基于核主成分分析的多输出模型确认方法

目前对于不确定性环境下多个相关的复杂计算模型进行确认的方法存在计算困难及稳定性较差的问题。针对这类复杂计算模型,提出了一种新的基于核主成分分析(KPCA)的多输出模型确认方法。该方法将核主成分分析与面积法的思想相结合,构造了一个新的易于计算且稳定性高的模型确认指标。所提方法通过核主成分分析将相关的输出变量转化为不相关的核主成分,再对每一核主成分进行模型与实验的对比,从而避免了传统多输出模型确认方法中需要求解多个输出的联合累积分布函数的困难。由于核主成分分析(PCA)方法能够有效提取分析对象的非线性成分,因此基于核主成分分析的多输出模型确认方法较基于主成分分析的模型确认方法更为稳定,这表现在相同的实验样本数据下核主成分分析的方法具有更低的出错率。另外核主成分分析通过核主成分提取,可以实现多输出模型的降维,从而降低多输出模型确认的复杂度。所提方法既可以用于一般的多输出模型的确认,也可以用于多确认点的输出模型的确认。最后通过数值算例和工程算例证明了该方法的正确性与有效性。     

光纤陀螺随机误差模型分析

陀螺仪的工作精度决定着惯性参考系统的精度,为了减小陀螺仪的误差并提高其精度,需要对陀螺仪误差进行估计与精确建模.提出应用ARMA,Allan方差分析法及功率谱密度PSD(Power Spectrum Density)分析法联合对光纤陀螺FOG(Fiber Optic Gyroscope)的误差特性及建模技术进行了研究.利用Allan方差及PSD分析法对光纤陀螺输出信号的分析,有效地分离并确定影响光纤陀螺输出性能的几种主要随机误差源,并对所建立的光纤陀螺ARMA模型和AR模型的精度进行了评估.对光纤陀螺实测数据的分析表明Allan方差分析法与PSD分析法对光纤陀螺噪声分析结果具有一致性,时序ARMA模型是建立光纤陀螺随机误差模型的一种有效方法.      

光纤陀螺随机漂移误差补偿适用性方法

针对传统方法在建立时间序列模型基础上应用卡尔曼滤波器去除陀螺随机噪声误差的缺陷,提出了一种适于在线补偿光纤陀螺FOG(Fiber Optic Gyrosope)随机误差的滤波方法.当建立的时间序列模型系数出现偏差时,通过引入虚拟噪声,来补偿滤波过程由于系统模型时变和未知噪声而引入的误差,实现了对陀螺随机漂移误差的高精度滤波处理.其次,利用Allan 方差分析法分离并确定了光纤陀螺的主要随机误差源,并对建立的光纤陀螺时间序列模型及滤波方法的适用性及精度进行了评估.通过对光纤陀螺实测数据的分析表明,速率斜坡、速率随机游走和零偏稳定性为FOG的主要随机噪声,所提出的自适应滤波算法能够适应陀螺漂移的时变特点,是一种有效的去除光纤陀螺随机漂移噪声方法.      

A global empirical orthogonal function model of plasmaspheric electron content

Based on the method for establishing a global plasmaspheric model using observations from COSMIC and MetOp-A orbit determination GNSS receivers, Chen et al. (2017) obtained a global plasmaspheric total electron content product with a spatial resolution of 2.5° × 5° and a time resolution of 4 h. In this paper, we use those global plasmaspheric electron content product in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014 for 1446 days to establish a global plasmaspheric empirical model based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF). The model can well characterize the spatiotemporal variation of plasmaspheric electron content (PEC) and the influence of solar radiation on it. Only the first four orders of EOF sequences can characterize the 98.43% features of the original PEC dataset. The principal component coefficient Pk is decomposed twice during modeling, and the combination of trigonometric function and linear function is used to model Pk to characterize the solar cycle, annual cycle, semi-annual cycle and quarter-cycle variation. We compare the PEC model values with the actual observation data, the results show that the empirical PEC model values are highly correlated with the actual observations. The correlation between the two is above 0.96, and the RMS maximum of the difference between the PEC model values and the observed values are 0.70 TECU, and the average of the difference between the PEC model values and the observed values are −0.18 TECU, respectively. In addition, we validate the reliability of the global plasmaspheric model established by two empirical orthogonal function decomposition method using actual observation data, according to the global distribution of the differences between the PEC model values and the observed values in low solar activity and high solar activity, it can be seen that under low solar activity and high solar activity conditions, the model has good adaptability.     

