2009年2月13日EUV波现象数值研究

结合STEREO卫星的观测和三维磁流体力学数值模拟方法, 采用WSO (Wilcox Solar Observatory)磁场数据和势场源表面模型建立日冕初始磁场, 并在日面活动区加上时变的压强扰动, 对2009年2月13日05:35UT爆发的CME-EUV波(Coronal Mass Ejections-Extreme Ultraviolet wave, 日冕物质抛射-远紫外波)事件进行研究. 从COR1/STEREO-A图像判断, 此次CME前沿速度约340km·s-1, 角宽度约60°; 分析EUVI/STEREO-B 195 ?的差分图像, 可以看到, 环形亮环波前从活动区向四周传播, 亮环波前后面是日冕暗化区, 取四个方向的波前位置进行线性拟合可知, 该EUV波速度为247km·s-1, 数值模拟得到的EUV波速度为245km·s-1, 将计算结果采用IDL可视化后可以看到明显的亮环和暗区结构, 数值模拟结果与卫星观测相一致, 表明该EUV波现象是快磁声波.      

太阳活动区EUV图像的生成式模型耀斑分级与预报

近年来,不断发射的空基观测台持续传送回海量日面图像及日地间气象数据,为采用人工智能技术对太阳活动进行预报预警提供了数据基础。但是,极端天气爆发少,样本量较少;中等程度爆发稍多,样本量较多;常规无爆发天气常见,样本较为集中,样本不均衡状况严重影响机器学习方法在空间天气领域的广泛应用。本文面向多源多通道多尺度日面图像信息,构建了来自SOHO和SDO的1996-2015年日面活动区图像数据集;针对数据分布的不平衡,对太阳活动区图像作耀斑分级与预报。在对比分析元学习算法的基础上,设计了结合分类头设计和卷积核初始化的生成式模型;在使网络轻量化的基础上,能够将M和X级耀斑预报的检测率指标相较于普通的深度学习模型和无监督度量式模型分别提升10%和7%。     

太阳活动对EUV辐射在大气中吸收过程的影响

本文利用A-E卫星在太阳活动21周峰年间观测到的EUV辐射资料,高层大气成分的吸收截面,以及MSIS-86热层大气模式,研究了EUV辐射在大气中的吸收过程;在透射比为1/e和0.1/100时分别计算了透射高度随波长及太阳活动的变化。在波长范围50—1050内对37个波段分别求出了透射高度随太阳天顶角的变化。结果表明,当太阳活动增强时各波段的透射高度均升高,而且透射比越大则透射高度随太阳活动的变化也越剧烈。当透射比为一定时,太阳天顶角越大则透射高度随太阳活动的变化也越大。除此之外还存在一个相反效应,即太阳活动会使Chapman函数变小,这反过来又促使透射高度降低。这两种效应的综合作用结果可较好地解释某些电离层观测中的日没效应。     

Distinct EUV minimum of the solar irradiance (16–40 nm) observed by SolACES spectrometers onboard the International Space Station (ISS) in August/September 2009

In the field of terrestrial climatology the continuous monitoring of the solar irradiance with highest possible accuracy is an important goal. SolACES as a part of the ESA mission SOLAR on the ISS is measuring the short-wavelength solar EUV irradiance from 16–150 nm. This data will be made available to the scientific community to investigate the impact of the solar irradiance variability on the Earth’s climate as well as the thermospheric/ionospheric interactions that are pursued in the TIGER program. Since the successful launch with the shuttle mission STS-122 on February 7th, 2008, SolACES initially recorded the low EUV irradiance during the extended solar activity minimum. Thereafter it has been observing the EUV irradiance during the increasing solar activity with enhanced intensity and changing spectral composition. SolACES consists of three grazing incidence planar grating spectrometers. In addition there are two three-signal ionisation chambers, each with exchangeable band-pass filters to determine the absolute EUV fluxes repeatedly during the mission. One important problem of space-borne instrumentation recording the solar EUV irradiance is the degradation of the spectrometer sensitivity. The two double ionisation chambers of SolACES, which could be re-filled with three different gases for each recording, allow the recalibration of the efficiencies of the three SolACES spectrometers from time to time.     

