基于Pareto分布的磁暴感应地电场极值测度模型

磁暴感应地电场为电力系统安全运行带来风险，研究极端磁暴地电场水平能够为量化并防御电力系统磁暴灾害风险提供理论支持.提出了基于极值理论的磁暴感应地电场极值测度模型.首先利用地磁观测数据构造年度最大地电场样本数据，建立地电场广义Pareto分布模型，然后利用剩余寿命图和Q-Q图检验模型，并通过Bayes方法估测模型参数，最后计算模型的分位数，即地电场极值测度.利用中国地磁台观测的52年磁暴数据，结合中国喀什地区大地典型结构，估算出喀什地区五十年一遇的感应地电场可达3.288V·km-1，百年一遇地的感应地电场可达3.332V·km-1.利用相同方法还估测了中国部分地磁台站所在区域的地电场极值.研究结果可为估计极值地磁暴提供新思路，也可为分析电力系统磁暴灾害风险提供数据支撑.      

2021年10月11日地磁暴对两座变电站GIC的影响

近年来中国相继监测到地磁暴侵害电网、铁路轨道电路和油气管道系统产生的地磁感应电流（Geomagnetically Induced Current,GIC）数据,但是目前实测的GIC数据还相对较少。根据2021年10月9日日冕物质抛射事件（CME）产生的Kp指数为6的地磁扰动（Geomagnetic Disturbance,GMD）数据,500 kV阿拉坦变电站（48.7°N,116.8°E）和上河变电站（33.4°N,119.2°E）及输电系统的参数,分析了2021年10月11日地磁暴期间在两座变电站监测到的GIC数据以及输电系统参数对GIC量值的影响。结果表明:地磁暴在500 kV上河变电站产生的GIC比阿拉坦变电站GIC量值相对较大。分析结果说明,在这次磁暴事件中,输电线路导线电阻是影响变电站GIC的主要因素。      

磁暴期间的地磁导航精度分析

地磁导航是无源自主导航技术研究的新方向. 分析了地磁导航的基本原理, 描述了典型磁暴过程, 并针对地磁导航在磁暴环境中的适用性进行了研究. 在采用曲面样条方法对实测地磁场数据建立观测模型的基础上, 结合广义卡尔曼滤波方法讨论了磁暴不同阶段对地磁导航精度造成的影响. 分别采用理论典型磁暴数据以及实测磁暴数据进行仿真, 仿真结果表明, 在磁暴的初相、恢复相的中后时段以及中等强度以下的磁暴全过程仍然可以采用地磁来进行导航定位, 导航精度在200 m以内, 满足飞行器中程制导的精度要求.      

利用转移熵研究引起磁暴扰动的太阳风参数重要性排序

磁暴是重要空间天气灾害性事件，能够影响卫星的安全在轨运行和地面电网系统等。目前，对于太阳风–磁层相互作用的研究多集中在分析相关系数的线性关系，而基于信息论的转移熵可以提供强大的无模型有向统计量，可用来分析传统相关性分析和模型假设检测不到的非线性关系。本文利用转移熵的方法，研究了磁暴期间的太阳风驱动参数。利用第23和24太阳活动周的小时精度数据进行长时间尺度分析，发现太阳风向地磁的信息传递呈双峰分布，表现出与太阳活动水平的一致性。利用2010-2018年93个地磁暴期间的分钟精度数据进行短时间尺度分析，结果表明：行星际电场(E)和行星际磁场南向分量(B z)对地磁指数Sym-H在时间延迟为60 min时信息传递较强，而太阳风速度v_{s w}、温度T _sw、数密度D_sw、磁场B和动压P_sw对Sym-H指数的信息传递较弱。上述研究结果能够为太阳风–磁层相互作用的建模提供参数选择及确定预测范围的依据。     

辐射带高能电子通量波动与地磁暴警报

地球磁场捕获带电粒子形成辐射带,地磁场的扰动将导致带电粒子通量的变化.根据磁暴期间外辐射带高能电子通量起伏和波动的特点及规律,利用GOES卫星实时发布的5min分辨率高能电子微分通量数据,构建了高能电子通量波动指数,并分析了该指数与地磁活动的关系.结果表明,所提出的高能电子通量波动指数与地磁事件有很好的相关性,能起到地磁暴发生的指示剂作用,相对于目前空间环境业务化预报过程中广泛使用的3hKp指数,高能电子通量波动指数能更早地警报地磁暴的发生,是潜在有效的地磁暴警报辅助手段,能为空间环境预报中的地磁暴实时警报提供重要参考.      

冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度及发生时间统计

地磁暴是空间天气预报的重要对象.在太阳活动周下降年和低年，冕洞发出的高速流经过三天左右行星际传输到达地球并引发的地磁暴占主导地位.目前地磁暴的预报通常依赖于1AU处卫星就位监测的太阳风参数，预报提前量只有1h左右.为了增加地磁暴预报提前量，需要从高速流和地磁暴的源头即太阳出发，建立冕洞特征参数与地磁暴的定量关系.分析了2010年5月到2016年12月的152个冕洞-地磁暴事件，利用SDO/AIA太阳极紫外图像提取了两类冕洞特征参数，分析了其与地磁暴期间ap，Dst和AE三种地磁指数的统计关系，给出冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度以及发生时间的统计特征，为基于冕洞成像观测提前1～3天预报地磁暴提供了依据.      

1997年1月6—11日日地连接事件：对磁暴—环电流—对流电场的讨论

给出了1997年1月6—11日日地连接事件的太阳风和行星际扰动及由此产生的地磁扰动特征．利用这些资料对磁暴-环电流-对流电场的分析表明,磁暴主相（或环电流）的开始主要是IMF南向分量形成的对流电场直接驱动的结果;对流电场在磁暴主相的形成中有极为重要的作用;但在主相发展的不同阶段作用不同     

第23和24太阳活动周高纬地磁感应电流分布特性

基于高纬度芬兰Mäntsälä地区近两个太阳活动周期（1999—2017年）天然气传输管道的地磁感应电流（GIC，I_GIC）观测数据，统计研究了GIC扰动的分布特征以及强GIC扰动与磁暴和地磁亚暴的相关性.研究发现:95.83%时间段的GIC强度分布在0～1A之间.定义:若某个时间段|I_GIC|_max> 1A，则认为发生GIC扰动；|I_GIC|_max>10A，则认为发生强GIC扰动事件.GIC扰动在磁地方时夜侧附近发生的概率最高，这主要与地磁亚暴发生期间电离层电流最剧烈的变化发生在磁地方时夜侧附近有关；强GIC扰动经常爆发式出现，且都发生在磁暴期间，但大多数磁暴并不伴随强GIC扰动事件发生.磁暴急始驱动的强GIC扰动事件较少，由磁层压缩引起地磁场突然增强驱动的强GIC扰动事件持续时间较短；强GIC扰动事件主要发生在磁暴主相和恢复相，由环电流变化驱动的强GIC扰动事件一般持续时间较长且强度较大.      

用数值模拟的方法研究磁暴主相期间影响环电流分布特征的要素

环电流是距离地心2～7 Re的带电粒子围绕地球西向漂移形成的.环电流的增强将引起全球磁场的降低,反映了地磁暴的强度.磁暴主相期间,对流电场驱动等离子体片中的能量粒子经历E×B漂移与俘获注入环电流,进入损失锥的粒子沉降到大气中.本文采用磁暴主相期间环电流离子分布的模型,结合上述因素研究不同离子能量下对流电场对环电流离子通量的直接影响,以及强弱对流电场下环电流能量离子投掷角的变化,并从物理上阐述造成此种通量分布特性的原因.      

