Group dynamics in a long-term blind endeavor on Earth: An analog for space missions (Lewis & Clark Expedition group dynamic analysis)

In 1803, President Thomas Jefferson set fourth a military expedition led by Captains M. Lewis and W. Clark (Lewis and Clark Expedition) on an exploration that would become an everlasting part of US national history and pride. Looking back at the events of this exploration, there are many similarities to the experiences future human space explorers will face as we look to colonize the Moon and travel to Mars and beyond (NASA Vision for Space Exploration, 2004):

–

The Lewis and Clark Expedition lasted almost three years and involved a crew of 43 men traveling up the Missouri River to explore the unknown lands and a possible water route to the Pacific Ocean;     

Host–parasite interactions in closed and open microbial cultivation system

The study addresses interaction of bacteria and phages in the host–parasite system in batch and continuous cultures. The study system consists of the auxotrophic strain of Brevibacterium – Brevibacterium sp. 22L – and the bacteriophage of Brevibacterium sp., isolated from the soil by the enrichment method.

1.

Closed system. In the investigation of the relationship between the time of bacterial lysis and multiplicity of phage infection it has been found that at a lower phage amount per cell it takes a longer time for the lysis of the culture to become discernible. Another important factor determining cytolysis in liquid medium is the physiological state of bacterial population. Specific growth rate of bacteria at the moment of phage infection has been chosen as an indicator of the physiological state of bacteria. It has been shown that the shortest latent period and the largest output of the phage are observed during the logarithmic growth phase of bacteria grown under favorable nutrient conditions. In the stationary phase, bacterial cells become “a bad host” for the phage, whose reproduction rate decreases, and the lysis either slows down significantly or does not occur at all.     

A robust semi-analytic method to solve the minimum ΔV two-impulse rendezvous problem

A novel semi-analytic approach is developed to determine the minimum $\mathrm{\Delta }V$ for a two-impulse rendezvous and validated both empirically and analytically. A previously published closed-form $\mathrm{\Delta }V$ estimate and the Lambert minimum energy transfer is used to establish upper and lower bounds of the minimum $\mathrm{\Delta }V$ transfer between two orbits. These bounds, in conjunction with the bisection method, operate on a nonlinear radical cost function to guarantee linear convergence. This approach has several real world applications including a low earth orbit (LEO) to highly elliptical orbit (HEO), and a HEO to retrograde geosynchronous orbit transfer. The minimum $\mathrm{\Delta }V$ estimates are better than those reported in the existing literature, while run times improved as much as two orders of magnitude over a fixed time Lambert solver. All singularity cases were addressed such that any orbital geometry, including Hohmann and radial elliptic transfers, converged to the global minimum $\mathrm{\Delta }V$. This approach will work for both coplanar and non-coplanar 3D geometries for any orbit type.     

Time-varying solar radiation pressure on Ajisai in comparison with LAGEOS satellites

This study aims to investigate solar radiation pressure acting on the spherical geodetic satellites, Ajisai, LAGEOS-1, and LAGEOS-2. The solar radiation pressure coefficients ($C_R$) are derived in two independent ways: (a) through precise orbit determination (POD) using satellite laser ranging (SLR) data, and (b) through modeling using the optical properties of the satellite surface material. The average $C_R$ value of Ajisai (1.039), as calculated from the time series of $C_R$ POD estimates every 15?days, is consistently smaller than those of LAGEOS-1 (1.140) and LAGEOS-2 (1.103). This difference can be explained by the fact that the surface of Ajisai is mostly covered by mirrors. The Ajisai $C_R$ values estimated by POD show remarkable semi-annual variation, which disagrees with the results of a previous study (Sengoku et al., 1995) predicting that the $C_R$ of Ajisai varies almost annually. We attribute this semi-annual variation to two physical reasons: the non-spherical additional cross-sectional area due to the “attached fitting ring” and the low reflectivity of the surface material in the polar regions. Furthermore, the solar radiation pressure acting on Ajisai varies annually in a direction perpendicular to the sun-satellite vector. Finally, the two independent $C_R$ values of Ajisai agree more when we assume a total solar irradiance of 1361?W/m², whereas the value 1367?W/m² has been commonly used in POD.     

