Fast solar radiation pressure modelling with ray tracing and multiple reflections

Physics based SRP (Solar Radiation Pressure) models using ray tracing methods are powerful tools when modelling the forces on complex real world space vehicles. Currently high resolution (1?mm) ray tracing with secondary intersections is done on high performance computers at UCL (University College London). This study introduces the BVH (Bounding Volume Hierarchy) into the ray tracing approach for physics based SRP modelling and makes it possible to run high resolution analysis on personal computers. The ray tracer is both general and efficient enough to cope with the complex shape of satellites and multiple reflections (three or more, with no upper limit). In this study, the traditional ray tracing technique is introduced in the first place and then the BVH is integrated into the ray tracing. Four aspects of the ray tracer were tested for investigating the performance including runtime, accuracy, the effects of multiple reflections and the effects of pixel array resolution.Test results in runtime on GPS IIR and Galileo IOV (In Orbit Validation) satellites show that the BVH can make the force model computation 30–50 times faster. The ray tracer has an absolute accuracy of several nanonewtons by comparing the test results for spheres and planes with the analytical computations. The multiple reflection effects are investigated both in the intersection number and acceleration on GPS IIR, Galileo IOV and Sentinel-1 spacecraft. Considering the number of intersections, the 3rd reflection can capture $99.12\%\text{,}99.14\%$, and $91.34\%$ of the total reflections for GPS IIR, Galileo IOV satellite bus and the Sentinel-1 spacecraft respectively. In terms of the multiple reflection effects on the acceleration, the secondary reflection effect for Galileo IOV satellite and Sentinel-1 can reach 0.2?$\text{nm}/{\text{s}}^2$ and 0.4?$\text{nm}/{\text{s}}^2$ respectively. The error percentage in the accelerations magnitude results show that the 3rd reflection should be considered in order to make it less than $0.035\%$. The pixel array resolution tests show that the dimensions of the components have to be considered when choosing the spacing of the pixel in order not to miss some components of the satellite in ray tracing. This paper presents the first systematic and quantitative study of the secondary and higher order intersection effects. It shows conclusively the effect is non-negligible for certain classes of misson.     

An analytical model of prominence dynamics

Solar prominences are magnetic structures incarcerating cool and dense gas in an otherwise hot solar corona. Prominences can be categorized as quiescent and active. Their origin and the presence of cool gas ($～{10}^4$?K) within the hot ($～{10}^6\text{K}$) solar corona remains poorly understood. The structure and dynamics of solar prominences was investigated in a large number of observational and theoretical (both analytical and numerical) studies. In this paper, an analytic model of quiescent solar prominence is developed and used to demonstrate that the prominence velocity increases exponentially, which means that some gas falls downward towards the solar surface, and that Alfvén waves are naturally present in the solar prominences. These theoretical predictions are consistent with the current observational data of solar quiescent prominences.     

An estimation of Envisat’s rotational state accounting for the precession of its rotational axis caused by gravity-gradient torque

The rotational state of Envisat is re-estimated using the specular glint times in optical observation data obtained from 2013 to 2015. The model is simplified to a uniaxial symmetric model with the first order variation of its angular momentum subject to a gravity-gradient torque causing precession around the normal of the orbital plane. The sense of Envisat’s rotation can be derived from observational data, and is found to be opposite to the sense of its orbital motion. The rotational period is estimated to be $(120.674\pm 0.068)·\exp \left((4.5095\pm 0.0096)\times {10}^{-4}·t\right)\text{s}$, where t is measured in days from the beginning of 2013. The standard deviation is 0.760?s, making this the best fit obtained for Envisat in the literature to date. The results demonstrate that the angle between the angular momentum vector and the negative normal of the orbital plane librates around a mean value of $8.53°\pm 0.42°$ with an amplitude from about $0.7°$ (in 2013) to $0.5°$ (in 2015), with the libration period equal to the precession period of the angular momentum, from about 4.8?days (in 2013) to 3.4?days (in 2015). The ratio of the minimum to maximum principal moments of inertia is estimated to be $0.0818\pm 0.0011$, and the initial longitude of the angular momentum in the orbital coordinate system is $40.5°\pm 9.3°$. The direction of the rotation axis derived from our results at September 23, 2013, UTC 20:57 is similar to the results obtained from satellite laser ranging data but about $20°$ closer to the negative normal of the orbital plane.     

