Theoretical simulation of electron density and temperature distribution at Indian equatorial and low latitude ionosphere

The electron density and temperature distribution of the equatorial and low latitude ionosphere in the Indian sector has been investigated by simultaneously solving the continuity, momentum and energy balance equations of ion and electron flux along geomagnetic field lines from the Northern to the Southern hemisphere. Model algorithm is presented and results are compared with the electron density and electron temperature measured in situ by Indian SROSS C2 satellite at an altitude of ∼500 km within 31°S–34°N and 75 ± 10°E that covers the Indian sector during a period of low solar activity. Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) observed in electron density, morning and afternoon enhancements, equatorial trough in electron temperature have been simulated by the model within reasonable limits of accuracy besides reproducing other normal diurnal features of density and temperature.     

Temperature comparison between CHAMP radio occultation and TIMED/SABER measurements in the lower stratosphere

Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver on the CHAllenging Mini-satellite Payload (CHAMP) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, one of four on board the TIMED satellite, provide middle atmosphere temperature profiles by Radio Occultation (RO) and limb viewing infrared emission measurements, respectively. These temperature profiles retrieved by two different techniques in the stratosphere are compared with each other using more than 1300 correlative profiles in March, September and December 2005. The over-all mean differences averaged over 15 and 35 km are approximately −2 K and standard deviation is less than 3 K. Below 20 km of altitude, relatively small mean temperature differences ∼1 K are observed in wide latitudinal range except for June (during the SABER nighttime observation). In the middle to low latitudes, between 30°S and 30°N, the temperature difference increases with height from ∼0–1 K at 15 km, to ∼−4 K at 35 km of altitude. Large temperature differences about −4 to −6 K are observed between 60°S and 30°N and 31–35 km of altitude for all months and between 0° and 30°N below 16 km during June (nighttime).     

Sodium lidar measurements of mesopause region temperatures at 23° S

A sodium lidar, capable of measuring temperature in the 80–100 km region, has been in operation at São José dos Campos (23° S, 46 W) since March 2007. Good quality data have been obtained for late autumn, winter and spring, but weather conditions make it extremely difficult to make measurements from mid-November to mid- February. We find the temperature structure to be strongly modulated by tides and gravity waves, but average profiles typically show a primary mesopause height close to 100 km with temperatures around 180 K, and a tendency for a secondary minimum of about 185 K to occur close to 90 km. Vertical temperature gradients greater than 50 K/km are sometimes seen even on profiles averaged over several hours. The strongest gradients are always positive and are frequently associated with strong gradients in sodium concentration. On the other hand, we frequently see rapid changes in the temperature profile, suggesting that models and non-local temperature measurements, as made by satellite radiometers, for example, are of little use in applications such as the analysis of gravity wave propagation seen in airglow images.     

Wave perturbations in the MLT at high northern latitudes in winter,observed by two SATI instruments

To investigate the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region, several ground-based instruments called SATI (Spectral Airglow Temperature Imager) were designed and built to measure airglow emission and temperature in the upper mesosphere. One SATI instrument was installed at Resolute Bay (74.7°N, 94.9°W) and has monitored the polar MLT region since November, 2001. In October 2007 another SATI instrument was installed at Eureka (80.0°N, 86.3°W) at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) as part of the Canadian Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Change (CANDAC) project. SATI is a spatial scanning Fabry–Perot spectrometer measuring column emission rates for several rotational lines of OH and O₂ airglow at 87 and 94 km height. The rotational temperatures are inferred from the ratios of these lines. The measurements are divided into 12 sectors with an annular field of view. The phase differences between the sectors yield information on the horizontal atmospheric wave direction and wavelength. Horizontal perturbations of 2–8 h period have correlatively been observed and investigated at both locations. Short-periodic oscillations identified as gravity waves with periods between 2 and 8 h propagate in southward and eastward directions, but in opposite directions in some cases. The wave propagation characteristics are often different at the two locations; the relationship with the lower mean wind is considered.     

