Polar Regions. Because of the short lifetime of HO_x, it is possible to follow the trails of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in the terrestrial atmosphere, as shown by Storini and Damiani (2008). The sensitivity of this indicator makes discernible not only extreme particle events with a flux peak of several thousand pfu [1 pfu = 1 particle/(cm² s sr)] at energies >10 MeV, but also those with lower flux up to about 300 pfu. Using data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on board the EOS AURA satellite, we examined the correlation of OH abundance vs. solar proton flux for almost all the identified SEP events spanning from November 2004 to December 2006 (later on no more SEP events occurred during Solar Cycle no. 23). The channels at energies greater than 5 MeV and 10 MeV showed the best correlation values (r ∼ 0.90–0.95) at altitudes around 65–75 km whereas, as expected, the most energetic channels were most highly correlated at lower altitudes. Therefore, it is reasonably possible to estimate the solar proton flux from values of mesospheric OH (and viceversa) and it could be useful in studying periods with gaps in the records of solar particles.     

On the practical exploitation of perturbative effects in low Earth orbit for space debris mitigation

This paper presents the results of a numerical evaluation of the natural lifetime reduction in low Earth orbit, due to dynamical perturbations. The study considers two values for the area-to-mass ratio, a nominal ratio which resembles a typical value of spacecraft in orbit today, and an enhanced ratio which covers the surface augmentation. The results were obtained with two orbit propagators, one of a semi-analytical nature and the second one using non-averaged equations of motion. The simulations for both propagators were set up similarly to allow comparison. They both use the solar radiation pressure and the secular terms of the geopotential ($J_2,J_4$ and $J_6$). The atmospheric drag was turned on and off in both propagators to alternatively study the eccentricity build up and the residual lifetime. The non-averaging case also covers a validation with the full 6?×?6 geopotential. The results confirm the findings in previous publications, that is, the possibility for de-orbiting from altitudes above the residual atmosphere if a solar sail is deployed at the end-of-life, due to the combined effect of solar radiation pressure and the oblateness of the Earth. At near polar inclinations, shadowing effects can be exploited to the same end. The results obtained with the full, non-averaging propagator revealed additional de-orbiting corridors associated with solar radiation pressure which were not found by previous work on space debris mitigation. The results of both tools are compared for specific initial conditions. For nominal values of area-to-mass ratio, instead, it is confirmed that this resonance effect is negligible.The paper then puts the findings in the perspective of the current satellite catalogue. It identifies space missions which are currently close to a resonance corridor and shows the orbit evolution within the resonances with a significantly shorter residual orbital lifetime. The paper finishes with a discussion on the exploitation of these effects with regards to the long-term simulation of the space debris environment and a flux and collision probability comparison.     

Coronal radio-sounding detection of a CME during the 1997 Galileo solar conjunction

Frequency fluctuations of the Galileo S-band radio signal were recorded nearly continuously during the spacecraft’s solar conjunction from December 1996 to February 1997. A strong propagating disturbance, most probably associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), was detected on 7 February when the radio ray path proximate point was on the west solar limb at about 54 solar radii from the Sun. The CME passage through the line of sight is characterized by a significant increase in the fluctuation intensity of the recorded frequency and by an increase in the plasma speed from about 234 km s⁻¹ up to about 755 km s⁻¹. These velocity estimates are obtained from a correlation analysis of frequency fluctuations recorded simultaneously at two widely-separated ground stations. The density turbulence power spectrum is found to steepen behind the CME front. The Galileo radio-sounding data are compared with SOHO/LASCO observations of the CME in the corona and with WIND spacecraft data near the Earth’s orbit.     

