中等磁暴太阳周分布的统计研究

依据实际观测的中等磁暴数据,统计分析了中等磁暴的太阳周分布.分析结果表明,在一个太阳活动周内,每年中等磁暴随时间的变化出现多个峰值,其中,最大峰值均出现在太阳活动周的下降段,即中等磁暴的峰值比太阳黑子数平滑年均值的峰值要滞后,滞后的时间为2～3年.超过70%的中等磁暴出现在太阳活动周的下降段,这表明绝大多数中等磁暴出现在太阳活动周的下降段.通过对中等磁暴平滑月均值与太阳黑子数平滑月均值相位差的计算分析发现,中等磁暴峰值出现的时间比太阳黑子数峰值出现的时间要滞后,不同太阳活动周中等磁暴峰值出现的时间与太阳黑子数峰值时间滞后的程度不同.      

地磁Ap指数滞后太阳周循环分析

把1932-2006年地磁Ap指数12个月流动均值分解成为(Ap)R和(Ap)I.其中(Ap)R为太阳黑子数R的线性函数,与太阳黑子数R相位相同,可能对应于日冕物质抛射(CME)等地磁控制因素. (Ap)I分量与太阳黑子数R相位相差约180°,该分量可能对应于极冕洞变化(从太阳峰年开始,由日面极区逐渐向赤道延伸).以地磁Ap指数与太阳黑子数R滞后非常严重的第20太阳周为例,证实了(Ap)I分量与极冕洞向赤道延伸循环变化相对应.因此极冕洞循环变化可能是导致地磁扰动指数与太阳周循环相位不一致,出现滞后现象的一个十分重要原因.      

全晕CME与太阳质子事件的关系

日冕物质抛射（CME）是太阳质子事件的重要源头.CME的速度和源区位置是太阳质子事件产生的重要因素.通过统计最近5年全晕CME与太阳质子事件的关系发现,速度大且源区位置距离日面上连接地球磁力线足点近的全晕CME更易引发太阳质子事件,其中速度大于1200km…-1、角距离60°以内的样本引发太阳质子事件的概率最高.对3个未引发太阳质子事件的高速全晕CME进行了详细分析,发现CME的主体爆发方向和行星际磁场环境的变化也影响太阳质子事件的产生.因此,在太阳质子事件的实际预报中,综合CME爆发速度、源区位置、主体抛射方向和行星际环境等多个因素才能给出更准确的事件预报结果.      

基于机器学习方法对23太阳活动周质子事件的研究

在耀斑伴随日冕物质抛射（CME）事件编目数据的基础上，进行太阳质子事件（SPE）匹配，构建研究数据集.利用Apriori算法挖掘SPE与耀斑级别、耀斑发生日面位置以及CME角宽度和速度的关联关系.结果表明:X级耀斑、全晕CME、高速（>1000km·-1） CME和日面西半球耀斑是最可能伴随质子事件的4种特征，其诱发质子事件概率依次为0.366，0.355，0.30，0.155.角宽度低于120°或速度低于400km·-1的CME产生质子事件的概率为0.高速CME产生质子事件的概率是低速（400～1000km·-1） CME的8.6倍，X级耀斑产生质子事件的概率是M级耀斑的6.2倍，日面西部耀斑产生质子事件的概率是日面东部耀斑概率的3.9倍，全晕CME产生太阳质子事件的概率是非全晕（120°～360°） CME的3.8倍.对太阳质子事件样本进行过采样处理，利用随机森林等5种典型有监督学习算法，构建了基于第23太阳活动周耀斑和CME特征的质子事件预测模型.结果表明，该预报模型的质子事件预测准确率、精确率和召回率均控制在91%以上.      