CME–flare association during the 23rd solar cycle

The relation between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are statistically studied. More than 10,000 CME events observed by SOHO/LASCO during the period 1996–2005 have been analyzed. The soft X-ray flux measurements provided by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), recorded more than 20,000 flares in the same time period. The data is filtered under certain temporal and spatial conditions to select the CME–flare associated events. The results show that CME–flare associated events are triggered with a lift-off time within the range 0.4–1.0 h. We list a set of 41 CME–flare associated events satisfying the temporal and spatial conditions. The listed events show a good correlation between the CME energy and the X-ray flux of the CME–flare associated events with correlation coefficient of 0.76.     

α–ω Effect and peculiarities of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic rays intensity,solar wind and solar activity parameters

We show that the amplitudes of the 27-day variations of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, solar wind and solar activity parameters have a periodicity with duration of three to four Carrington rotation periods (3–4 CRP). We assume that the general reason for this phenomenon may be related to similar cyclicity of topological structure of the solar magnetic field lines created owing to the asymmetry of turbulent solar dynamo and solar differential rotation transforming the Sun’s poloidal magnetic field to the toroidal (α–ω effect), and vice versa.     

Evolution of Dst index,cosmic rays and global temperature during solar cycles 20–23

We have studied conditions in interplanetary space, which can have an influence on galactic cosmic ray (CR) and climate change. In this connection the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and cosmic ray variations have been compared with geomagnetic activity represented by the equatorial Dst index from the beginning 1965 to the end of 2012. Dst index is commonly used as the solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere interaction characteristic. The important drivers in interplanetary medium which have effect on cosmic rays as CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and CIRs (corotating interaction regions) undergo very strong changes during their propagation to the Earth. Because of this CMEs, coronal holes and the solar spot numbers (SSN) do not adequately reflect peculiarities concerned with the solar wind arrival to 1 AU. Therefore, the geomagnetic indices have some inestimable advantage as continuous series other the irregular solar wind measurements. We have compared the yearly average variations of Dst index and the solar wind parameters with cosmic ray data from Moscow, Climax, and Haleakala neutron monitors during the solar cycles 20–23. The descending phases of these solar cycles (CSs) had the long-lasting solar wind high speed streams occurred frequently and were the primary contributors to the recurrent Dst variations. They also had effects on cosmic rays variations. We show that long-term Dst variations in these solar cycles were correlated with the cosmic ray count rate and can be used for study of CR variations. Global temperature variations in connection with evolution of Dst index and CR variations is discussed.     

On the early phase of relativistic solar particle events: Are there signatures of acceleration mechanism?

Many physical processes precede and accompany the solar energetic particles (SEP) occurrence on the Earth’s orbit. Explosive energy release on the Sun gives rise to a flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME). X-ray and gamma emissions are believed to be connected with flares. Radio emission is signature of disturbances traveling through the corona and interplanetary space. Particles can gain energy both in the flare and the accompanying wave processes. The beginning of the SEP events has the advantage of being the phase most close to the time of acceleration. Influence of interplanetary transport is minimal in the case of first arriving relativistic solar protons recorded by ground based neutron monitors in so called ground-level enhancements (GLE). The early phase of the SEP events attracts attention of many scientists searching for the understanding of particle acceleration. However, they come to the opposite conclusions. While some authors find arguments for coronal mass ejections as a sole accelerator of SEPs, others prove a flare to be the SEP origin. Here, the circumstances of SEP generation for several GLEs of the 23rd solar cycle are considered. Timing of X-ray, CME, and radio emissions shows a great variety from event to event. However, the time of particle ejection from the Sun is closer to maximum of X-ray emission than to any other phenomena considered. No correlation is found between the particle fluxes and the CME characteristics.     