GRACE accelerometer calibration by high precision non-gravitational force modeling

The precise modeling and knowledge of non-gravitational forces acting on satellites is of big interest to many scientific tasks and missions. Since 2002, the twin GRACE satellites have measured these forces in a low Earth orbit with highly precise accelerometers, for about 15?years. Besides the significance for the GRACE mission, these measurement data allow the evaluation of modeling approaches and the improvement of force models. Unfortunately, before any scientific usage, the accelerometer measurements need to be calibrated, namely scale factor and bias have to be regularly estimated.In this study we demonstrate an accelerometer calibration approach, solely based on high precision non-gravitational force modeling without any use of empirically or stochastically estimated parameters, using our in-house developed satellite simulation tool XHPS. The aim of this work is twofold, first we use the accelerometer data and the residuals resulting from the calibration to quantitatively analyze and validate different non-gravitational force model approaches. In a second step, we compare the calibration results to three different calibration methods from different authors, based on gravity field recovery, GPS-based precise orbit determination, and based on modeled accelerations.We consider atmospheric drag forces and winds, as well as radiation forces due to solar radiation pressure, albedo, Earth infrared and thermal radiation (TRP) of the satellite itself. For TRP, we investigate different transient temperature calculation approaches for the satellite surfaces with absorbed power from the aforementioned radiation sources. A detailed finite element model of the satellite is utilized for every force, considering orientation, material properties and shadowing conditions for each element.For cross-track and radial direction, which are mainly affected by the radiative forces, our calibration residuals are quite small when drag is not super dominant (1–3?$\text{nm}/{\text{s}}^2$ for total accelerations around $\pm$50?$\text{nm}/{\text{s}}^2$). For these directions the calibration seems to perform better than the other compared methods, where some bigger differences were found. For the drag dominated along-track direction it is vice versa, here our method is not sensitive enough because the difference between modeled and measured drag is bigger (e.g. residuals around 10?$\text{nm}/{\text{s}}^2$ for total accelerations around $\pm$70?$\text{nm}/{\text{s}}^2$ for low solar activity). In along-track direction the orbit determination based methods are more sensitive and produce more reliable results. Results for the complete GRACE mission time span from 2003 to 2017 are shown, covering different seasonal environmental conditions.     

The influence of the spatial and temporal collocation windows on the comparisons of the ionospheric characteristic parameters derived from COSMIC radio occultation and digisondes

GPS radio occultation (RO) ionospheric products obtained by Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission during the year of 2014 and the observations from 3 digisonde stations which are located at different latitudes are used to study the influence of different time and space collocation windows on the comparisons of the ionospheric characteristic parameters (ICPs), including the peak density and peak height, derived from the two techniques. The results show that the correlation coefficients (CC) and the standard deviation of the absolute biases (SDAB) between the ICPs derived from the two techniques vary distinctly under different spatial and time collocation windows. Generally, the CC (SDAB) of the ICPs decrease (increase) as the size of the collocation window increases in time dimension or in space dimension. The rate of change of the statistic parameters with the increase in the size of the collocation window in time dimension and space dimension is analyzed for each digisonde station. It is found that within the collocation window of $\left(60\mathrm{m}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n},{20}^{°},{20}^{°}\right)$, the influence of the increase of $1^{°}$ in the space window on the statistical comparison is much more significant than that of the increase of 1?min in the time window, and it is suggested that there can be appropriate relaxation on the time window within the threshold of 60?min to get a balance between the quality of the comparison results and the number of the matched pairs. In addition, it is found that the same variations in the longitude window and in the latitude window may have different influences on the comparison results when the horizontal gradients in electron density are distinctly different along different directions at the digisonde station, and strict space collocation window is preferred when comparing the observations from COSMIC RO with those from the digisonde station in such cases.     

An application of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient to solar compact and eruptive events

We propose to apply the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (${\mathit{WG}}_M$), introduced in Korsós et al., 2015, for analysing the pre-flare and pre-CME behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs) using the SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data catalogue. To demonstrate the power of investigative capabilities of the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ method, in terms of flare and CME eruptions, we studied two typical ARs, namely, AR 12158 and AR 12192. The choice of ARs represent canonical cases. AR 12158 produced an X1.6 flare with fast “halo” CME ($v_{\mathit{linear}}$ = 1267 $\text{km}{\text{s}}^{-1}$) while in AR 12192 there occurred a range of powerful X-class eruptions, i.e. X1.1, X1.6, X3.1, X1.0, X2.0 and X2.0-class energetic flares, interestingly, none with an accompanying CME. The value itself and temporal variation of ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ is found to possess potentially important diagnostic information about the intensity of the expected flare class. Furthermore, we have also estimated the flare onset time from the relationship of duration of converging and diverging motions of the area-weighted barycenters of two subgroups of opposite magnetic polarities. This test turns out not only to provide information about the intensity of the expected flare-class and the flare onset time but may also indicate whether a flare will occur with/without fast CME. We have also found that, in the case when the negative polarity barycenter has moved around and the positive one “remained” at the same coordinates preceding eruption, the flare occurred with fast “halo” CME. Otherwise, when both the negative and the positive polarity barycenters have moved around, the AR produced flares without CME. If these properties found for the movement of the barycenters are generic pre-cursors of CME eruption (or lack of it), identifying them may serve as an excellent pre-condition for refining the forecast of the lift-off of CMEs.     

