Variations of mid-term periodicities in solar activity physical phenomena

In this work we make an analysis of significant periodicities shown by phenomena linked to solar activity such as coronal hole area, radio emission in the 10.7 cm band and sunspots. We use the wavelet method that gives information in the frequency and time domains. Of particular interest are the mid-term periodicities (1–2 yrs). Over the whole period, coronal holes and radio variations show an important annual variation and a quasi-biannual periodicity. The increase in these variations is most important around the years of maximum solar activity. When the time series are separated in low and high frequencies, the latter are modulated by the general solar cycle. Although somewhat shifted in frequency, these periodicities might well correspond with those found in cosmic ray intensity, solar magnetic flux and other terrestrial and interplanetary phenomena as a wavelet coherence analysis of these series with the solar magnetic flux reveals.     

Response of the mid-latitude D-region ionosphere to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 studied using VLF signals in South Korean peninsula

In this paper, we analyze VLF signals received at Busan to study the the D-region changes linked with the solar eclipse event of 22 July 2009 for very short (∼390 km) transmitter–receiver great circle path (TRGCP) during local noon time 00:36–03:13 UT (09:36–12:13 KST). The eclipse crossed south of Busan with a maximum obscuration of ∼84%. Observations clearly show a reduction of ∼6.2 dB in the VLF signal strength at the time of maximum solar obscuration (84% at 01:53 UT) as compared to those observed on the control days. Estimated values of change in Wait ionospheric parameters: reflection height (h′) in km and inverse scale height parameter (β) in km⁻¹ from Long Wave Propagation Capability (LWPC) model during the maximum eclipse phase as compared to unperturbed ionosphere are 7 km and 0.055 km⁻¹, respectively. Moreover, the D-region electron density estimated from model computation shows 95% depletion in electron density at the height of ∼71 km. The reflection height is found to increase by ∼7 km in the D-region during the eclipse as compared to those on the control days, implying a depletion in the Lyman-α flux by a factor of ∼7. The present observations are discussed in the light of current understanding on the solar eclipse induced D-region dynamics.     

On mid-term periodicities of high-latitude solar activity

The mid-term periodicities of polar faculae are studied separately for the total disk, northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun for a time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. Apart from the 11-year Schwabe cycle which is the fundamental period and is found in all of the three time series, the following prominent results are found: (1) the rotational periodicity of solar activity at high latitudes is approximately from 28 to 32 days; (2) a large number of quasi-periods appearing in low-latitude solar activity (annual variation, 1.3–1.7 years, quasi-biennial oscillation, and 4–5 years) also exist in polar faculae; (3) the periodicities on both hemispheres are not identical.     

Jovian periodicities (∼10 h, ∼40 min) on Ulysses’ Distant Jupiter Encounter observations around the Halloween CIR events

We analyzed data from four different instruments (HI-SCALE, URAP, SWOOPS, VHM/FGM) onboard Ulysses spacecraft (s/c) and we searched for possible evidence of Jovian emissions when the s/c approached Jupiter during the times of Halloween events (closest time approach/position to Jupiter: February 5, 2004/R = 1683 R_J,θ = ∼49°). In particular, we analyzed extensively the low energy ion measurements obtained by the HI-SCALE experiment in order to examine whether low energy ion/electron emissions show a symmetry, and whether they are observed at north high latitudes upstream from the jovian bow shock, as is known to occur in the region upstream from the south bow shock as well ( Marhavilas et al., 2001). We studied the period from October 2003 to March 2004, as Ulysses moved at distances 0.8–1.2 AU from the planet at north Jovicentric latitudes <75°, and we present here an example of characteristic Jovian periodicities in the measurements around a CIR observed by Ulysses on days ∼348–349/2003 (R = 1894 R_J,θ = 72°). We show that Ulysses observed low energy ion (∼0.055–4.7 MeV) and electron (>∼40 keV) flux and/or spectral modulation with the Jupiter rotation period (∼10 h) as well as variations with the same period in solar wind parameters, radio and magnetic field directional data. In addition, characteristic strong ∼40 min periodic variations were found superimposed on the ∼10 h ion spectral modulation. Both the ∼10 h and ∼40 min ion periodicities in HI-SCALE measurements were present in several cases during the whole period examined (October 2003 to March 2004) and were found to be more evident during some special conditions, for instance during enhanced fluxes around the start (forward shock) and the end (reverse shock) of CIRs. We infer that the Jovian magnetosphere was triggered by the impact of the CIRs, after the Halloween events, and it was (a) a principal source of forward and reverse shock-associated ion flux structures and (b) the cause of generation of ∼10 h quasi-periodic magnetic field and plasma modulation observed by Ulysses at those times.     