Fundamental (f) oscillations in a magnetically coupled solar interior-atmosphere system – An analytical approach

Solar fundamental (f) acoustic mode oscillations are investigated analytically in a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. The model consists of three layers in planar geometry, representing the solar interior, the magnetic atmosphere, and a transitional layer sandwiched between them. Since we focus on the fundamental mode here, we assume the plasma is incompressible. A horizontal, canopy-like, magnetic field is introduced to the atmosphere, in which degenerated slow MHD waves can exist. The global (f-mode) oscillations can couple to local atmospheric Alfvén waves, resulting, e.g., in a frequency shift of the oscillations. The dispersion relation of the global oscillation mode is derived, and is solved analytically for the thin-transitional layer approximation and for the weak-field approximation. Analytical formulae are also provided for the frequency shifts due to the presence of a thin transitional layer and a weak atmospheric magnetic field. The analytical results generally indicate that, compared to the fundamental value ($\omega =\sqrt{\mathit{gk}}$), the mode frequency is reduced by the presence of an atmosphere by a few per cent. A thin transitional layer reduces the eigen-frequencies further by about an additional hundred microhertz. Finally, a weak atmospheric magnetic field can slightly, by a few percent, increase the frequency of the eigen-mode. Stronger magnetic fields, however, can increase the f-mode frequency by even up to ten per cent, which cannot be seen in observed data. The presence of a magnetic atmosphere in the three-layer model also introduces non-permitted propagation windows in the frequency spectrum; here, f-mode oscillations cannot exist with certain values of the harmonic degree. The eigen-frequencies can be sensitive to the background physical parameters, such as an atmospheric density scale-height or the rate of the plasma density drop at the photosphere. Such information, if ever observed with high-resolution instrumentation and inverted, could help to gain further insight into solar magnetic structures by means of solar magneto-seismology, and could provide further insight into the role of magnetism in solar oscillations.     

Study of the influence of solar variability on a regional (Indian) climate: 1901–2007

We use Indian temperature data of more than 100 years to study the influence of solar activity on climate. We study the Sun–climate relationship by averaging solar and climate data at various time scales; decadal, solar activity and solar magnetic cycles. We also consider the minimum and maximum values of sunspot number (SSN) during each solar cycle. This parameter SSN is correlated better with Indian temperature when these data are averaged over solar magnetic polarity epochs (SSN maximum to maximum). Our results indicate that the solar variability may still be contributing to ongoing climate change and suggest for more investigations.     

Modeling and observations of the north–south ionospheric asymmetry at low latitudes at long deep solar minimum

Using the physics based model SUPIM and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC electron density data measured at the long deep solar minimum (2008–2010) we investigate the longitude variations of the north–south asymmetry of the ionosphere at low latitudes (±30° magnetic). The data at around diurnal maximum (12:30–13:30 LT) for magnetically quiet (Ap ? 15) equinoctial conditions (March–April and September–October) are presented for three longitude sectors (a) 60°E–120°E, (b) 60°W–120°W and (c) 15°W–75°W. The sectors (a) and (b) have large displacements of the geomagnetic equator from geographic equator but in opposite hemispheres with small magnetic declination angles; and sector (c) has large declination angle with small displacement of the equators; vertical E × B drift velocities also have differences in the three longitude sectors. SUPIM investigates the importance of the displacement of the equators, magnetic declination angle, and E × B drift on the north–south asymmetry. The data and model qualitatively agree; and indicate that depending on longitudes both the displacement of the equators and declination angle are important in producing the north–south asymmetry though the displacement of the equators seems most effective. This seems to be because it is the displacement of the equators more than the declination angle that produces large north–south difference in the effective magnetic meridional neutral wind velocity, which is the main cause of the ionospheric asymmetry. For the strong control of the neutral wind, east–west electric field has only a small effect on the longitude variation of the ionospheric asymmetry. Though the study is for the long deep solar minimum the conclusions seem valid for all levels of solar activity since the displacement of the equators and declination angle are independent of solar activity.     

