Cosmic-Ray Modulation in the Heliosphere A Phenomenological Study

The heliospheric cosmic-ray network–Pioneer 10/11, Voyager 1/2, Ulysses and IMP 8 have provided detailed observations of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays over a period of time that now exceeds 25 years and extends to heliocentric distances beyond 65 AU. These data, when compared over consecutive 11 year solar cycles, clearly establishes the existence of a 22-year cosmic ray modulation cycle that is dominated by the 11-year solar activity cycle but is strongly influenced by gradient and curvature drifts in association with the tilt of the heliospheric neutral current sheet as well as the mediation of the enhanced magnetic turbulence above the solar poles. Over successive solar minima these effects manifest themselves in the remarkable differences in the energetic particle time histories, in the magnitude and sign of the radial and latitudinal intensity gradients and in the changes in the energy spectra of anomalous cosmic rays as a function of heliocentric distance.From solar minimum to solar maximum the long term modulation is principally a combination of two solar related phenomena, the cumulative effect of long-lived global merged interaction regions (GMIRs) and gradient and curvature drifts in the interplanetary magnetic field. For the periods when positive ions flow in over the solar poles and out along the heliospheric current sheet, the modulation of ions is dominated by GMIRs. When this flow pattern is reversed it is found that drifts are an important but not dominant factor for cosmic ray modulation with the current sheet related drift effects decreasing with increasing rigidity R, heliolatitude and heliocentric distance. Over a single solar cycle these conclusions are confirmed at 1 AU by comparing the relative modulation of cosmic-ray helium nuclei and electrons.     

Time-Dependent 2d Model Compared with Observations During the 1974 Mini Cycle

The 1974 mini-cycle is a medium term cosmic ray modulation event with about one year duration. It occurred in an A>0 epoch of solar magnetic polarity during conditions of low activity, but with an increase in the latitudinal extent of the heliospheric current sheet (tilt angle α) and the magnitude B of the heliospheric magnetic field. This cosmic ray decrease can be used to test the hypothesis that such large scale decreases (mini cycles) may be caused primarily by a combination of changes in α and B. For this purpose a fully time-dependent 2D model of solar modulation is used, which includes the effects of global and current sheet drifts, and anisotropic perpendicular diffusion. Such models have been used successfully to describe the proton energy spectrum as well as the radial and latitudinal gradients near 1 AU. Comparison of the model solutions with the observed decrease for 1.8 GV protons allows us to study the combined influence of variable drift and diffusion effects throughout the event. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Inner Heliosphere - Outer Heliosphere Comparison for Cosmic Ray Modulation

This paper summarizes cosmic ray data on both galactic and anomalous particles in the inner and outer heliosphere near the sunspot minimum in 1995 and 1996 at the end of solar cycle 22. These data come from the IMP spacecraft in the inner heliosphere and the Voyager and Pioneer spacecraft in the outer heliosphere. In the inner heliosphere, the cosmic ray intensities at all energies in 1996 have recovered to almost the same maximum values they had at the last sunspot minimum in 1987 and the intensities are an even closer match to those observed two 11-year cycles earlier in 1976. In the outer heliosphere beyond 40 AU the intensity recovery is very slow and the intensities at all energies and for all species are almost constant in 1995-96 indicating that little further recovery can be expected in this cycle. The intensity of galactic cosmic rays in 1996 is only 0.3-0.5 of that observed at the same radius of 42 AU in 1987 and for anomalous cosmic rays this ratio is only 0.1-0.2. This suggests a dramatically different entry of particles into the heliosphere in the two cycles for both types of particles as well as significantly different particle flow characteristics in the outer heliosphere. The net result of these different characteristics is that near the Earth only a relatively small intensity difference is observed between successive 11-year solar cycles whereas in the outer heliosphere the differences between cycles become very large and may even dominate the overall modulation.     

Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift at such times. In 2009, the ～2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by ～5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (～20° vs. ～14°), while solar wind B was significantly lower (～3.9 nT vs. ～5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including post-shock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the ～1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent ¹⁰Be-based reconstruction covering the past ～10⁴ years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to ?0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Spörer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of ～2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30–40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.     

