Competitiveness of commercial space transportation services

Competition between the providers of space transportation has become intense with the distinct possibility of governments providing both direct and indirect subsidies in order to influence transportation user choices. This bodes well for users of transportation services but has serious ramifications with regard to the future makeup of the international space transportation industry. This paper addresses the following key issues: selecting a launch service given a decision to establish a business to provide satellite communication services; establishing the price that should be bid by a launch provider in order to have a specified chance of being awarded the launch contract; and assessing the possibility that a launch provider is utilizing unfair or predatory pricing in order to increase the likelihood of winning launch contracts and thereby increasing market share. A method is developed and results presented based upon establishing ‘value in use’ pricing that explicitly takes into account the multiple attributes of alternative launch services. This leads to an assessment of ‘predatory’ pricing in terms of the value in use pricing.     

Worldwide direct audio broadcasting from space : Promoting ‘Glasnost’ with DBS-A

About 100 countries now pursue their ‘public diplomacy’ interests by broadcasting audio programmes via shortwave to 400 000 000 radio listeners. However signals broadcast by surface-based shortwave transmitters are limited in coverage, reliability and quality, and shortwave broadcasting suffers from increasingly difficult operating and political problems. Space technology could now begin to be employed to create common-carrier, common-user (Intelsat- and Inmarsat-like) space-based systems which could provide a truly excellent, low-cost, direct-broadcast audio service throughout the world. The world's governments could thereby use space in a new way to promote ‘Glasnost-Openness’ for ‘the benefit of all mankind’.     

It''s all a matter of fact. After all, fact matters

The fourth annual ‘British Rocketry Oral History Project’ (BROHP) conference was held from 2 to 4 April 2002, again in the magnificent grounds of Charterhouse School in Surrey. The conference marked a new point in its brief history, enlarged in scope and depth to extend to a new audience; yet one point remained constant throughout, namely that ‘history matters’. This report discusses the themes of the 2002 conference.     

The commercial challenge to Arianespace: the TCI affair

The question of how far rockets used for commercial launch services are subsidised by their respective governments remains highly topical. This article traces the history of the first legal challenge to be made on this basis by a US launch service provider against Arianespace, a case which also called into question the pricing of the Space Shuttle. The perceptions, deliberations and negotiations of both sides are traced and it is noted that their most important outcome was not settlement of the case itself but agreement to start serious consultations on defining ‘rules of the road’ regarding government support to the commercial launch industry.     

BNSC/RAS Town Meeting

In London on 20 September, the British National Space Centre and the Royal Astronomical Society convened a ‘Town Meeting’, a usage picked up from NASA. Basically it was a debate without the competetive element, whose topic was the next two of the European Space Agency's four ‘Cornestone’ projects for the ‘Horizon 2000’ programme, total budget 584 million ECU (about £467 million). The question in September was which would be no. 3 and which no. 4. Duncan Lunan reports on the discussion and the choices made.     

Star wars brought to earth

This article considers the thinking behind, and the ramifications of, President Reagan's Star Wars ‘vision’. The author argues that the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) is incompatible with other aspects of the Reagan administration's own defence policies and that the ‘security shield’ version of it would make future US-Soviet arms agreements impossible. Only the so-called ‘prudent hedge’ research looks viable in the longer term. The SDI's main value will have been in bringing the USSR back to the negotiating table.     

Elexbus — An attractive technical solution for small mission opportunities

Responding to the demand for a ‘faster, cheaper, better’ implementation of space related services. Dornier Satellitensysteme GmbH has established and exercised an approach for the development and production of satellites and the corresponding ground equipment for small missions, referred to as Flexbus. It allows to support space service customers starting from mission engineering via design, development and manufacturing of the necessary hardware, the launch service and ending with the hand-over of the operational system. Flexbus harmonises a modular component concept with a sound design and development approach, as a whole providing the means to offer high quality products in a fairly short time and for competitive pricing. This paper will outline the major features of the Flexbus approach and describe application examples.     