Ionization effect of solar protons in the Earth atmosphere – Case study of the 20 January 2005 SEP event

The cosmic ray ground level enhancement on January 20, 2005 is among the largest recorded events in the history of cosmic ray measurements. The solar protons of MeV energies cause an excess of ionization in the atmosphere, specifically over polar caps following major solar disturbances. The ionization effect in the Earth atmosphere is obtained for various latitudes on the basis of solar proton energy spectra, reconstructed from GOES 11 measurements and subsequent full Monte Carlo simulation of cosmic ray induced atmospheric cascade. The estimation of ionization rates is based on a numerical model for cosmic ray induced ionization. The evolution of atmospheric cascade is performed with the CORSIKA 6.52 code using FLUKA 2006b and QGSJET II hadron interaction models. The atmospheric ion rate ionization is explicitly obtained for 40°N, 60°N and 80°N latitudes. The time evolution of obtained ion rates is presented. It is demonstrated that ionization effect is negative for 40°N and small for 60°N, because of accompanying Forbush decrease. The ionization effect is significant only in sub-polar and polar atmosphere during the major ground level enhancement of 20 January 2005.     

Influence of the 27-day solar flux variations on the ionosphere parameters measured at Irkutsk in 2003–2005

We present an investigation of the influence of the 27-day solar flux variations, caused by solar rotation, on the ionosphere parameters such as the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the total electron content (TEC). Our observational data were obtained with the Irkutsk Digisonde (DPS-4) located at 52.3 North and 104.3 East during the period from 2003 to 2005. In addition, we use TEC data from the Global Ionosphere Maps (GIM) based on Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. The solar radiation flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (F10.7 index) is used as an index characterizing the solar activity level. A good correlation between observed ionosphere parameters and solar activity variations is found especially in autumn-to-winter season. We estimate the impact of the 27-day solar flux variations on the day-to-day variability and determine the time delay of the ionosphere response.     

Kelvin–Helmholtz instability in a twisting solar polar coronal hole jet observed by SDO/AIA

We investigate the conditions under which the fluting ($m=2$), $m=3$, and $m=12$ magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes in a uniformly twisted flux tube moving along its axis become unstable in order to model the Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instability in a twisting solar coronal hole jet near the northern pole of the Sun. We employed the dispersion relations of MHD modes derived from the linearized MHD equations. We assumed real wavenumbers and complex angular wave frequencies, namely complex wave phse velocities. The dispersion relations were solved numerically at fixed input parameters (taken from observational data) and varying degrees of torsion of the internal magnetic field. It is shown that the stability of the modes depends upon five parameters: the density contrast between the flux tube and its environment, the ratio of the external and internal axial magnetic fields, the twist of the magnetic field lines inside the tube, the ratio of transverse and axial jet’s velocities, and the value of the Alfvén Mach number (the ratio of the tube axial velocity to Alfvén speed inside the flux tube). Using a twisting jet of 2010 August 21 by SDO/AIA and other observations of coronal jets we set the parameters of our theoretical model and have obtained that in a twisted magnetic flux tube of radius of $9.8$ Mm, at a density contrast of $0.474$ and fixed Alfvén Mach number of $?0.76$, for the three MHD modes there exist instability windows whose width crucially depends upon the internal magnetic field twist. It is found that for the considered modes an azimuthal magnetic field of $1.3$–$1.4$ G (computed at the tube boundary) makes the width of the instability windows equal to zero, that is, it suppress the KH instability onset. On the other hand, the times for developing KH instability of the $m=12$ MHD mode at instability wavelengths between 15 and 12 Mm turn out to be in the range of $1.9$–$4.7$ min that is in agreement with the growth rates estimated from the temporal evolution of the observed unstable jet’s blobs in their initial stage.     

