Chebyshev不等式在空间碎片碰撞概率置信度中的应用

空间碎片的碰撞预警与规避能有效避免碰撞事件的发生.碰撞概率是碰撞预警的主要判据,也是航天器规避机动决策的主要依据.由于计算碰撞概率的各相关参数带有误差,导致计算得到的碰撞概率值并不准确,难以做出规避机动决策,因此评估碰撞概率值的可信程度是亟需解决的问题.本文给出了一种碰撞概率置信度的计算方法,利用各影响参数的标准差,通过误差传递的方法计算碰撞概率的标准差,结合单边Chebyshev不等式,给出碰撞概率值大于10-4阈值时的置信度,并结合实际案例进行了分析.      

空间目标预警阈值确定分析

针对目前通常采用计算碰撞概率来进行空间目标碰撞预警的方法,为提高其评判标准的精度以达到提高航天器精准预警的目的,分析了目前空间目标碰撞概率阈值确定过程的总体框架.对阈值确定过程中所涉及的误差协方差矩阵确定方法、碰撞概率计算以及碎片通量计算方法进行了研究.以国际空间站（ISS）为例,通过计算其所在空间的碎片通量,分析其轨道受空间环境的影响情况,并与早期结果进行比较,得出其以往的碰撞概率阈值可能被高估的结论.      

基于拉普拉斯变换的空间目标碰撞概率计算方法

碰撞概率是空间碎片碰撞预警中评判碰撞发生可能性大小的重要依据,对航天器机动规避具有重要意义。基于拉普拉斯变换的碰撞概率计算方法利用拉普拉斯变换以及幂级数的定义,推导了在短时间接近情况下碰撞概率的幂级数表达式,分析了碰撞概率的截断误差并确定了在不同精度要求下的幂级数项数。针对2009年美俄卫星的碰撞事件,将基于拉普拉斯变换的碰撞概率计算结果与Chan方法、Monte Carlo方法的计算结果进行比较,验证了基于拉普拉斯变换方法在计算精度上的优势。      

空间碎片预警中的碰撞概率方法研究

由于空间碎片对飞行在地球轨道上的航天器危害日益严重,所以必须采取一些有效的防护措施,对于那些直径大于10 cm的碎片,通常是采用主动规避的方法来进行防护.为了避免传统的Box判据造成的过多错误预警,碰撞概率模型开始被应用于空间碎片预警,本文以空间站为例,将碰撞概率方法与传统Box区域判定法进行比较,介绍碰撞概率计算模型的建立方法,基于位置误差矩阵的碰撞概率Pc的算法,并针对实际交会事例进行了计算和分析.      

基于模糊应力—强度模型的空间系绳碰撞可靠性

空间系绳系统由于其特殊的组成结构日益受到关注,空间系绳的碰撞可靠性研究是系绳任务设计的重要一环.本文采用可靠性分析基本原理中的应力—强度模型,根据近地轨道的空间碎片通量和泊松分布方法,进行空间系绳在轨碰撞可靠性的研究分析.根据对空间系绳碰撞可靠性有影响的系绳结构因素,即单股系绳的直径、长度,双股系绳的绳间距、碰撞角等,对空间碎片撞击切割系绳后碰撞点处的系绳剩余截面进行建模,利用模糊应力—强度模型计算空间系绳在撞击后发生毁灭性碰撞的概率,进而根据泊松方法计算空间系绳在轨可靠性随时间的变化,通过仿真分析,对比不同结构空间系绳的有效在轨时间.      

Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

The Earth orbital environment is drastically changing due to an intensification of the space activities. In particular, several projects of large constellations, proposed for the next years for communications purpose like global internet access, Internet of Things, or for Earth observations, will lead to the deployment of several thousands of new satellites at an unprecedented rate. It is a crucial challenge for space traffic management, which will deal with a great number of satellite conjunctions, potentially causing a collision with damaging consequences for the constellation itself and the space environment sustainability.In this paper, we investigate the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability for each referenced constellation. For this purpose, we compute the orbital evolution of satellites in different constellations during the lifecycle, from the deployment to the decommissioning, and we apply the CUBE algorithm and the Foster method to assess the collision probability with the background space debris population assuming a constant uncertainty in position. We show the variation of risk defined by the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability as a function of the proposed configuration. In particular, satellites of the Iridium and Kuiper constellation, but also satellite of the Telesat constellation on polar orbits are the most exposed at a collision. Moreover, the decommissioning phase contribute for a major part to the final cumulative collision probability.     