Near-infrared study of open clusters Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25

The astrophysical parameters have been estimated for two unstudied open star clusters Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25 using the Two Micron All Sky Survey ($2\mathit{MASS}$) database. Radius is estimated as 4.5 arcmin for both clusters using radial density profiles. We have estimated proper motion values in both RA and DEC directions as $2.28\pm 0.3$ and $-0.38\pm 0.11$?mas?yr^?1 for Teutsch 10 and $0.48\pm 0.3$ and $3.35\pm 0.16$?mas?yr^?1 for Teutsch 25 using $\mathit{PPMXL}$¹ catalog. By estimating the stellar membership probabilities, we have identified 30 and 28 most likely members for Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25 respectively. We have estimated the reddening as $E(B-V)=0.96\pm 0.3$?mag for Teutsch 10 and $0.58\pm 0.2$?mag for Teutsch 25, while the corresponding distances are $2.4\pm 0.2$ and $1.9\pm 0.1$?kpc. Ages of $70\pm 10$?Myr for Teutsch 10 and $900\pm 100$?Myr for Teutsch 25 are estimated using the theoretical isochrones of metallicity Z?=?0.019. The mass function slopes are derived as $1.23\pm 0.30$ and $1.09\pm 0.35$ for Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25 respectively. Estimated mass function slope for both the clusters are close to the Salpeter value ($x=1.35$) within the errors. Estimated values of dynamical relaxation time are found to be less than cluster’s age for these objects. This concludes that both objects are dynamically relaxed. The possible reason for relaxation may be due to dynamical evolution or imprint of star formation or both.     

Modelling ionospheric vertical drifts over Africa low latitudes using Empirical Orthogonal functions and comparison with climatological model

For the first time, empirical model of daytime vertical $\mathbf{E}\times \mathbf{B}$ drift based on Empirical Orthogonal functions (EOF) decomposition technique is presented. Day-to-day variability of $\mathbf{E}\times \mathbf{B}$ drift inferred from horizontal (H) geomagnetic field data around dip latitude for the period of 2008–2013 is used to both develop and validate the model. Results show that the EOF technique is promising with modelled values and data giving correlation coefficient values of at least 0.90 for geomagnetic conditions of both $K_p?3$ and $K_p>3$ within 2008–2013. Independent model validation shows that in situ $\mathbf{E}\times \mathbf{B}$ values from ion velocity meter (IVM) instrument on-board C/NOFS satellite are closer to model $\mathbf{E}\times \mathbf{B}$ estimates than the climatological Scherliess-Fejer (SF) model incorporated within the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI).     

Vertical and radial metallicity gradients in high latitude galactic fields with SDSS

We used the ugr magnitudes of 1437467 F-G type main-sequence stars with metal abundance $-2?[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}]?+0.2$ dex and estimated radial and vertical metallicity gradients for high Galactic-latitude fields, $50°<b?90°$ and $0°<l?360°$, of the Milky Way Galaxy. The radial metallicity gradient $d[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}]/\mathit{dR}=-0.042\pm 0.011$ dex kpc^?1 estimated for the stars with $1.31<z\le 1.74$ kpc is attributed to the thin-disc population. While, the radial gradients evaluated for stars at higher vertical distances are close to zero indicating that the thick disc and halo have not undergone a radial collapse phase at least at high Galactic latitudes. The vertical metallicity gradients estimated for stars with three different Galactic latitudes, $50°<b?65°,65°<b?80°$ and $80°<b?90°$ do not show a strong indication for Galactic latitude dependence of our gradients. The thin disc, $0.5<z?2$ kpc, with a vertical metallicity gradient $d\left[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}\right]/\mathit{dz}=-0.308\pm 0.018$ dex kpc^?1, is dominant only in galactocentric distance interval $6<R?10$ kpc, while the thick disc ($2<z?5$ kpc) could be observed in the intervals $6<R?10$ and $10<R?15$ kpc with compatible vertical metallicity gradients, i.e. $d\left[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}\right]/\mathit{dz}=-0.164\pm 0.014$ dex kpc^?1 and $d\left[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}\right]/\mathit{dz}=-0.172\pm 0.016$ dex kpc^?1. Five vertical metallicity gradients are estimated for the halo ($z>5$ kpc) in three galactocentric distance intervals, $6<R?10,10<R?15$ and $15<R?20$ kpc. The first one corresponding to the interval $6<R?10$ kpc is equal to $d\left[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}\right]/\mathit{dz}=-0.023\pm 0.006$ dex kpc^?1, while the others at larger galactocentric distances are close to zero. We derived synthetic vertical metallicity gradients for 2,230,167 stars and compared them with the observed ones. There is a good agreement between the two sets of vertical metallicity gradients for the thin disc, while they are different for the thick disc. For the halo, the conspicuous difference corresponds to the galactocentric distance interval $6<R?10$ kpc, while they are compatible at higher galactocentric distance intervals.     