Flight safety implications of the extreme solar proton event of 23 February 1956

There is considerable speculation about the effects at aircraft altitudes resulting from extreme solar proton events. The ground level event (GLE) of 23 February 1956 (GLE 5), remains the largest solar proton event of the neutron monitor era in terms of its influence on count rates at monitors near sea level. During this GLE the count rate was increased by as much as 4760% (15-min average) at the Leeds monitor relative to the count rate from galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). Two modern models of the event cumulative solar proton spectrum for this event, a 6-parameter fit in energy and a 4-parameter Band fit in rigidity, are compared with 1-h of GCR at solar minimum. While effective doses calculated with CARI-7A for both models at low geomagnetic cutoff rigidities are indeed high when compared with GCR and can exceed recommended exposure limits, both GLE spectra exhibit a much stronger dependence on cutoff rigidity than GCR, and a larger fraction of the dose from neutrons. At locations with cutoff rigidities above 4.2 and 6.4?GV, respectively, the GLE effective doses are smaller than the GCR hourly dose. At locations with cutoff rigidities above about 4?GV, GCR was the dominant source of exposure in 10?h or less at all altitudes examined. This suggests that if a similar event occurs in the future, low- and mid-latitude flights at modern jet flight altitudes could be well-protected by Earth’s magnetic field.     

Midlatitude ionospheric F2-layer response to eruptive solar events-caused geomagnetic disturbances over Hungary during the maximum of the solar cycle 24: A case study

In our study we analyze and compare the response and behavior of the ionospheric F2 and of the sporadic E-layer during three strong (i.e., Dst?<??100nT) individual geomagnetic storms from years 2012, 2013 and 2015, winter time period. The data was provided by the state-of the art digital ionosonde of the Széchenyi István Geophysical Observatory located at midlatitude, Nagycenk, Hungary (IAGA code: NCK, geomagnetic latitude: 46.17° geomagnetic longitude: 98.85°). The local time of the sudden commencement (SC) was used to characterize the type of the ionospheric storm (after Mendillo and Narvaez, 2010). This way two regular positive phase (RPP) ionospheric storms and one no-positive phase (NPP) storm have been analyzed. In all three cases a significant increase in electron density of the foF2 layer can be observed at dawn/early morning (around 6:00 UT, 07:00 LT). Also we can observe the fade-out of the ionospheric layers at night during the geomagnetically disturbed time periods. Our results suggest that the fade-out effect is not connected to the occurrence of the sporadic E-layers.     

Effect of solar activity on the repetitiveness of some meteorological phenomena

In this paper we research the relationship between solar activity and the weather on Earth. This research is based on the assumption that every ejection of magnetic field energy and particles from the Sun (also known as Solar wind) has direct effects on the Earth’s weather. The impact of coronal holes and active regions on cold air advection (cold fronts, precipitation, and temperature decrease on the surface and higher layers) in the Belgrade region (Serbia) was analyzed. Some active regions and coronal holes appear to be in a geo-effective position nearly every 27 days, which is the duration of a solar rotation. A similar period of repetitiveness (27–29 days) of the passage of the cold front, and maximum and minimum temperatures measured at surface and at levels of 850 and 500 hPa were detected. We found that 10–12 days after Solar wind velocity starts significantly increasing, we could expect the passage of a cold front. After eight days, the maximum temperatures in the Belgrade region are measured, and it was found that their minimum values appear after 12–16 days. The maximum amount of precipitation occurs 14 days after Solar wind is observed. A recurring period of nearly 27 days of different phases of development for hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma was found. This analysis confirmed that the intervals of time between two occurrences of some particular meteorological parameter correlate well with Solar wind and A index.     

Study of the 28 October 2003 and 20 January 2005 solar flares by means of 2.223 MeV gamma-emission line

By the data on intensity-time profiles of the neutron capture line of 2.223 MeV we have studied some characteristics of two solar flares, 28 October 2003 and 20 January 2005 (INTEGRAL and CORONAS-F observations, respectively). The SINP code was applied making allowance for the main processes of neutron interactions and deceleration in the solar plasma, character of neutron source, losses of neutrons and density model of the solar atmosphere. Comparison of the computed time profiles of 2.223 MeV line with observed ones for the flare of 28 October 2003 confirms the results obtained earlier for three other flares. Namely, the effect of density enhancement (EDE) in the sub-flare region, as well as the variations (hardening) of accelerated particle spectrum in the course of the event have been confirmed. The usual modeling procedure by the SINP code, however, seems to be inapplicable to the event of 20 January 2005. Possible causes of density enhancements during some flares and peculiarities of the 20 January 2005 flare are discussed.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

Different space weather effects in anomalies of the high and low orbital satellites

Preliminary results of the EU INTAS Project 00810, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecraft. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluences of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.