The Influence of Tilt Angle and Magnetic Field Variations on Cosmic ray Modulation

The maximum inclination of the heliospheric current sheet (the tilt angle) and the magnitude B of the heliospheric magnetic field are often used to characterize cosmic ray (CR) modulation. The relevance of B is likely to be the coupling of the interplanetary diffusion coefficients K to the field magnitude in a relation K∝B ⁻ⁿ. In this paper we study the coupled influence of tilt angle and magnetic field variations on the modulation of cosmic rays at neutron monitor energies for the 1974 mini-cycle and for the onsets of solar cycles 21, 22, and 23. It is suggested that for A>0 polarity epochs, the sensitivity of the CR response to variations in B is partly controlled by the size of the tilt angle, α. The onsets of cycles 21 and 23 exhibit differences, related to phase differences in these parameters. A simple model is used to predict the CR response to variations in B. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Polar rain entry of galactic electrons into the inner heliosphere?

The understanding of the relative intensity variations in cosmic ray ions and electrons with respect to solar modulation is a grand challenge for cosmic ray modulation theory. Although effects of the heliospheric neutral sheet, gradient-curvature drifts, and merged interaction regions provide qualitative explanations for observed solar cycle variations of high energy protons and ions, these effects do not account for the anomalously high intensities of high energy galactic electrons at 22-year intervals of the solar magnetic solar cycle. From the similar modulation responses of protons and heavy ions it does not appear that cosmic ray pressure effects, dominated by protons, can account for the chargesign asymmetry of cosmic ray modulation. External factors including modulation in the heliosheath and polar linkage to the interstellar magnetic field are examined as potential causes of symmetry breaking for electron modulation with respect to the solar magnetic polarity at solar minimum.     

On the off-ecliptic distributions of anomalous cosmic rays and their relation to the large-scale geometry of the heliospheric shock

The scenario explaining the origin of the anomalous component of cosmic rays (ACR) implies a close relation between these high energy particles and the solar wind termination shock representing their main acceleration region. Consequently, one should expect the ACR distributions in the heliosphere to reflect some information about the structure as well as the large-scale geometry of the shock. We study the influence of a non-spherically symmetric heliospheric shock on the off-ecliptic — i.e. high latitude — ACR distributions using a two-dimensional model including their anisotropic diffusion and drift in the heliospheric magnetic field as well as a solar wind flow dependent on the heliographic latitude. The model calculations are used to investigate the probability of a possible polar elongation of the heliospheric shock from observations of the distributions of the ACR at high latitudes during solar minimum conditions.     

High energy cosmic ray nuclei results on Ulysses: 1. Mission overview

The cosmic ray flux observed with the Kiel Electron Telescope on board the ULYSSES spaceprobe varies with solar activity as well as with heliospheric position. Determination of the latitudinal gradients requires a careful analysis of the influences of the current sheet tilt angle, the number of major solar flares, interplanetary shocks and interaction regions evolving in the expanding solar wind. In this paper we concentrate on nuclei with rigidity above 1 GV. We discuss the effects of the variable solar activity in the declining phase of the present solar cycle and the variation with radial distance as a basis for separating latitudinal effects. We show that during this phase of the solar cycle modulation of GV nuclei is ordered by temporal evolution, radial distance and negligible latitudinal effects even at latitudes between 30° and 50° South.     

Voyager Observations of the Magnetic Field in the Distant Heliosphere

The latitudinal structure of the heliospheric magnetic field during much of the solar cycle is determined by a "sector zone", in which both positive and negative magnetic polarities are observed, and by the unipolar regions above and below the sector zone. Distinct corotating streams and interactions regions are found primarily in the sector zone during the declining phase of the solar cycle. Within a few AU, the streams and interaction regions are distinct and are related to solar features. A restructuring of the solar wind occurs between 1 AU and 15 AU, in which the isolated streams, interaction regions and shocks merge to form compound streams and merged interaction regions ("MIRs"). Memory of the source conditions is lost in this process. In the region between 30 AU and the termination shock (the "distant heliosphere"), the pressure of interstellar pickup protons dominates that of the magnetic field and solar wind particles and largely controls the dynamical processes. During 1983 and 1994, corotating streams and corotating interaction regions were observed at 1 AU. Merged interaction regions were observed at 15 AU in 1983, but not at 45 AU during 1994. This result suggests a further restructuring of the solar wind in the distant heliosphere, but variations from one solar cycle to the next might also contribute to the result. Approaching solar minimum in 1996, the latitudinal extent of the sector zone decreased, and Voyager 2 gradually entered the unipolar region below it. The speed was lower in the sector zone than below it. At Voyagers 1 and 2, the change in cosmic ray intensity is related to the magnetic field strength during each year from 1983 through 1996. The magnetic field strength has a multifractal distribution throughout the heliosphere. This fundamental symmetry of the heliosphere has not been incorporated explicitly in cosmic ray propagation models.     

Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays at Solar Minimum

Cosmic ray particles respond to the heliospheric magnetic field in the expanding solar wind and its turbulence and therefore provide a unique probe for conditions in the changing heliosphere. During the last four years, concentrated around the solar minimum period of solar cycle 22, the exploration of the solar polar regions by the joint ESA/NASA mission Ulysses revealed the three-dimensional behavior of cosmic rays in the inner and middle heliosphere. Also during the last decades, the Pioneer and Voyager missions have greatly expanded our understanding of the structure and extent of the outer heliosphere. Simultaneously, numerical models describing the propagation of galactic cosmic rays are becoming sophisticated tools for interpreting and understanding these observations. We give an introduction to the subject of the modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere during solar minimum. The modulation effects on cosmic rays of corotating interaction regions and their successors in the outer heliosphere are discussed in more detail by Gazis, McDonald et al. (1999) and McKibben, Jokipii et al. (1999) in this volume. Cosmic-ray observations from the Ulysses spacecraft at high heliographic latitudes are also described extensively in this volume by Kunow, Lee et al. (1999). This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar and Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The significance of external influences on the environment of Earth and its atmosphere has become evident during recent years. Especially, on time scales of several hundred years, the cosmogenic isotope concentration during the Wolf-, Spoerer-, Maunder- and Dalton-Minimum indicates an increased cosmic ray flux. Because these grand minima of solar activity coincide with cold periods, a correlation of the Earth climate with the cosmic ray intensities is plausible. Any quantitative study of the effects of energetic particles on the atmosphere and environment of the Earth must address their transport to Earth and their interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere including their filtering by the terrestrial magnetosphere. The first problem is one of the fundamental problems in modern cosmic ray astrophysics, and corresponding studies began in the 1960s based on Parker’s cosmic ray modulation theory taking into account diffusion, convection, adiabatic deceleration, and (later) the drift of energetic particles in the global heliospheric magnetic field. It is well established that all of these processes determining the modulation of cosmic rays are depending on parameters that are varying with the solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, the galactic cosmic ray intensities close to Earth is the result of a complex modulation of the interstellar galactic spectrum within the heliosphere. The modern view of this cosmic ray modulation is summarized in our contribution.     

Composition of Anomalous Cosmic Rays

The “classic” anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) component originates as interstellar neutral atoms that drift into the heliosphere, become ionized and picked up by the solar wind, and carried to the outer heliosphere where the pickup ions are accelerated to hundreds of MeV, presumably at the solar wind termination shock. These interstellar ACRs are predominantly singly charged, although higher charge states are present and become dominant above ～350 MeV. Their isotopic composition is like that of the solar system and unlike that of the source of galactic cosmic rays. A comparison of their energy spectra with the estimated flux of pickup ions flowing into the termination shock reveals a mass-dependent acceleration efficiency that favors heavier ions. There is also a heliospheric ACR component as evidenced by “minor” ACR ions, such as Na, Mg, S, and Si that appear to be singly-ionized ions from a source likely in the outer heliosphere.     

