Evolution of the orbital elements for objects with high area-to-mass ratios in geostationary transfer orbits

A new population of uncatalogued objects in geosynchronous Earth orbits (GEO), with a mean motion of about 1 rev/day and eccentricities up to 0.6, has been identified recently. The first observations of this new type of objects were acquired in the framework of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) search for space debris in GEO and the geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) using the ESA 1-m telescope on Tenerife. Earlier studies have postulated that the perturbations due to the solar radiation pressure can lead to such large eccentricities for GEO objects with a high area-to-mass ratio (A/M). The simulations showed that the eccentricities of GEO objects with large A/M exhibit periodic variations with periods of about one year and amplitudes depending on the value of A/M. The findings of these studies could be confirmed by observations from the ESA 1-m telescope on Tenerife.     

Orbit improvement for GTO objects using follow-up observations

The Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern was and is conducting several search campaigns for space debris in the geostationary ring (GEO) and the geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). First tests to build up a catalogue of satellites and space debris were performed recently. As the discovery observations of an object usually cover a time interval of a few minutes only, the first orbits determined are assumed to be circular. For GEO objects a circular orbit is a rather good approximation. This is certainly not the case for GTO objects. Nevertheless, a circular orbit seems to be an acceptable approximation for a short time interval around the observations. The first orbits can be used to acquire follow-up observations, which allow the determination of elliptical orbits. The maximum allowed time span between the detection and the follow-up for a successful recovery is found using simulated GTO orbits and observations. Further follow-up observations are simulated in order to study the orbit improvement process and the required force model. The accuracy of orbits needed to build up a catalogue is studied. The simulations are compared to the results achieved with observations acquired by the 1 m telescope on Tenerife.     

Estimation of ballistic coefficients of low altitude debris objects from historical two line elements

This paper presents a new method for estimating ballistic coefficients (BCs) of low perigee debris objects from their historical two line elements (TLEs). The method uses the drag perturbation equation of the semi-major axis of the orbit. For an object with perigee altitude below 700 km, the variation in the mean semi-major axis derived from the TLE is mainly caused by the atmospheric drag effect, and therefore is used as the source in the estimation of the ballistic coefficient. The method is tested using the GRACE satellites, and a number of debris objects with external ballistic coefficient values, and agreements of about 10% are achieved.     

Fringe fitting and group delay determination for geodetic VLBI observations of DOR tones

Extracting the group and phase delays of interferometric observations produced in the Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) measurement concept requires a special fringe fitting and delay search algorithm for the recorded bandwidth. While fringe fitting is in use routinely for several megahertz wide channels in geodetic and astrometric VLBI with quasar observations, fringe fitting for artificial tones of very small bandwidth of artificial signals for Differential One-way Ranging (DOR) requires a different way of handling. In a project called Observing the Chang’E-3 Lander with VLBI (OCEL), the DOR tones emitted by the Chang’E-3 lander were observed in a standard geodetic VLBI mode with 8 or 4?MHz wide channels to maintain compatibility with the corresponding quasar observations. For these observations, we modified the existing fringe fitting program of the Haystack Observatory Processing Software (HOPS), fourfit, to properly handle narrow band DOR tones. The main motivations are that through this modification, the data of quasars and artificial radio sources can be processed in the existing geodetic analysis pipeline, and that the algorithm can be used for similar projects as well. In this paper, we describe the algorithm and show that the new algorithm produces much more reliable group delay results than using the standard fourfit algorithm. This is done by a simulation test and in particular by processing of real observations. It is shown that in many cases, systematic deviations of several nanoseconds, which are seen with the standard fourfit algorithm, can be avoided. The ultimate benefit of the new procedure is demonstrated by reducing the errors in delay triangle closures by at least a factor of 3, which, in the OCEL case, is from ～300 to ～100?ps.     

