Rebuilding US launch capabilities

Attempts to rebuild US commercial launch capabilities through stimulating private industry will be constrained by the fact that free-market competition does not really exist in the space industry. As the worldwide supply of launch vehicles grows, the policy now offered by the US government is only likely to fragment the US space launch vehicle industry. The author argues in favour of a proposal to establish a quasi-governmental corporation for space launches which would both safeguard the interests of government and commercial users and ensure that business acumen was applied.     

The space risk and commercial space insurance

This article reviews the history of commercial space insurance and describes the relevant legal framework. It then describes the types of transactions that take place and analyses four categories of insurance: pre-launch, launch, in-orbit and re-entry. The recent difficulties of the space insurance industry are described, and the author offers several suggestions for the future.     

Mission success regulations,their effect on ELV launch success and the applicability to regulating commercial human spaceflight

As the human spaceflight industry grows the agencies charged with regulating that industry meet significant challenges. An improvement in launch success would improve the safety for the crew and passengers of a commercial human spaceflight. With respect to ELV launches, NASA's regulations over civil launches are mission success oriented while commercial launches regulated by the FAA-AST, the agency that will also be charged with human spaceflight, takes a more public safety oriented stance. A comparison of the launch success between civil and commercial launches is used to inform the decision on whether or not mission success would be an appropriate regulatory stance for the FAA-AST. The results show that there is no significant difference in launch success between civil and commercial ELV launches. Because of this and because the industry is wary of over regulation, there is indication that a mission success oriented stance might not be appropriate for regulating commercial human spaceflight.     

Commercial spaceports — a window of opportunity?

The feasibility of building commercial spaceports is being actively investigated in several countries. Potential benefits include boosting economic development and assisting the commercial launch industry. This report finds, however, that commercial spaceport development will probably not be capable of generating a large enough return on investment to attract private sector involvement without significant government assistance. It is also unlikely that the market for large launch vehicles will support spaceport development; however, small satellites may offer better prospects.     

The private solution to the space transportation crisis

Confused and short-sighted decisions dominated by political expediency have been made about US space policy in the past 30 years. Overly large and ambitious systems have been chosen, resulting in today's crisis in space transportation. The history of commercial aircraft development offers an alternative example of producing in a range of sizes and capabilities for a wide variety of users, and shows that the space transport industry could benefit from applying the decision-making processes used in private enterprise. The authors examine strategies for privatization of space transportation and conclude that policy support for the commercial launch industry must be continued. NASA must be reoriented towards its basic research function, and more government services should be bought from the private sector.     

Exploration of CASC's Commercial Space

China's commercial space activities started from the launch of Asiasat-1 satellite by a LM-3 launch vehicle on April 7, 1990. As the leading force in China's space industry, CASC has been committed to commercial space for nearly 30 years. The article describes CASC's advantages and activities in commercial space sector, as well as outlook for CASC commercial space development. The author concludes CASC is willing to coordinate and cooperate with state-owned and private companies and will create a new pattern for commercial space, opening up a new industry for space development and achieving more splendid achievement.     

Leadership in space transportation

Rather than aiming at overall preemenence in space, as in the past, it is important for the USA now to specify goals and objectives for its space programme. In the space transportation market, the USA faces long-term competition. Planned properly, the Space Shuttle, Space Station and transfer stages can be used as a unique transport system, forcing other suppliers to compete on US terms. Such a total transport service system could also include ELV support. In entering into international space agreements, the government must take into account the objective of maintaining the competitiveness of the US commercial sector.     

US government policy - the major factor shaping the international commercial space launch marketplace

In this Viewpoint — an edited version of a statement made to the US House Committee on Science's Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics' hearing on ‘US launch strategy’ — the President of Arianespace, Inc analyses the overriding importance of US government policies and executive decisions on the shaping and behavior of the international market in commercial space launch services. Chief among these is the overruling of commercial imperatives by foreign policy and national security interests and the consequent regular intervention of the US government in launch decisions. The ability of Arianespace successfully to compete in a market severely distorted as a result of these interventions, including the encouragement of joint ventures between US and Russian or Ukrainian companies, is explained.     

Chinese launch services A user's guide

This article describes aspects of the Chinese space programme of interest to potential users of Chinese commercial launch services. A brief history is included along with a review of the current licensing requirements of the US government. The rationale behind Aussat's choice of the Long March launch vehicle is presented as well as a brief comment on the likely future for Chinese launch services in the West.     

The USA and international competition in space transportation

This article discusses the crisis facing the USA in the formulation of its space transportation policy, within the context of its overall national space policy. The author examines developments in international space transportation from 1982 to 1992, and the failure of US policies to meet foreign commercial competition in space launches. Two goals have emerged from the US policy debate: to achieve assured access to space, and to reduce the costs of sending payloads to orbit. Both goals need to be faced within the context of a wider commitment by government and private industry to space investment.     

The commercial challenge to Arianespace: the TCI affair

The question of how far rockets used for commercial launch services are subsidised by their respective governments remains highly topical. This article traces the history of the first legal challenge to be made on this basis by a US launch service provider against Arianespace, a case which also called into question the pricing of the Space Shuttle. The perceptions, deliberations and negotiations of both sides are traced and it is noted that their most important outcome was not settlement of the case itself but agreement to start serious consultations on defining ‘rules of the road’ regarding government support to the commercial launch industry.     

The US–Europe technology gap in space transportation: the view from the USA

This paper examines the debate within the USA over how to meet the perceived competition from the successful European Ariane launcher and the loss of US market share for space launch services that it represented. In particular, it explores the origins of the 1983 Reagan Administration policy to turn over expendable launch vehicle production and operation to private industry. The Administration's other decisions to: (1) use the Space Shuttle to fly all government payloads, and (2) allow NASA to market Space Shuttle services commercially, conflicted with this commercialization policy. These policies effectively caused US industry to delay entry into the international competition for launch services until after the loss of the Space Shuttle Challenger in January 1986.     