太阳黑子数及Ap指数周期变化特征的小波分析

应用Morlet小波变换方法从多个变化尺度上对1932—2000年的太阳黑子数及Ap指数的变化特征进行分析．(1)太阳黑子数存在准11年、准32年的周期变化特征及Ap指数存在准32年、准11年、准6个月、准27天和准13．9天的周期变化特征；(2)太阳黑子数及Ap指数有着相似的准11年周期变化，但Ap指数极值的出现要比太阳黑子数极值出现滞后1—2年；(3)Ap指数准27天的周期变化在太阳黑子活动高、低年不同，在太阳活动低年，Ap指数有着较稳定的准27天周期变化，但在太阳活动高年，27天的周期变化几乎消失，这种周期变化的消失和出现时间可在Morlet小波变换图中体现出来。     

缓变型太阳高能粒子事件特征时间及其经向分布

利用SOHO,STEREO高能粒子观测数据,对2011-2014年30个通量短时间内显著增强的缓变型太阳高能粒子（SEP）事件的两个特征时间（局地爆发时间,起始释放时间）及其经向分布进行统计分析.研究结果显示,多颗卫星同时观测到的SEP事件伴随的日冕物质抛射（CME）角宽明显较一般事件大,且基本都为Halo CME;不同卫星观测到的粒子通量局地增强时间差与卫星位置经度差明显线性正相关且东西不对称;局地爆发时间和起始释放时间相对于耀斑时间的延迟与卫星相对经度正相关;卫星所有能量通道的两个特征时间极差与卫星相对经度呈现较好的正相关,这表明不同能量SEP释放的时间跨度具有明显经度差异;高低能释放时间差与CME速度正相关.这些结论表明,SEP事件的两个特征时间具有明显的经向依赖性,并都与CME速度相关.      

基于小波与交叉小波分析的太阳黑子与宇宙线相关性研究

利用小波分析和交叉小波分析方法, 根据太阳黑子数以及Huancayo和Climax两个测站的月均宇宙线数据, 分析了两个测站的月均宇宙线周期变化, 同时利用太阳黑子数R₁₂对Climax站宇宙线流量进行预测研究. 小波分析结果表明, 太阳黑子与宇宙线除存在显著的11年周期外, 太阳活动高年期间还存在1～6个月尺度的周期特性, 在第22太阳周活动高年时还出现了6～8和1～22个月的变化周期; 交叉小波分析结果表明, 在130个月左右的周期上宇宙线与太阳黑子具有显著的负相关性, 并且宇宙线的变化滞后太阳黑子约8个月; 分别采用预测时刻和8个月前的太阳黑子数, 预测相对误差为3.8912%和3.2386%. 本文方法同样适用于估算其他空间天气参量之间的周期和相关性, 提高各种空间天气参量的预测或预报精度.      

太阳高能粒子事件上升时间统计研究

选取1997-2006年共66个较大的缓变型太阳高能粒子(SEP)事件, 分析了不同条件下太阳高能粒子通量廓线上升时间与源区日面经向分布之间的相关关系, 研究了日冕物质抛射(CME)和耀斑在SEP上升阶段的作用特点.统计结果表明,大SEP事件的源区主要分布在太阳西半球, 特别是磁足点东西两侧45°范围内; 在高速太阳风条件下, 低能通道的通量上升时间与日面相对经度有较好的相关性,即离磁足点越远, 上升时间越长,而高能通道相关性则不明显; 全晕状CME产生的SEP事件对应的上升时间与源区位置没有明显的相关性, 而部分晕状CME伴随的SEP事件则与二次拟合曲线符合很好.分析表明,在缓变型SEP事件的通量上升阶段, 耀斑加速过程起着重要作用,这在部分晕状CME伴随的SEP事件中尤为显著.      