地磁逐日比与新疆及周边地区强震关系

利用2009年1月1日至2019年12月31日新疆及周边区域12个地磁台站的地磁垂直分量日变幅数据，计算其日变幅逐日比，进而分析新疆及周边地区逐日比异常特征，研究其与磁暴和强震的关系.结果表明:强地震多发生在逐日比异常出现后半年，其中等待时间最短为20天，等待时间最长为220天，震中多位于异常集中区域或异常分界线及附近区域；新疆及周边地区逐日比异常报对率为78%，异常虚报率为22%，研究时间段内没有出现漏报现象，说明新疆及周边地区强地震与逐日比高值之间存在一定的相关性；若异常日前后未发生强磁暴或其Dst指数小于异常第二日，则异常可能性较大.本研究增强了地磁垂直分量逐日比异常判据的可靠性，其结果可以为新疆强震活跃期的判定及地震预报提供研究参考依据.      

The impact of coronal mass ejection on the horizontal geomagnetic fields and the induced geoelectric fields

This work investigates the influence of coronal mass ejection (CME) on the time derivatives of horizontal geomagnetic and geoelectric fields, proxy parameters for identifying GICs. 16 events were identified for the year 2003 from the CORONAS-PHOTON spacecraft. Five of the events (May 29, June 9, October 28, October 29, and November 4) were extensively discussed over four magnetic observatories, were analyzed using the time derivatives of the horizontal geomagnetic (dH/dt) and geoelectric (E_H) fields obtained from data of the INTERMAGNET network. It was observed that energy distributions of the wavelet power spectrum of the horizontal geoelectric field are noticed at the nighttime on both 29 May and 9 June 2003 across the stations. Daytime and nighttime intensification of energy distribution of the wavelet power spectrum of the horizontal geoelectric field are observed on both 28 and 29 October 2003 due to strong westward electrojet. The 4 November 2003 event depicts daytime amplification of energy distributions of the wavelet power spectrum across the stations. The highest correlation magnitude is obtained in the event of 4 November 2003 between dH/dt and E_H relationships during the intense solar flare of class X 17.4. We observed that the correlation magnitude between dH/dt and E_H increases with increase in CME activity. We concluded that the response of the surface impedance model for different stations plays a key role in determining the surface electric field strength, due to large electric field changes at different stations.     

Effects of space weather on high-latitude ground systems

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in technological systems, such as power grids, pipelines, cables and railways, are a ground manifestation of space weather. The first GIC observations were already made in early telegraph equipment more than 150 years ago. In power networks, GIC may saturate transformers with possible harmful consequences extending even to a collapse of the whole system or to permanent damage of transformers. In pipelines, GIC and the associated pipe-to-soil voltages may enhance corrosion or disturb surveys associated with corrosion control. GIC are driven by the geoelectric field induced by a geomagnetic variation at the Earth’s surface. The electric and magnetic fields are primarily produced by ionospheric currents and secondarily affected by the ground conductivity. Of great importance is the auroral electrojet with other rapidly varying currents indicating that GIC are a particular high-latitude problem. In this paper, we summarize the GIC research done in Finland during about 25 years, and discuss the calculation of GIC in a given network. Special attention is paid to modelling a power system. It is shown that, when considering GIC at a site, it is usually sufficient to take account for a smaller grid in the vicinity of the particular site. Modelling GIC also provides a basis for developing forecasting and warning methods of GIC.     

利用TIE-GCM模式计算电离层电流及夜间电离层磁场

电离层电流产生的磁场是地磁场卫星测绘时需要剔除的干扰源.利用电离层热层模式TIE-GCM计算电离层中的中性风、重力驱动和压强梯度等形成的电离层电流的全球分布,分析电流在特定位置产生的磁场及磁场三分量随纬度的变化规律.结果表明,E层尤其是磁赤道和极区的电流密度较大,可达103nA·m-2量级,F层电流密度量级约为10nA·m-2.在磁静日（Kp≤ 1）夜间22:00LT-04:00LT,电离层电流在中低纬度（南北纬50°之间）产生的磁场量级为几个nT,且磁场的南北向分量和径向分量基本大于东西向分量.通过与CHAMP卫星磁测数据分析比较,发现TIE-GCM模式计算电离层干扰磁场在中低纬度可以取得较好的结果,但在高纬度地区的效果不理想,还需进一步改进模式以提高计算精度.      