Muon Observations

Muon observations are complementary to neutron monitor observations but there are some important differences in the two techniques. Unlike neutron monitors, muon telescope systems use coincidence techniques to obtain directional information about the arriving particle. Neutron monitor observations require simple corrections for pressure variations to compensate for the varying mass of atmospheric absorber over a site. In contrast, muon observations require additional corrections for the positive and negative temperature effects. Muon observations commenced many years before neutron monitors were constructed. Thus, muon data over a larger number of solar cycles is available to study solar modulation on anisotropies and other cosmic ray variations. The solar diurnal and semi-diurnal variations have been studied for many years. Using the techniques of Bieber and Chen it has been possible to derive the radial gradient, parallel mean-free path and symmetric latitude gradient of cosmic rays for rigidities <200 GV. The radial gradient varies with the 11-year solar activity cycle whereas the parallel mean-free path appears to vary with the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. The symmetric latitudinal gradient reverses at each solar polarity reversal. These results are in general agreement with predictions from modulation models. In undertaking these analyses the ratio of the parallel to perpendicular mean-free path must be assumed. There is strong contention in the literature about the correct value to employ but the results are sufficiently robust for this to be, at most, a minor problem. An asymmetric latitude gradient of highly variable nature has been found. These observations do not support current modulation models. Our view of the sidereal variation has undergone a revolution in recent times. Nagashima, Fujimoto and Jacklyn proposed a narrow Tail-In source anisotropy and separate Loss-Cone anisotropy as being responsible for the observed variations. A new analysis technique, more amenable to such structures, was developed by Japanese and Australian researchers. They confirmed the existence of the two anisotropies. However, they found that the Tail-In anisotropy is asymmetric and that both anisotropies had different positions from the prediction. Most 27-day modulations are observed at neutron monitor rigidities but not so readily at higher rigidities. An exception to this is the Isotropic Intensity Wave modulation observed in the early 1980s and again in 1991. This modulation is very strongly related to the heliospheric sector structure and implies a significantly different cosmic ray density on either side of the neutral sheet. The interpretation of most cosmic ray modulation phenomena requires good latitude coverage in both hemispheres. The closure of many muon observatories is a matter of concern. In the northern hemisphere a few new instruments are being constructed and spatial coverage is barely adequate. In the southern hemisphere the situation is far worse with the possibility that within a decade only the Mawson observatory in Antarctica will still be in operation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The isotopic composition of anomalous cosmic rays from sampex

Measurements of the anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) isotopic composition have been made in three regions of the magnetosphere accessible from the polar Earth orbit of SAMPEX, including the interplanetary medium at high latitudes and geomagnetically trapped ACRs. At those latitudes where ACRs can penetrate the Earth's magnetic field while fully stripped galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) of similar energies are excluded, a pure ACR sample is observed to have the following composition: ¹⁵N/N < 0.023, ¹⁸O/¹⁶O < 0.0034, and ²²Ne/²⁰Ne = 0.077(+0.085, –0.023). We compare our values with those found by previous investigators and with those measured in other samples of solar and galactic material. In particular, a comparison of ²²Ne/²⁰Ne measurements from various sources implies that GCRs are not simply an accelerated sample of the local interstellar medium.     

Time-Variability in the Interstellar Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere: Effect of the Solar Journey on the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux at Earth

During the solar journey through galactic space, variations in the physical properties of the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) modify the heliosphere and modulate the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at the surface of the Earth, with consequences for the terrestrial record of cosmogenic radionuclides. One phenomenon that needs studying is the effect on cosmogenic isotope production of changing anomalous cosmic ray fluxes at Earth due to variable interstellar ionizations. The possible range of interstellar ram pressures and ionization levels in the low density solar environment generate dramatically different possible heliosphere configurations, with a wide range of particle fluxes of interstellar neutrals, their secondary products, and GCRs arriving at Earth. Simple models of the distribution and densities of ISM in the downwind direction give cloud transition timescales that can be directly compared with cosmogenic radionuclide geologic records. Both the interstellar data and cosmogenic radionuclide data are consistent with two cloud transitions, within the past 10,000 years and a second one 20,000–30,000 years ago, with large and assumption-dependent uncertainties. The geomagnetic timeline derived from cosmic ray fluxes at Earth may require adjustment to account for the disappearance of anomalous cosmic rays when the Sun is immersed in ionized gas.     

The Onset of Long Term Modulation in the Heliosphere in Cycle 23

The combination of Voyager 1 (77.9 AU, 34.4° N) and Voyager 2 (61.2 AU, 24.5° S) at moderate heliolatitudes in the distant heliosphere and Ulysses with its unique latitudinal surveys in the inner heliosphere along with IMP 8 and other satellites at 1 AU constitutes a network of observatories that are ideally suited to study cosmic rays over the solar minimum of cycle 22 and the onset of solar activity and the long term cosmic ray modulation of cycle 23. Through 2000.7 there have been three well-defined step decreases in the cosmic ray intensity at 1 AU with the cumulative effect being in good agreement with the net decrease in cycle 21 at a comparable time in the solar cycle. Over this period the intensity changes at Ulysses are similar to those at 1 AU. In the distant heliosphere the initial decreases appear to be smaller than those at 1 AU. However the full effects of the interplanetary disturbances producing the most recent and largest step decrease in the inner heliosphere have not yet reached V-2. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Transient Effects and Disturbed Conditions