Ozone trends in the mid-latitude stratopause region based on microwave measurements at Lindau (51.66° N, 10.13° E), the ozone reference model,and model calculations

We compared 8 years of ozone measurements taken at Lindau (51.66° N, 10.13° E) at altitudes between 40 and 60 km using the microwave technique with the CIRA ozone reference model that was established 20 years ago (Keating et al., 1990). We observed a remarkable decrease in ozone density in the stratopause region (i.e., an altitude of 50 km), but the decrease in ozone density in the middle mesosphere (i.e., up to 60 km in altitude) is slight. Likewise, we observed only a moderate decrease in the atmospheric region below the stratopause. Other studies have found the strongest ozone decrease at 40 km and a more moderate decrease at 50 km, which is somewhat in contradiction to our results. This decrease in ozone density also strongly depends on the season. Similar results showed model calculations using the GCM COMMA-IAP when considering the increase in methane. In the lower mesosphere/stratopause region, the strongest impact on the concentration of odd oxygen (i.e., O₃ and O) was observed due to a catalytic cycle that destroys odd oxygen, including atomic oxygen and hydrogen radicals. The hydrogen radicals mainly result from an increase in water vapor with the growing anthropogenic release of methane. The finding suggesting that the stratopause region is apparently attacked more strongly by the water vapor increase has been interpreted in terms of the action of this catalytic cycle, which is most effective near the stratopause and amplified by a positive feedback between the ozone column density and the ozone dissociation rate, thereby chemically influencing the ozone density. However, the rising carbon dioxide concentration cools the middle atmosphere, thereby damping the ozone decline by hydrogen radicals.     

Surface temperature estimation in Singhbhum Shear Zone of India using Landsat-7 ETM+ thermal infrared data

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important factor in global change studies, heat balance and as control for climate change. A comparative study of LST over parts of the Singhbhum Shear Zone in India was undertaken using various emissivity and temperature retrieval algorithms applied on visible and near infrared (VNIR), and thermal infrared (TIR) bands of high resolution Landsat-7 ETM+ imagery. LST results obtained from satellite data of October 26, 2001 and November 2, 2001 through various algorithms were validated with ground measurements collected during satellite overpass. In addition, LST products of MODIS and ASTER were compared with Landsat-7 ETM+ and ground truth data to explore the possibility of using multi-sensor approach in LST monitoring. An image-based dark object subtraction (DOS3) algorithm, which is yet to be tested for LST retrieval, was applied on VNIR bands to obtain atmospheric corrected surface reflectance images. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was estimated from VNIR reflectance image. Various surface emissivity retrieval algorithms based on NDVI and vegetation proportion were applied to ascertain emissivities of the various land cover categories in the study area in the spectral range of 10.4–12.5 μm. A minimum emissivity value of about 0.95 was observed over the reflective rock body with a maximum of about 0.99 over dense forest. A strong correlation was established between Landsat ETM+ reflectance band 3 and emissivity. Single channel based algorithms were adopted for surface radiance and brightness temperature. Finally, emissivity correction was applied on ‘brightness temperature’ to obtain LST. Estimated LST values obtained from various algorithms were compared with field ground measurements for different land cover categories. LST values obtained after using Valor’s emissivity and single channel equations were best correlated with ground truth temperature. Minimum LST is observed over dense forest as about 26 °C and maximum LST is observed over rock body of about 38 °C. The estimated LST showed that rock bodies, bare soils and built-up areas exhibit higher surface temperatures, while water bodies, agricultural croplands and dense vegetations have lower surface temperatures during the daytime. The accuracy of the estimated LST was within ±2 °C. LST comparison of ASTER and MODIS with Landsat has a maximum difference of 2 °C. Strong correlation was found between LST and spectral radiance of band 6 of Landsat-7 ETM+. Result corroborates the fact that surface temperatures over land use/land cover types are greatly influenced by the amount of vegetation present.     

Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) and comparison with IRI model during descending phase of solar activity (2005–2009)

The ionospheric variability at equatorial and low latitude region is known to be extreme as compared to mid latitude region. In this study the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), is derived by analyzing dual frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) data recorded at two stations separated by 325 km near the Indian equatorial anomaly region, Varanasi (Geog latitude 25°, 16^/ N, longitude 82°, 59^/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 16°, 08^/ N) and Kanpur (Geog latitude 26°, 18^/ N, longitude 80°, 12^/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 17°, 18^/ N). Specifically, we studied monthly, seasonal and annual variations as well as solar and geomagnetic effects on the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) during the descending phase of solar activity from 2005 to 2009. It is found that the maximum TEC (EIA) near equatorial anomaly crest yield their maximum values during the equinox months and their minimum values during the summer. Using monthly averaged peak magnitude of TEC, a clear semi-annual variation is seen with two maxima occurring in both spring and autumn. Results also showed the presence of winter anomaly or seasonal anomaly in the EIA crest throughout the period 2005–2009 only except during the deep solar minimum year 2007–2008. The correlation analysis indicate that the variation of EIA crest is more affected by solar activity compared to geomagnetic activity with maximum dependence on the solar EUV flux, which is attributed to direct link of EUV flux on the formation of ionosphere and main agent of the ionization. The statistical mean occurrence of EIA crest in TEC during the year from 2005 to 2009 is found to around 12:54 LT hour and at 21.12° N geographic latitude. The crest of EIA shifts towards lower latitudes and the rate of shift of the crest latitude during this period is found to be 0.87° N/per year. The comparison between IRI models with observation during this period has been made and comparison is poor with increasing solar activity with maximum difference during the year 2005.     

Measurement of mesopause temperature from hydroxyl nightglow at Kolhapur (16.8°N, 74.2°E), India

The paper reports the nightglow observations of hydroxyl (8–3), (7–2) and (6–2) Meinel band carried out at a low latitude station Kolhapur (16.8°N, 74.2°E, dip latitude 10.6°N), India during November 2002 to May 2005 with the objective of investigating mesopause dynamics based on derived OH rotational temperature. Overall, 132 nights of quality data were collected using filter-tilting photometer and an all-sky scanning photometer. The mean mesopause temperature observed at Kolhapur is 195 ± 11, 196 ± 9 and 195 ± 7 K from OH (8–3), (7–2) and (6–2) band emissions, respectively, using transition probabilities given by Langhoff et al. [Langhoff, S.R., Werner, H.J., Rosmus, P. Theoretical transition probabilities for the OH Meinel system. Journal of Molecular Spectroscopy 118, 507–529, 1986]. Small wave-like variations (periodicities ∼ few hours) existing over long period variations in derived temperatures are also present. A steady decrease of emission intensities from evening to dawn hours has been observed in approximately 59% of nights. No significant change of nightly mean temperatures has been noted. Furthermore, about 62% of observed nightly mean temperatures lie within one error bar of MSISE-90 model predictions.     

Evidence for the lowering of the centroid of daytime thermospheric O(D) 630.0 nm emission over the magnetic equator: First results

It is shown in this paper for the first time that the intensity of the daytime thermospheric O(¹D) 630.0 nm airglow as measured by the ground-based dayglow photometer over Trivandrum (8.5°N; 77°E; dip lat. 0.5°N), a geomagnetic dip equatorial station, exhibit a direct correlation with the electron density at 180 km. This altitude is about ∼40 km lower than the believed centroid of the O(¹D) 630.0 nm dayglow emission i.e. 220 km. This observation is contrary to the understanding of the behavior of O(¹D) 630.0 nm dayglow over equatorial/low latitudes. Over these latitudes, the variations of the measured intensity of O(¹D) 630.0 nm dayglow are known to be associated with the changes in the electron density at altitudes around 220 km, the centroid of this emission. In this context, the present results indicating the lowering of the peak altitude of O(¹D) 630.0 nm emission from ∼220 to ∼180 km over the dip equator is new. Recent results on solar XUV flux indicate that this could be an important parameter that controls the O(¹D) 630.0 nm dayglow excitation rates through modulations in the neutral and ionic composition in lower thermosphere-ionosphere region. However, the lowering of the centroid of O(¹D) 630.0 nm emission, as shown in this study, has been ascribed primarily to the fountain effect associated with the equatorial ionization anomaly.     