A new paradigm for international cooperation in space exploration

In announcing a new Vision for the US space program, President George Bush committed the USA to “a long-term human and robotic program to explore the solar system”, via a return to the Moon, leading to exploration of Mars and other destinations. He also stated that other nations would be invited to join the vision. Many other nations have, or are developing, ‘exploration visions’ of their own. The potential for international cooperation therefore exists, both at the vision and program/project levels. This paper, based on Working Group discussions as part of an AIAA space cooperation workshop,¹ presents an approach for maximizing the return on all global investments in space exploration. It proposes an international coordination mechanism through which all these various national activities could be integrated into an inherently global enterprise for space exploration, a ‘virtual program of programs’. Within the context of the coordination, individual activities would utilize the full range of cooperative mechanisms for implementation. A significant benefit of this mode of conducting cooperation is that it would not require the negotiation of complex overarching international agreements as a precondition for initiating international activity.     

Leadership for new US strategic directions

Although faced with the new global challenges of terrorism and peer competition, the USA has been slow to adapt its cold war forces, and newer ‘warfighter’ strategy to meet them. Cyberspace and outer space offer the means to do this, via ‘responsive’ microsatellites and low-cost launchers, and broadband internet information and education services. The US military leadership is, however, not well enough versed in these technologies, with senior personnel largely lacking a space or technical background and having little appetite for change. If the USA is successfully to meet current challenges, it must first create a leadership that is technologically capable and philosophically attuned to change.     

The military in space : A historical relationship

The Deputy Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff offers some observations on the ‘militarization’ of space, arguing that military involvement does not necessarily mean an environment will become ‘weaponized’. He also comments on some future US space activities.     

Consideration of space activities by the UN general assembly

The thirty-ninth session of the United Nations General Assembly affirmed ‘that complete and general disarmament warrants that outer space should be used exclusively for peaceful purposes and that it shall not become an arena for an arms race’.This text appears in the first of two important resolutions concerning outer space adopted by the General Assembly during its last session. Also in the first resolution, entitled ‘Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space’ (A/39/59 of 12 December 1984), the Assembly called upon all states, particularly those with major space capabilities, to contribute actively to the objective of the peaceful uses of outer space and to take immediate measures to prevent an arms race in outer space in the interest of maintaining international peace and security and promoting international cooperation and understanding.     

Leading change at NASA: The case of Dan Goldin

Daniel Goldin set the record for longevity as administrator of NASA, serving from 1992 to 2001. Active and controversial, he was unusually visible as a self-proclaimed ‘agent of change’. Coping with a turbulent political environment, Goldin directed NASA from the end of the Cold War to the early 21st century. He effected change in the multitude of programs under his aegis, especially the Space Station and robotic Mars program. He was hailed at one point as a miracle worker and poster boy of government reinvention for his ‘faster, better, cheaper’ strategy of ‘doing more with less’. But Goldin left the agency under fire for cost overruns and reforms that reached too far. Using a policy innovation process approach, this paper traces Goldin's eventful years at NASA, his policy ends and administrative and technological means. It analyzes the record of success and failure of one of the most, influential administrators in NASA history. That record provides useful lessons for how an administrator gains, uses, and loses power in the US space policy system.     

ISU design projects : A new instrument for shaping global space policy?

The author argues that students attending the International Space University (ISU) are becoming a force to be reckoned with in space activities thanks to their enthusiasm, dedication and their Design Projects tackling major technological issues. This article reviews previous projects, before focusing on those of 1993 and 1994, and analyses whether they can be seen as agents for change in space policy making. Key ‘selling points’ are the ‘students’ non-rigid approach to thinking and doing, their refusal to believe in the intractability of any problem and the appeal their novel coalition may have for political leaders.     

Science in the national vision for space exploration: objectives and constituencies of the ‘discovery-driven’ paradigm

The NASA/White House Vision for Space Exploration is primarily focused on the development of human and robotic systems that will enable ‘discovery-driven’ investigations in areas important to the scientific community: Mars, the solar system's outer moons, and planets orbiting other stars. Such a portfolio can only be realized if NASA is prepared to target investment at opportunities that are most scientifically compelling. NASA's leaders will have to make decisions in subjective and uncertain environments about the relative long-term value of different kinds of scientific discoveries seen as equally important to different groups. A management paradigm of this kind will imply assessment of heterogeneous priorities and management of interdependent and changing requirements. In order to identify the basis and implications of a ‘discovery-driven’ paradigm, this paper surveys the relationship between the Vision's principles and its programmatic content, the objectives of the Vision's scientific focus areas and their interrelationships, and the public context in which science-focused exploration will proceed.     

