Relationships between energetic storm particle events and interplanetary shocks driven by full and partial halo coronal mass ejections

We have analysed energetic storm particle (ESP) events in 116 interplanetary (IP) shocks driven by front-side full and partial halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with speeds $>$400 km s^?1during the years 1996–2015. We investigated the occurrence and relationships of ESP events with several parameters describing the IP shocks, and the associated CMEs, type II radio bursts, and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Most of the shocks (57 %) were associated with an ESP event at proton energies $>$1 MeV.The shock transit speeds from the Sun to 1 AU of the shocks associated with an ESP event were significantly greater than those of the shocks without an ESP event, and best distinguished these two groups of shocks from each other. The occurrence and maximum intensity of the ESP events also had the strongest dependence on the shock transit speed compared to the other parameters investigated. The correlation coefficient between ESP peak intensities and shock transit speeds was highest (0.73 $\pm$ 0.04) at 6.2 MeV. Weaker dependences were found on the shock speed at 1 AU, Alfvénic and magnetosonic Mach numbers, shock compression ratio, and CME speed. On average all these parameters were significantly different for shocks capable to accelerate ESPs compared to shocks not associated with ESPs, while the differences in the shock normal angle and in the width and longitude of the CMEs were insignificant.The CME-driven shocks producing energetic decametric–hectometric (DH) type II radio bursts and high-intensity SEP events proved to produce also more frequently ESP events with larger particle flux enhancements than other shocks. Together with the shock transit speed, the characteristics of solar DH type II radio bursts and SEP events play an important role in the occurrence and maximum intensity of ESP events at 1 AU.     

Comparing proton fluxes of central meridian SEP events with those predicted by SOLPENCO

We have developed an operational code, SOLPENCO, that can be used for space weather prediction schemes of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. SOLPENCO provides proton differential flux and cumulated fluence profiles from the onset of the event up to the arrival of the associated traveling interplanetary shock at the observer’s position (either 1.0 or 0.4 AU). SOLPENCO considers a variety of interplanetary scenarios where the SEP events develop. These scenarios include solar longitudes of the parent solar event ranging from E75 to W90, transit speeds of the associated shock ranging from 400 to 1700 km s⁻¹, proton energies ranging from 0.125 to 64 MeV, and interplanetary conditions for the energetic particle transport characterized by specific mean free paths. We compare the results of SOLPENCO with flux measurements of a set of SEP events observed at 1 AU that fulfill the following four conditions: (1) the association between the interplanetary shock observed at 1 AU and the parent solar event is well established; (2) the heliolongitude of the active region site is within 30° of the Sun–Earth line; (3) the event shows a significant proton flux increase at energies below 96 MeV; (4) the pre-event intensity background is low. The results are discussed in terms of the transit velocity of the shock and the proton energy. We draw conclusions about both the use of SOLPENCO as a prediction tool and the required improvements to make it useful for space weather purposes.     

Solar particle precipitation into the polar atmosphere and their dependence on hemisphere and local time

The precipitation of solar energetic particles, protons as well as electrons, at high latitudes is commonly assumed to be homogeneous across both polar caps. Using Low-Earth Orbit POES (Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites) we determine particle penetration ratios into the polar atmosphere for protons ranging from about 0.1 MeV to 500 MeV and for electrons spanning about one order of magnitude in energy with a maximum of 0.3 MeV. Based on power law fits for the POES spectrum we show, that for energies interesting for middle and lower atmosphere chemistry, particle flux over the poles is comparable in magnitude to flux at the geostationary orbit or at L1 in interplanetary space. The time period under study are the solar energetic particle (SEP) event series of October/November 2003 and January 2005.     

Statistical properties of SEP event flux declines

The interplanetary space is not a passive medium, which merely constitutes a scene for the propagation of previously accelerated energetic particles, but influences the distribution of particles by changing their energies as well due to interactions with magnetic field inhomogeneities. Such processes manifest themselves in the energy spectra of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. In this paper the fluxes of protons with energies of 4–60 MeV are investigated on the basis of two data sets. Both sets are homogeneous, obtained by the CPME instrument aboard the IMP 8 satellite between 1974 and 2001. The first includes all SEP events where the integral fluxes of >4 MeV protons exceeded 2 particle/cm² s sr. The other set consists of fluxes recorded in differential energy windows between 0.5 and 48 MeV. Important characteristics of SEP events include the rates of decrease of particle flux, which, as well as peak flux time, is an integral feature of the interplanetary medium within a considerable region, surrounding the observation point. The time intervals selected cover the decay phases of SEP events following flares, CMEs and interplanetary shocks of different origin. Only those parts of declines were selected, that could reasonably be described by exponential dependence, irrespective of the gradual/impulsive character of the events. It is shown that the average values of characteristic decay time, τ, and energy spectral index, γ, are all changing with the solar activity phase. Distributions of τ and γ values are obtained in SEPs with and without shocks and during different phases of events: just after peak flux and late after maximum.     