Response of low latitude D-region ionosphere to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 deduced from ELF/VLF analysis

Response of the D-region of the ionosphere to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 at low latitude, Varanasi (Geog. lat., 25.27° N; Geog. long., 82.98° E; Geomag. lat. = 14° 55’ N) was investigated using ELF/VLF radio signal. Tweeks, a naturally occurring VLF signal and radio signals from various VLF navigational transmitters are first time used simultaneously to study the effect of total solar eclipse (TSE). Tweeks occurrence is a nighttime phenomena but the obscuration of solar disc during TSE in early morning leads to tweek occurrence. The changes in D-region ionospheric VLF reflection heights (h) and electron density (n_e: 22.6–24.6 cm⁻³) during eclipse have been estimated from tweek analysis. The reflection height increased from ∼89 km from the first occurrence of tweek to about ∼93 km at the totality and then decreased to ∼88 km at the end of the eclipse, suggesting significant increase in tweek reflection height of about 5.5 km during the eclipse. The reflection heights at the time of totality during TSE are found to be less by 2–3 km as compared to the usual nighttime tweek reflection heights. This is due to partial nighttime condition created by TSE. A significant increase of 3 dB in the strength of the amplitude of VLF signal of 22.2 kHz transmitted from JJI-Japan is observed around the time of the total solar eclipse (TSE) as compared to a normal day. The modeled electron density height profile of the lower ionosphere depicts linear variation in the electron density with respect to solar radiation as observed by tweek analysis also. These low latitude ionospheric perturbations on the eclipse day are discussed and compared with other normal days.     

Comparison of mesopause region meteor radar winds,medium frequency radar winds and low frequency drifts over Germany

During 2004 and 2005 measurements of mesospheric/lower thermospheric (80–100 km) winds have been carried out in Germany using three different ground-based systems, namely a meteor radar (36.2 MHz) at the Collm Observatory (51.3°N, 13°E), a MF radar (3.18 MHz) at Juliusruh (54.6°N, 13.4°E) and the LF D1 measurements using a transmitter (177 kHz) at Zehlendorf near Berlin and receivers at Collm with the reflection point at 52.1°N, 13.2°E. This provides the possibility of comparing the results of different radar systems in nearly the same measuring volume. Meteor radar winds are generally stronger than the winds observed by MF and especially by LF radars. This difference is small near 80 km but increases with height. The difference between meteor radar and medium frequency radar winds is larger during winter than during summer, which might indicate an indirect influence of gravity waves on spaced antenna measurements.     

A morphological study of GPS-TEC data at Agra and their comparison with the IRI model

The temporal and seasonal variations of Total Electron Content (TEC) are studied at Agra (Geographic Lat. 27.17°N, Long. 78.89°E, Dip: 41.4°), India, which is in the equatorial anomaly region, for a period of 12 months from 01 January to 31 December, 2007 using a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. The mean TEC values show a minimum at 0500 h LT (LT = UT + 5.5 h) and a peak value at about 1400 h LT. The lowest TEC values are observed in winter whereas largest values are observed in equinox and summer. Anomalous variations are found during the period of magnetic disturbances. These results are compared with the TEC derived from IRI-2007 using three different options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr, and IRI-2001. A good agreement is found between the TEC obtained at Agra and those derived from IRI models.     

Response of the EIA ionosphere to the 7-8 May 2005 geomagnetic storm

In this paper, response of low latitude ionosphere to a moderate geomagnetic storm of 7–8 May 2005 (SSC: 1920 UT on 7 May with Sym-H minimum, ∼−112 nT around 1600 UT on 8 May) has been investigated using the GPS measurements from a near EIA crest region, Rajkot (Geog. 22.29°N, 70.74°E, Geomag.14°), India. We found a decrease in total electron content (TEC) in 12 h after the onset of the storm, an increase during and after 6 h of Sym-H deep minimum with a decrease below its usual-day level on the second day during the recovery phase of the storm. On 8 May, an increase of TEC is observed after sunset and during post-midnight hours (maximum up to 170%) with the formation of ionospheric plasma bubbles followed by a nearly simultaneous onset of scintillations at L-band frequencies following the time of rapid decrease in Sym-H index (−30 nT/h around 1300 UT).     