Simulation-based evaluation of a cold atom interferometry gradiometer concept for gravity field recovery

The prospects of future satellite gravimetry missions to sustain a continuous and improved observation of the gravitational field have stimulated studies of new concepts of space inertial sensors with potentially improved precision and stability. This is in particular the case for cold-atom interferometry (CAI) gradiometry which is the object of this paper. The performance of a specific CAI gradiometer design is studied here in terms of quality of the recovered gravity field through a closed-loop numerical simulation of the measurement and processing workflow. First we show that mapping the time-variable field on a monthly basis would require a noise level below $5\text{mE}/\sqrt{\text{Hz}}$. The mission scenarios are therefore focused on the static field, like GOCE. Second, the stringent requirement on the angular velocity of a one-arm gradiometer, which must not exceed ${10}^{-6}$?rad/s, leads to two possible modes of operation of the CAI gradiometer: the nadir and the quasi-inertial mode. In the nadir mode, which corresponds to the usual Earth-pointing satellite attitude, only the gradient $V_{\mathit{yy}}$, along the cross-track direction, is measured. In the quasi-inertial mode, the satellite attitude is approximately constant in the inertial reference frame and the 3 diagonal gradients $V_{\mathit{xx}}\text{,}{V}_{\mathit{yy}}$ and $V_{\mathit{zz}}$ are measured. Both modes are successively simulated for a 239?km altitude orbit and the error on the recovered gravity models eventually compared to GOCE solutions. We conclude that for the specific CAI gradiometer design assumed in this paper, only the quasi-inertial mode scenario would be able to significantly outperform GOCE results at the cost of technically challenging requirements on the orbit and attitude control.     

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of ionospheric TEC disturbances as non-stationary processes

We model regular and irregular variation of ionospheric total electron content as stationary and non-stationary processes, respectively. We apply the method developed to SCINDA GPS data set observed at Bahir Dar, Ethiopia $\left(11.6°\text{N,}37.4°\text{E}\right)$. We use hierarchical Bayesian inversion with Gaussian Markov random process priors, and we model the prior parameters in the hyperprior. We use Matérn priors via stochastic partial differential equations, and use scaled $\text{Inv}-{\chi }^2$ hyperpriors for the hyperparameters. For drawing posterior estimates, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods: Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-within-Gibbs for parameter and hyperparameter estimations, respectively. This allows us to quantify model parameter estimation uncertainties as well. We demonstrate the applicability of the method proposed using a synthetic test case. Finally, we apply the method to real GPS data set, which we decompose to regular and irregular variation components. The result shows that the approach can be used as an accurate ionospheric disturbance characterization technique that quantifies the total electron content variability with corresponding error uncertainties.     

Effects of space weather on the ionosphere and LEO satellites’ orbital trajectory in equatorial,low and middle latitude