Physical characterization of the deep-space debris WT1190F: A testbed for advanced SSA techniques

We report on extensive ${\mathit{BVR}}_c{I}_c$ photometry and low-resolution ($\lambda /\mathrm{\Delta }\lambda ～250$) spectroscopy of the deep-space debris WT1190F, which impacted Earth offshore from Sri Lanka, on 2015 November 13. In spite of its likely artificial origin (as a relic of some past lunar mission), the case offered important points of discussion for its suggestive connection with the envisaged scenario for a (potentially far more dangerous) natural impactor, like an asteroid or a comet.Our observations indicate for WT1190F an absolute magnitude $R_c={32.45}_{\pm 0.31}$, with a flat dependence of reflectance on the phase angle, such as ${\mathit{dR}}_c/d?～{0.007}_{\pm 2}$?mag?deg^?1. The detected short-timescale variability suggests that the body was likely spinning with a period twice the nominal figure of $P_{\mathrm{flash}}={1.4547}_{\pm 0.0005}\mathrm{s}$, as from the observed lightcurve. In the ${\mathit{BVR}}_c{I}_c$ color domain, WT1190F closely resembled the Planck deep-space probe. This match, together with a depressed reflectance around 4000 and 8500 Å may be suggestive of a “grey” (aluminized) surface texture.The spinning pattern remained in place also along the object fiery entry in the atmosphere, a feature that may have partly shielded the body along its fireball phase perhaps leading a large fraction of its mass to survive intact, now lying underwater along a tight ($～1\times 80$?km) strip of sea, at a depth of 1500?m or less.Under the assumption of Lambertian scatter, an inferred size of ${216}_{\pm 30}/\sqrt{\alpha /0.1}$?cm is obtained for WT1190F. By accounting for non-gravitational dynamical perturbations, the Area-to-Mass ratio of the body was in the range $(0.006?\mathit{AMR}?0.011)$?m²?kg^?1.Both these figures resulted compatible with the two prevailing candidates to WT1190F’s identity, namely the Athena II Trans-Lunar Injection Stage of the Lunar Prospector mission, and the ascent stage of the Apollo 10 lunar module, callsign “Snoopy”. Both candidates have been analyzed in some detail here through accurate 3D CAD design mockup modelling and BRDF reflectance rendering to derive the inherent photometric properties to be compared with the observations.     

Detailed analysis of dynamic evolution of three Active Regions at the photospheric level before flare and CME occurrence

We present a combined analysis of the applications of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (denoted as ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ in Korsós et al. (2015)) method and the magnetic helicity tool (Berger and Field, 1984) employed for three active regions (ARs), namely NOAA AR 11261, AR 11283 and AR 11429. We analysed the time series of photospheric data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory taken between August 2011 and March 2012. During this period the three ARs produced a series of flares (eight M- and six X-class) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). AR 11261 had four M-class flares and one of them was accompanied by a fast CME. AR 11283 had similar activities with two M- and two X-class flares, but only with a slow CME. Finally, AR 11429 was the most powerful of the three ARs as it hosted five compact and large solar flare and CME eruptions. For applying the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ method we employed the Debrecen sunspot data catalogue, and, for estimating the magnetic helicity at photospheric level we used the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP’s) vector magnetograms from SDO/HMI (Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager). We followed the evolution of the components of the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ and the magnetic helicity before the flare and CME occurrences. We found a unique and mutually shared behaviour, called the U-shaped pattern, of the weighted distance component of ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ and of the shearing component of the helicity flux before the flare and CME eruptions. This common pattern is associated with the decreasing-receding phases yet reported only known to be a necessary feature prior to solar flare eruption(s) but found now at the same time in the evolution of the shearing helicity flux. This result leads to the conclusions that (i) the shearing motion of photospheric magnetic field may be a key driver for solar eruption in addition to the flux emerging process, and that (ii) the found decreasing-approaching pattern in the evolution of shearing helicity flux may be another precursor indicator for improving the forecasting of solar eruptions.