Response of the mesopause temperatures to solar activity over Yakutia in 1999–2013

OH(6-2) rotational temperature trends and solar cycle effects are studied. Observations were carried out at the Maimaga station (63.04°N, 129.51°E) for the period August 1999 to March 2013. Measurements were conducted with an infrared spectrograph. Temperatures were determined from intensity ratios in the P branch of the OH band. The monthly average residuals of temperature after the subtraction of the mean seasonal variation were used for a search for the solar component of temperature response. The dependence of temperatures on solar activity has been investigated using the Ottawa 10.7 cm flux as a proxy. A linear regression fitting on residual temperatures yields a solar cycle coefficient of 4.24 ± 1.39 K/100 solar flux units (SFU). The cross-correlation analyses showed that changes of the residual temperature follow changes of solar activity with a quasi-two year delay (25 months). The temperature response at the delay of 25 months reaches 7 K/100 SFU. The possible reason of the observed delay can be an influence of quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of the atmosphere on the relation of temperature and solar activity. The value of the temperature trend after the subtraction of seasonal and solar components is not statistically significant.     

Morphological studies on ionospheric VHF scintillations over an Indian low latitude station during a solar cycle period (2001–2010)

The amplitude scintillations data recorded at 244 MHz from the geostationary satellite, FLEETSAT (73°E) at a low latitude station, Waltair (17.7°N, 83.3°E) during the ten year period of high to low solar activity from 2001 to 2010 is considered to study the occurrence characteristics of the VHF scintillations. A close association between the intense scintillations on VHF signals during pre-midnight hours, associated with range type of spread-F on ionograms and a relatively weak and slow fading scintillations during post-midnight hours associated with frequency type of spread-F is observed during the relatively high sunspot years from 2001 to 2004, whereas during the low sunspot years from 2005 to 2010 the scintillation activity as well as spread-F activity are found to be minimum. During both the high and low sunspot years, it is observed that the maximum scintillation activity occurs during equinoctial months followed by winter with the minimum occurrence during summer months. The annual mean percentage occurrence of scintillations is found to be clearly associated with the variations in the annual mean sunspot number. The nocturnal variations in the occurrence of scintillations show the onset of scintillation activity starts from 19:00 h LT with maximum of occurrence around 21:00 h LT. A clear semiannual variation in the occurrence of scintillations is observed during pre-midnight hours with two peaks in equinoctial months of March/April and September/October. The number of scintillation patches observed is found to be more during pre-midnight hours compared to those during post-midnight hours. The most probable scintillation patch duration lies around 30 min. Further, it is also found that the number of scintillation patches with durations of 60 min and more decreases with the increase in the patch duration. It is also observed in general that the scintillation activity is inhibited during geomagnetic disturbed days.     

Difficulties in the study of cosmic radio noise absorption at 30 MHz using riometer at low latitude station,Kolhapur (Lat-16.8°N,Long-74.25°E)

A dual dipole antenna has been installed at low latitude station Kolhapur (Geographic 16.8°N, 74.25°E), Maharashtra, India for the study of cosmic radio noise absorption using Solid State Riometer (which operates at 30 MHz) during pre phase of 24th solar maxima. The aim for this type of study over Kolhapur was to know the response of lower (D region) ionosphere over low latitude by cosmic radio noise absorption using riometer technique during quite period as well as sudden ionospheric disturbances (SID). The observations are being taken for 3 years. Two different sites (∼40 km away from each other) were used for the installation of riometer equipment assuming minimum local noise. It is found that solar noise to cosmic radio noise hence resulting in signal saturation. The night time signal is relatively free of interference but sometimes local noise is responsible for spike-like signatures. Hence it is concluded that Kolhapur (a low latitude station) is not suitable for the study of cosmic radio noise absorption on 30 MHz with riometer and dual dipole antenna. Proper choice for operating frequency of riometer and antenna gain is suggested for low latitude use of this technique for ionospheric deviative and nondeviative absorption studies.     