基于NOAA卫星数据的辐射带质子投掷角分布研究

利用NOAA-12卫星数据对空间环境平静时期太阳同步轨道处辐射带质子投掷角分布进行了研究. 根据投掷角分布的经验公式,计算出90°投掷角的质子方向强度和各向异性指数n. 质子投掷角分布按n的取值范围可分为三类,即90°峰值分布、平顶分布和蝴蝶形分布. 观测证实,对于辐射带质子,三种分布类型均存在并且具有明显的空间区域特征. 在内辐射带边缘地区90°峰值分布占主要优势;在外辐射带高L值区域,90°峰值分布明显减少,平顶分布和蝴蝶形分布逐渐增多. 针对90°峰值分布,研究了质子强度各向异性的区域分布特征,对于内辐射带区域,n值随L值的增大而增大,对于外辐射带,n值表现为逐渐下降的趋势. 为了研究质子投掷角分布对磁地方时的依赖关系,分析了能量为250～800keV的质子在两个不同磁地方时范围的投掷角分布规律. 结果显示,在内辐射带,质子强度的投掷角分布相对稳定,随磁地方时的变化并不显著;而在外辐射带的高L值区域,质子强度的投掷角分布随磁地方时变化明显,与磁地方时之间有明显的依赖关系.      

太阳高能粒子观测特征经向分布统计

基于多卫星联合观测数据，筛选了2006年12月至2017年10月期间122个太阳高能粒子（SEP）事件及其伴随的日冕物质抛射（CME），分析了SEP事件属性随相对经度的变化、与CME属性之间相关性的经向分布以及与Fe/O比值的关联.研究结果显示:低Fe/O类事件的峰值通量I_p通常更高，伴随CME更大，但通量上升速度较慢，且其D_u（持续时间）和I_p与CME速度呈现更强的相关性；SEP特征时间T_O（CME爆发至SEP事件爆发）与T_R（SEP事件爆发至半峰值）随相对经度增加而增大，D_u与I_p随相对经度增加而减小，通量上升斜率K在±90°范围内自东向西递减；SEP事件属性与伴随CME属性的相关性随相对经度的改变有明显变化，在磁连接好的位置，T_O与CME速度等属性呈现负相关，T_R与CME速度等属性呈现正相关，D_u，I_p与CME速度之间的相关性更强.研究结果进一步表明，SEP事件观测属性既与CME参数相关，同时又具有很强的经度依赖性，在磁连接越好的位置卫星观测到的SEP事件强度越高，SEP观测参数受CME的影响越大，这对大型SEP事件的预报很有意义.此外，高Fe/O类SEP事件与CME相关性的减弱暗示了耀斑加速、种子粒子源等因素的影响.      

X级质子耀斑的特征研究

为了更加准确地判断X级耀斑是否引发质子事件,对X级质子耀斑和非质子耀斑的耀斑积分通量、源区、CME速度、CME角宽度、背景太阳风速度及背景X射线通量的分布进行了统计研究.发现非质子耀斑和质子耀斑的积分通量、经度、CME速度和CME角宽度具有明显不同的分布.非质子耀斑大多集中在东部,耀斑积分通量小于0.3J·m-2,CME速度小于1300km·s-1的区域内;质子耀斑大多集中在中部或西部,耀斑积分通量大于0.3J·m-2,CME速度大于1300km·s-1的区域内.质子耀斑伴随的CME角宽度主要集中在360°,非质子耀斑的CME角宽度分布则相对分散.两类耀斑的背景太阳风速度和背景X射线通量分布差别不大.利用两类耀斑各个参量分布上的差异,有望提高X级耀斑预报的准确率.      

A statistical study of post-flare-associated CME events

We present a statistical study of post-flare-associated CMEs (PFA-CMEs) during the period from 1996 to 2010. By investigating all CMEs and X-ray flares, respectively, in the LASCO and GOES archives, we found 15875 CMEs of which masses are well measured and 25112 X-ray flares of which positions are determined from their optical counterparts. Under certain temporal and spatial criteria of these CMEs and solar flare events, 291PFA-CMEs events have been selected. Linking the flare fluxes with CME speeds of these paired events, we found that there is a reasonable positive linear relation between the CME linear speed and associated flare flux. The results show also the CME width increases as the flux of its associated solar flare increases. Besides we found that there is a fine positive linear relation between the CME mass and its width. Matching the flare fluxes with CME masses of these paired events, we find the CME mass increases as the flux of its associated solar flare increases. Finally we find the PFA-CME events are in regular more decelerated than the other CMEs.     