Occurrence rate of SAR arcs during the 23rd solar activity cycle

The occurrence rate of SAR arcs during 1997–2007 has been analyzed based on the photometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (Maimaga station, corrected geomagnetic coordinates: 57°N, 200°E). SAR arcs appeared in 114 cases (∼500 h) during ∼370 nights of observations (∼3170 h). The occurrence frequency of SAR arcs increases to 27% during the growth phase of solar activity and has a clearly defined maximum at a decline of cycle 23. The SAR arc registration probability corresponds to the variations in geomagnetic activity in this solar cycle. The dates, intervals of UT, and geomagnetic latitudes of SAR arc observations at the Yakutsk meridian are presented.     

Statistical study of the detection of solar protons of highest energies at 20 January 2005

On January 20, 2005, 7:02–7:04 UT the Aragats Multichannel Muon Monitor (AMMM) registered enhancement of the high energy secondary muon flux (energy threshold ∼5 GeV). The enhancement, lasting 3 min, has statistical significance of ∼4σ and is related to the X7.1 flare seen by the GOES satellite and the ground level enhancement detected by the world-wide network of neutron monitors and by muon detectors. The most probable proton energy corresponding to the measured 5 GeV muon flux is within 23–30 GeV. Due to upmost importance of the detection of solar particles of highest energies in presented paper we perform detailed statistical analysis of the detected peak. The statistical technique introduced in the paper is also appropriate for the searches of sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays.     

Response of low latitude D-region ionosphere to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 deduced from ELF/VLF analysis

Response of the D-region of the ionosphere to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 at low latitude, Varanasi (Geog. lat., 25.27° N; Geog. long., 82.98° E; Geomag. lat. = 14° 55’ N) was investigated using ELF/VLF radio signal. Tweeks, a naturally occurring VLF signal and radio signals from various VLF navigational transmitters are first time used simultaneously to study the effect of total solar eclipse (TSE). Tweeks occurrence is a nighttime phenomena but the obscuration of solar disc during TSE in early morning leads to tweek occurrence. The changes in D-region ionospheric VLF reflection heights (h) and electron density (n_e: 22.6–24.6 cm⁻³) during eclipse have been estimated from tweek analysis. The reflection height increased from ∼89 km from the first occurrence of tweek to about ∼93 km at the totality and then decreased to ∼88 km at the end of the eclipse, suggesting significant increase in tweek reflection height of about 5.5 km during the eclipse. The reflection heights at the time of totality during TSE are found to be less by 2–3 km as compared to the usual nighttime tweek reflection heights. This is due to partial nighttime condition created by TSE. A significant increase of 3 dB in the strength of the amplitude of VLF signal of 22.2 kHz transmitted from JJI-Japan is observed around the time of the total solar eclipse (TSE) as compared to a normal day. The modeled electron density height profile of the lower ionosphere depicts linear variation in the electron density with respect to solar radiation as observed by tweek analysis also. These low latitude ionospheric perturbations on the eclipse day are discussed and compared with other normal days.     

Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

The asymmetrical features in electron density during extreme solar minimum

The variations of plasma density in topside ionosphere during 23rd/24th solar cycle minimum attract more attentions in recently years. In this analysis, we use the data of electron density (Ne) from DEMETER (Detection of Electromagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite at the altitude of 660–710 km to investigate the solstitial and equinoctial asymmetry under geomagnetic coordinate system at LT (local time) 1030 and 2230 during 2005–2010, especially in solar minimum years of 2008–2009. The results reveal that ΔNe (December–June) is always positive over Southern Hemisphere and negative over northern part whatever at LT 1030 or 2230, only at 0–10°N the winter anomaly occurs with ΔNe (December–June) > 0, and its amplitude becomes smaller with the declining of solar flux from 2005 to 2009. The ΔNe between September and March is completely negative during 2005–2008, but in 2009, it turns to be positive at latitudes of 20°S–40°N at LT 1030 and 10°S–20°N at LT 2230. Furthermore, the solstitial and equinoctial asymmetry index (AI) are calculated and studied respectively, which all depends on local time, latitude and longitude. The notable differences occur at higher latitudes in solar minimum year of 2009 with those in 2005–2008. The equinoctial AI at LT 2230 is quite consistent with the variational trend of solar flux with the lowest absolute AI occurring in 2009, the extreme solar minimum, but the solstitial AI exhibits abnormal enhancement during 2008 and 2009 with bigger AI than those in 2005–2007. Compared with the neutral compositions at 500 km altitude, it illustrates that [O/N₂] and [O] play some roles in daytime and nighttime asymmetry of Ne at topside ionosphere.     