Solar cycle effect on temporal and spatial variation of topside ion density measured by SROSS C2 and ROCSAT 1 over the Indian longitude sector

We investigated the diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations of ion density Ni over the Indian low and equatorial topside ionosphere within 17.5°S to 17.5°N magnetic latitudes by combining the data from SROSS C2 and ROCSAT 1 for the 9 year period from 1995 to 2003 during solar cycle 23. The diurnal maximum density is found in the local noon or in the afternoon hours and the minimum occurs in the pre sunrise hours. The density is higher during the equinoxes as compared to that in the June and December solstice. The local time spread of the daytime maximum ion density increases with increase in solar activity. A north south asymmetry with higher ion density over northern hemisphere in the June solstice and over southern hemisphere in December solstice has been observed in moderate and high solar activity years. The crest to crest distance increases with increase in solar flux. Ion density bears a nonlinear relationship with F_10.7 cm solar flux and EUV flux in general. The density increases linearly with solar flux up to ∼150 sfu (1 sfu = 10⁻²²Wm⁻²Hz⁻¹) and EUV flux up to ∼50 units (10⁹ photons cm⁻² s⁻¹). But beyond this the density saturates. Inverse saturation and linear relationship have been observed in some season or latitude also. Inter-comparison of the three solar activity indices F_10.7 cm flux, EUV flux and F_10.7P (= (F_10.7 + F_10.7A)/2, where F_10.7A is the 81 day running average value of F_10.7) shows that the ion density correlates better with F_10.7P and F_10.7 cm fluxes. The annual average daytime total ion density from 1995 to 2003 follows a hysteresis loop as the solar cycle reverses. The ion density at 500 km over the Indian longitude sector as obtained by the international reference ionosphere is in general lower than the measured densities during moderate and high solar activity years. In low solar activity years the model densities are equal or higher than measured densities. The IRI EIA peaks are symmetric (±10°) in equinox while densities are higher at 10°N in June solstice and at 10°S in the December solstice. The model density follows F_10.7 linearly up to about F_10.7 > ∼150 sfu and then saturates.     

Polarization pattern of low and mid-frequency magnetic pulsations in the polar cap: A comprehensive analysis at Terra Nova Bay (Antarctica)

The polarization pattern of ULF pulsations (f ≈ 1–100 mHz) at Terra Nova Bay (Antarctica, CGM λ ∼ 80°) has been determined for the entire 2003, soon after the solar maximum. A comparison with the results of previous investigations, conducted at the same station close to the solar minimum (1994–96), allows to focus common elements and major differences among different frequency bands which persist through the entire solar cycle. Basically, between f ∼ 1.5 and 5 mHz, the day can be divided into four sectors with alternate polarizations. The local time and latitudinal dependence of the observed pattern can be tentatively interpreted in terms of a latitude of resonant field lines reaching λ ∼ 80° in the noon sector; on the other hand, resonance effects of lower latitude field lines can be clearly identified also far from the noon meridian when the station moves into the deep polar cap. Moreover, in the morning sector the resonance region would extend to lower latitudes than in the evening sector. The proposed profile of the resonant region can interpret also the results obtained at other cusp/auroral stations and appears consistent with that one inferred in the northern hemisphere at smaller latitudes. The resonance region progressively shifts toward lower latitude with increasing frequency; correspondingly, the four-sector pattern progressively disappears at TNB. Above f ∼ 20 mHz, the experimental observations might suggest an additional contribution from Sunward propagating waves, possibly via the magnetotail lobes.     

Change in refractivity of the atmosphere and large variation in TEC associated with some earthquakes,observed from GPS receiver

The present study reports the analysis of GPS based TEC for our station Surat (21.16°N, 72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region in India at times close to some earthquake events (M ? 5) during the year 2009 in India and its neighbouring regions. The TEC data used in the study are obtained from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitoring (GISTM) system. The TEC data has been analysed corresponding to 11 earthquakes in low solar activity period and quiet geomagnetic condition. We found that, out of 11 cases of earthquakes (M > 5) there were seven cases in which enhancement in TEC occurred on earthquake day and in other four cases there was depletion in TEC on earthquake day. The variation in refractivity prior to earthquake was significant for the cases in which the epicentre lied within a distance of 600 km from the receiving station. By looking into the features on temporal enhancement and depletion of TEC a prediction was made 3–2 days prior to an earthquake (on 28 October 2009 in Bhuj – India). The paper includes a brief discussion on the method of potentially identifying an impending earthquake from ionospheric data.     

Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century

The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ΔT_solar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ΔT_man = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.