Investigating the Coronal Mass Ejections associated with DH type-II radio bursts and solar flares during the ascending phase of the solar cycle 24

We studied a set of 74 CMEs, with shedding the light on the halo-CMEs (HCMEs), that are associated with decametric – hectometric (DH) type-II radio bursts (1–16?MHz) and solar flares during the period 2008–2014. The events were classified into 3 groups (disk, intermediate, and limb events) based on their longitudinal distribution.We found that the events are mostly distributed around 15.32° and 15.97° at the northern and southern solar hemispheres, respectively. We found that there is a clear dependence between the longitude and the CME’s width, speed, acceleration, mass, and kinetic energy. For the CMEs’ widths, most of the events were HCMEs (～62%), while the partial HCMEs comprised ～35% and the rest of events were CMEs with widths less than 120°. For the CMEs’ speeds, masses, and kinetic energies, the mean values showed a direct proportionality with the longitude, in which the limb events had the highest speeds, the largest masses, and the highest kinetic energies. The mean peak flux of the solar flares for different longitudes was comparable, but the disk flares were more energetic. The intermediate flares were considered as gradual flares since they tended to last longer, while the limb flares were considered as impulsive flares since they tended to last shorter.A weak correlation (R?=?0.32) between the kinetic energy of the CMEs and the duration of the associated flares has been noticed, while there was a good correlation (R?=?0.76) between the kinetic energy of the CMEs and the peak flux of the associated flares. We found a fair correlation (R?=?0.58) between the kinetic energy of the CMEs and the duration of the associated DH type-II radio bursts.     

A statistical study of CME-associated flare during the solar cycle 24

We investigate on the relationship between flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in which a flare started before and after the CME events which differ in their physical properties, indicating potentially different initiation mechanisms. The physical properties of two types flare-correlated CME remain an interesting and important question in space weather. We study the relationship between flares and CMEs using a different approach requiring both temporal and spatial constraints during the period from December 1, 2008 to April 30, 2017 in which the CMEs data were acquired by SOHO/LASCO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) over the solar cycle 24. The soft X-ray flare flux data, such as flare class, location, onset time and integrated flux, are collected from Geostationary Environmental satellite (GOES) and XRT Flare catalogs. We selected 307 CMEs-flares pairs applying simultaneously temporal and spatial constraints in all events for the distinguish between two associated CME-flare types. We study the correlated properties of coincident flares and CMEs during this period, specifically separating the sample into two types: flares that precede a CME and flares that follow a CME. We found an opposite correlation relationship between the acceleration and velocity of CMEs in the After- and Before-CMEs events. We found a log-log relation between the width and mass of CMEs in the two associated types. The CMEs and flares properties show that there were significant differences in all physical parameters such as (mass, angular width, kinetic energy, speed and acceleration) between two flare-associated CME types.     

Coronal mass ejection detection using wavelets,curvelets and ridgelets: Applications for space weather monitoring

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic field that can produce adverse space weather at Earth and other locations in the Heliosphere. Due to the intrinsic multiscale nature of features in coronagraph images, wavelet and multiscale image processing techniques are well suited to enhancing the visibility of CMEs and suppressing noise. However, wavelets are better suited to identifying point-like features, such as noise or background stars, than to enhancing the visibility of the curved form of a typical CME front. Higher order multiscale techniques, such as ridgelets and curvelets, were therefore explored to characterise the morphology (width, curvature) and kinematics (position, velocity, acceleration) of CMEs. Curvelets in particular were found to be well suited to characterising CME properties in a self-consistent manner. Curvelets are thus likely to be of benefit to autonomous monitoring of CME properties for space weather applications.     