Effect of solar activity on the repetitiveness of some meteorological phenomena

In this paper we research the relationship between solar activity and the weather on Earth. This research is based on the assumption that every ejection of magnetic field energy and particles from the Sun (also known as Solar wind) has direct effects on the Earth’s weather. The impact of coronal holes and active regions on cold air advection (cold fronts, precipitation, and temperature decrease on the surface and higher layers) in the Belgrade region (Serbia) was analyzed. Some active regions and coronal holes appear to be in a geo-effective position nearly every 27 days, which is the duration of a solar rotation. A similar period of repetitiveness (27–29 days) of the passage of the cold front, and maximum and minimum temperatures measured at surface and at levels of 850 and 500 hPa were detected. We found that 10–12 days after Solar wind velocity starts significantly increasing, we could expect the passage of a cold front. After eight days, the maximum temperatures in the Belgrade region are measured, and it was found that their minimum values appear after 12–16 days. The maximum amount of precipitation occurs 14 days after Solar wind is observed. A recurring period of nearly 27 days of different phases of development for hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma was found. This analysis confirmed that the intervals of time between two occurrences of some particular meteorological parameter correlate well with Solar wind and A index.     

Behavior of the atomic oxygen 557.7 nm atmospheric emission in the solar cycle 23

We present the results of nightglow observation of the atomic oxygen 557.7 nm line emission in the solar cycle 23. We use the experimental data obtained at Geophysical observatory near Irkutsk (52°N, 103°E), Russia, for the 1997–2006 period. The 557.7 nm emission observations data are compared with atmospheric and solar parameters. We note a difference in correlation coefficients between the 557.7 nm emission intensity and the solar activity indices in different phases of the solar cycle. Airglow observation results are compared with the observational data obtained by other authors.     

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996–1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009–2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity < 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu < intensity < 10 pfu) and major (intensity ? 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north–south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.     

Short-term periodicities in the downward longwave radiation and their associations with cosmic ray and solar interplanetary data

In this study downward longwave (LW) atmospheric radiation data for the period of 2014–2020 were used to search for short-term periodicities using fast Fourier transform (FFT). Several local peaks in the power spectrum density were found and established. The time series exhibits a series of significant peaks (exceeding the 95% confidence limit), such as at 273 days, 227 days, 200 days, 178 days, 157 days, 110 days, 120 days, 87 days, 73 days, 53–56 days, 35–30 days, 25–27 days, 21 days, 13 days, and 9–10 days.Moreover, cosmic ray data from KACST muon detector and the Oulu neutron monitor, as well as the data for the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7 cm), Dst index, and solar wind speed for the same period as the LW data, were used to look for common cyclic variations and periodicities matching those found in the LW radiation. This was done to investigate the possible effect of the solar activity parameters on LW radiation. Several common periodicities were observed in the spectra of all the variables considered, such as 227 days, 154–157 days, 25–27 days, and 21 days. Some of the periodicities found in the LW radiation spectrum can be attributed to the modulation of the cosmic ray intensity by solar activity. Others are attributed to the disturbances in the interplanetary magnetic field. Based on the spectral results, we suggest that the solar signals may directly or indirectly affect the variations of the downward longwave radiation, which in turn may affect climate change.     