Geomagnetic activity indicators for geomagnetically induced current studies in South Africa

Intense geomagnetic activity is known to give rise to large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in power transmission grids. Recordings of geomagnetic activity provide an efficient and economical way for power transmission system operators to assess GIC risks in retrospective studies. This study investigates local geomagnetic indicators (i.e., hourly peak value, hourly range indicator and hourly standard deviation) in order to determine their usefulness for understanding the drivers of GICs in the South African power network. Results show that the GICs have a higher correlation with the geomagnetic indicators derived from the East–West component of the horizontal geomagnetic field, than the indicators derived from the North–South component of the horizontal field. This directional dependence corresponds very well with the North–South orientation of the power lines feeding the power transformers at the South African Grassridge electrical substation GIC site. It therefore follows that, the geoelectric field driving the GICs at Grassridge is North–South oriented. Further, it is shown that the hourly range indicator has a higher correlation with the GICs than the hourly standard deviation for this particular network configuration.     

The solar wind control of the equatorial ionosphere dynamics during geomagnetic storms

The interplanetary magnetic field, geomagnetic variations, virtual ionosphere height h′F, and the critical frequency foF2 data during the geomagnetic storms are studied to demonstrate relationships between these phenomena. We study 5-min ionospheric variations using the first Western Pacific Ionosphere Campaign (1998–1999) observations, 5-min interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and 5-min auroral electrojets data during a moderate geomagnetic storm. These data allowed us to demonstrate that the auroral and the equatorial ionospheric phenomena are developed practically simultaneously. Hourly average of the ionospheric foF2 and h′F variations at near equatorial stations during a similar storm show the same behavior. We suppose this is due to interaction between electric fields of the auroral and the equatorial ionosphere during geomagnetic storms. It is shown that the low-latitude ionosphere dynamics during these moderate storms was defined by the southward direction of the B_z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field. A southward IMF produces the Region I and Region II field-aligned currents (FAC) and polar electrojet current systems. We assume that the short-term ionospheric variations during geomagnetic storms can be explained mainly by the electric field of the FAC. The electric fields of the field-aligned currents can penetrate throughout the mid-latitude ionosphere to the equator and may serve as a coupling agent between the auroral and the equatorial ionosphere.     

地磁场模型简化计算方法

为了实现地磁导航在近地轨道卫星上的应用,需要解决传统的高斯球谐函数递推法在计算地磁场强度时存在方法复杂、计算量大、实时性难以保证等问题.针对上述问题,提出一种用地球磁场估计函数代替球谐函数的地磁场强度计算方法.该方法利用伪地心下的磁偶极子模型代替主磁场模型,通过多项式拟合离线得到高度范围内固定经纬度网格点的伪中心距系数,进而利用插值法和偶极子模型得到任意点的地磁场强度.仿真结果表明,轨道高度为300～500km,经纬度网格间隔为0.5°时,地球磁场估计函数法的导航精度与地球主磁场模型WMM精度一致的同时,降低了计算负担,提高了算法计算效率.      

Modeling geomagnetically induced currents in Hokkaido,Japan

In this paper a model for computing geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) from local geomagnetic field observations carried out in Hokkaido, Japan is constructed. The model is composed of system parameters mapping the horizontal geoelectric field to GIC and of 1D conductivity model. A rigorous model validation is used to show that the model reproduces the observed GIC with a very good accuracy.     

地磁场磁力线可视化种子点选取的磁场强度线积分等分算法

将磁力线按流线进行绘制是地磁场可视化的通用方法. 磁力线种子点的选取 决定了绘制磁力线的疏密, 其疏密程度能否真实反映地磁场强度分布是评价地 磁场可视化效果的关键. 基于磁经圈均匀角度种子点选取算法绘制 的磁力线通常不能客观反映地磁场强度的空间分布, 针对这一不足, 提出一种等分磁场强 度线积分的磁力线种子点选取算法. 利用该算法对地磁场IGRF模型和T96模型 描述的地磁内外源场进行可视化绘制, 对磁力线追踪结果中出现的冗余磁力线 进行过滤, 统计分析了绘制磁力线的空间分布与地磁场强度空间分布的相关性, 结果表明该算法能够较好地实现对地磁场的可视化.