AVS-F observations of γ-ray emission during January 20, 2005 solar flare up to 140 MeV

The solar flare of January 20, 2005 (X7.1, 06:36–07:26 UT, maximum at 07:01 UT by the GOES soft X-ray data) was the most powerful one in January 2005 series. The AVS-F apparatus onboard CORONAS-F registered γ-emission during soft X-ray rising phase of this flare in two energy ranges of 0.1–20 MeV and 2–140 MeV. The highest γ-ray energy registered during this flare was ∼140 MeV. Six spectral features were registered in energy spectrum of this solar flare: annihilation + αα (0.4–0.6 MeV), ²⁴Mg + ²⁰Ne + ²⁸Si + neutron capture (1.7–2.3 MeV), ²¹Ne + ²²Ne + ¹⁶O + ¹²С (3.2–5.0 MeV), ¹⁶O (5.3–6.9 MeV), one from neutral pions decay (25–110 MeV) and one in energy band 15–21 MeV. Four of them contain typical for solar flares lines – annihilation, nuclear de-excitation and neutron capture at ¹H. Spectral feature caused by neutral pions decay was registered during several flares too. Some spectral peculiarities in the region of 15–21 MeV were first observed in solar flare energy spectrum.     

Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) and comparison with IRI model during descending phase of solar activity (2005–2009)

The ionospheric variability at equatorial and low latitude region is known to be extreme as compared to mid latitude region. In this study the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), is derived by analyzing dual frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) data recorded at two stations separated by 325 km near the Indian equatorial anomaly region, Varanasi (Geog latitude 25°, 16^/ N, longitude 82°, 59^/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 16°, 08^/ N) and Kanpur (Geog latitude 26°, 18^/ N, longitude 80°, 12^/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 17°, 18^/ N). Specifically, we studied monthly, seasonal and annual variations as well as solar and geomagnetic effects on the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) during the descending phase of solar activity from 2005 to 2009. It is found that the maximum TEC (EIA) near equatorial anomaly crest yield their maximum values during the equinox months and their minimum values during the summer. Using monthly averaged peak magnitude of TEC, a clear semi-annual variation is seen with two maxima occurring in both spring and autumn. Results also showed the presence of winter anomaly or seasonal anomaly in the EIA crest throughout the period 2005–2009 only except during the deep solar minimum year 2007–2008. The correlation analysis indicate that the variation of EIA crest is more affected by solar activity compared to geomagnetic activity with maximum dependence on the solar EUV flux, which is attributed to direct link of EUV flux on the formation of ionosphere and main agent of the ionization. The statistical mean occurrence of EIA crest in TEC during the year from 2005 to 2009 is found to around 12:54 LT hour and at 21.12° N geographic latitude. The crest of EIA shifts towards lower latitudes and the rate of shift of the crest latitude during this period is found to be 0.87° N/per year. The comparison between IRI models with observation during this period has been made and comparison is poor with increasing solar activity with maximum difference during the year 2005.     

Morphological studies on ionospheric VHF scintillations over an Indian low latitude station during a solar cycle period (2001–2010)

The amplitude scintillations data recorded at 244 MHz from the geostationary satellite, FLEETSAT (73°E) at a low latitude station, Waltair (17.7°N, 83.3°E) during the ten year period of high to low solar activity from 2001 to 2010 is considered to study the occurrence characteristics of the VHF scintillations. A close association between the intense scintillations on VHF signals during pre-midnight hours, associated with range type of spread-F on ionograms and a relatively weak and slow fading scintillations during post-midnight hours associated with frequency type of spread-F is observed during the relatively high sunspot years from 2001 to 2004, whereas during the low sunspot years from 2005 to 2010 the scintillation activity as well as spread-F activity are found to be minimum. During both the high and low sunspot years, it is observed that the maximum scintillation activity occurs during equinoctial months followed by winter with the minimum occurrence during summer months. The annual mean percentage occurrence of scintillations is found to be clearly associated with the variations in the annual mean sunspot number. The nocturnal variations in the occurrence of scintillations show the onset of scintillation activity starts from 19:00 h LT with maximum of occurrence around 21:00 h LT. A clear semiannual variation in the occurrence of scintillations is observed during pre-midnight hours with two peaks in equinoctial months of March/April and September/October. The number of scintillation patches observed is found to be more during pre-midnight hours compared to those during post-midnight hours. The most probable scintillation patch duration lies around 30 min. Further, it is also found that the number of scintillation patches with durations of 60 min and more decreases with the increase in the patch duration. It is also observed in general that the scintillation activity is inhibited during geomagnetic disturbed days.     