We study the effects of space weather on the ionosphere and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites’ orbital trajectory in equatorial, low- and mid-latitude (EQL, LLT and MLT) regions during (and around) the notable storms of October/November, 2003. We briefly review space weather effects on the thermosphere and ionosphere to demonstrate that such effects are also latitude-dependent and well established. Following the review we simulate the trend in variation of satellite’s orbital radius (r), mean height (h) and orbit decay rate (ODR) during 15 October–14 November 2003 in EQL, LLT and MLT. Nominal atmospheric drag on LEO satellite is usually enhanced by space weather or solar-induced variations in thermospheric temperature and density profile. To separate nominal orbit decay from solar-induced accelerated orbit decay, we compute $r\text{,}h$ and ODR in three regimes viz. (i) excluding solar indices (or effect), where $r=r_0\text{,}h=h_0$ and $\mathit{ODR}={\mathit{ODR}}_0$ (ii) with mean value of solar indices for the interval, where $r=r_m\text{,}h=h_m$ and $\mathit{ODR}={\mathit{ODR}}_m$ and (iii) with actual daily values of solar indices for the interval ($r\text{,}h$ and ODR). For a typical LEO satellite at h?=?450?km, we show that the total decay in r during the period is about 4.20?km, 3.90?km and 3.20?km in EQL, LLT and MLT respectively; the respective nominal decay ($r_0$) is 0.40?km, 0.34?km and 0.22?km, while solar-induced orbital decay ($r_m$) is about 3.80?km, 3.55?km and 2.95?km. h also varied in like manner. The respective nominal ${\mathit{ODR}}_0$ is about 13.5?m/day, 11.2?m/day and 7.2?m/day, while solar-induced ${\mathit{ODR}}_m$ is about 124.3?m/day, 116.9?m/day and 97.3?m/day. We also show that severe geomagnetic storms can increase ODR by up to 117% (from daily mean value). However, the extent of space weather effects on LEO Satellite’s trajectory significantly depends on the ballistic co-efficient and orbit of the satellite, and phase of solar cycles, intensity and duration of driving (or influencing) solar event.     

Vertical and radial metallicity gradients in high latitude galactic fields with SDSS

We used the ugr magnitudes of 1437467 F-G type main-sequence stars with metal abundance $-2?[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}]?+0.2$ dex and estimated radial and vertical metallicity gradients for high Galactic-latitude fields, $50°<b?90°$ and $0°<l?360°$, of the Milky Way Galaxy. The radial metallicity gradient $d[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}]/\mathit{dR}=-0.042\pm 0.011$ dex kpc^?1 estimated for the stars with $1.31<z\le 1.74$ kpc is attributed to the thin-disc population. While, the radial gradients evaluated for stars at higher vertical distances are close to zero indicating that the thick disc and halo have not undergone a radial collapse phase at least at high Galactic latitudes. The vertical metallicity gradients estimated for stars with three different Galactic latitudes, $50°<b?65°,65°<b?80°$ and $80°<b?90°$ do not show a strong indication for Galactic latitude dependence of our gradients. The thin disc, $0.5<z?2$ kpc, with a vertical metallicity gradient $d\left[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}\right]/\mathit{dz}=-0.308\pm 0.018$ dex kpc^?1, is dominant only in galactocentric distance interval $6<R?10$ kpc, while the thick disc ($2<z?5$ kpc) could be observed in the intervals $6<R?10$ and $10<R?15$ kpc with compatible vertical metallicity gradients, i.e. $d\left[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}\right]/\mathit{dz}=-0.164\pm 0.014$ dex kpc^?1 and $d\left[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}\right]/\mathit{dz}=-0.172\pm 0.016$ dex kpc^?1. Five vertical metallicity gradients are estimated for the halo ($z>5$ kpc) in three galactocentric distance intervals, $6<R?10,10<R?15$ and $15<R?20$ kpc. The first one corresponding to the interval $6<R?10$ kpc is equal to $d\left[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}\right]/\mathit{dz}=-0.023\pm 0.006$ dex kpc^?1, while the others at larger galactocentric distances are close to zero. We derived synthetic vertical metallicity gradients for 2,230,167 stars and compared them with the observed ones. There is a good agreement between the two sets of vertical metallicity gradients for the thin disc, while they are different for the thick disc. For the halo, the conspicuous difference corresponds to the galactocentric distance interval $6<R?10$ kpc, while they are compatible at higher galactocentric distance intervals.     