Radio-faint BL Lac objects and their impact on the radio/gamma-ray connection

Radio and gamma-ray emissions in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) are both related to the presence of relativistic particles in jets. With the advent of the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), and thanks to its large sensitivity up to several GeV, many observational results are changing our understanding of these phenomena. BL Lac objects, which made up only a fraction of the known extragalactic gamma-ray source population before Fermi, have now become the most abundant class. However, since they are relatively weak radio sources, most of them are poorly known as far as their parsec scale structure and multi-wavelength properties are concerned. For this reason, we have selected a complete sample of 42 low redshift BL Lacs (independently of their gamma-ray properties) to study with a multi-wavelength (radio, optical, X-ray, gamma-ray) approach. Here, we present results and images of sources in the sample (most of which have never been observed before), using new VLBA observations at 8 and 15 GHz. Beyond this sample of BL Lacs, the population of gamma-ray AGNs has also dramatically enlarged in the Fermi era, permitting us to discuss the presence of a correlation between radio and gamma-ray properties with improved statistical significance. We explore the radio-gamma relation with several hundreds sources and using both simultaneous and archival radio data, thus tackling the impact of time variability.     

Explicit expression of collision probability in terms of RSW and NTW components of relative position

The existing analytical and numerical computing methods for collision probability (P_c) provide sufficiently accurate results, but do not reveal the direct connection between P_c and conjunction geometry or error covariance. This paper derived an explicit expression of P_c under the circular orbit assumption, based on analysis of closest approach distance and Chan’s analytical formulae for P_c. The P_c was expressed as an explicit function of the radial, in-track, cross-track components of relative position and error covariance. The explicit expression is simple and compact, relates P_c with components of relative position, which are two kinds of important conjunction risk criteria. By introducing non-zero flight-path angle and ratio of velocity’s magnitude, a modified expression of P_c was presented for objects in eccentric orbits. For objects with eccentricity less than 0.01 (which account for 62% of all LEO objects), the relative error of the explicit expression is less than 0.107, or 0.252 for typical conjunction cases. What really matters in conjunction risk assessment is the order of magnitude rather than the specific value of P_c, the precision of the explicit expression is sufficient for conjunction risk assessment and decision-making for most LEO objects.     

On the source region of flux transfer events

We have examined the region of occurrence of flux transfer events for three distinct orientations of the interplanetary magnetic field: nearly horizontal in the solar magnetospheric equator, diagonally southward at 45° to the magnetospheric equator and nearly due south. For horizontal IMF conditions the FTE's occur in a horizontal band about ± 6 R_E wide. For diagonally southward IMF conditions, the FTE's occur in a diagonal swath about ± 6 R_E wide passing through the subsolar point. For duskward but nearly due southward IMF conditions, our observations reveal FTE's throughout the northern morning quadrant. These observations are consistent with a near equatorial source for flux transfer events and hence with component merging and not anti-parallel merging. These observations also help understand the energetic ion anisotropies seen in these events.     

Relationship of the diffuse aurora and SAR arc dynamics to substorms and storms

Investigation results of a diffuse aurora (DA) and stable auroral red (SAR) arc dynamics based on spectrophotometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (199°E geomagnetic longitude) are presented. The relationship of an equatorward extension of DA in the 557.7 nm emission to a substorm growth phase during the magnetospheric convection intensification after the turn of IMF B_Z to the south is shown. The formation of SAR arc during the substorm expansion phase is investigated. The association of SAR arc dynamics with the development of asymmetric ring current (substorm injection) during the main phase of a storm is analyzed. It is shown how the pulsating precipitations of energetic ring current particles develop in the outer plasmasphere based on photometric observations.     

Determining CME parameters by fitting heliospheric observations: Numerical investigation of the accuracy of the methods

Transients in the heliosphere, including coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and corotating interaction regions can be imaged to large heliocentric distances by heliospheric imagers (HIs), such as the HIs onboard STEREO and SMEI onboard Coriolis. These observations can be analyzed using different techniques to derive the CME speed and direction. In this paper, we use a three-dimensional (3-D) magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) numerical simulation to investigate one of these methods, the fitting method of  and . Because we use a 3-D simulation, we can determine with great accuracy the CME initial speed, its speed at 1 AU and its average transit speed as well as its size and direction of propagation. We are able to compare the results of the fitting method with the values from the simulation for different viewing angles between the CME direction of propagation and the Sun-spacecraft line. We focus on one simulation of a wide (120–140°) CME, whose initial speed is about 800 km s⁻¹. For this case, we find that the best-fit speed is in good agreement with the speed of the CME at 1 AU, and this, independently of the viewing angle. The fitted direction of propagation is not in good agreement with the viewing angle in the simulation, although smaller viewing angles result in smaller fitted directions. This is due to the extremely wide nature of the ejection. A new fitting method, proposed to take into account the CME width, results in better agreement between fitted and actual directions for directions close to the Sun–Earth line. For other directions, it gives results comparable to the fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999). The CME deceleration has only a small effect on the fitted direction, resulting in fitted values about 1–4° higher than the actual values.     