Cosmic dust measurements in lunar orbit

On 15th February 1992, ISAS space engineering satellite HITEN was successfully inserted into an elliptical orbit around the moon with perilune between some 100 km and 8000 km and apolune of about 50.000 km. On board was a small scientific experiment designed to detect cosmic dust particles, MDC - Munich Dust Counter. During a period of more than one year, until Hiten's hard landing on the moon surface at 10th of April 1993 (UTC), measurements of impact velocity, mass and crude flight direction of micrometeoroid particles have been performed. In total 150 cosmic dust impacts were detected and evaluated. From these measurements, the impact rate versus time and the dust flux versus distance from the moon are derived. The evidence of moon ejecta and some indications of particles which are orbiting the moon will be discussed. The spatial distribution of the measured particles is shown in lunarcentric as well as in heliocentric coordinate systems. The directional distribution is also given, showing the different populations of cosmic dust particles. Finally, the gathered data will be compared with previous results from measurements in the vicinity of the Earth and in the geomagnetic tail region.     

故障模式下的空间交会防撞设计

  针对轨道平面内某一方向发动机失效的情况,利用控制力的耦合效应,设计了航天器轨道转移的控制律。利用碰撞概率分析航天器发生碰撞的可能性,并结合燃料消耗选择一条碰撞概率小于给定的警戒值且燃料最优的转移轨道。最后通过仿真验证了发动机失效情况下的主动防撞机动控制律的有效性。     

Progress in Space Debris Research

During recent years, A de-orbit disposal of SinoSat 2 satellite and the depletion of the residual propellant after SC/LV separation for all LM-4 series launch vehicles were carried out. Stuffed Whipple Shields based on hypervelocity impact particles were developed. Routine observation and collision avoidance were performed. The main progress in space debris research will be introduced from three aspects: mitigation, spacecraft protection, observation and collision avoidance.      

空间系绳碎片碰撞生存能力研究

空间系绳结构和几何尺寸对其在复杂空间环境中抵抗碎片碰撞的能力有显著影响.本文根据系绳-碎片碰撞模型和泊松分布,计算了双股系绳和带状系绳被碎片割断的概率,分析了太空碎片对系绳生存能力可能造成的影响.双股系绳是由两条平行系绳每隔一段距离打结连接构成,带状系绳可视为一种横截面为矩形的特殊单股系绳.首先对单股系绳被碎片割断的概率进行建模,然后构建双股系绳和带状系绳生存能力函数,最后根据空间碎片环境模型,对比分析具有不同结构、不同尺寸的系绳的生存能力.仿真结果表明,相较于单股系绳,双股系绳和带状系绳的生存能力有明显提高.      

Active space debris charging for contactless electrostatic disposal maneuvers

The remote charging of a passive object using an electron beam enables touchless re-orbiting of large space debris from geosynchronous orbit (GEO) using electrostatic forces. The advantage of this method is that it can operate with a separation distance of multiple craft radii, thus reducing the risk of collision. The charging of the tug–debris system to high potentials is achieved by active charge transfer using a directed electron beam. Optimal potential distributions using isolated- and coupled-sphere models are discussed. A simple charging model takes into account the primary electron beam current, ultra-violet radiation induced photoelectron emission, collection of plasma particles, secondary electron emission and the recapture of emitted particles. The results show that through active charging in a GEO space environment high potentials can be both achieved and maintained with about a 75% transfer efficiency. Further, the maximum electrostatic tractor force is shown to be insensitive to beam current levels. This latter later result is important when considering debris with unknown properties.     

基于随机点模拟方法分析空间目标危险交会

基于SGP4模型在空间目标轨道预报中的应用, 在预报的位置速度信息和误差 信息基础上, 提出一种空间两目标碰撞预警的分析方法, 即随机点模拟方法. 与传统的交会平面积分方法相比, 其主要有两点不同: 一是在误差信息中考虑 了误差均值的影响, 即误差椭球不再以预报位置为中心分布; 二是在分析方 法上侧重于真实模拟可能的交会情形, 而不忽略任一方向上的误差. 通过算例分 析验证了该方法的可行性, 结果表明误差均值的非零性使得最大碰撞概率不 一定出现在预报的最近交会距离时刻. 同时仿真结果还表明, 两目标在相对速 度方向上的相对位置仍然存在误差, 这可能造成随机点模拟的碰撞概率计算 值较交会平面积分方法偏小. 不同的碰撞预警分析方法对应不同的预警门限, 根据文中实例, 初步确定10-6为随机点模拟方法的红色预警值.      

Theoretical model of HZE particle fragmentation by hydrogen targets.

The fragmenting of high energy, heavy ions (HZE particles) by hydrogen targets is an important, physical process in several areas of space radiation research. In this work quantum mechanical optical model methods for estimating cross sections for HZE particle fragmentation by hydrogen targets are presented. The cross sections are calculated using a modified abrasion-ablation collision formalism adapted from a nucleus-nucleus collision model. Elemental and isotopic production cross sections are estimated and compared with report measurements for the breakup of neon, sulphur, and iron, nuclei at incident energies between 400 and 910 MeV/nucleon. Good agreement between theory and experiment is obtained.     