The influence of the spatial and temporal collocation windows on the comparisons of the ionospheric characteristic parameters derived from COSMIC radio occultation and digisondes

GPS radio occultation (RO) ionospheric products obtained by Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission during the year of 2014 and the observations from 3 digisonde stations which are located at different latitudes are used to study the influence of different time and space collocation windows on the comparisons of the ionospheric characteristic parameters (ICPs), including the peak density and peak height, derived from the two techniques. The results show that the correlation coefficients (CC) and the standard deviation of the absolute biases (SDAB) between the ICPs derived from the two techniques vary distinctly under different spatial and time collocation windows. Generally, the CC (SDAB) of the ICPs decrease (increase) as the size of the collocation window increases in time dimension or in space dimension. The rate of change of the statistic parameters with the increase in the size of the collocation window in time dimension and space dimension is analyzed for each digisonde station. It is found that within the collocation window of $\left(60\mathrm{m}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n},{20}^{°},{20}^{°}\right)$, the influence of the increase of $1^{°}$ in the space window on the statistical comparison is much more significant than that of the increase of 1?min in the time window, and it is suggested that there can be appropriate relaxation on the time window within the threshold of 60?min to get a balance between the quality of the comparison results and the number of the matched pairs. In addition, it is found that the same variations in the longitude window and in the latitude window may have different influences on the comparison results when the horizontal gradients in electron density are distinctly different along different directions at the digisonde station, and strict space collocation window is preferred when comparing the observations from COSMIC RO with those from the digisonde station in such cases.     

A combination method using evolutionary algorithms in initial orbit determination for too short arc

With the combination of two evolutionary algorithms EDA and DE, a new method of initial orbit determination for satellites based on ground-based too-short-arc is established. Compared with other algorithms, the proposed method focuses on the most densely populated region in the solution space rather than the individual with best fitness value. Both the global information and local information are well fused in the search of optimum. In the method $(a,e,M)$ are treated as variables of the optimization, and the optimization procedure is carried out as a two-stage hierarchical optimization problem which has three variables for each stage. Kernel density estimation is applied to build the probability distribution model without any assumptions of the specified distribution, accompanied by handling semi-major axis and eccentricity as a pair of dependent variables in the construction of the probability for the correlation between them in the practice. Numerical experiments with real ground-based observations show that the proposed method is applicable to too-short-arc with even 3?s, and the result of bias in several kilometers can be achieved with $5^{″}$ error added to angular measurements.     

Modelling ionospheric vertical drifts over Africa low latitudes using Empirical Orthogonal functions and comparison with climatological model

For the first time, empirical model of daytime vertical $\mathbf{E}\times \mathbf{B}$ drift based on Empirical Orthogonal functions (EOF) decomposition technique is presented. Day-to-day variability of $\mathbf{E}\times \mathbf{B}$ drift inferred from horizontal (H) geomagnetic field data around dip latitude for the period of 2008–2013 is used to both develop and validate the model. Results show that the EOF technique is promising with modelled values and data giving correlation coefficient values of at least 0.90 for geomagnetic conditions of both $K_p?3$ and $K_p>3$ within 2008–2013. Independent model validation shows that in situ $\mathbf{E}\times \mathbf{B}$ values from ion velocity meter (IVM) instrument on-board C/NOFS satellite are closer to model $\mathbf{E}\times \mathbf{B}$ estimates than the climatological Scherliess-Fejer (SF) model incorporated within the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI).     

Study of VLF wave with relativistic effect in Saturn magnetosphere in the presence of parallel A.C. electric field

Cassini radio and plasma wave surveys aim to study radio emissions, plasma waves, thermal plasma and dust near Saturn. Using the characteristic solution and dynamics method, the influence of electron beam on the loss cone and bi-Maxwellian distribution of whistler mode waves in the parallel alternating electric field and magnetic field is studied. The dispersion relation and the growth rate of Saturn's magnetic layer were deduced and calculated in detail. Parameter analysis is performed by changing the parameters of the plasma like number density, AC frequency, temperature anisotropy, etc. The influence of AC frequency on Doppler shift and the comparative study of growth rate of oblique and parallel propagating waves are analyzed using generalized distribution function. We found temperature anisotropy ${\text{A}}_{\text{T}}=1.25$ can explain the linear spatiotemporal growth rate of whistler mode waves. It provides the majority of the observed frequency integral power. It can be seen that the effective parameters for the generation of Whistler mode waves are not only temperature anisotropy, but also the relativistic factors discussed in the results and discussion section, and the AC field frequency and width of the loss cone distribution function.     