Variation in the ionospheric propagating factor M(3000)F2 at Ouagadougou,Burkina Faso

We use hourly monthly median values of propagation factor M(3000)F2 data observed at Ouagadougou Ionospheric Observatory (geographic12.4°N, 1.5°W; 5.9^o dip), Burkina Faso (West Africa) during the years Januar1987–December1988 (average F10.7 < 130 × 10⁻²² W/m²/Hz, representative of low solar flux conditions) and for January 1989–December1990 (average F10.7 ? 130 × 10⁻²² W/m²/Hz, representative of high solar epoch) for magnetically quiet conditions to describe local time, seasonal and solar cycle variations of equatorial ionospheric propagation factor M(3000)F2 in the African region. We show that that seasonal trend between solar maximum and solar minimum curves display simple patterns for all seasons and exhibits reasonable disparity with root mean square error (RMSE) of about 0.31, 0.29 and 0.26 for December solstice, June solstice and equinox, respectively. Variability Σ defined by the percentage ratio of the absolute standard deviation to the mean indicates significant dissimilarity for the two solar flux levels. Solar maximum day (10–14 LT) and night (22–02 LT) values show considerable variations than the solar minimum day and night values. We compare our observations with those of the IRI 2007 to validate the prediction capacity of the empirical model. We find that the IRI model tends to underestimate and overestimate the observed values of M(3000)F2, in particular, during June solstice season. There are large discrepancies, mainly during high solar flux equinox and December solstice between dawn and local midnight. On the other hand, IRI provides a slightly better predictions for M(3000)F2 between 0900 and 1500 LT during equinox low and high solar activity and equinox high sunspot number. Our data are of great importance in the area of short-wave telecommunication and ionospheric modeling.     

Empirical model of cosmic ray spectrum in energy interval 1 MeV–100 GeV during 11-year solar cycle

The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are the main ionization source at altitude of ∼3–35 km in the atmosphere. For high latitude anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) component has also a significant influence on the atmospheric ionization. We propose an empirical model for differential spectra D(E) of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays in energy interval 1 MeV–100 GeV during solar cycle. In the model data are used which cover three solar cycles: 20, 22 and 23. The LEAP87, IMAX92, CAPRICE94, AMS98 and BESS experimental spectra for protons and alpha particles are fitted to the proposed empirical model. The modulated GCR differential spectra are compared with force-field approximation to the one-dimensional transport equation and with solutions of two-dimensional cosmic ray transport equation. For experimental spectra, the calculation of the model parameters is performed by Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, applied to the special case of least squares. Algorithm that combines the rapid local convergence of Newton–Raphson method with globally convergent method for non-linear systems of equations is applied for theoretically obtained differential spectra. The described programmes are realized in algorithmic language C++. The proposed model gives practical possibility for investigation of experimental data from measurements of galactic cosmic rays and their anomalous component.     

Solar cycle effect on temporal and spatial variation of topside ion density measured by SROSS C2 and ROCSAT 1 over the Indian longitude sector

We investigated the diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations of ion density Ni over the Indian low and equatorial topside ionosphere within 17.5°S to 17.5°N magnetic latitudes by combining the data from SROSS C2 and ROCSAT 1 for the 9 year period from 1995 to 2003 during solar cycle 23. The diurnal maximum density is found in the local noon or in the afternoon hours and the minimum occurs in the pre sunrise hours. The density is higher during the equinoxes as compared to that in the June and December solstice. The local time spread of the daytime maximum ion density increases with increase in solar activity. A north south asymmetry with higher ion density over northern hemisphere in the June solstice and over southern hemisphere in December solstice has been observed in moderate and high solar activity years. The crest to crest distance increases with increase in solar flux. Ion density bears a nonlinear relationship with F_10.7 cm solar flux and EUV flux in general. The density increases linearly with solar flux up to ∼150 sfu (1 sfu = 10⁻²²Wm⁻²Hz⁻¹) and EUV flux up to ∼50 units (10⁹ photons cm⁻² s⁻¹). But beyond this the density saturates. Inverse saturation and linear relationship have been observed in some season or latitude also. Inter-comparison of the three solar activity indices F_10.7 cm flux, EUV flux and F_10.7P (= (F_10.7 + F_10.7A)/2, where F_10.7A is the 81 day running average value of F_10.7) shows that the ion density correlates better with F_10.7P and F_10.7 cm fluxes. The annual average daytime total ion density from 1995 to 2003 follows a hysteresis loop as the solar cycle reverses. The ion density at 500 km over the Indian longitude sector as obtained by the international reference ionosphere is in general lower than the measured densities during moderate and high solar activity years. In low solar activity years the model densities are equal or higher than measured densities. The IRI EIA peaks are symmetric (±10°) in equinox while densities are higher at 10°N in June solstice and at 10°S in the December solstice. The model density follows F_10.7 linearly up to about F_10.7 > ∼150 sfu and then saturates.     