In the present phase of the solar cycle no big transients leading to strong modulation had been observed after 1991. Apart from a few minor disturbances cosmic rays were still recovering to a new intensity maximum. It was suggested, therefore, that existing literature from previous cycles should be critically reviewed. The scene was set by the introductory papers on— phenomenology of cosmic ray modulation in successive solar cycles throughout the heliosphere— the present state of models for long term modulation and their shortcomings— the relation between cosmic ray variations and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (the CR-B-relation)— charge dependent effects.In the discussions, the study of propagating diffusive disturbances and the CR-B-relation played a central role. The difference was stressed between isolated transient disturbances in the inner solar system (Forbush decreases), and the long lasting, step-like decreases caused by merged interaction regions in the outer heliosphere. The recovery rates following the step-like decreases vary with the phase in the 22-year solar cycle. In some cases this requires a modification of existing drift models. In the outer heliosphere, the CR-B-relation leads to the result 1/ between the diffusion coefficient and the field magnitude . This simple result is a challenge for theoreticians to derive the perpendicular diffusion coefficient fromfirst principles. The three articles in this report essentially follow the list of open points and arguments just presented.The article "Observations and Simple Models" is organised around the model of a propagating diffusive barrier, its application to Forbush effects in the inner heliosphere and to decreases caused by merged interaction regions in the outer heliosphere. Acomparison of observed Forbush decreases with model predictions requires a careful separation of the two steps related to the turbulent region behind the shock front and the closed magnetic field regions of the ejecta (the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections). It is shown that models for propagating disturbances can be used to derive values of the diffusion coefficients phenomenologically, not only during the disturbance, but also in the ambient medium.The "Modeling of Merged Interaction Regions" summarizes the dynamic and time-dependent process of cosmic ray modulation in the heliosphere. Numerical models with only a time-dependent neutral sheet prove to be successful when moderate to low solar activity occurs but fail to describe large and discrete steps in modulated cosmic rays when solar activity is high. To explain this feature of heliospheric modulation, the concept of global merged interaction regions is required. The com-bination of gradient, curvature and neutral sheet drifts with these global merged interaction regions has so far been the most successful approach in explaining the 11-year and 22-year cycles in the long-term modulation of cosmic rays.The "Remarks on the Diffusion Tensor in the Heliosphere" describe available theories of perpen-dicular diffusion and drift, and discuss their relevance to cosmic rays in the heliosphere. In addition, the information about diffusion coefficients and spatial gradients obtained from the analysis of steady state anisotropies at neutron monitor energies is summarized. These topics are intimately related to the other two articles. They are also part of the general discussion about the "Diffusion Tensor throughout the Heliosphere" which played an important role in all working groups.     

The Evolution of the Anomalous Cosmic Ray Oxygen Spectra From 1995 to 1998: Ulysses Observations

Moraal and Steenberg (1999), showed that the peak energy in the anomalous cosmic ray spectra is independent of the radial distance up to a few AU away from the termination shock but dependent on the solar wind speed, the radius of the termination shock and the scattering strength. In this paper we will discuss the variation of the cosmic ray oxygen energy spectrum as measured by the Ulysses EPAC and the COSPIN/LET on board Ulysses. We found that the peak energy decreased from ∼5 MeV nucl⁻¹, when Ulysses was at high northern heliographic latitudes embedded in the fast solar wind to ∼3.5 MeV n⁻¹, in the streamer belt. The shift towards lower energy might also be caused by changing modulation although Voyager measurements indicate no variation of the ACR Oxygen spectrum at ∼60 AU. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Doppler scintillation measurements of the heliospheric current sheet and coronal streamers close to the Sun

Prominent enhancements in Doppler scintillation lasting a fraction of a day (solar source several degrees wide) and overlying the neutral line represent the signature of the heliospheric current sheet and the apparent interplanetary manifestation of coronal streamers near the Sun. This first detection of coronal streamers in radio scintillation measurements provides the link betweenin situ measurements of the spatial wavenumber spectrum of electron density fluctuations beyond 0.3 AU and earlier measurements deduced from radio scintillation and scattering observations inside 0.3 AU. Significant differences between the density spectra of fast streams and slow solar wind associated with the heliospheric current sheet near the Sun reinforce the emerging picture that high- and low-speed flows are organized by the large-scale solar magnetic field, and that while the contrast between solar wind properties of the two flows is highest near the Sun, it undergoes substantial erosion in the ecliptic plane as the solar wind expands.