First solar observations with ALMA

The Atacama Large Millimeter-Submillimeter Array (ALMA) has opened a new window for studying the Sun via high-resolution high-sensitivity imaging at millimeter wavelengths. In this contribution I review the capabilities of the instrument for solar observing and describe the extensive effort taken to bring the possibility of solar observing with ALMA to the scientific community. The first solar ALMA observations were carried out during 2014 and 2015 in two ALMA bands, Band 3 ($\lambda =3$?mm) and Band 6 ($\lambda =1.3$?mm), in single-dish and interferometric modes, using single pointing and mosaicing observing techniques, with spatial resolution up to $～$2″ and $～$1″ in the two bands, respectively. I overview several recently published studies which made use of the first solar ALMA observations, describe current status of solar observing with ALMA and briefly discuss the future capabilities of the instrument.     

An application of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient to solar compact and eruptive events

We propose to apply the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (${\mathit{WG}}_M$), introduced in Korsós et al., 2015, for analysing the pre-flare and pre-CME behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs) using the SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data catalogue. To demonstrate the power of investigative capabilities of the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ method, in terms of flare and CME eruptions, we studied two typical ARs, namely, AR 12158 and AR 12192. The choice of ARs represent canonical cases. AR 12158 produced an X1.6 flare with fast “halo” CME ($v_{\mathit{linear}}$ = 1267 $\text{km}{\text{s}}^{-1}$) while in AR 12192 there occurred a range of powerful X-class eruptions, i.e. X1.1, X1.6, X3.1, X1.0, X2.0 and X2.0-class energetic flares, interestingly, none with an accompanying CME. The value itself and temporal variation of ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ is found to possess potentially important diagnostic information about the intensity of the expected flare class. Furthermore, we have also estimated the flare onset time from the relationship of duration of converging and diverging motions of the area-weighted barycenters of two subgroups of opposite magnetic polarities. This test turns out not only to provide information about the intensity of the expected flare-class and the flare onset time but may also indicate whether a flare will occur with/without fast CME. We have also found that, in the case when the negative polarity barycenter has moved around and the positive one “remained” at the same coordinates preceding eruption, the flare occurred with fast “halo” CME. Otherwise, when both the negative and the positive polarity barycenters have moved around, the AR produced flares without CME. If these properties found for the movement of the barycenters are generic pre-cursors of CME eruption (or lack of it), identifying them may serve as an excellent pre-condition for refining the forecast of the lift-off of CMEs.     

Physical characterization of the deep-space debris WT1190F: A testbed for advanced SSA techniques