Identification of uncatalogued LEO space objects by a ground-based EO array

A ground-based electro-optical (EO) array, deployed at the Jilin Space Tracking Base of Changchun Observatory, China, has been in operation since April 2017. The array has 8 small telescopes, each has an aperture of 15 cm and a field of view of 14° × 14°. On average, the array can collect angles data over 3–4 thousand Very Short Arcs (VSAs) of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space objects each night. Correlation of the VSA angles data with the NORAD catalogue objects results in about 85% of all the VSAs being correlated to NORAD objects. The remaining 15% VSAs angles data could be supposed from uncatalogued objects. The Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) solutions of the VSAs with the range-search method and the association results of the IODs with the geometrical method are presented. The mean IOD success rate is about 91% and the True Positive (TP) rate is more than 86%. In addition, the classical Gauss, Laplace, Gooding and Double-r angles-only IOD methods are applied to process VSA angles data and their performance is assessed. The CBTA method is used to associate the IOD tracks and compared with the geometrical method. A set of procedures for identifying the uncatalogued objects based on the VSA angles data is designed. Processing of the VSA angles data from Aug 4 to Sep 30, 2017 reveals there are possibly 415 uncatalogued LEO objects.     

Obscured QSOs and the X-ray Background

The question of whether there exists a large population of dust obscured QSOs is currently very controversial. In favour of this hypothesis are models for the origin of the X-ray Background (XRB) and also the Unified Model of AGN which both invoke large populations of obscured QSOs. For example, Madau et al. (1994) suggest a population of QSOs with N_H ∼ 10²⁴ cm⁻² or A_V = 1000^m to improve the fit to the XRB between 1 < E < 100 keV. Arguments contradicting this theory include those of Boyle & di Matteo (1995) who claim that the tight X-ray/optical flux ratio relation for QSOs precludes the existence of a large population of objects obscured by significant amounts of intrinsic dust. Here, we follow Madau et al. (1994) and Comastri et al. (1995) to make fits to the XRB using obscured QSO populations and investigate whether selection effects may allow a tight distribution of X-ray/optical ratios to be maintained. We find that even for a flat distribution of absorbing columns, reasonable fits to the XRB can be obtained while both optical and X-ray absorption combine to produce the tight observed X-ray/optical correlation.     

Bidimensional spectroscopy of the solar chromosphere during the maximum year

Our program was based on simultaneous observations of the same solar region with the Universal Birefringent Filter (UBF) at the Vacuum Tower Telescope (VTT) and with the Big Dome BD Universal Spectrograph (USG). For the UBF images analysis we refer to the 13 June 1980 RG 2502/2511 (N12-E11) observations. Selected pictures present the line profiles for Hα, H_β, Mg-b₁ and Na-D₂ at some interesting “pixels” of the analyzed AR. We present the detailed photometric morphology of the observed active area and the longitudinal velocity field pattern. A comparison with the corresponding UVSP data is given.     

X-ray study of accretion flow in narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies

We present the results of a systematic study of narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies (NLS1s) observed with XMM-Newton. The 2–12 keV X-ray spectra of NLS1s are well represented by a single power law with a photon index Γ ∼ 2. When this hard power law continuum is extrapolated into the low energy band, we found that all objects in our sample show prominent soft excess emission. This excess emission is well parameterized by the thermal emission expected from an optically thick accretion disk, and we found the following three peculiar features: (1) The derived disk temperatures are significantly higher than the expectation from a standard Shakura-Sunyaev accretion disk, if we assume a central mass of a black hole to be 10^6–8M_⊙. (2) The temperatures are distributed within narrow range (ΔkT ∼ 0.08 keV) with an average temperature of 0.18 keV in spite of the range of four orders of magnitude in luminosity (10^41–45 erg s⁻¹). (3) We found a peculiar temperature–luminosity relation, where the luminosity seems to be almost saturated in spite of the significant change in temperature, during the observations of the most luminous NLS1 PKS 0558-504. These results strongly suggest that the standard accretion disk picture is no longer appropriate in the nuclei of NLS1s. We discuss a possible origin for the soft excess component, and suggest that a slim disk may be able to explain the observational results, if the photon trapping effect is properly taken into account.     