2 AU以内的“渐进型”太阳高能粒子事件模拟

太阳高能粒子（Solar Energetic Particle,SEP）事件是影响地球空间以及深空辐射环境的主要因素之一。“渐进型”太阳高能粒子事件中的高能粒子主要来自于日冕物质抛射（Coronal Mass Ejection,CME）所驱动的激波扩散加速（Diffusive Shock Acceleration,DSA）过程。CME驱动的激波在行星际的传播过程中,其结构不断演化,进而影响到高能粒子的加速过程。本文利用二维太阳高能粒子加速和传播模型,对发生于2014年4月18日的太阳高能粒子事件实例进行了数值模拟。模型考察了黄道面上2 AU的距离以内包含地球所在位置的4个不同点,分别计算了每个点上高能粒子的通量。数值模拟的结果表明：黄道面内不同位置的观察点,与激波波前的磁力线连接不同,从而导致观察点处高能粒子的通量有着显著的差异。该模型的计算结果可以为深空探测计划开展辐射环境研究提供必要的输入。     

Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.     

Some problems with developing a standard for determining solar energetic particle fluxes

Based on the author’s experience in ISO TC20/SC14 Working Group 4, this paper discusses the common problems encountered when developing a standard for solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes. The problem involving the reliability of the distribution function describing the SEP events and the interpolation of this function into the region of not-yet-observed large events are discussed. The problems with describing the fluences of SEPs over a wide range of energy in the form of energetic spectra are analyzed. Requirements for SEP flux models are formulated. The reliability of some SEP flux models is determined by comparing their predictions with the experimental data.     

A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

The hydroxyl radical as an indicator of SEP fluxes in the high-latitude terrestrial atmosphere

The low background values at nighttime of the mesospheric hydroxyl (OH) radical make it easier to single out the atmospheric response to the external solar forcing in Polar Regions. Because of the short lifetime of HO_x, it is possible to follow the trails of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in the terrestrial atmosphere, as shown by Storini and Damiani (2008). The sensitivity of this indicator makes discernible not only extreme particle events with a flux peak of several thousand pfu [1 pfu = 1 particle/(cm² s sr)] at energies >10 MeV, but also those with lower flux up to about 300 pfu. Using data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on board the EOS AURA satellite, we examined the correlation of OH abundance vs. solar proton flux for almost all the identified SEP events spanning from November 2004 to December 2006 (later on no more SEP events occurred during Solar Cycle no. 23). The channels at energies greater than 5 MeV and 10 MeV showed the best correlation values (r ∼ 0.90–0.95) at altitudes around 65–75 km whereas, as expected, the most energetic channels were most highly correlated at lower altitudes. Therefore, it is reasonably possible to estimate the solar proton flux from values of mesospheric OH (and viceversa) and it could be useful in studying periods with gaps in the records of solar particles.     

Solar proton events recorded in the stratosphere during cosmic ray balloon observations in 1957–2008

Long-term balloon observations have been performed by the Lebedev Physical Institute since 1957 up to the present time. The observations are taken several times a week at the polar and mid latitudes and allow us to study dynamics of galactic and solar cosmic ray as well as secondary particle fluxes in the atmosphere and in the near-Earth space. Solar energetic particles (120) – mostly protons – (SEP) events with >100 MeV proton intensity above 1 cm⁻² s⁻¹ s⁻¹ were recorded during 1958–2006. Before the advent of the SEP monitoring on spacecraft these results constituted the only homogeneous series of >100 MeV SEP events. The SEP intensities and energy spectra inferred from the Lebedev Physical Institute observations are consistent with the results taken in the adjacent energy intervals by the spacecraft and neutron monitors. Joint consideration of the SEP events series recorded by balloons and by neutron monitors during solar cycles 20–23 makes it possible to restore the probable number of events in solar cycle 19, which was not properly covered by observations. Some correlation was found between duration of SEP event production in a solar cycle and sunspot cycle characteristics.     