We report on extensive ${\mathit{BVR}}_c{I}_c$ photometry and low-resolution ($\lambda /\mathrm{\Delta }\lambda ～250$) spectroscopy of the deep-space debris WT1190F, which impacted Earth offshore from Sri Lanka, on 2015 November 13. In spite of its likely artificial origin (as a relic of some past lunar mission), the case offered important points of discussion for its suggestive connection with the envisaged scenario for a (potentially far more dangerous) natural impactor, like an asteroid or a comet.Our observations indicate for WT1190F an absolute magnitude $R_c={32.45}_{\pm 0.31}$, with a flat dependence of reflectance on the phase angle, such as ${\mathit{dR}}_c/d?～{0.007}_{\pm 2}$?mag?deg^?1. The detected short-timescale variability suggests that the body was likely spinning with a period twice the nominal figure of $P_{\mathrm{flash}}={1.4547}_{\pm 0.0005}\mathrm{s}$, as from the observed lightcurve. In the ${\mathit{BVR}}_c{I}_c$ color domain, WT1190F closely resembled the Planck deep-space probe. This match, together with a depressed reflectance around 4000 and 8500 Å may be suggestive of a “grey” (aluminized) surface texture.The spinning pattern remained in place also along the object fiery entry in the atmosphere, a feature that may have partly shielded the body along its fireball phase perhaps leading a large fraction of its mass to survive intact, now lying underwater along a tight ($～1\times 80$?km) strip of sea, at a depth of 1500?m or less.Under the assumption of Lambertian scatter, an inferred size of ${216}_{\pm 30}/\sqrt{\alpha /0.1}$?cm is obtained for WT1190F. By accounting for non-gravitational dynamical perturbations, the Area-to-Mass ratio of the body was in the range $(0.006?\mathit{AMR}?0.011)$?m²?kg^?1.Both these figures resulted compatible with the two prevailing candidates to WT1190F’s identity, namely the Athena II Trans-Lunar Injection Stage of the Lunar Prospector mission, and the ascent stage of the Apollo 10 lunar module, callsign “Snoopy”. Both candidates have been analyzed in some detail here through accurate 3D CAD design mockup modelling and BRDF reflectance rendering to derive the inherent photometric properties to be compared with the observations.     

Multi-instrument observations of large-scale atmospheric gravity waves/traveling ionospheric disturbances associated with enhanced auroral activity over Svalbard

This study reports on observations of large-scale atmospheric gravity waves/traveling ionospheric disturbances (AGWs/TIDs) using Global Positioning System (GPS) total electron content (TEC) and Fabry–Perot Interferometer’s (FPI’s) intensity of oxygen red line emission at 630?nm measurements over Svalbard on the night of 6 January 2014. TEC large-scale TIDs have primary periods ranging between 29 and 65?min and propagate at a mean horizontal velocity of $～$749–761?m/s with azimuth of $～$345–347$°$ (which corresponds to poleward propagation direction). On the other hand, FPI large-scale AGWs have larger periods of $～$42–142?min. These large-scale AGWs/TIDs were linked to enhanced auroral activity identified from co-located all-sky camera and IMAGE magnetometers. Similar periods, speed and poleward propagation were found for the all-sky camera ($～$60–97?min and $～$823?m/s) and the IMAGE magnetometers ($～$32–53?min and $～$708?m/s) observations. Joule heating or/and particle precipitation as a result of auroral energy injection were identified as likely generation mechanisms for these disturbances.     

Near-infrared study of open clusters Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25

The astrophysical parameters have been estimated for two unstudied open star clusters Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25 using the Two Micron All Sky Survey ($2\mathit{MASS}$) database. Radius is estimated as 4.5 arcmin for both clusters using radial density profiles. We have estimated proper motion values in both RA and DEC directions as $2.28\pm 0.3$ and $-0.38\pm 0.11$?mas?yr^?1 for Teutsch 10 and $0.48\pm 0.3$ and $3.35\pm 0.16$?mas?yr^?1 for Teutsch 25 using $\mathit{PPMXL}$¹ catalog. By estimating the stellar membership probabilities, we have identified 30 and 28 most likely members for Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25 respectively. We have estimated the reddening as $E(B-V)=0.96\pm 0.3$?mag for Teutsch 10 and $0.58\pm 0.2$?mag for Teutsch 25, while the corresponding distances are $2.4\pm 0.2$ and $1.9\pm 0.1$?kpc. Ages of $70\pm 10$?Myr for Teutsch 10 and $900\pm 100$?Myr for Teutsch 25 are estimated using the theoretical isochrones of metallicity Z?=?0.019. The mass function slopes are derived as $1.23\pm 0.30$ and $1.09\pm 0.35$ for Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25 respectively. Estimated mass function slope for both the clusters are close to the Salpeter value ($x=1.35$) within the errors. Estimated values of dynamical relaxation time are found to be less than cluster’s age for these objects. This concludes that both objects are dynamically relaxed. The possible reason for relaxation may be due to dynamical evolution or imprint of star formation or both.