超小型直升机动力学模型的建模、辨识与验证

为实现超小型直升机的自动控制飞行,需建立较为精确的动力学模型.考虑机体、主旋翼/稳定杆和尾桨间的耦合对飞行动态特性的影响,建立了AF25B型超小型直升机的连续线性时不变系统模型.设计并配置了机载设备,完成在遥控飞行状态下的飞行数据采集与存储.通过时域系统辨识方法,辨识了直升机在悬停状态下的模型参数,并对辨识结果进行验证和分析,表明所建模型能充分反映该型直升机悬停状态下的动态特性.     

光纤陀螺随机漂移模型

随机漂移是光纤陀螺的主要误差,建立数学模型在输出中补偿是抑制该项误差、提高光纤陀螺精度的有效方法.光纤陀螺静态输出为随机过程,对该随机过程的平稳性和正态性进行分析,拟合趋势项、周期项并补偿,使其成为平稳随机序列.采用时间序列分析法建立光纤陀螺随机漂移模型,根据随机漂移自相关和偏相关系数的特性辨识模型的类型和阶数,利用最小二乘方法估计模型参数,得到光纤陀螺随机漂移模型为AR(2).对陀螺输出数据补偿,检验模型的适用性.结果表明,该模型具有很好的适用性,能够有效抑制随机漂移,提高光纤陀螺精度,可以作为惯导系统卡尔曼滤波器状态变量的数学模型.      

结构静力响应区间的一种计算方法及工程应用

针对实际工程中广泛存在的物理或几何上的不确定性,提出一种有界不确定性结构静力响应上下确界的有效计算方法,将线形区间方程组转化为两个标准的线性规划问题求解,并给出数学证明.编写与大型有限元软件ANSYS的接口程序和区间运算程序,使区间运算方法和工程有限元软件结合并推广到实际工程领域.以某大跨钢结构建筑为例,对其静力响应区间进行估计.结果表明,该方法可给出与Deif方法一致的精确结果且计算量较之Deif方法大幅降低.基于此算法对ANSYS进行二次开发的接口程序和区间运算程序,可直接用于含有界不确定性参数的实际工程问题中.      

基于ARMA时序模型的结构参数识别集员算法

研究在时域内利用含噪声观测数据识别结构参数问题.建立了与结构振动微分方程等价的自回归滑动平均(ARMA, Autoregressive Moving-Average)时序模型,将结构参数识别问题转换为ARMA模型参数辨识问题.在不确定但有界(UBB, Unknown-But-Bounded)噪声假设下,基于线性时不变系统参数集员辨识的区间算法,寻求与观测数据和噪声相容的参数的最小超长方体(或区间向量),进而得到结构参数的估计值.通过数值算例,将本文算法与最小二乘算法进行了比较,显示了其可行性和有效性.      

A deformation model of flexible,HAMR objects for accurate propagation under perturbations and the self-shadowing effects

A new type of space debris in near geosynchronous orbit (GEO) was recently discovered and later identified as exhibiting unique characteristics associated with high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) objects, such as high rotation rates and high reflection properties. Observations have shown that this debris type is very sensitive to environmental disturbances, particularly solar radiation pressure, due to the fact that its motion depends on the actual effective area, orientation of that effective area, reflection properties and the area-to-mass ratio of the object is not stable over time. Previous investigations have modelled this type of debris as rigid bodies (constant area-to-mass ratios) or discrete deformed body; however, these simplifications will lead to inaccurate long term orbital predictions. This paper proposes a simple yet reliable model of a thin, deformable membrane based on multibody dynamics. The membrane is modelled as a series of flat plates, connected through joints, representing the flexibility of the membrane itself. The mass of the membrane, albeit low, is taken into account through lump masses at the joints. The attitude and orbital motion of this flexible membrane model is then propagated near GEO to predict its orbital evolution under the perturbations of solar radiation pressure, Earth’s gravity field (J₂), third body gravitational fields (the Sun and Moon) and self-shadowing. These results are then compared to those obtained for two rigid body models (cannonball and flat rigid plate). In addition, Monte Carlo simulations of the flexible model by varying initial attitude and deformation angle (different shape) are investigated and compared with the two rigid models (cannonball and flat rigid plate) over a period of 100?days. The numerical results demonstrate that cannonball and rigid flat plate are not appropriate to capture the true dynamical evolution of these objects, at the cost of increased computational time.