Rigidity spectrum of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in different epochs of solar activity

We study the temporal evolution of the power rigidity spectrum of the first (27 days) and the second (14 days) harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity measured by neutron monitors in the period of 1965–2002. The rigidity spectrum of these variations can be approximated by a power law. We show the rigidity spectra of the first and the second harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity have similar time profiles. These spectra are hard (γ ≈ 0.5 ± 0.1) and soft (γ ≈ 1.1 ± 0.2) during solar maximum and minimum activity, respectively. We ascribe this to the alternation of the sizes of the modulation regions responsible for the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in different epochs of solar activity. Especially, the average radial sizes of the modulation regions of the 27-day variation and the heliolatitudinal extension of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry are smaller during solar minimum than during solar maximum. We show also, that the temporal changes of the power rigidity spectra of the first and the second harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity are in a negative correlation with the changes of the rigidity spectrum of the corresponding 11-year variation.     

S5 0716+714: GeV variability study

The GeV observations by Fermi-LAT give us the opportunity to characterize the high-energy emission (100 MeV–300 GeV) variability properties of the BL Lac object S5 0716+714. In this study, we performed flux and spectral analysis of more than 3 year long (August 2008 to April 2012) Fermi-LAT data of the source. During this period, the source exhibits two different modes of flux variability with characteristic timescales of ∼75 and ∼140 days, respectively. We also notice that the flux variations are characterized by a weak spectral hardening. The GeV spectrum of the source shows a clear deviation from a simple power law, and is better explained by a broken power law. Similar to other bright Fermi blazars, the break energy does not vary with the source flux during the different activity states. We discuss several possible scenarios to explain the observed spectral break.     

AVS-F observations of γ-ray emission during January 20, 2005 solar flare up to 140 MeV

The solar flare of January 20, 2005 (X7.1, 06:36–07:26 UT, maximum at 07:01 UT by the GOES soft X-ray data) was the most powerful one in January 2005 series. The AVS-F apparatus onboard CORONAS-F registered γ-emission during soft X-ray rising phase of this flare in two energy ranges of 0.1–20 MeV and 2–140 MeV. The highest γ-ray energy registered during this flare was ∼140 MeV. Six spectral features were registered in energy spectrum of this solar flare: annihilation + αα (0.4–0.6 MeV), ²⁴Mg + ²⁰Ne + ²⁸Si + neutron capture (1.7–2.3 MeV), ²¹Ne + ²²Ne + ¹⁶O + ¹²С (3.2–5.0 MeV), ¹⁶O (5.3–6.9 MeV), one from neutral pions decay (25–110 MeV) and one in energy band 15–21 MeV. Four of them contain typical for solar flares lines – annihilation, nuclear de-excitation and neutron capture at ¹H. Spectral feature caused by neutral pions decay was registered during several flares too. Some spectral peculiarities in the region of 15–21 MeV were first observed in solar flare energy spectrum.     

New index of long-term variations of galactic cosmic ray intensity

We find that the soft rigidity spectrum of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) intensity variations for the maximum epoch and the hard rigidity spectrum for the minimum epoch calculated based on the neutron monitors experimental data (1960–2002) are related with the various dependence of the diffusion coefficient on the GCR particle’s rigidity for different epoch of solar activity. This dependence is stronger in the maximum epoch than in the minimum epoch of solar activity, and is provided by the essential temporal rearrangements of the structure of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) turbulence from the maxima to minima epoch of solar activity. We also show that the rigidity spectrum of GCR intensity variations is harder for the effective rigidities ∼(10–15) GV (by neutron monitors data), than for the effective rigidities ∼(25–30) GV (by neutron monitors and muon telescopes data). A general scenario of GCR modulation versus solar activity is settled on the essential temporal rearrangements of the structure of the IMF turbulence. Therefore, the temporal changes of the power law rigidity spectrum exponent can be considered as a vital (new) index to explain the 11-year variations of the GCR intensity. We assume that ∼(70–80)% of the changes of the amplitudes of the 11-year variations of GCR intensity is related with the changes of the IMF turbulence versus solar activity.