Developing new launch vehicle technology: The case for multi-national private sector cooperation

Space is now a global business, yet the cost of getting to space is still high. Developing new launch vehicles that are cheaper, safer, and more reliable is the key to both rapid commercial growth and to more and better government uses of space. However, the R&D process leading to new launch vehicles is expensive and technically challenging; the past 50 years have seen many government development programs, but no major technological breakthroughs. Perhaps, it is therefore time to think about other ways of developing new launch vehicles. The best expertise in this field resides primarily with private companies and is spread across many actors and nations. A consortium led by space firms might be a better approach to opening up space in the 21st century. Governments will have to develop new policies treating space as though it were a commercial industry, in particular, relaxing export trade restrictions wherever possible. Issues of dual-use may be outweighed by the rapidly growing widespread availability of launch capabilities. Since new launch vehicles will require large up-front R&D expenditures, government support will continue to be needed to supplement private capital funds. Contributions to this effort should be international. However, difficult it might be in today's security conscious environment to reorient government policy, doing so may offer the most efficient and successful way to break the technological and economic barriers to more reliable access to space.     

Risk management in commercial launches

The article explores the way so-called legal space risks are managed in US commercial space transportation. Risk management in the space transportation field is a highly regulated process, thus allowing practically no possibility of deviating from the system stemming from such regulation. Such a system arises from the legislation, basically the Commercial Space Launch Act, and the agreements. This risk-management structure is characterized by the transfer of risks from the space launch provider to both the user and the government and by the ensuing launcher's limitation of liability.     

Korea''s space development programme: Policy and law

Korea now has a rapidly expanding space programme with exploration aspirations. The government is giving priority to the aerospace industry and, to put it on a better footing, recently enacted a New Space Exploitation Promotion Act. The early history and current and future development of Korea's space activities are briefly described in advance of a comprehensive presentation of the contents of the Act, including launch licensing, liability, registration of space objects, use of satellite information, astronaut rescue, third party liability insurance and establishment of institutions and plans to assist the Korean space effort. A call is made for Asian countries to unite and further their space development through a regional space agency.     

National subsidies in the international commercial launch market

The agreement by the USA and Cocom to allow the export of US-built satellites for launch on Chinese launchers raised the national subsidy issue. The international commercial launch market is multinational and highly competitive; launch suppliers have accused each other of being unfairly subsdized. Currently the US government is engaged in various negotiations to establish a ‘level playing field’. A clear study of the subsidy issue is essential. This article examines some of the charges and the current situation associated with each country and suggests a possible approach for the USA to remain competitive in the international commercial launch market.     

An insurer's view of the space business

In this article the author assesses trends in the major parameters governing space insurance over the past decade. Following the series of launch failures in the mid-1980s premium rates rose sharply, and they have generally remained high — too high, clients sometimes feel. Yet the insurers' financial balance remains consistently negative. The industry leaders can now perhaps bring stability to premium rates, and the climate could be further improved if policies more clearly defined responsibilities and liabilities. However, clients must beware of destroying the space industry market by taking advantage of its momentary weaknesses.     

The development of materials processing in space

The assess the impact of the current crisis in the US space programme on the commercial aspects of space technology development, consultant Allan Spitzer has compiled a report based on interviews with senior representatives of government, industry and academe. The report concentrates on policies specifically related to materials processing in space (MPS) and covers areas such as access to space, the role of NASA, subsidies and pricing.     

Space insurance : Comments from an observer

The space insurance industry has suffered serious financual setbacks in recent years. These setbacks, amounting to a net cash outflow of hundreds of millions of dollars, have resulted in substantial increases in insurance rates and the withdrawal of a number of firms from the launch insurance market. After two decades of commerial space activity a number of questions may be raised: What has been learned from the experience to date? What are the causes of the poor performance of the space insurance industry? What can be done to improve performance? What are the likely prospects of the insurance industry and the likely impacts on the communications satellite industry? In order to answer these questions several examples are considered and analytic approaches discussed. The implications of mission modes, failure/recovery paths and multiple correlated payloads are considered, and analytic approaches based upon computer simulation techniques are described which are required to understand the complex insurance environment and the setting of policies and rate structures.     

Observations on the evolution of satellite launch volume and cyclicality in the space industry

Satellites have been rightly described as the lifeblood of the entire space industry and the number of satellites ordered or launched per year is an important defining metric of the industry's level of activity, such that trends and variability in this volume have significant strategic impact on the space industry. Over the past 40+ years, hundreds of satellites have been launched every year. Thus an important dataset is available for time series analysis and identification of trends and cycles in the various markets of the space industry. This article reports findings of a study for which we collected data on over 6000 satellites launched since 1960 on a yearly basis. We grouped the satellites into three broad categories – defense and intelligence, science, and commercial satellites – and identified and discussed the main trends and cyclical patterns for each of these. Institutional customers (defense and intelligence, and science) accounted for over two-thirds of all satellites launched within our time period (1960–2008), and, in the 1960s and 1970s, they accounted for 90% and 73.5%, respectively. A fair conclusion from this data is that the space industry was enabled by, and grew because of the institutional customers, not commercial market forces. However, when the launch data is examined more closely, a growing influence of the commercial sector is noticeable. Over the past two decades communication satellites accounted for roughly half of all launches, thus reflecting an important shift in the space industry in which the commercial sector is playing an equal role (on a launch volume basis) to that of the institutional market. Cyclical patterns in the satellite launch volume over the past decade are separately discussed before we sum up with a conclusion.