Uncertainties and effects on geocenter motion estimates from global GPS observations

Global positioning system (GPS) observations can be used to estimate the geocenter motion, but are subjected to large uncertainties and effects due to uneven distribution of GPS stations and high-degree aliasing errors. In this paper, uncertainties and effects on geocenter motion estimates from global GPS observations are investigated and assessed with different truncated degrees and selected GPS network distributions based on different plate motion models, including NUVEL-1A, MORVEL56 and ITRF08. Results show that the selected GPS stations have no big effects on geocenter motion estimates based on different plate motion models, while large uncertainties are found at annual and semi-annual components when using different truncated degrees. Correlations of geocenter motion estimates from selected GPS networks with GRACE and SLR are better with truncated degree 3, and higher truncated degrees will degrade geocenter estimates. Smaller RMS also shows better results with the truncated degree 3 and the NUVEL1A has the worse results because more GPS sites are eliminated. For annual signal with truncated degree 3, four GPS strategies can reduce annual amplitudes by about 29.2% in X, 5.6% in Y, and 27.9% in Z with respect to truncated degree 1. Annual phases of all GPS solutions from MORVEL56 and ITRF08 are almost close to the GRACE solution with truncated degrees from 3 to 10, while the semi-annual signals are relatively weaker for all cases.     

Where does the heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays start?

The long outstanding question of where the heliospheric (solar) modulation of galactic cosmic rays actually begins, in terms of spatial position, as well as at what high kinetic energy, can now be answered. Both answers are possible by using the results of an advanced numerical model, together with appropriate observations. Voyager 1 has been exploring the outskirts of the heliosphere and is presently entering what can be called the very local interstellar medium. It has been generally expected, and accepted, that once the heliopause is crossed, the local interstellar spectrum (LIS) should be measured in situ by the Voyager spacecraft. However, we show that this may not be the case and that modulation effects on galactic cosmic rays can persist well beyond the heliopause. For example, proton observations at 100 MeV close to the heliopause can be lower by ∼$\sim$25% to 40% than the LIS, depending on solar modulation conditions. It is also illustrated quantitatively that significant solar modulation diminishes above ∼$\sim$50 GeV at Earth. It is found that cosmic ray observations above this energy contain less that 5%$5\%$ solar modulation effects and should therefore reflect the LIS for galactic cosmic rays. Input spectra, in other words the very LIS, for solar modulation models are now constrained by in situ observations and can therefore not any longer be treated arbitrarily. It is also possible for the first time to determine the lower limit of the very LIS from a few MeV/nuc to very high energies.     

Zodiacal light and space observation of faint objects

Zodiacal light is examined as a “foreground noise” limiting the space photometry of faint objects. Emphasis is given to the ways of increasing the signal to noise ratio by an appropriate choice of observational epoch. In the case of the Space Telescope, predictions of average values of this ratio for the extreme faintness case V = 28 are derived from the expected performances announced by NASA and from the recent table of zodiacal brightnesses, as obtained from observations at Tenerife ([1], table 2).     

Modeling the ionospheric gradient by using VSS base functions and GPS data over Iran

The spatial and temporal variations of ionosphere play an important role in positioning and navigation by the space geodetic techniques. Therefore, the ionospheric gradient should be calculated, analyzed, and applied in both space and time. Spatial gradients of the ionosphere have remarkable delay on the propagation of electromagnetic waves. This study intends to propose a new method for simultaneous modeling of the spatial gradients of ionosphere and VTECs in the local scale for Iran. Vector Spherical Slepian (VSS) base functions are used for the development of this method.Five VSS models with the maximal degrees of L = 30, 35, 40, 45 and 50 are taken into account. For implementing the VSS method, 24 permanent GPS stations from the Iranian Permanent GPS Network (IPGN) have been used. The unknown coefficients are estimated with the observations of these stations with least squares technique. Four other stations are used for evaluating the accuracy of the models. Repeatability of baselines is the measure that is used for this purpose. Based on the results obtained, L = 40 is the optimum degree for the VSS model with this input data over Iran.The baselines’ repeatability showed that ionospheric gradients have more influence on the north–south component. Moreover, the spatial gradient is negligible in the east–west and up-down component when a short baseline is processed. In other words, this kind of ionospheric modeling has significant application for baseline, which is longer than 1000 km. In the study, proposed method has improved the long baselines' solution by more than 12%, 18% and 10% in east–west, north–south and up-down components, respectively.     