卫星规避方案量化分析方法研究

空间碎片数量日益增多,为保护在轨卫星的运行安全,需要针对碎片碰撞制定规避方案,用来规避碰撞风险.本文在调研国外卫星规避机动流程的基础上,分别研究了卫星规避相关的轨道机动方式、轨道预报模型以及交会风险计算模型,建立了卫星规避方案量化分析方法,为规避方案的选择提供参考.      

交叉航路航空器碰撞风险评估

在与经典的Reich模型进行比较后,对一种基于事件的交叉航路航空器碰撞风险模型进行了改进,补充考虑了处于平飞阶段的航空器因在垂直方向上相对运动而导致的碰撞风险.分析了其水平碰撞概率较Reich模型所得结果保守的原因,采用蒙特卡洛仿真的方法产生了两架航空器之间的相对位置误差数据,针对多个概率分布模型进行了拟合,比较了不同概率分布模型对航空器碰撞风险的影响.结果表明:代表严重误差的尾部数据直接决定了航空器碰撞风险,但因为其数据较少,所以除广义帕累托分布外,其他分布都不能很好地对尾部数据进行拟合.     

空间目标碰撞预警的协方差计算与应用

碰撞概率是碰撞预警工程中空间目标危险交会的重要判据之一,其计算精度会受到预报协方差计算精度的影响. 本文统计计算了两种形式的预报协方差. 一是利用精密数值预报模型对卫星精密根数进行预报,将预报根数与精密根数的差作为样本,统计得出1～7天不同预报期的预报协方差;二是采用 SGP4/SDP4预报模型对TLE数据进行预报,将预报根数与TLE根数的差作为样本,统计得出1～7d不同预报期的预报协方差. 分别分析两种方法中包含变轨过程和无变轨情况下的轨道预报精度. 结合2012年某低轨道卫星的危险交会,分析了采用不同协方差时,协方差精度对碰撞预警精度的影响. 协方差计算可为实际碰撞预警工程提供参考.      

Current status of the BepiColombo/MMO spacecraft design

This paper shows the current baseline of the conceptual design of the BepiColombo/MMO (mercury magnetospheric orbiter) spacecraft, which is conducted by the ISAS Mercury Exploration Working Group. The MMO is a spinning spacecraft of 200 kg mass whose spin axis is nearly perpendicular to the Mercury orbital plane. The current status of the overall MMO system and subsystems such as thermal control, communication, power, etc. are described. The latest status of the development of critical technologies for the MMO and the outline of the international cooperation between ESA and ISAS are also presented.     

数据收集系统的电文碰撞和计算机模拟

数据收集系统是利用人造卫星中继地球环境资料的一种无线电遥测系统。近地卫星(如美国的陆地卫星、泰罗斯-N气象卫星)所属的数据收集系统一般都采取随机取数的方法。在这类系统设计中,电文碰撞规律是涉及到系统容量的重要问题。本文在古典概率的基础上,经适当修改,得到符合计算机模拟结果的理论公式。并提供针对不同系统方案的电文碰撞概率的计算方法。      

1998年9月24日地磁暴前宇宙线各向异性特性分析

分析了日本Nagoya 宇宙线闪烁体望远镜30°, 49°, 64° 倾角的东、西、南、北方向探测数据的变化特点, 运用小波分析方法定性地探讨了磁暴前后宇宙线南北、东西各向异性的变化特征. 研究发现, 当发 生大地磁暴时, 地面宇宙线强度的各向异性特征将发生非常大的变化, 这种变化一般在磁暴发生前10~20 h就开始出现. 当描述这种各向异性特征的各向异性指数的小波系数变化达到一定阈值时, 就可能有大地磁暴发生.      

水介质中降落球形塑料颗粒与静止气泡的 黏附行为

为了揭示球形塑料颗粒在气泡表面的黏附行为及机理,采用高速摄影仪对自由降落的球形塑料颗粒与固定在水槽中静止气泡的黏附过程进行拍摄,利用图像处理方法提取颗粒黏附过程运动特性曲线及碰撞角与运动时间的关系,研究颗粒碰撞位置、颗粒和气泡直径对黏附行为的影响。实验结果表明:颗粒的黏附主要分为碰撞黏附和滑动黏附,气泡表面的滑动壁面假设与实验值的吻合度较高。此外,通过对实验数据的统计发现,随着碰撞角的增大,感应时间明显增长,但是颗粒陷入气泡表面的时间基本维持在10 ms,颗粒陷入气泡的深度受气泡和颗粒尺寸的共同影响,约占气泡与颗粒直径之和的2%。