Multiple model PMHT and its application to the benchmark radar tracking problem

The probabilistic multiple hypothesis tracker (PMHT) uses the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to solve the measurement-origin uncertainty problem. Here, we explore some of its variants for maneuvering targets and in particular discuss the multiple model PMHT. We apply this PMHT to the six "typical" tracking scenarios given in the second benchmark problem from W. D. Blair and G. A. Watson (1998). The manner in which the PMHT is used to track the targets and to manage radar allocation is discussed, and the results compared with those of the interacting multiple model probabilistic data association filter (IMM/PDAF) and IMM/MHT (multiple hypothesis tracker). The PMHT works well: its performance lies between those of the IMM/PDAF and IMM/MHT both in terms of tracking performance and computational load.     

不确定航迹自适应预测模型

针对现有航迹预测技术中,存在无模技术缺乏理论分析支持、能力有限、适用范围窄、有模技术先验假设过多、前提条件严苛、通用性差等问题,通过理论推导,利用循环和多层神经网络结构,研究提出了具有理论严谨、先验假设少、适用范围广、通用性强等优点的不确定航迹自适应预测模型,同时给出了典型的实现方法。该模型克服了现有航迹预测方法的缺点与不足,并具有无模与有模两类技术的优点与长处,仿真和实测实验验证表明：该模型能很好地提取识别出数据中存在的模式,并基于模式,进行正确有效地预测,能有效解决不同实际环境中的航迹预测问题,效果明显。     

Multiple hypothesis track maintenance with possibly unresolved measurements

In surveillance problems dense clutter/dense target situations call for refined data association and tracking techniques. In addition, closely spaced targets may exist which are not resolved. This phenomenon has to be considered explicitly in the tracking algorithm. We concentrate on two targets which temporarily move in close formation and derive a generalization of MHT methods on the basis of a simple resolution model.     

Aircraft maintenance jacking problem via optimization

We address the problem of assigning forces to jacking positions in order to weaken stress at points where an aircraft maintenance operation has to be performed. We introduce a mixed-integer linear programming model and report encouraging computational experiments on historical data. Our methodology is currently under the process of industrial implementation at Airbus, where it will be used as a maintenance decision-analysis tool.     

Integrated track splitting filter--efficient multi-scan single target tracking in clutter

A fully automatic tracking algorithm must be able to deal with an unknown number of targets, unknown target initiation and termination times, false measurements and possibly time-varying target trajectory behaviour. An efficient algorithm for tracking in this environment is presented here. This approach makes use of estimates of the probability of target existence, which is an integral part of the algorithm. This allows for the efficient generation and management of possible target hypotheses, yielding an algorithm with performance that matches what can be obtained by multiple hypothesis tracking-based approaches, but at a significantly lower computational cost. This paper considers only the single target case for clarity. The extension to multiple targets is easily incorporated into this framework. Simulation studies are given that show the effectiveness of this approach in the presence of heavy and nonuniform clutter when tracking a target in an environment of low probability of detection and in an environment where the target performs violent manoeuvres.     

CMH模型中部分参数对磁滞回线形状影响的研究

研究了Complete Moving Hysteresis模型计算公式中部分参数对磁滞回线形状的影响 ,发现饱和磁化强度Ms 和移动参数α对回线形状的影响并不显著 ,但参量γ的影响却是明显的 ,随着γ值的增加 ,回线的斜率增加 ,突变性增强     

Integrated guidance and control for damping augmented system via convex optimization

In this paper, an integrated guidance and control approach is presented to improve the performance of the missile interception. The approach includes damping augmented system with attitude rate feedback to decrease the oscillation during the homing phase for missiles with low damping. In addition, physical constraints, which can affect the performance of the missile interception, such as acceleration limit, seeker’s look angle, and look angle rate constraints are considered.The integrated guidan...     