CME productivity associated with Solar Flare peak X-ray emission flux

It is often noticed that the occurrence rate of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) increases with increase in flare duration where peak flux too increase. However, there is no complete association between the duration and peak flux. Distinct characteristics have been reported for active regions (ARs) where flares and CMEs occur in contrast to ARs where flares alone occur. It is observed that peak flux of flares is higher when associated with CMEs compared to peak flux of flares with which CMEs are not associated. In other words, it is likely that flare duration and peak flux are independently affected by distinct active region dynamics. Hence, we examine the relative ability of flare duration and peak flux in enhancing the CME productivity. We report that CME productivity is distinctly higher in association with the enhancement of flare peak flux in comparison to corresponding enhancement of flare duration.     

太阳风速度及日球电流片对CME渡越时间的影响

基于1996-2005年88个引起重大地磁暴的CME(日冕物质抛射)事件、1996-2000年的47个CME事件以及1997-2002年的29个全晕状CME事件,结合ACE卫星在1AU处的太阳风和行星际磁场观测资料以及Wilcox Solar Observatory(WSO)天文台的太阳光球层磁图,分析了背景太阳风速度和日球电流片对CME到达1AU处渡越时间预报误差的影响.结果表明,背景太阳风速度与CME渡越时间误差并没有明显的相关性,在考虑了磁云通量管轴相对黄道面夹角的影响后相关性依然不明显.然而日球电流片对CME渡越时间却有明显的影响,对于初速度较小的异侧CME事件,其渡越时间大于同侧事件;而对于具有较大初速度的CME事件,异侧事件的渡越时间明显小于同侧事件.研究结果表明,CME与太阳风以及日球电流片的相互作用并不是简单的对流相互作用,造成高速CME异侧事件快于同侧事件到达地球的因素非常复杂,有待深入研究.      

Solar proton enhancements in different energy channels and coronal mass ejections during the last solar cycle

The main properties of 11622 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission’s Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO-C2) from January 1996 through December 2006 are considered. Moreover, the extended database of solar proton enhancements (SPEs) with proton flux >0.1 pfu at energy >10 MeV measured at the Earth’s orbit is also studied. A comparison of these databases gives new results concerning the sources and acceleration mechanisms of solar energetic particles. Specifically, coronal mass ejections with width >180° (wide) and linear speed >800 km/s (fast) seem they have the best correlation with solar proton enhancements. The study of some specific solar parameters, such as soft X-ray flares, sunspot numbers, solar flare index etc. has showed that the soft X-ray flares with importance >M5 may provide a reasonable proxy index for the SPE production rate. From this work, it is outlined that the good relation of the fast and wide coronal mass ejections to proton enhancements seems to lead to a similar conclusion. In spite of the fact that in the case of CMEs the statistics cover only the last solar cycle, while the measurements of SXR flares are extended over three solar cycles, it is obvious for the studied period that the coronal mass ejections can also provide a good index for the solar proton production.     

On some large solar energetic particle events: Direct impulsive component and broad associated coronal mass ejections

Using the proton intensity and X-ray flux data from the GOES, combined with the observations of the associated solar eruptions by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), 14 large SEP events occurring in the period 2000 January–2002 April have been studied. It is found that: (1) events with the SEPs increasing shortly after the maximum of their parent flares (<1 h; hereafter prompt events) have rapid and great (up to four orders of magnitude) SEP increments in high-energy channels (> ∼100 MeV); however, for events whose onset of the SEP injection lags the flare maximum for a long time (>3 h; hereafter delayed events), the high-energy SEPs show no obvious enhancements (within one order of magnitude); (2) peak intensity of the prompt events is distinctly larger than that of the delayed events; (3) CMEs associated with the poorly magnetically connected events (source region <W30°) in our survey are all halo CMEs. From these observational differences, we propose a special scenario of the production of the largest SEP events: both CMEs and flares are induced in the same coronal process; high-energy particles accelerated in the reconnection region can escape easily from the open field lines and/or be transported by fast CMEs into interplanetary space, indicating a direct impulsive component in large gradual SEP events. Meanwhile, the broad width of the associated CMEs implies that the CME width is more important in SEP events production than previously considered.