Solar cosmic rays in the near Earth space and the atmosphere

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) constitute a distinct population of energetic charged particles, which can be often observed in the near Earth space. SEP penetration into the Earth’s magnetosphere is a complicated process depending on particle magnetic rigidity and geomagnetic field structure. Particles in the several MeV energy range can only access to periphery of the magnetosphere and the polar cap regions, while the GeV particles can arrive at equatorial latitudes. Solar protons with energies higher than 100 MeV may be observed in the atmosphere above ∼30 km, and those with energies more than 1 GeV may be recorded even at the sea level. There are some observational evidences of SEP influence on atmospheric processes. Intruding into the atmosphere, SEPs affect middle atmosphere odd-nitrogen and ozone chemistry. Since spatial and temporal variations of SEP fluxes in the near Earth space are controlled by solar activity, SEPs may present an important link between solar activity and climate. The paper outlines dynamics of SEP fluxes in the near Earth space during the last decades. This can be useful for tracing relationship between SEPs and atmospheric processes.     

Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

The problem of modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) events is important to both space weather research and forecasting, and yet it has seen relatively little progress. Most important SEP events are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal and interplanetary shocks. These shocks can continuously produce accelerated particles from the ambient medium to well beyond 1 AU. This paper describes an effort to model real SEP events using a Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) MHD solar wind simulation including a cone model of CMEs to initiate the related shocks. In addition to providing observation-inspired shock geometry and characteristics, this MHD simulation describes the time-dependent observer field line connections to the shock source. As a first approximation, we assume a shock jump-parameterized source strength and spectrum, and that scatter-free transport occurs outside of the shock source, thus emphasizing the role the shock evolution plays in determining the modeled SEP event profile. Three halo CME events on May 12, 1997, November 4, 1997 and December 13, 2006 are used to test the modeling approach. While challenges arise in the identification and characterization of the shocks in the MHD model results, this approach illustrates the importance to SEP event modeling of globally simulating the underlying heliospheric event. The results also suggest the potential utility of such a model for forcasting and for interpretation of separated multipoint measurements such as those expected from the STEREO mission.     

Interplanetary proton cumulated fluence model update

Solar particle events leading to important increase of particle fluxes at energies of order of magnitude ranging from MeV to GeV constitute an important hazard for space missions. They may lead to effects seen in microelectronics or damage to solar cells and constitute a potential hazard for manned missions. Cumulative damage is commonly expressed as a function of fluence which is defined as the integral of the flux over time. A priori deterministic estimates of the expected fluence cannot be made because over the time scale of a space mission, the fluence can be dominated by the contribution of a few rare and unpredictable high intensity events. Therefore, statistical approaches are required in order to estimate fluences likely to be encountered by a space mission in advance. This paper extends work done by Rosenqvist et al. [Rosenqvist, L., Hilgers, A., Evans, H., Daly, E., Hapgood, M., Stamper, R., Zwickl, R., Bourdarie, S., Boscher, D. Toolkit for updating interplanetary proton-cumulated fluence models. J. Spacecraft Rockets, 42(6), 1077–1090, 2005] to describe an updated predictive engineering model for the proton interplanetary fluence with energies >30 MeV. This model is derived from a complete list of solar proton fluences based on data from a number of calibrated sources covering almost three solar cycles.     

Why should the latitude of the observer be considered when modeling gradual proton events? An insight using the concept of cobpoint

The shape of flux profiles of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events depends on several not well-understood factors, such as the strength of the associated shock, the relative position of the observer in space with respect to the traveling shock, the existence of a background seed particle population, the interplanetary conditions for particle transport, as well as the particle energy. Here, we focus on two of these factors: the influence of the shock strength and the relative position of the observer. We performed a 3D simulation of the propagation of a coronal/interplanetary CME-driven shock in the framework of ideal MHD modeling. We analyze the passage of this shock by nine spacecraft located at ∼0.4 AU (Mercury’s orbit) and at different longitudes and latitudes. We study the evolution of the plasma conditions in the shock front region magnetically connected to each spacecraft, that is the region of the shock front scanned by the “cobpoint” (Heras et al., 1995), as the shock propagates away from the Sun. Particularly, we discuss the influence of the latitude of the observer on the injection rate of shock-accelerated particles and, hence, on the resulting proton flux profiles to be detected by each spacecraft.     