基于Semi-Markov模型的多态系统不完全维修决策

为提高复杂多态系统的任务完成能力,降低维修资源消耗,提出了基于Semi-Markov模型的预防性维修和修复性维修相结合的多态系统不完全维修决策方法。采用Semi-Markov模型描述部件的性能衰退过程,利用通用生成函数方法对系统的可靠性指标进行分析,在不完全维修模型基础上,从"系统级维修的角度"出发,提出了预防性维修和修复性维修相结合的不完全维修决策方法,确保系统在有限的服役期内,获得最大净效益。并以某航空发动机压气机子系统的维修决策为例进行分析,该方法可以有效的结合预防性维修和修复性维修的优势,提高了系统的任务完成能力,具有很强的通用性和工程应用价值。     

基于高斯混合模型的航迹抗差关联算法

针对雷达系统误差时变、上报目标不完全一致等复杂场景下目标航迹关联问题,采用高斯混合模型（GMM）与航迹间拓扑信息相结合的方法实现航迹抗差关联。将航迹关联问题转化为图像匹配中的非刚性点集匹配问题,建立对非同源航迹具有鲁棒性的高斯混合模型,根据航迹间的邻域拓扑信息决定高斯混合模型中各高斯组成部分的权重,利用期望最大值（EM）算法求解高斯混合模型的最优闭合解,在期望步（E-step）阶段求解航迹的对应关系,在最大化步（M-step）阶段求解非同源航迹比例,最后进行航迹关联判决以获得关联结果。仿真结果表明,该算法在不同系统误差、目标分布密度、探测概率等环境下具有较好有效性和鲁棒性。     

基于鬃毛摩擦理论的环形橡胶减振器动态迟滞特性模型

对环形橡胶减振器的动态特性进行了理论建模。综合考虑材料的高弹特性、频率相关动态特性以及摩擦相关动态特性,并将形状因素的影响考虑在内,提出了一种基于鬃毛摩擦理论的描述减振器动态迟滞特性模型。比较以往的基于库仑摩擦理论的模型,该模型具有对摩擦速度依赖特性的描述能力,且能够预测摩擦应力在零速附近的非线性特征,使得拟合出的动态迟滞特性曲线具有很多微小的波浪特征。开展了测量减振器径向动态迟滞特性的试验,试验结果表明:环形橡胶减振器的实际动态迟滞曲线并非光滑的椭圆环,而是具有很多细微波浪的近似椭圆环,且在激振频率偏高时,波浪特征相对明显,验证了基于鬃毛摩擦理论的理论模型与实际情况的规律和趋势一致、特征相似。      

A quantization architecture for track fusion

Many practical multi-sensor tracking systems are based on some form of track fusion, in which local track estimates and their associated covariances are shared among sensors. Communication load is a significant concern, and the goal of this paper is to propose an architecture for low-bandwidth track fusion. The scheme involves intelligent scalar and vector quantization of the local state estimates and of the associated estimation error covariance matrices. Simulation studies indicate that the communication saving can be quite significant, with only minor degradation of track accuracy.     

An efficient algorithm for multisensor track fusion

An efficient algorithm for track-to-track fusion by incorporating cross-covariance between tracks created by dissimilar sensors is described. An analytical solution of this problem is complicated if cross-correlation between sensors tracking the same target is taken into account. An explicit solution of the cross-covariance matrix at steady state is derived in terms of an integral. It is shown that solution of this integral involves inversion of a matrix whose elements are functions of parameters of individual trackers. Structure of this matrix is analyzed. An efficient analytical solution for inversion of this matrix is obtained. For fusion of similar sensors, it is shown that this matrix is reduced to the Routh-Hurwitz matrix which arises in the study of steady state stability of linear systems. Numerical results showing the amount of reduction of fused track covariance by taking into account the effects of cross-correlation between candidate tracks for fusion is also presented     

Multiple hypothesis track confirmation for infrared surveillancesystems

An overall methodology is described for the application of a multiple hypothesis tracking (MHT) algorithm to the infrared (IR) surveillance system problem of establishing tracks on dim targets in a heavy clutter or false alarm background. The authors discuss the manner in which the detection and tracking systems are jointly designed to optimize performance. They present approximate methods that can conveniently be used for preliminary system design and performance prediction. They discuss the use of a detailed Monte Carlo simulation for final system evaluation and present results illustrating the proposed methods and comparing predicted and simulation performance     