Possible influence of solar extreme events and related geomagnetic disturbances on human cardio-vascular state: Results of collaborative Bulgarian–Azerbaijani studies

This collaborative study is based on the analysis and comparison of results of coordinated experimental investigations conducted in Bulgaria and Azerbaijan for revealing a possible influence of solar activity changes and related geomagnetic activity variations on the human cardio-vascular state. Arterial blood pressure and heart rate of 86 healthy volunteers were measured on working days during a period of comparatively high solar and geomagnetic activity (2799 measurements in autumn 2001 and spring 2002) in Sofia. Daily experimental investigations of parameters of cardio-vascular health state were performed in Azerbaijan with a permanent group of examined persons. Heart rate and electrocardiograms were digitally registered (in total 1532 records) for seven functionally healthy persons on working days and Saturdays, in the Laboratory of Heliobiology at the Medical Center INAM in Baku, from 15.07.2006 to 13.11.2007. Obtained digital recordings were subjected to medical, statistical and spectral analyses. Special attention was paid to effects of solar extreme events, particularly those of November 2001 and December 2006. The statistical method of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc analysis were applied to check the significance of the influence of geomagnetic activity on the cardio-vascular parameters under consideration. Results revealed statistically significant increments for the mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure values of the group with geomagnetic activity increase. Arterial blood pressure values started increasing two days prior to geomagnetic storms and kept their high values up to two days after the storms. Heart rate reaction was ambiguous and not significant for healthy persons examined (for both groups) under conditions with geomagnetic activity changes. It is concluded that heart rate for healthy persons at middle latitudes can be considered as a more stable physiological parameter which is not so sensitive to environmental changes while the dynamics of arterial blood pressure reveals a compensatory reaction of the human organism for adaptation.     

Characterization of GNSS scintillations over Lagos,Nigeria during the minimum and ascending phases (2009–2011) of solar cycle 24

This study characterizes equatorial scintillations at L-band frequency over Lagos, Nigeria during the minimum and ascending phases of solar cycle 24. Three years (2009–2011) of amplitude scintillation data were used for the investigation. The data were grouped on daily, monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales at three levels of scintillation (weak (0.3 ? S₄ < 0.4), moderate (0.4 ? S₄ < 0.7), and intense (S₄ ? 0.7)). To ensure reliable statistical inferences, three data cut-off criteria were adopted. Scintillations were observed to have a daily trend of occurrence during the hours of 1900–0200 LT, and higher levels of scintillations were localized within the hours of 2000–2300 LT. On monthly basis, September and October recorded the highest occurrences of scintillation, while January recorded the least. Scintillations were recorded during all the months of 2011, except January. Surprisingly, pockets of scintillation events (weak levels) were also observed during the summer months (May, June, and July). Seasonally, equinoxes recorded the highest occurrences of scintillation, while June solstice recorded the least occurrences. Scintillation activity also increases with solar and geomagnetic activity. On a scintillation active day, the number of satellites available to the receiver’s view reduces as the duration of observation reduces. These results may support the development of future models that could provide real-time predictability of African equatorial scintillations, with a view to supporting the implementation of GNSS-based navigation for aviation applications in Africa.