The changing geopolitics of space activities

Traditional space relations among civilian space actors are undergoing in the post-cold war era a rapid evolution with a growing number of new institutional entities. The cold war era and its resulting political environment, which limited space cooperation to ‘intra-bloc’ cooperation, has disappeared, allowing the development of new axes and mechanisms of cooperation. The internationalization and regionalization of space activities witnessed in recent years is foreseen to gain momentum, leading therefore to a new geography of civilian space activities.     

A management approach for allocating instrument development resources

The Cassini Science Management Plan was developed for NASA's Cassini mission to Saturn to assist the Science Instrument Manager in guiding the development of the spacecraft's science payload. This plan, unlike previous development approaches, allocated the entire mass, power, data rate and budget resources for the science instruments to the Principal Investigators. The result removed the Cassini Project from adjudicating and reallocating resources for instrument development problems. Instrument development problems that did occur were resolved by the Principal Investigators themselves through the use of a ‘resource exchange’. The exchange allowed Principal Investigators to submit ‘bids’ (i.e. a request for resources) to a database. Principal Investigators were allowed to barter their own resources with other investigators. The resulting exchange or multilateral trade allowed the investigators to reallocate their resource to ‘better’ their current position.     

International cooperation in remote sensing for global change research: political and economic considerations

Activities concerning international cooperation in space-based remote sensing for global change research have for the most part focused on technical/functional aspects such as data harmonization, research project coordination, and sensor selection and deployment. Until fairly recently, little attention has been directed towards the various political and economic constraints which may act as ‘stumbling blocks’. A review of the contemporary international remote sensing milieu as it relates to the global change research agenda is presented. Several important political and economic conditions affecting this area are identified: (1) data access and pricing policies; (2) national security concerns; (3) developed/developing nation relations; and (4) inconsistent political/financial commitments. A set of recommendations is offered to enhance international cooperation in the use of space-based remote sensing data for global change research.     

Remote sensing of natural resources : Legal and political considerations for the Third World

A state's posture on remote sensing of the Earth by orbiting satellites varies depending upon whether it is a ‘sensing’ or a ‘sensed’ state, upon its present economic status, and upon its economic and political history. This article considers the international legal questions related to remote sensing and discusses the political aspects with special emphasis upon the views of the Third World. The author concludes that, unless Third World states and others who support them alter their views somewhat, it is probable that remote sensing of natural resources will continue without specific legal guidelines.     

Tackling the barriers to progress

Over 200 people attended the ‘International Business in Space’ conference, organized by the Center for Space Policy Inc, Cambridge, MA, USA, in Washington, DC, 9–11 January 1985. The official focus - commercial space developments in the USA, Canada, Europe and Japan - was somewhat of a misnomer. While US, Canadian and European views and interests were well represented, the Japanese element was almost completely absent. Virtually every category of organization likely to be involved in the ‘industrialization of space’ was strongly represented: government agencies, major and medium-sized aerospace companies, entrepreneurial space firms, and service organizations, eg consulting groups, law firms and financial institutions. Not surprisingly at this stage, attendance by non-aerospace potential users of space was very weak. This report highlights two major themes - international cooperation and the role of overnments.     

From initial ideas to a European plan: GMES as an exemplar of European space strategy

Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) is an idea which originated during a meeting in Baveno, Italy, in May 1998, which generated a call for Europe to get its act together in the field of environmental monitoring from space, to define a well articulated strategy in this area and to build upon its excellent scientific research community, its proven technical prowess in Earth observation from space and its nascent political will to express its objectives in international fora related to climate change and other global environment topics. While Europe was already active in the most advanced areas of global monitoring, its rather uncoordinated efforts (even within the European Commission) lacked visibility and did not appear to fit into a clearly established strategy. The ‘Baveno initiative’ was an attempt to remedy this situation and find a place within a developing ‘European Strategy for Space’, which requires ESA and the European Union to work more closely together. GMES was extended to include the ‘security’ (in its wider sense) aspects of global monitoring, a move that produced a number of questions and misunderstandings, but which allowed many in Europe to realize that monitoring the activities of the Earth’ land masses, oceans and atmosphere do include a security dimension. GMES will eventually incorporate an implementation plan which will call upon various monitoring techniques, ambitious modelling projects and connections with society's more urgent requirements with respect to environmental protection and prevention or reduction of risks related to natural hazards. This will entail significant efforts to inform the user communities and to convince them of the relevance and usefulness of this initiative. It will also provide a sound basis for the European contribution to the new initiative for improved coordination of strategies and systems for Earth observations called for by the July 2003 Earth Observation Summit.