基于比例风险模型的航空发动机视情维修决策

基于航空发动机在翼监控信息来合理确定视情维修(CBM)决策是航空公司安全运营中的重要内容。本文利用Weibull比例风险回归的建模思想,分析了航空发动机因性能衰退而换发的历史监控数据记录,并据此建立了反映该类发动机性能参数与在翼时间之间的函数关系;进而采用最小维修成本、最大可用度策略确定最优维修决策阈值,为同类型在翼发动机进行维修决策的优化提供了一个客观的量化方法。最后对CF6型发动机历史故障数据进行了实例分析,表明该方法在发动机视情维修决策中的实用价值。      

圆弧型指尖密封迟滞特性的数学计算方法

为了预测指尖密封迟滞特性,提出了用能够直观反映指尖密封迟滞特性的最小迟滞量来表征指尖密封的迟滞,建立了指尖密封最小迟滞量计算的数学模型,确定了模型中的修正系数,并进行了试验验证,采用修正后的计算模型研究并获得了结构和工况参数对指尖密封迟滞的影响规律。研究结果表明:采用修正后的模型进行考虑迟滞效应的泄漏特性数值计算与试验结果误差最大为7.64%,最小迟滞量的计算模型合理可靠;指尖密封结构参数对其最小迟滞量影响程度从小到大依次为:指梁型线圆、指梁间隙、指梁根圆、指梁顶圆、指梁基圆、周向角、指尖片厚度。研究结果为进一步开展迟滞对指尖密封泄漏特性影响和指尖密封结构优化设计的研究提供了依据和理论基础。      

A cost driven predictive maintenance policy for structural airframe maintenance

Airframe maintenance is traditionally performed at scheduled maintenance stops.The decision to repair a fuselage panel is based on a fixed crack size threshold,which allows to ensure the aircraft safety until the next scheduled maintenance stop.With progress in sensor technology and data processing techniques,structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are increasingly being considered in the aviation industry.SHM systems track the aircraft health state continuously,lead ing to the possibility of planning maintenance based on an actual state of aircraft rather than on a fixed schedule.This paper builds upon a model-based prognostics framework that the authors developed in their previous work,which couples the Extended Kalman filter (EKF) with a first order perturbation (FOP) method.By using the information given by this prognostics method,a novel cost driven predictive maintenance (CDPM) policy is proposed,which ensures the aircraft safety while minimizing the maintenance cost.The proposed policy is formally derived based on the trade-off between probabilities of occurrence of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance.A numerical case study simulating the maintenance process of an entire fleet of aircrafts is imple mented.Under the condition of assuring the same safety level,the CDPM is compared in terms of cost with two other maintenance policies:scheduled maintenance and threshold based SHM maintenance.The comparison results show CDPM could lead to significant cost savings.     

Multi-target state estimation and track continuity for the particle PHD filter

Particle filter approaches for approximating the first-order moment of a joint, or probability hypothesis density (PHD), have demonstrated a feasible suboptimal method for tracking a time-varying number of targets in real-time. We consider two techniques for estimating the target states at each iteration, namely k-means clustering and mixture modelling via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We present novel techniques for associating the targets between frames to enable track continuity.     

Architectures and algorithms for track association and fusion

Target tracking using multiple sensors can provide better performance than using a single sensor. One approach to multiple target tracking with multiple sensors is to first perform single sensor tracking and then fuse the tracks from the different sensors. Two processing architectures for track fusion are presented: sensor to sensor track fusion, and sensor to system track fusion. Technical issues related to the statistical correlation between track estimation errors are discussed. Approaches for associating the tracks and combining the track state estimates of associated tracks that account for this correlation are described and compared by both theoretical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations     

Analysis tools for the evaluation of maintenance software

Test packages written for built-in test (BIT) and mobile automatic test equipment (ATE) systems for the forward support of electronic and thermal imaging equipment used by the British Army are currently scrutinized and subjected to objective tests by test package evaluation and acceptance teams (TPEATs) before being accepted for field use. This is a time-consuming and costly exercise that can result in the rejection of unsuitable software. The result of such rejection on equipment logistics is for reaching, since the hardware will enter service without adequate maintenance support. In an attempt to address this problem a suite of programs aimed at assisting the verification and validation activities of the TPEAT at every stage of the software life cycle from requirements analysis through to testing and acceptance is being devised. The development of these tools is discussed