Bayesian linking of geosynchronous orbital debris tracks as seen by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

We describe a Bayesian sampling model for linking and constraining orbit models from angular observations of “streaks” in optical telescope images. Our algorithm is particularly suited to situations where the observation times are small fractions of the orbital periods of the observed objects or when there is significant confusion of objects in the observation field. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of multiple orbit models (up to the number of observed tracks) and parameters describing which tracks are linked with which orbit models. Using this algorithm, we forecast the constraints on geosynchronous (GEO) debris orbits achievable with the planned Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). Because of the short 15 s exposure times, preliminary orbit determinations of GEO objects from LSST will have large and degenerate errors on the orbital elements. Combined with the expected crowded fields of GEO debris it will be challenging to reliably link orbital tracks in LSST observations given the currently planned observing cadence.     

Evaluation of substorm models with Cluster observations of plasma flow reversal in the magnetotail

We evaluate two prevailing substorm models with an event of plasma flow reversal from tailward to Earthward detected by Cluster at the downstream distance of ∼19 R_E in the magnetotail during a substorm on August 22, 2001. We use the unique capability of Cluster measurements in determining gradients to examine the associated current density, Lorentz force, and current dissipation/dynamo term. In association with plasma flow reversal, it is found that (1) there was no clear quadrupole magnetic perturbation signature, (2) the x-component of the Lorentz force did not change sign, (3) the y-component of the product of the current density and the electric field was occasionally negative indicative of a dynamo effect, and (4) the timing sequence of flow reversal from the Cluster configuration did not match tailward motion of a single plasma flow source. These observations are consistent with the near-Earth initiation model for substorms with multiple current disruption sites moving progressively tailward near the late stage of substorm expansion.     

A Partially Orthogonal EnKF approach to atmospheric density estimation using orbital debris

A key requirement for accurate trajectory prediction and space situational awareness is knowledge of how non-conservative forces affect space object motion. These forces vary temporally and spatially, and are driven by the underlying behavior of space weather particularly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Existing trajectory prediction algorithms adjust space weather models based on calibration satellite observations. However, lack of sufficient data and mismodeling of non-conservative forces cause inaccuracies in space object motion prediction, especially for uncontrolled debris objects. The uncontrolled nature of debris objects makes them particularly sensitive to the variations in space weather. Our research takes advantage of this behavior by utilizing observations of debris objects to infer the space environment parameters influencing their motion.The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to utilize debris objects as passive, indirect sensors of the space environment. We focus on estimating atmospheric density and its spatial variability to allow for more precise prediction of LEO object motion. The estimated density is parameterized as a grid of values, distributed by latitude and local sidereal time over a spherical shell encompassing Earth at a fixed altitude of 400 km. The position and velocity of each debris object are also estimated. A Partially Orthogonal Ensemble Kalman Filter (POEnKF) is used for assimilation of space object measurements to estimate density.For performance comparison, the scenario characteristics (number of objects, measurement cadence, etc.) are based on a sensor tasking campaign executed for the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model project. The POEnKF analysis details spatial comparisons between the true and estimated density fields, and quantifies the improved accuracy in debris object motion predictions due to more accurate drag force models from density estimates. It is shown that there is an advantage to utilizing multiple debris objects instead of just one object. Although the work presented here explores the POEnKF performance when using information from only 16 debris objects, the research vision is to utilize information from all routinely observed debris objects. Overall, the filter demonstrates the ability to estimate density to within a threshold of accuracy dependent on measurement/sensor error. In the case of a geomagnetic storm, the filter is able to track the storm and provide more accurate density estimates than would be achieved using a simple exponential atmospheric density model or MSIS Atmospheric Model (when calm conditions are assumed).