太阳高能粒子事件上升时间统计研究

选取1997-2006年共66个较大的缓变型太阳高能粒子(SEP)事件, 分析了不同条件下太阳高能粒子通量廓线上升时间与源区日面经向分布之间的相关关系, 研究了日冕物质抛射(CME)和耀斑在SEP上升阶段的作用特点.统计结果表明,大SEP事件的源区主要分布在太阳西半球, 特别是磁足点东西两侧45°范围内; 在高速太阳风条件下, 低能通道的通量上升时间与日面相对经度有较好的相关性,即离磁足点越远, 上升时间越长,而高能通道相关性则不明显; 全晕状CME产生的SEP事件对应的上升时间与源区位置没有明显的相关性, 而部分晕状CME伴随的SEP事件则与二次拟合曲线符合很好.分析表明,在缓变型SEP事件的通量上升阶段, 耀斑加速过程起着重要作用,这在部分晕状CME伴随的SEP事件中尤为显著.      

To the problem on the reliability of solar energetic proton flux models

This work analyses basic issues of conformity of the most well-known models of solar energetic particles (SEP) fluxes to the experimental data. It is shown, that the postulates on neglecting SEP fluxes in quiet Sun years and on invariability SEP fluxes in active Sun years, underlying some models, contradict the experimental data.     

1 AU轨道SEP粒子通量的计算及与多卫星观测结果的比较

1 AU轨道上太阳高能粒子(Solar Energetic Particles,SEP)通量是空间天气的重要指标.将SEP两步传播方程的格林函数解进行数值化,模拟了2012年9月28日的SEP事件,首次计算了同一事件中GOES卫星与STEREO双星观测到的SEP通量变化过程.对GOES和STEREO-B观测点,计算所得SEP峰值I_max和峰值到达时间t_max与观测值符合较好;对STEREO-A,由于观测点与太阳活动源区间隔较大及太阳背面未知事件的影响,计算结果与观测存在一定差异.      

SEP events and multi-spacecraft observations: Constraints on theory

Fifteen solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been analyzed using proton flux data recorded by the Helios 1, Helios 2, and IMP 8 spacecraft in the energy range ∼4–40 MeV during 1974–1982. For each of the events at least two of the spacecraft have their nominal magnetic footpoint within 20° in heliocentric longitude from each other. The SEP events are sub-grouped as a function of their heliocentric longitudinal separation and heliocentric radial distance from the SEP associated solar flare and several case studies are presented in this paper. Main results concerning their usage in estimating the SEP radial dependence are given. Moreover, we investigate the behavior of the third not connected spacecraft in order to study the dependence of the proton flux as a function of flare location. It is found that the contribution of the longitudinal gradient in determining variations in the SEP proton flux is particularly relevant for spacecraft having their magnetic connection footpoint separated from the flare between 30° and 50°.     

Acceleration and transport of energeticparticles at CME-driven shocks

Historically, solar energetic particle (SEP) events are classified in two classes as “impulsive” and “gradual”. Whether there is a clear distinction between the two classes is still a matter of debate, but it is now commonly accepted that in large “gradual” SEP events, Fermi acceleration, also known as diffusive shock acceleration, is the underlying acceleration mechanism. At shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), particles are accelerated diffusively at the shock and often reach > MeV energies (and perhaps up to GeV energies). As a CME-driven shock propagates, expands and weakens, the accelerated particles can escape ahead of the shock into the interplanetary medium. These escaping energized particles then propagate along the interplanetary magnetic field, experiencing only weak scattering from fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). In this paper, we use a Monte-Carlo approach to study the transport of energetic particles escaping from a CME-driven shock. We present particle spectra observed at 1 AU. We also discuss the particle “crossing number” at 1AU and its implication to particle anisotropy. Based on previous models of particle acceleration at CME-driven shocks, our simulation allows us to investigate various characteristics of energetic particles arriving at various distances from the sun. This provides us an excellent basis for understanding the observations of high-energy particles made at 1 AU by ACE and WIND.     

Input Parameters for Models of Energetic Electrons Fluxes at the Geostationary Orbit

The results of cross-correlation analysis between electrons fluxes (with energies of > 0.6MeV, > 2.0 MeV and > 4.0MeV), geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are shown in the paper. It is determined that the electron fluxes are controlled not only by the geomagnetic indices, but also by the solar wind parameters, and the solar wind velocity demonstrates the best relation with the electron fluxes. Numerical value of the relation efficiency of external parameters with the highly energetic electrons fluxes shows a periodicity. It is presented here the preliminary results of daily averaged electrons fluxes forecast for a day ahead on the basis of the model of neuron networks.